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  • in reply to: PLA (All Forces) Missiles 2 #1786235
    YourFather
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    useful in an opening volley to try and take out USN CVNs before, say, conducting military exercises on Formosa.

    So China is going to invite the US into the conflict?

    At the outbreak of hostilities is is not likely that your average CVN will be travelling about with every electronic emitter turned off; that obliterates any hope of having a worthwhile amount of SA when hostilities kick off.

    Doesn’t quite matter. Even if China had the targeting problem solved and thry launched ASBMs without warning, the US already has an active ballistic missile defense system to handle the threat. DSPs, (or probably SBIR by then) would provide launch warning, cueing SBX, SPY-1s and TPY-2s in Japan to the ASBMs. 1st layer of defense would be SM-3, then SM-2 Blk IVs. Take long enough and you could add ABL to part of the hard kill defense. That’s not counting decoys/jamming which can be deployed due to the ample warning time.

    in reply to: PLA (All Forces) Missiles 2 #1786237
    YourFather
    Participant

    SOC, it’s more than likely that site got the figures for active and passive detection ranges inverted. The Mineral has a max active range of 180km, but a max passive range of 450km.

    Only if you are restricted to one radar frequency. Using multiple frequencies makes sense if your operating conditions are not going to be static.

    If the required conditions aren’t present, no matter how you change frequencies it won’t help.

    During midcourse, go with passive radar homing on the CVN’s air search radar.

    The devious Yanks placed SPS-49s on their Spruances, Ticos and OHPs, precisely to play havoc with Russian ELINT systems trying to detect a CVN from it’s radar transmissions.

    There are only 3 technical ways with which CVNs can be positively IDed. ISAR, ESM, Visual, or Acoustic. Which can be carried out by MPAs, Sats, or subs/underwater arrays. All of which can be deceived/eliminated. For the MPAs, especially so at the range at which it will have to operate at. That’s if, as Jonesy says, China can pour enough money to get the required number of assets, which will be very substantial for the presence required at the ranges we’re talking about.

    because something didn’t work at one point means it will never work at all.

    The problems that existed then exist now. In fact, the concept is even harder to work on a ballistic missile warhead than on a Tomahawk AShM. The targeting problem for AShBMs are very hard, so hard, in fact, that ‘some who know their ****’ call it insurmountable.

    in reply to: PLA (All Forces) Missiles 2 #1786260
    YourFather
    Participant

    Only in a world where OTH radar systems do not exist…

    They are large and vulnerable, don’t provide target identification and are atmospheric conditions dependent. They also don’t provide targeting quality coordinates. Did I also mention they are also vulnerable to deception without overlaying other sensor data?

    If you think I don’t like a Chinese ASBM system, please reconsider. Contrary to what many others may think, I sincerely hope China spends money to develop a DF-21 ASBM system. Better yet, spend money on a DF-31 ASBM system. I can see the legions of china-rah-rahs smiling with joy, and I’d be right beside them with a grin on my face. Seeing money go down the drain is exhilarating. So long as it’s not my money. 😉

    in reply to: PLA (All Forces) Missiles 2 #1786266
    YourFather
    Participant

    So lets connect the dots here….

    1)Zumwalt DDG programme just reported to be down to units-ordered only.

    2)Tico CG’s approaching end-of-life and no Clancy-esque multi-regiment, blue-water, air threat likely anywhere for the next couple of decades.

    3)CG(X) project definition phase in prolonged state of flip-flopping as DDG-1000 stole much of the CG(X) thunder.

    So the CG(X), to be relevent, needs to do something more than the DDG’s to justify its funding especially now DDG-1000 has, apparently, gone the same way as LCS.

    Suddenly there is a Washingon Times article about ‘possible’ Chinese anti-carrier ballistic missiles. Missiles that everyone knew about, and many have debunked as impractical without a shudder-inducing amount spent on radarsats, a few years back.

    Hmmm. I think I know how the PLAN can defeat the USN now. All they have to do is come out with the real story behind these ‘AShBM’s’, make it perfectly clear that they dont really have them and couldnt employ them without a huge and expensive ramp up of their ocean reconaissance assets anyway, then sit back and watch while the US Govt backs off CG(X) as well as DDG-1000!.

    But once the US stops it’s DDG-1000 and CG(X) programs, what will happen to Chinese naval ‘indigenous R&D’ programs? 😀 Gone! 😮 Anyway, 11 Arleigh Burkes upgraded with DD(X) tech in exchange for the 5 DDG-1000 (as rumours go) may not be such a bad deal…

    in reply to: 100 F-35 for Singapore #2470691
    YourFather
    Participant

    so what is this than? Economy which is entirely dependent on good times in other places have very short life.

    So bringing up any ‘doomsday’ article proves your point? Singapore is an export oriented economy, of course it will be affected by the fortunes of its customers. Doesn’t necessarily mean that it is entirely dependent on the fortunes of others though. Singapore is subject to recession and boom times just like any other country.

    it cannot outgrow developed world interms of per capita. and to afford 5 th generation they have to outgrow even West in per capita, tax revenues etc which is not possible without natural resources.

    Sorry, you have proven that you do not even understand basic economics with this statement. If what you say is true then how do you explain Singapore’s current prosperity, since it never had natural resources in the first place? Singapore already has a per capita income exceeding many countries with far greater natural resources. How do you explain that? :rolleyes: For your silly statement about the lack of natural resources? Small hint: natural resources which we lack can be bought. ‘Globalised economy’ mean anything to you?

    in reply to: 100 F-35 for Singapore #2470712
    YourFather
    Participant

    The real costs in mind, Singapore will never buy more than 50 F-35A at best.

    That’ll only be true if UCAV technologies advance rapidly enough in the next 20 to 30 years to be a viable replacement for the F-35. Money is not quite the problem.

    Fifth generation fighters by definition are not for small countries considering the business model behind singpore will not grow as China and others will enter the same industries. RMAF has palm oil and rubber to fall back.
    50 maybe good for Japan.

    That’s a rather simplistic way of predicting the economic outlook of a country. If it were that simple nobody needs economists. Hong Kong is already a strong competitor to Singapore. Singapore is still thriving. Just because China enters the scene doesn’t mean Singapore is going to lose it’s competitive edge, which it does have a few compared to China, like IP protection, an English speaking population, little to no corruption, little red tape etc.

    in reply to: 100 F-35 for Singapore #2471234
    YourFather
    Participant

    I am a little bewildered though, by the faith the U.S. seem to have in Singapore, I see that little state as much more shaky in a potential future conflict with mainland China.

    Singapore is in no way any more, or less, ‘shaky’ than any other country when it comes to support for America in any such conflict. The Singapore Govt will not be swayed by any concerns over shared ethnicity with China, if that’s what you mean. The interests of Singapore as a whole will take precedence, and national interests do not align just because of shared ethnicity.

    in reply to: 100 F-35 for Singapore #2471692
    YourFather
    Participant

    Where do they park all the aircraft?

    In our storerooms, mostly. 😀

    Seriously, mainly in Tengah, Changi and Paya Lebar Airbases. Those that are in Singapore, that is. There’s those bases overseas which Singapore ‘rents’ as well, for training purposes, but there’s enough space at home available to accomodate all.

    What exactly is the purpose of having such a disproportionally large air force?

    To antagonise our neighbours. 😉

    The figure given is up to 100 JSFs. Most likely it will be the replacement for the F-5s, and the F-16s from the Peace Carvin II, III and perhaps even IV programs. That’d be almost 90 aircraft.

    in reply to: F-22 internal fuel #2478341
    YourFather
    Participant

    Regarding the evolution of requirements and how weight, cost, stealth, avionics and aerodynamic performance were traded off in search of the ‘best’ plane, I highly recommend getting the book “Advanced Tactical Fighter to F-22 Raptor – Origins of the 21st Century Air Dominance Fighter”. http://www.aiaa.org/content.cfm?pageid=360&id=525 There is a misconception that just because some initially set parameters were not met, like the 50,000lb weight limit, that somehow detracted from performance. Or that critical specifications were reduced in order keep the program alive. That’s not quite true. Often it was just a case early unrealistic expectations meeting technological reality, like the 50,000lb weight requirement and the thrust reversors. When requirements are changed it is usually just a case of balancing all the parameters like cost etc in order to find the most all round capable plane.

    With regards to rear LO performance, the requirements for LO properties was in fact actually increased after RFP release.

    http://forum.keypublishing.co.uk/attachment.php?attachmentid=163383&stc=1&d=1214973919

    http://forum.keypublishing.co.uk/attachment.php?attachmentid=163384&stc=1&d=1214973946

    in reply to: F-22 internal fuel #2480912
    YourFather
    Participant

    Meanwhile, the F-22, whose expensive technology has been thoroughly raided to reduce JSF costs, was able in recent tests to slip between a patrolling F-15 and F-16 without being seen even though controllers were broadcasting the stealth fighter’s location, according to officials involved in the test. Confidence in stealthy designs has grown to the point that Lockheed Martin’s JSF designers have dropped a key F-22 stealth feature–a device in the tailpipe to block radar reflections. In cutting costs, analysts predicted that the 5 deg. fan of reflection from the exhaust cavity would be virtually impossible to track long enough to endanger the aircraft. Therefore, the blocker could be eliminated. In addition, many expensive, non-radar-reflective, composite pieces in the F-22 have been replaced by cheaper, easily-machined, but less stealthy metal parts in the JSF.

    From AWST, 8/27/2001 Vol. 155, Issue 9

    in reply to: F-22 internal fuel #2489996
    YourFather
    Participant

    It is. Size does matter. Wing-area 56,5 m³ versus 77,1 m³ alone! F-15 was with top drag reduction considerations in mind, when the F-22 has to be stealth at first.

    That significantly larger wing area is there for a good reason. Try finding out what altitude the Raptor prowls at. At that altitude where the atmosphere is thin, drag would be less. Lift is what’s required, and large wings bring lift.

    in reply to: PLA (All Forces) Missiles 2 #1786907
    YourFather
    Participant

    Poorly worded on my part. That was what I was indicating – that these would only be used on Chinese soil and hence be brought in to play only when a very significant attacking force was engaging Chinese targets. To an attacking force that advanced the concept of leaving fixed C2 nodes unmolested, to allow these mobile C3 nodes to use them, is faintly absurd to me!.

    Yep, I guess this is where we had a disconnect. I never considered any scenario where someone would be invading Chinese territory. Not plausible to me. The only scenario would be China’s disputed territories with India, I guess. But I don’t think that scenario would see much relying on commercial infrastructure. The Indians do have at least some strike capability.

    I think the Taiwan scenario reasoning is deeply flawed I’m afraid. The Chinese are not going to be suprised at standoff weapons knocking out phone exchanges if the Americans are attacking. They themselves, surely, have targetting lists that incorporate similar facilities in Taiwan – it makes little military sense to allow your opposition such communications channels.

    So red lines on hospitals, schools, civil defence installations etc certainly. Telephone exchanges and civillian broadcast centres no chance.

    Unfortunately, I’m not so sure of this. What’s to say a future McNamara won’t come up with some silly notion of ‘graduated response’ yet again? Making military sense doesn’t always make political sense, unfortunately. The US might restrict itself to military targets, since the sole purpose would be maintain Taiwan sovereignty. Attacking commercial infrastructure might then make ceasefire negotiations that much harder and make America look like it’s the side that’s escalating the situation. On the other hand, by utilising commercial infrastructure the argument could also be made that they were no longer ‘civilian’ and thus there would be no need to keep them off limits. I guess there’s just no way to say for sure that civilian comms infrastructure can or cannot be relied on, just that as an additional capability in a tactical C3I system, it makes sense.

    But if such a capability was installed in a strategic C3I system, then I would call it quite pointless.

    in reply to: PLA (All Forces) Missiles 2 #1786930
    YourFather
    Participant

    Any combat situation liable to see the use of such a C3I node on Chinese soil would

    This is surprising. I really cannot see any scenario where it would be used on anywhere other than Chinese soil. After all, those tactical SSM lauchers are not leaving Chinese soil?

    I’m, genuinely, curious as to what scenario’s you think would allow for that aspect of China’s civillian infrastructure to remain intact whilst an attack was in progress?.

    Well, in a Taiwan scenario as plawolf says, and against other countries like Vietnam etc which have little capability to project power over Chinese Mainland. It’s not certain that the US will be involved in all scenarios. Of course, the scenario outlined by plawolf is only theoretical – is China going to launch ballistic missiles just because infrastructure are attacked in China? In a scenario where the US is not invading China and China’s existence is not at stake? The china-rah-rahs place too much deterrence capability in China’s small nuclear arsenal.

    I fully agree jamming is a way to get round that problem of not being able to disable the commercial comms infrastructure kinetically, but if the idea is to leverage commercial infrastructure to extend comms inland, then range might be an issue with jamming. (I guess those esoteric means of computer attack might come into play and get round that. Wolfpack and MALD-J might also solve that nicely, but these aren’t operational yet.)

    in reply to: JSF Priced atr $58.7M US #2492609
    YourFather
    Participant

    Hmm. This interpretation makes less sense. The report is done in FY08 for FY09, why would the amount be in some unknown future year’s dollar value?

    in reply to: JSF Priced atr $58.7M US #2492661
    YourFather
    Participant

    Crap. I admit i missed that. Now who can give an explanation on the discrepancy between the 58 mil and 80 mil figure? Or does the 80 mil figure include other unknown goods and services? Which is again unlikely, considering the $86.6 mil figure just under it should be that with extra goods (spares etc) and services.

Viewing 15 posts - 181 through 195 (of 482 total)