Don’t just blame this Government. Politicans as a whole have a very poor track record on defence, constantly moving the funding goal posts, and the Mod makes things worse by doing the same with the requirements.

I wonder if we could get those German A400s at a reduced price. It would allow the C-130Js to be retired with out a loss in capability or capacity.

Given that the current MoD procurement programme is still unaffordable, the chances of a new MRA being purchased within the next ten years is a pipe dream. I strongly suspect that the view of “Senior Military Sources” is nothing more than damage limitation on behalf of the MoD. I cannot see new money being provided to the MoD, in fact I cannot remember when the Defence Budget was increased in a meaningful way except just after the Falklands War, and that took the direct intervention of the PM to override the Treasury’s wishes.

The RAF is going to have enough on its plate trying to fund the modernsation of the Typhoon fleet, bringing into service the A400, A330 MRTT and new Chinooks together with modernising the existing fleet of the latter and the Pumas. In addition post 2015 the Army is probaly going to hold the top spot for funding as it tries to undo the damage done by the long operational deployments in Iraq and Afghanistan.

I can also see the RAF policy of maintain large numbers of stored airframes being revised. It does allow fleets to keep their hours down therefore increasing service life but funding pressures may mean that this is reduced, providing savings in the short to medium term but with reduced service life increasing long term costs as airframes run out of hours sooner. This could lead to further reductions in numbers if funding is not available for a SLEP or replacement.

And why will there be so much space on the CVFs? Oh that another arguement!

I agree that reworking the existing Sea Kings does make a lot of sense whilst the proposed HC3 conversion seems to be shaping up to be a disaster waiting to happen. The plan is probably to only deploy them when actually needed so the bare minimum of alteration swill be carried out as the platforms will go into deep maintenance after the deployment has finished. Another case of save a bit now and spend a lot later.

The MoD will have to be watched closely post Afghanistan. Do not be surprised if Helicopter numbers begin to fall as Depth Maintenance is cut and worn out platforms not brought back into service or replaced.

But I do wish the Arrow had entered service!

Has the concept of “sortie rate” gone out of the window with the recent SDSR. I thought this was one of the key drivers with regards to the size of the CVF and its airwing?

Can anyone find what the original rate was and calculate what it will be with the revised “Small” wing we are now heading for? I only ask for the small wing as it already appears that there will only be one squadron carrier qualified and current at any one time so there will be little chance of a rapid surge in numbers but rather any additional squadron will be trained up to relieve the existing one.

I am still trying t work out what Israel would have to gain for launching an attack against Iran. Very little is all I can surmise with a lot more to lose. Even though Iran is rules by a man who is generally accepted as being unstable when it come to anything Isreali, There is simply no way Iran will launch a first strike against Isreal. If they did every major city in Iran would vanish and the country would be effectively destroyed. What would Iran gain by that. Even if provoked they have little to gain as using nukes with the excuse of “They started it”, won’t win any friends.

I have to also state that the Iranian Armed forces are for from battle hardened, any more than the Iraqi Armed Forces were in GW1 or GW2. Yes they have the fanatical Revolutionary Guard, but in a conventional war this really means nothing. They do have suntantial amounts of SAMs but the vast majority of these are around Tehran and major ports and industrial sites, and are visible to satalite. The small number of SA-15 are not enough to deter an determined attack and countermeasures already exist. Iran is in a vary similar position to Iraq pre GW1. They have a large Armed Forces and a limited number of good equipment but the bulk is outdated.

The only benefit Iran gets from having a nuke is the prestige it will give them in the Arab world and a means to scare their neighbours in to not allowing foreing troops to operate from them against Iran.

Just read in Jane’s that the UK is still going to take delivery of the 3 F-35B airframes already ordered instead of swaping them for the C variant as the MoD believes there is enough commonality to make them worth while developemental platforms.