If the savings made are greater than or equal to any penalties for taking the Harrier and Tornado out of service earlier than planned I think it is a strong possibility.
The T1 Typhoons do concern me though. I have heard statements that buyers are being sort but as a pay off for reducing FJ numbers and putting off a F-35 order wouldn’t it make more sense to try to bring these up to T2 standard. Also why do many people especially the press keep going on about it being a Cold War relic. I have always thought of the Typhoon as an F-16/F-18 on steroids. If the budget hadn’t been messed about with the Typhoon fleet would now be at a higher capability level but it is a classic case of save a little now and paying a larger bill later on. Spares had to be robbed of the production line to keep the T1 birds flying causing some production delays, and the delivery schedule has been a joke.
So rather than emulate the USMC we are probably going to go down the path Canada has followed with a unified armed forces. However I believe since that policy was introduced each branch of the Canadian military as developed is own identity more and more.
I wonder if there are any sacred cow that are immune to a combined military. Will there still be three officer training colleges or will only one survive. The tail end has pretty much been combined so it really leaves the frontline and headquarters. Regarding the latter this is an area many agree will happen but the former is going to be much more difficult. We already have joint helicopter, air defence and NBC units. Prime targets could be the RM and RAF Regiment.
My main concern is that although I believe there are issues that need immediate attention in the short term, the only areas that are going to see any benefits from the SDR are those directly relevant to Afghanistan. Programmes that are actually in production should be safe or at least suffer only minor cuts, but it is going to be longer term programmes that will be dropped or delayed. The F-35 should survive but at only 60-70 purchased. In fact the RAF seems to be the major target, with the RNs major programmes such as the CVF and new FFGs safe, but the latter will have minimum impact on the budget over the next few years. So that leave further cuts in the fast jet force, probably seeing the Tornado force cut in half by 2015 as the Typhoons come on stream being totally phased out along with the remaining Harriers by 2020 with the introduction of the F-35. That would leave the UKs fast jet strength at between 9 and 12 squadrons. Barely enough to meet its existing committments but then again it has been stated that all committments bar one are up for re-evaluation.
In the end I see the UKs Armed Forces being turned into a “Fire Brigade” able to deploy force rapidly for a short term operation but not for long term operations like we are currently involved in in Afghanistan, that will be the job for others.
I agree the Persian Gulf is one of the likeliest senarios. However the USN has operated in the area for decades and is never “Relaxed” when operating in or near it. I do agree though that if Iran suddernly launched an attack at a CVBG in the Gulf propper then yes there is a fair chance of the CVBG been badly damaged. That said the US would take that as an act of war and the damage that would be inflicted on the agreeor would be out of all proportion to the damage to the CVBG. No nation is more dangerous than when the US is actually hurt! So no sane nation would try this senario but then again the leadership in Iran do not fall into this catagory.
The key world in the arguement is “Ambush” which is unlikely given the evidence. First it would have to be from a source that was not class as a threat by the CVBG like a NATO Ally and second the CVBG would have to be stood down and near a coast line. None of the above are likely.
One of the main problems with Kormoran 2 is its range, only 35Km putting the launch aircraft well inside the CVBG exclusion zone. Soviet plans used longer range high speed missiles allowing the launch aircraft some chance to get away.
Yes the Forrestal was badly damaged by a fire from a Zuni rocket misfiring on deck but the USN leasrnt many lessons from that incident regarding Damage Control.
As I have said before a CVBG is not invincible but the assets required to launch a successfull attack and the losses that would be incurred make it a very hard nut to crack
I am quite intrigued buy the idea of basing the UK Armed Forces on those of the USMC forming a single service. However currently the UK does not have the equipment to do this and it would require substantial investment to achieve. For example just one of the USMCs Expeditionalry Froces of which thare are three comprises of;
12 Armoured Infantry Battalions
1 Tank Battalion
3 Artillery (Gun) Battalion
1 Artillery (MLRS) Battalion
2 Medium Armoured/Recce Battalions
1 Air Defence Battalion
6 Medium Helicopter Squadrons
4 Heavy Helicopter Squadrons
4 Fighter/Ground Attack/Recce Squadrons
4 Ground Attack/Recce Squadrons
2 UAV Squadrons
4 LHDs
4 LSDs
4 LPDs
4 CG
4 DDG
4 FFG
4 SSN
Plus additional Naval Escorts and support units. It is not too hard to see the holes we would have to fill to feild eveon one equivilent formation!
Again numbers is the key thing here. With each Tornado IDS only carrying 2 Kormoran 2 missiles, to hurt a Carrier you are going to need multiple hits due to the size of the warhead. Add to this its short range 35km you are going to need alot of Tornadoes to get in close and fire enough to do the job.
RAF Tornados didn’t train to hit a CVBG but rather Soviet groups with nowhere near the level of defences the former have/had. In addition the Sea Eagle had almost 4x the range. Yes multi-directional attacks would be effective against the latter threat. Tornado pilots actually preferred their old Buccaneers which could carry twice the number of ASMs and a more effective platform in the role.
Unfortunately sending a plane to follow a E-2 home is really a non starter as unless we are talking a MPA, the ESM on the E-2 will outperform those on that following it, detecting any comms sent regarding the CVBGs location. Remember the E-2 and the CVBG for the matter are using passive ESM not their radars at this point. If they go active the current E-2 is very effective at tracking targets of all sizes at all altitudes and will be passing this info to the carrier by Link so the CVBG is still “Quiet”!
If it feels it has been detected the CVBG will first take actions to get lost again and increase its CAP. By the way where are the Typhoons comming from?
FRADU are responsible for aerial fleet defence training. They use Falcon business jets for ECM training as well as simulating larger attacking planes. For fast jets they use Hawks and these are also used to simulate ASMs. In the latter case they fly in close formation with a Falcon they when “Launched” pull away and drop down to sea level and go hell for leather towards the target. The pilots say it is a fun job. Prior to the hawks they used single and twin hunters, recognisable by the light in the nose.
How many Kormorans would it take to “Disable a US Carrier? Answer a lot!. You would need at least five times as many Tornadoes to carry out any attack that has the slimest chances of success, in other words the whole of MFG 1 or 2 If the CVBG is operating under EmCon it is still looking out for enemy electronic emissions and how are the enemy going to find the CVBG without using its radars. As soon as these are detected by the E-2s they will vector F-18s towards the incomming attack whilst passing info to the CVBG. Any enemy that leak through with cause the CVBG escorts to go active and engage.
Another issue is where is this sat info comming from? Is it real time? The US tracks all satelites in orbit and would know when a Recon satalite passed over the CVBG.
I certainly wouldn’t want to commit my entire Tornado force in a WWII style wing and a prayer search for a CVBG using only the mark one eyeball especially at low level in bad weather. How close are they going to have to be, maximum of 6nm given the horizon at 50 feet.
In the Falkland the Argentinian had a good idea where the Task Force was as it had to be within a certain proximity to the islands. Totally different to finding a CVBG out int he ocean.
Finally the range of both Kormoran and HARM are fairy short. Kormoran was designed to be used in the Baltic and has a small warhead and Harm against fixed land sites though it does have naval applications. Also remember the CVBGs CIWS (Phalanx, RAM) can also engage both the Kormorans and HARMS.
NOBODY WANTS A WAR and no one is going to go to war nor is there a hypothetical senario with any credence for one over Gaza. Everyone loses. The Turkish military won’t fight, neither will the Egyptians, Jordanians, Saudis, Israelis or anyone. The cause of the people of Gaza is not important enough in the big picture.
By the by regarding the Royal Saudi Airforce, they could be equipped with F-22s and still not be able to fight effectively without US and UK support. Like the Royal Saudi Army they just do not have the training or experience. The only effective force they have is the National Guard which keeps tabs on the other Armed Services.
I agree with the airframe but what avionics have been installed. If it can mimic a 4th Gen platform in this area it would still be a good lead in. Look at the USAF with the T-38C. That is a really old design but it avionics have been updated to still make it a viable trainer for F-22 and F-35 drivers
Unfortunately for Israel it has little or no chance of stopping the DIY rocket attacks from Gaza whilst HAMAS is in charge. People defend HAMAS saying it is an elected Government which it was but it then imprisoned or killed all opposition gaining total control over all facets of Government and other institutions becoming a totalitarian state. Hamas is here to stay in Gaza so Isreal needs to rethink.
Cease the Naval blockade but announce that for every rocket that lands in Israel a 155mm Shell, Hellfire or 500lb LGB will hit either a Government building or an infrastructure target. Totally seal the land border with Isreal and allow no supplies whatever into Gaza leaving Egypt and the sea as the only access.
They should also allow any civilian in Gaza who wishes to move to the West Bank to do so and even provide aid and or other incentives to facilitate this. I know HAMAS will prevent civilians leaving but if they do they score an own goal.
Regarding the Turkish Prime Minister, I really think that is for internal consumption as Escalating things further will cause unrest in many countries. Turkey is approaching a mile stone where it must decide where its future lies. Is it as a secular state and part of europe and NATO or is it Islamic and not part of the above. This is going to cause a split between the urban and rural populations with the Military in the middle.
As for US sanctions and not getting the F-35, well I cannot see that deterring the Government. In addition Turkey has bought quite alot of military hardware from Russia, especially for the army over the years and Russia would love for Turkey to split from the US creating another distraction for US foreign policy, but this is a long shot.
The only nation that can change Israel attitude or at least have a chance is the US and until it changes its policy nothing will change in Gaza regardless of what the rest of the world thinks or wants.
Compared to any other combat vessels built for the RN since the 70’s the Invincibles were capital ships, though called Through Deck Cruisers to try to trick the Treasury who didn’t think the RN needed carriers but ASW cruisers with a large helicopter capacity for ASW work in the Atlantic fitted in with the RN role in NATO.
Going through my copies of Conway’s It seems the naming of RN ships has always been a random affair with only classes maintain a semblance of consistency.
Turning to armaments, although Sea Wolf was research in forms other than the 6 round launcher it would still have been a large install and very expensive. The Broad beam Leanders only had one director were a patch job at best. You could not really fit a lightweight 4 cell launcher together with director on the hanger roof to replace Sea Cat launchers though it would be feasible to fit them on larger platforms like the Counties or later T-42s at the beam position.
On land the Sea Wolf is a none starter plus Rapier was entering service eventually equipped with Blindfire. Sea Wolf again would have been too bulky and heavy with a foot print more akin to a HAWK battery.
For escorts I would have liked to see a heavily modified T-82 with the Sea Dart and 4.5 Forward, 2x Ikara amidships like the RAN Hobart and a Hanger for 2 Lynx or 1 Seaking aft. ASMs could be fitted when available making them very similar to USN escort Cruisers of the period.
Turkey is in a complicated position right now. Though a secular state it is becomming more and more religious through the back door which has caused concern to its armed forces. There is growing friction between the Government and armed forces as the latter have a duty to protect the secular state.
There is no way the Turkish military would get into a fight vs Israel even hypothetically as it has nothing to gain and if the Government tried to order it to do so there is a chance of a backlash by the military. Israel has declared its intention to maintain the blockade and intercept any vessel trying to break it. It really messed up the operation last week and handed the blockade runners a media victory but they won’t make the same mistake twice. No outside country is going to use force to break the blockade and the US will stop any UN attempts to force the lifting of it.
Until both sides realise there are benefits from talking and compromising the blockade will remain. IF outside forces try to pressure Israel they could well tighten the blockade instead of relaxing it.
If you want to look at hypothetical conflicts look at Isreal vs Egypt if the radical parties gain power there.
Yes the Luftwaffe Alphajet were given the suplimentary mission of Anti-Helicopter work but for this they only had the 27mm Mauser pod. Their main role was Anti-Armour equiped with both dumb and cluster bombs. One of the roles the SABA concept was designed for was to counter the Hind “Panic” of the 1980s and could carry 6 ASRAAM and had an internal 27mm cannon with very good low level maneoverabilty and protection for its size.
The A-10 is a great aircraft for the CAS role but has always been in the sights of the Fast Jet Mafia. Remember when they wanted to purchase A-17 equipped with a lightweight GAU-8 pod to replace the A-10.
I see a Hawk 100 carrying a Designator Pod, 2 x Paveway IV (500lb) and 4 Brimstone mod. and 2 ASRAAM as being a useful CAS platform for Low and Medium level operations. It is rugged enough to operate from austere strips and could be given AAR capability. Demonstrator models were already fitted with FLIR so would have a useable Day/night capabilty. I don’t know the going price for a Hawk 100 but compared to current 4th gen platforms it must be a bargain!
I maybe wrong but on names QUeen Elizabeth etc have historicaaly been allocated to Battleships and Heavy Cruisers and we all know what the navy is like on maintaining traditions+. Though small the Invincible class were carriers and there last incumbants of those names were also. By the way whay was Ark Royal’s original name before it was changed, I think it was either Indomitable or Indefatigable.