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Ginner

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  • in reply to: Finland Air Force #2142358
    Ginner
    Participant

    when UK was inducting Tornado Russia was inducting Fulcrum/Flanker that can land on carrier. UK requirements make it by itself obsolete.
    I already pointed out using the most aerodynamic efficient EW pods on Flanker with most powerfull electric.

    development time line has nothing to do with how the end product will perform 30 years later. The counter measures against Meteor will be the same what ever is against anyother missile. firing it from aerodynamically weak platform take away all its paper advantages.

    http://sputniknews.com/russia/20150615/1023369522.html#ixzz3taQpP8qa<

    Quoting Sputnik News? Seriously?

    in reply to: Finland Air Force #2142376
    Ginner
    Participant

    I think there are only three contenders: F35 for self preservation in denied airspace, Gripen E for EW and cost and the SH. The Gripen and SH work much better for dispersed basing. If there was another NATO partner willing to do weapons certification then maybe the Rafale could play. It can handle dispersed basing and has exceptional EW capabilities.

    in reply to: Canadian Fighter Replacement #2143935
    Ginner
    Participant

    The max payload, the max speed and the Radius of operation.

    Yeah I recently saw the 55k service ceiling on the EF product page as well. I was surprised by that too. I always thought it was 60k. That said, I’m pretty sure the F-15 is and has been the undisputed champ in service ceiling amongst western fighters for a very long time. That I am not surprised by.

    in reply to: Canadian Fighter Replacement #2144558
    Ginner
    Participant

    I wonder how the strongly increased pressure from soon-to-be president Trump for all NATO members to spend at least 2% of GDP will affect things in Canada? Last I checked Canada was far away from 2%.

    Me thinks they can “afford” a mix of SH and F-35 in the future, even if it is not very cost-effective.

    Our economy is much larger than Australia’s. Same for population. While we have a very different geographical challenge, Canada could easily afford to double defence spending. If you believe the government’s calculation of 1.5% of GDP (instead of the 1% the rest of the world believes it to be), there is still room for a 33% increase in spending to hit a NATO target. That 33% could cover the gap on the Surface Combatants and pretty much 80 of whatever mix of fighters we want. The money is there…the question is political will. The real constraint in Canada is recruiting. We do not have the bodies to staff an larger military. I think you will see Canada relying more and more on automation (Like the FREMM for the CSC project). Pragmatic alternatives.

    in reply to: Canadian Fighter Replacement #2145190
    Ginner
    Participant

    A mixed fleet will not happen. It will require more money to operate a mixed fleet against operating a single type. The whole point of this exercise is to save money. A Canadian Military comparative analysis made this very clear.

    http://www.forces.gc.ca/en/about-reports-pubs/mixed-fleet-en.page

    The chance of a F-18E/F purchase becomes less and less likely as the evaluation draws out. It is likely to take at least two years, and probably closer to three, to get to contract award on this. Unless Boeing gets another export of the SH then it will almost certainly be out of production by the time Canada is ready to order.

    Why are you claiming that an F-35 buy would require new runways, hangers, forward operating bases etc but not for the other airframes?

    As for operating costs, you need to also factor in the mid life upgrades of the aircraft. Looking at the options, everything but the F-35 is likely to require two upgrades for life of type while the F-35 should require only one. A common upgrade charge is somewhere between 30-50 million per airframe. Given when this occurs the F-35 will be the most numerous aircraft with the broadest support and supplier base, and likely the only airframe with any chance of still being in production, its upgrade costs will be significantly less than competitors.

    As has been stated previously, the longer this competition takes the more likely F-35 is of becoming the winner…again…

    Well a mixed fleet IS happening
    The F18 interim buy IS happening

    in reply to: Canadian Fighter Replacement #2145205
    Ginner
    Participant

    It might be worth educating yourself on how Canadian Hornets have been used operationally for the last 30 years, a hint is that most of it starts with “bomb” and ends in “ing”…

    The operational history section on the wiki page should be a good first start. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonnell_Douglas_CF-18_Hornet

    Nope. 90 percent of hours flown have been domestic. The primary mission….overwhelmingly…..has been sovreign airspace defence.

    in reply to: Canadian Fighter Replacement #2145208
    Ginner
    Participant

    enuine question : a country is legally tied to buy jets to stay in the program?

    We were never contractually obligated to buy the plane. Never happened.

    LM can negotiate whatever contracts they like after the current set expire. We have not yet rejected the plane. I suspect very little will change as they have bigger things to worry about than spinning up new suppliers. Typical F35 fear mongering.

    in reply to: Canadian Fighter Replacement #2146266
    Ginner
    Participant

    Probably although the press release also uses the term acquisition which carries the connotation of ownership against lease.

    More importantly overall, Canada will continue to remain a partner in the JSF program, from the press release,

    They also state how important the economic considerations of the replacement fighter will be.

    Assuming that while remaining in the program Canadian companies will still be able to bid for JSF work at least until a replacement aircraft decision is made. Given the timeframe, it is quite possible the economic benefits of selecting the F-35 will trump anything else, Canadian companies could well be provided with enough work from initial dev to then to have returned the entire contract value of the new acquisition.

    Canadian companies are already benefiting from the F35 program investment. The Gripen is still very much in play. The Typhoon and Rafale are out.

    in reply to: Canadian Fighter Replacement #2146268
    Ginner
    Participant

    Regardless of the nature of the transaction it is an interim solution for a fraction of the demand. If the current government is ideologically opposed to acquiring the JSF they can take irreversible action and get themselves out of the program. This will ensure that all future F-35 deals by some other government will have to go through the FMS route which will not have the industrial partnership and work-share promised to them as a partner. They had at least one opportunity to do so by simply not renewing their commitment to the JSF program which they chose not to do. An interim purchase gives them the face saving required to justify an F-35 purchase if they deem it affordable within their spending plans in the future and it also gives them the option to operate an all Super Hornet fleet by just making the interim solution permanent. All said, I see the prospects of the Gripen, Typhoon or Rafale greatly diminished by them choosing the F-18E/F as an ‘interim solution’ whether that is a lease, lease to buy or an outright purchase.

    I disagree that this eliminates the Gripen at all. There is engine commonality, low acquisition and operating costs which make a mixed fleet doable. It will be SH and Gripen or SH and F35. We shall see which. Also possible but less likely that they will go over to the SH entirely.

    in reply to: Canadian Fighter Replacement #2146277
    Ginner
    Participant

    Next few days will be interesting: Canadian aerospace & defense firms are going to fight this. They know this will impact their bidding on F-35 contracts (even though Canada is technically staying in the program by making payments). Interim buy pushes fighter competition out past 2020.
    Trudeau et al. saving face with an expensive half measure, one that will hurt Canadian companies.
    Stick with the F-35, or don’t at least get some industrial participation. This is double stupid.

    There will be no short term impact to Canadian industry and maybe none long term, unless they back out of the program all together. The F 35 is not combat ready. This was a major slap in the face for a program looking for revenue from early adopters. Very happy we did not commit to the F35 at this point.

    I am not happy that the Typhoon was not given a fair shake. This interim buy eliminates the Typhoon from consideration as it is to expensive to operate in a mixed fleet. The same can be said for the Rafale as it would need a large buy to ammortize Canadianization costs.

    At this point we are looking at a three horse race as the Gripen E will be reaching FOC about the same time as the fighter selection process completes. As I have said before (to much ridicule here) I think Canada is very likely to be operating a mixed fleet going forward. SH and the Gripen or F35. We shall we what happens in the next phase. The size of the purchase was too small in my opinion. They should have bought 36 of them. They clearly are walking the political tightrope.

    in reply to: Canadian Fighter Replacement #2175985
    Ginner
    Participant

    Actually, the F-35B is designed for exactly those sorts of operations. Don’t let that slow you down though… :rolleyes:

    See slides 37-38

    https://marinecorpsconceptsandprograms.com/sites/default/files/files/2015%20Marine%20Aviation%20Plan.pdf

    The F35B has never been considered by Canada. Irrelevant to discuss.

    in reply to: Canadian Fighter Replacement #2186744
    Ginner
    Participant

    So it looks like things are moving ahead. All 5 planes will be available when Canada purchases.

    in reply to: Canadian Fighter Replacement #2186775
    Ginner
    Participant
    in reply to: Military Aviation News #2186778
    Ginner
    Participant
    in reply to: F-35 News and discussion (2016) take III #2157352
    Ginner
    Participant

    Which tails?…how about the next ones off the line?

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 118 total)