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Blitzo

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Viewing 15 posts - 616 through 630 (of 1,256 total)
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  • in reply to: China fueling Naval Arms Race??? #1997963
    Blitzo
    Participant

    ^ I think he was referring to Obama.

    Yup! Although I suppose it could refer to any number of governments that have not fulfilled promises to its people… in other words, every government through all of history 😀

    in reply to: China fueling Naval Arms Race??? #1998069
    Blitzo
    Participant

    Yes, the Arabs gulf oil rich emirates and kingdom, basically ‘buy’ their population for social stability in the costs of authoritarianism. The other poorer Arabs try to do the same, however since they can’t put as much money to the population like the rich gulf states, well it only raise social imbalance cost with authoritarianism flavors. Recipe for social powder keg, thus the Arab spring.

    I think that’s a massive simplification of the Arab spring and rules out foreign and media influence.

    China knows that eventhough they already raise about half of billion of population out of poverty, but still the other half living in near poverty or poverty. Thus their homework for social development still large since off course they still want to maintain their own flavour of authoritarianism, thus they still have to spend much of their GDP on ‘buying’ their population for social stability.

    What do you mean by “buying” exactly? It’s not like the government’s giving out red packets to the other half who are still in the poorer rural regions, nor are they segregating the coastal cities with the inland cities. If by “buying” you refer to the government’s investments in infrastructure, education in the poorer regions (as they’ve been doing), then yes I agree with you.

    If the government begins to mismanage the country dramatically then yes, their brand of autocracy will be turned over for something else (or perhaps we’ll just see a dramatic leadership change, who knows). That’s not too different to democracy, only that you don’t have fancy slogans and inspiring rallies whose memories of hope and change become a tattered memory a couple years after the new guy comes in power.

    in reply to: China fueling Naval Arms Race??? #1998125
    Blitzo
    Participant

    I think GDP per capita and standard of living is the smallest variable, as not all countries may allocate budget which allows for said higher standard of living. Nominal overall GDP and perceived threat is probably much more influential.

    in reply to: China fueling Naval Arms Race??? #1998247
    Blitzo
    Participant

    You often come across as immature and prejudicial towards the United States……………

    You often come across as immature and prejudicial towards the People’s Republic…………..

    —–

    This also happen betwen China vs Japan, China vs US. Relative much higher living standard of average American and Japanese, will free much more portion of their economy on defense compared to China. This will happen even in the future. You guys already see how China growth decreasing. This is not surprising for us that earn our living on Financial industry. Since this is the cycle that China will face as the stages of their economy begin to mature.

    This is what the cooler heads in China realise, rather that some nationalists bravado on the internet forums of chinastrong fanboys.

    On the contrary I believe is absolute GDP which determines the military spending, not the average GDP per capita.

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/7b/Military_expenditure_by_country_map2.png/800px-Military_expenditure_by_country_map2.png
    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/08/Map_of_countries_by_GDP_%28nominal%29_in_US%24.png/800px-Map_of_countries_by_GDP_%28nominal%29_in_US%24.png
    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/70/GDP_nominal_per_capita_world_map_IMF_2007.PNG

    If you look at the world’s top ten military spenders and the world’s top ten economies, they are virtually the same.

    South Korea and Australia and Canada may have far higher GDP per capita than China or Russia, but they spend far less. Partly that’s because you can have a really small country where everyone is well off, but still be unable to even afford a squadron of second hand fighters (as a kiwi this is a gripe), whereas a far larger economy with lower average living standards can still put forwards more absolute cash to afford a world class military and buy tons of foreign equipment (India is a great example). Geopolitical imperatives and security also plays a big part of course. If Canada suddenly faced a military threat from alaska (lol) I bet they’d probably start investing in more fighters and warships and cruise missiles.
    It is the nation’s absolute GDP output and the nation’s policy towards spending their hard earned cash which will determine just how much funding the military gets. If you’re a government who doesn’t give two sh*ts about your people, you can siphon away money that could be used for improving education and literacy and healthcare for fighters and aircraft carriers and missiles.

    As for chinese growth decelerating… we’ll see. This cooling of the chinese economy was concocted by the current government under Xi purposefully to cool the economy and reorient it towards a more sustainable long term growth plan (which will inevitably have short term shocks).

    Predicting the course of such a big economy like china or the us is like predicting the outcome of a conflict between such countries, it’s a dream.

    Blitzo
    Participant

    I think the essential problem with this is that your Corvette then becomes a sitting duck to anyone that can put a Helicopter in the air with a decent anti ship capabilty like Sea Skua/Penguin or even something in the class of Hellfire/Brimstone.

    It’s okay for chasing pirates, smugglers, even Mine counter measures etc, but I don’t think that’s what the thread starter was after.

    Going over the requirements in the thread starter, I think that is exactly the kind of ship its after? Relatively mundane capabilities that can hold its own against a weak opponent, and act as a capable light combat auxiliary against a more powerful foe to free the bigger ships for important duties.

    Peacetime roles include: shipping protection, pirate hunting, homewater patrol, maintaining presence
    Wartime roles include: mine counter, possible ASW depending on design, convoy guarding (with other ships), and simply having more ships on hand for lower intensity interdiction or patrols

    Also if your bare bones corvette is being targeted by an enemy with any form of air power, then chances are it will also be supported by more capable frigates and destroyers (no reason to send a weak corvette in alone against a known enemy). The only danger would be a surprise attack against your small corvette, in which case that is up to high brass and intelligence to decide what ships they want to send into hazard zones with competent enemies.

    But I agree that manpower is a large factor. Western navies may not be able to simply muster enough men to staff a line of new corvettes even if they could build them.

    in reply to: China fueling Naval Arms Race??? #1998390
    Blitzo
    Participant

    China will not surpass the USN in the next 15 years. Especially, if it continues on the current course. As the US will just strengthen it Military Position in the Pacific. Which, will be closely followed by its many Allies in the Region. Which, China doesn’t have………….(except North Korea)

    I think economic integration in westpac is a bigger part of chinas plans to keep out US than military. Also while PLAN won’t surpass USN as a whole in 15 years, it may start to challenge local westpac USN forces and its allies, ie the ships that USN can bring to bear.
    Whether US pursues a formal westpac NATO is also in question (for the fact that many small countries are also quibbling among themselves and the rise of such a pact will inevitably spook china and put westpac into a state of formal Cold War).

    Indeed for china the ace card up its sleeve is probably increased economic integration and growth.

    in reply to: China fueling Naval Arms Race??? #1998399
    Blitzo
    Participant

    what are you talking about, China has sent lots of naval ships into the islands.

    Um no. They’ve sent lots of coast guard/maritime surveillance/fisheries ships to the islands, not naval. Sending in naval ships would be a dramatic escalation of posture. Do some research please

    Chinese don’t simply seem to understand the perspectives of its neighbors.
    The Chinese are trying to re-claim its perceived loss of territories in history
    Neighbors see China as trying to re-live its imperial power days by rebuilding the gains of its past empires (which came at their cost to begin with)
    then the Chinese get offended and don’t understand why its neighbors begin drifting towards its enemies.
    duh.

    Well I personally agree with you to an extent. Chinas economic and military rise over the last decade has been astronomical and even scary for many of its smaller neighbours that it has disputes with.
    It’s posture towards disputes territories hasn’t changed, only its power to reinforce those claims if push comes to shove.
    And what imperial power days are you specifying? Because there is a sense in the nation that china should “reclaim” the territories it lost over a century ago, but no imperialistic style adventurism ala imperial Japan. I am sympathetic to how that perception can be maintained however, and I think that’s more down to the medias filtering of china and its intentions rather than what they actually are

    Blitzo
    Participant

    In WWII there would have been a much larger correlation between the size of the ship and the cost, than there will be today. Nowadays thanks to the cost of modern sensors and weapon systems the scale of cost involved in warship building is much more incremental – Corvettes don’t cost significantly less than a decent Frigate, but don’t have the legs of a larger ship. Basically a decision to build a Corvette over a Frigate means economising on the cheapest part of a ships construction – the steel.

    I think that depends on how capable your definition of a corvette and frigate is.
    A corvette and frigate will share a main gun, maybe a ciws. A corvette may realistically boast half of a frigate’s anti ship missile load. Everything else we see on modern frigates — advanced phased array radar, VLS or arm launcher for SAMs, advanced ASW capablities, even a helicopter hangar in some cases — are going to be absent on a 1500-2000 ton corvette, dramatically reducing cost. You can reuse proven combat systems of existing vessels on a new corvette (and the hull itself could be a modernized version of a previous design).

    To fulfill the wide variety of tasks mentioned in the first post, the corvette can be designed to be built in different blocks, boasting fixed specializations with equipment from existing ships (ASW, mine hunting, naval gunfire) rather than a more expensive and riskier “swing role” function like LCS where dedicated modules must be developed or adapted.

    Blitzo
    Participant

    I think the emphasis here is a lack of low end combatants in western navies, yes?

    Mass produce some K130, sigma or 056 type corvettes. China’s got smaller shipyards churning them out like dumplings. I’m sure western countries can do so too even if they have smaller building capacity, just don’t stick in too many new bells and whistles. Use existing proven technology and give it a very modest arms loadout.

    in reply to: China fueling Naval Arms Race??? #1998567
    Blitzo
    Participant

    Devils advocate, I think any claim about the results of an arms race is premature.. And the westpac economies are not so fragile that binging on weapons will make them collapse.

    in reply to: China fueling Naval Arms Race??? #1998586
    Blitzo
    Participant

    I am making a point that China’s current policies from Defense Spending to it’s more and more aggressive tone is having a negative effect. Which, is leading to an Arms Race and heighten tensions with several of it’s neighbors. (FACT)

    Like thobbes said, china hasn’t changed its stance towards the islands, it’s only now that the world and the media is paying more attention to it, partly because its economy is rising.

    No, trying to keep the discussion on topic.

    There doesn’t seem much to discuss though, you seem to have already concluded that there is indeed an arms race going on and it’s all china’s fault? Unless you want a circlejerk thread…

    Wrong Defense Spending is increasing in ASIA and it’s because of China vastly increased Defense Spending and it’s aggressive tone and actions with several of it’s neighbors.

    See, you’ve already reached the conclusion.

    Anyway, your claim in the first couple of posts in this threaad regarding a formal alliance is still a long ways off regardless of whether the rising defence spending is unilaterally due to china or not.

    I doubt the Nations of Japan, South Korea, Philippines, etc. etc. etc. See it as you do. Which, is the point. While you may not agree with it and think China is in the right. Most of China’s Neighbors totally disagree!

    Most of china’s neighbours have disputes with each other as well lol. Yes China has disputes with many countries, but it also shares borders (maritime and land) with many countries too. An unfortunate result of geography.

    Besides, there hasn’t been a naval confrontation in SCS between china and other countries for decades, and china is not stupid enough to start one now (most of the SCS countries would be completely pummeled, but it’s the geopolitical fallout which goes against china’s interests completely). China’s stance towards the SCS hasn’t changed, it’s only its power which has risen (combined with media and geopolitical jockeying for a new bogeyman since the soviet union disintegrated)

    http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2013/07/07/national/japan-eyes-two-new-aegis-destroyers-to-counter-n-korea-missile-threat/#.UeiKeXHD-M8

    Thanks. Will be interesting to see if it’s actually purused, and if it’s a pair of new atagos or a new build ship completely.

    Yo scooter, how about replying with something other than :rolleyes: every now and then?

    in reply to: China fueling Naval Arms Race??? #1998592
    Blitzo
    Participant

    Because we are not discussing the US.:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

    … Well you are accusing China of something, so naturally shouldn’t we look at how other countries stack up to see if there is a case of pot calling the kettle black?

    I think we are yet again getting off the subject. We were discussing Chinese Defense Spending and it’s Aggressive Tone over several disputed territories (Islands) with several of it’s neighbors. Which, is leading to an Arms Race in Asia. Not about poverty or what the US spends on National Defense. If, anybody wants to discuss that. Then please feel free to start another thread……

    What is there to discuss? Are you seeking a yes/no answer to your question?

    All the asian countries are rising economies, so you’d expect them to arm up according to their economic growth. I don’t think you can call the military procurements in the region as an “arms race”. China’s definitely spooking a few of its neighbours through its sheer mass, but there’s nothing like a formal alliance or a real full on arms race on the horizon yet…

    Until China sends in naval ships to the disputed islands instead of coastguard ships, then we can start to take this thread seriously. Hell, last year wasn’t it the phillipines that sent its brand spanking new ex hamilton class “frigate” to the disputed islands and took on a few unarmed PRC maritime surveillance vessels? And wasn’t it the phillipines coast guard that shot and killed the taiwanese fishing boat a few months ago on account of little apart from the chinese characters on the ship’s side, therefore immediately assuming it was PRC?

    A more interesting and perhaps more objective debate will be to assess all the existing forces and upcoming procurements of each navy, compare their individual capabilities or something.
    Earlier in the thread someone mentioned JMSDF looking for 2 more aegis destroyers, and I’d still like a source for that.

    in reply to: China fueling Naval Arms Race??? #1998680
    Blitzo
    Participant

    Poverty level, define what that is.

    World bank’s definition: living below $1.25 a day.

    A person living “below poverty level” but owning property is worse off than one whose government takes their property?
    Bloomberg said it merely moved people from the country owning property, to cities, trying to pay rent in shanty towns.
    Boy what an advance.

    Lol let’s stop for a moment. I’m not going to challenge you on the shanty town thing, because I haven’t read the article myself.
    But the statement preceding makes me think you believe that without a reduction in poverty, the government would have been unwilling or scared to take their property.

    –Give me proof that the general populace is being lifted out of povery.

    google “china poverty since 1978” or do any kind of article search. Check their credentials yourself.
    The lifting of millions out of poverty in “red china” has been one of the big news stories of the decade before last, you can’t have missed it.

    That people rode bicycles before and now many drive cars has nothing to do with poverty. The U.S. switching from horses to cars had zero to do with poverty, just a change in technology. It was balanced by which was cheaper, fueling the car or feeding the horse.

    I’m not sure if you’re serious. Of course the US switched from horses to cars because it was a revolution in technology, cheaper etc.
    Are you saying in China the change from bicycles to cars was a “revolution in technology”? Um no, China’s had cars for decades. It was because people could now afford to buy cars, implying an overall rise in income, implying an overall shift in the bell curve.

    If you want to read Bloomberg articles look them up, I will not do it for you.

    Could you at least give me some key words to put in? Bloomberg puts out a lot of articles, many of which are about China and many of which are probably not the small handful you are using as the bedrock of your argument.

    As I said you made the bold statement about poverty going away because of the government; give an absolute that defines Chinese poverty and that the government is the reason it is changing.
    You made the statement PROVE it.

    The global poverty line is living off less than $1.25 per day. Do a search of the statistics yourself. That is the absolute which I’m using (and the rest of the world is using) to define poverty.

    Have you done any reading on Deng Xiaoping’s economic reforms of the late 1970s, and the rise in FDI immediately following it? I dont’ think you need a degree in economics to understand investment is generally a good thing for the host country.
    We can take it step by step if you wish.
    Reforms of late 1970s = initiated by government Y/N?
    Reforms of late 1970s, led to rise in FDI and accelerated economic growth Y/N?
    Economic growth, led to reduction in poverty and rise of the average per capita income Y/N?

    Let’s take a step back. You (or someone else) last page accused China of overspending on its military or something along those lines, and that it should instead focus on raising the living standards of its populace. So the last part shoudl be the focal point — whether China has or has not raised the living standards for its population.
    I think you’re the only fellow that has denied the reduction in poverty since the 1970s economic reforms, but one can only lead another to water. You are also countering that the rise in GDP hasn’t benefitted everyone in the country, and it has led to some abuse of governmental power, yes? I completely agree with that, and those are among other challenges which a developing country must face. The rising inequality, the rising urban poverty level, unequal education etc are all problems that will need to be solved.
    But if you’re claiming that those problems somehow negate the benefits of economic growth which has been brought to the rest of the country then you’re delusional. If you’re claiming that economic growth and a rise in GDP for the overall population is not equivalent to “raising the living standards of a nation’s populace,” then let’s have a discussion about that and let’s apply your definition of living standards to the rest of the world too and let’s see how many hits the benchmark.

    in reply to: China fueling Naval Arms Race??? #1998683
    Blitzo
    Participant

    The government of China has not lifted anyone out of poverty anymore than the U.S. government has.

    You’ll have to explain that statement. The economi reforms instilled by the government in the 80s directly led to the economic rejuvenation of the country and the dramatic drop in people beneath the poverty line. Or are you claiming it happened by accident or something.

    That is a political bs cliche’ floated often by politician every where with zero proof as the populaces are too stupid to check the numbers and see they are being sold, and charged for a white elephant.

    We’re talking about proof are we? Lets seenyours for that claim. Solid numbers.

    Bloomberg magazine has had many articles in the past months on how China is crapping on some citizens to promote others; protests have shown your “lifted” boat sank before it was launched.

    Again proof, and not anecdotes (and how does that disprove the decline in poverty overall? Every country has perceived inequality, but that doesn’t change the big picture.)
    We all know there have been… What, thousands of “mass gatherings” per year in china or whatever? Yes there are protests, and there will be as the country gives the populace a stronger voice that economic growth has allowed. But nowhere in even the most hard line western media have I seen anything about protests AGAINST the past decades’ growth out of poverty. If you’re talking about issues of “rising inequality” — that is an issue every nation faces, both developed and developing. And rising inequality doesn’t change the fact that 85% of the population was below the poverty line in 1981 and only 13.1 were in 2008.

    in reply to: China fueling Naval Arms Race??? #1998787
    Blitzo
    Participant

    And it probably won’t happen.

    Asia is more about just China v the rest. There is a lot of old yet still simmering tensions. E.g. South Korea is distrustful of Japan – in fact most Asian nations are opposed to Japanese rearmament.

    There’s also a number of unresolved issues in SE Asia.

    +1
    Unless China does something completely batsh*t crazy, a westpac NATO is still very much beyond the horizon.

Viewing 15 posts - 616 through 630 (of 1,256 total)