IMO, the most straightforward and reliable way to track Chinese J-XX’s progress is to track the development of Chinese turbofan engines designed to power the fighter.
Because AVICI’s open source has already declared they won’t compromise their next generation fighter or J-xx by using any legacy 3rd gen powerplant but 4th gen engine like WS-15. And I believe the development of such a powerplant is the hardest part for AVICI to conquer.
Remember the J-11B prototype is also served as high altitude testbed for WS-10A turbofan? My guess is this time around, AVICI will play the same by utilizing the twin engine powered J-XX prototype as the high altitude testbed for WS-15.
With the confirmed designation of WS-15, AVICI has probably finalized the design of the T/W 10 grade core engine and moved into next stage of model development. If so, the rules of 5 years model, 5 years certification applies, then the WS-15 could be certificated in 2015 or 2016 if everything goes smoothly. Of course high altitude test should be carried out well before the WS-15 certification, which means the J-XX 4th fighter prototype could probably take the maiden flight before 2015!
I predict by 2010,we will see it 1st prototype of J-XX flying… 😀
In fact,WS-15 development already started last year.
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