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Blitzo

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  • in reply to: J-20 Black Eagle – Part 6 #2319773
    Blitzo
    Participant

    An interesting but flawed article on the J-20’s bay doors:

    http://defensetech.org/2011/09/02/j-20-stealth-fighter-doors-explained/

    J-20 Stealth Fighter Doors Explained

    This Friday morning — more like midday — is going to be devoted to stealth jets here at DT. Look at the above picture of China’s J-20 Stealth jet. See that big open door just forward of the main landing gear? My colleague Phil Ewing recently asked me if it’s the opening for another weapons or equipment bay.

    While I’m no expert on this fighter, I think we can say that we’re seeing the main landing gear bay. Look at the photos below and notice how the gear should fold forward into that open bay.

    Chalk any confusement up to grainy pictures of the plane combined with the layout of the forward-folding landing gear and the placement of the bay door. Keep in mind that the door could also provide maintainers access to other internal systems on the plane in addition to accommodating the landing gear.

    You can see in the last photo below how that open gear door looks like it wasn’t meant for the landing gear.

    The real mystery surrounding the giant plane is; what will it be used for?

    My guess is that it’s a high-speed interceptor along the lines of the famous MiG-25 Foxbat and MiG-31 Foxhound or that it’s meant to be a penetrating, F-111 or F-15E-style weapons truck designed to strike heavily defended targets like air bases or carrier battle groups. As you can see in this video, it certainly appears to have the weapons carrying capacity for either of these missions.

    Just in case anyone here who might know better is enticed into believing this, I want to say their speculation on the plane’s role is utter cow’s manure.

    If J-20 was a striker we wouldn’t be seeing J-20’s configuration as it is now — i.e: no canards, and likely no all moving tails either. The weapon bays would also likely be a different configuration. Also, there’s years of speculation and credible rumours and even a PLAAF deputy air chief’s backing to give us knowledge about what this plane is meant to be. That J-XX/J-20 is a stealthy, supercruising high performance air superiority fighter primarily.
    Also, think about the logic. Why would PLAAF go for a high speed interceptor? What super high speed aircraft are there which its enemies operate which would necessitate a dedicated stealthy interceptor? Why couldn’t you create a manouverable fighter capable of high speeds as well?
    On the flipside, what need does PLAAF have for deep penetrating strikers? Which heavily defended IADS are there near its borders which land based SRBMs, LACMs and conventional strike aircraft cannot hit? As for an anti carrier mission — would it be logical to send a dedicated aircraft out to face a CVBG and delivering an arguably limited payload (let’s say two YJ-82s a pop — and that’s ridiculously overestimating the size of J-20s weapon bays) and coming into range of aegis, advanced hawkeye, and CAP? Even if J-20 had the speed and altitude to escape, why risk such expensive purpose built assets when you’re hitting one of the enemies arguably strongest points? Why not say, use a long range ballistic missile to test the less proven ABM shielding of naval craft instead? Or even quiet SSKs laying in wait? Or how about dozens of small stealthy FACs waiting in the littorals? -hint hint-

    So basically there is no reason for PLAAF to go for a dedicated striker, or interceptor — though J-20 will be able to perform similar roles along the lines of how F-22 does, only probably with greater range and endurance.
    If this plane isn’t a striker or interceptor, then what is it? Well the first answer always should have been — an air dominance aircraft.

    But why would people think otherwise? A few reasons. One is that the wings look a bit small for the plane (debatable, I think they seem quite well sized). Another is its perceived large size. But even then there’s no reason a big aircraft cannot be manouverable (flanker anyone?).
    But perhaps a powerful reason, is this, as illustrated by a commentor on the article through the link:

    China knows it can’t match us on a level playing field so they design a long range stealth aircraft with the sole purpose of destroying our critical assets, therefore circumventing a head-to-head engagement.

    I’m sure you can think up a level headed response.

    Rant/post over. Hopefully I’ve convinced anyone who still thinks this aircraft is a dedicated striker or interceptor otherwise 🙂

    in reply to: J-20 Black Eagle – Part 6 #2319776
    Blitzo
    Participant

    No aircraft, unless it was possibly a super/hypersonic or sub/orbital skimmer, could fill the role DF-21D is meant to do or what it could achieve (deliver a payload 2500km away at high speed to penetrate CVBGs defences). DF-21D’s a component of the greater A2AD strategy, including submarines, long ranged AShCMs, FACs and naval strikers.
    Besides J-20’s weapon bays do not look to be suited for holding large A2G weapons.

    Really the PLAAF are not going to make some crazy decision like make their new aircraft a striker or interceptor given proficiency of opfor aircraft… J-20’s an airdom plane with long legs, kk :p

    in reply to: J-20 Black Eagle – Part 6 #2319931
    Blitzo
    Participant

    Even at 21 m, it’s a big aircraft because of its configuration. Of the aircraft we tend to compare it to, the Su-27 is long because of the way that the area distribution is managed – with a long body in front and engine nacelles to the rear – and because of the tail sting, while the F-22 has booms and tails hanging way out the back.

    Roughly speaking, the J-20 has a similar body cross-section to the F-22, but where it counts – nose to exhaust – it is a lot longer.

    +1, J-20s definitely got a lot more space where it counts compared to F-22.

    @starikki, nice one that definitely does change things a little.

    in reply to: J-20 Black Eagle – Part 6 #2320189
    Blitzo
    Participant

    @emile, even if that comparison by wheelsize you got going isn’t flawed, the length of J-20 still looks to be under 21m, or 21m at most. F-22 is 18.9m remember.

    We’ve been over how eyeballing two features on aircraft and then extrapolating a measurement is flawed. On the other hand calculations of J-20’s length with a known variable’s size gave us under 20-21m and an insider gave us 20.3m… I don’t see why we’re still debating this.

    in reply to: J-20 Black Eagle – Part 6 #2320291
    Blitzo
    Participant

    No clearly J-20 is under 22m, we’ve got an insider saying it’s 20.3m, our own analyses compared with a fixed variable gives it around 20.5m. This aircraft is not that big, eyeballing won’t be changing the maths.

    Once we get to 2017 you might have to change your mind on J-20s final configuration 🙂

    Blitzo
    Participant

    thats whats written with such conviction of Anywhere.

    PLAAF has ~400 flanker variants in service with large numbers of S-300 variants and the comparable HQ-9. His statement wasn’t really flawed because I don’t think he was talking about production, but rather operation.

    The only evolved Flanker are Su-34 & Su-35. The rest are not evolved Flankers at all but mere replacements of older parts with newer parts.

    That’s up for debate, what isn’t up for debate is that Su-30MKKs and MK2s, as well as JH-7As have the legs and payload for the operations you were talking about.

    J-10 is 21st century MIG-21. It is good as long as there is surplus technical labor and materials/money/energy/space is cheap to be wasted on numerous short leg low end product. That period is now closed.

    And you know this due to experience with CAC’s manufacturing of the aircraft and long term observation of PLAAF operations with J-10? J-10’s got shorter legs than flankers, that comes without saying, but it’s not exactly low end like the Mig-21 was.
    It has a reported combat radius of 1100 km btw, and a payload of 6 tons. I suppose I will agree with you if we can consider F-16s as 21st century Mig-21s as well.

    in reply to: J-20 Black Eagle – Part 6 #2321254
    Blitzo
    Participant

    Posted by eagle over on CDF…

    http://img535.imageshack.us/img535/7271/jh7b.jpg

    hrrrggggg — so this picture, and the other two I posted a while ago are said to not be of J-19 but “JH-7B”… Hmm

    EDIT: hrrgggg, nvm it’s of the KFX, false alarm 🙂
    http://bemil.chosun.com/nbrd/gallery/view.html?b_bbs_id=10044&num=92441

    Blitzo
    Participant

    China was brought in in the second reply by Mr.Sintara that only China can produce fighters and double digit SAMs in decent numbers. when there is not factual basis for it. not in numbers nor in quality of weapons. and no one know how much labor & cost was used to produce those fighters. that tipping point of labor inefficiency has long term effects.

    I don’t think he mentioned China in that context at all, saying that only the PLA would be in a position or have the need to blow up some American airfields short of starting WWIII and that’s only in the taiwan scenario.
    As for the quality of weapons… ~200 J-10s over six years or some ain’t bad I think, ~28mil USD a pop?

    I like how AEWC, tankers, VVS and PLAAF have to do with F-22s ESM and radar.

    Blitzo
    Participant

    second point is larger fuel tanks of larger aircraft. large size aircraft like Su-24/Su-34. Even 40 aircraft in total can bring down a third world country in couple of days. You dont need 6 months for that.

    China lacks both large loitering aircraft and high speed bombers. so it will not be able to react to tactical long range situation.

    Well if you consider 40 Su-34s to be a potent force, China does have 100 MKKs/MK2s and a further 190+ JH-7As, which despite what you may hear is more comparable to a Tornado than Jaguar and certainly has the range, while lacking the self defense of F-15E or flanker derivatives.

    @TR1, agreed

    Blitzo
    Participant

    China after blowing $300b on bullet trains and another $1.5T on local governments don’t have the surplus cash to modernize its Aviation industry on the same scale as Russia.

    Blowing $300billion on bullet trains? You mean HSR right, how exactly was that money wasted? A crash of an old non chinese design is not going to cancel the entire program, nowhere near that.

    I’d hesitate comparing the “modernization” of china and russia’s aviation industries in coming years, but I’m pretty sure they will have more money to throw around simply due to the comparative and projected strength of the chinese economy.

    So I am very skeptical about China ability of modern strike fighters that are have long legs and can lift giant pods seen on Su-30/Su-34.

    Well all they need is for SAC to modify a J-11 enough to accomodate an aircraft like Su-30 or Su-34. Not to mention their heavy multirole stealth fighter, J-19 (watch this space). Then of course, one may argue J-20 can act as a strike fighter when you load it up with SDBs, and it will certainly have the range…

    Why drag china into this in the first place… OTOT

    in reply to: PLAAF Thread 15 #2322269
    Blitzo
    Participant

    🙂
    Here is a blurred out and intentionally censored image of a desk-top model of that particular SAC 601 4th (5th) Generation J-XX concept – as seen in the drawing posted by Blitzo et al. Rumor has it that SAC 601 offered two different concepts – the J-19 and the J-21 – the J-21 is the concept with the twin V-tail, like that on the American YF-23. The J-19 concept looked more like the YF-22 / F-22. But of course Chengdu CAC 611 won the competion for the contest with their J-20 – that we all now can see. But SAC 601 might still be pursuing their efforts with advanced combat aircraft – giving the Chinese PLAAF more options. Just like the open competion between the L-15 and the JL-9 series for an advanced supersonic trainer.

    Interesting picture — but I do not think J-20 and SAC’s 4th gen will enter a competition like JL-9 and L-15, PLAAF already seem commited to J-20 and SAC’s plane might be a supplement like a heavy striker or form the low of a hi-low combo (costing less due to less advanced avionics compared with J-20)

    in reply to: J-20 Black Eagle – Part 6 #2322612
    Blitzo
    Participant

    the list seems accurate enough for most types – save for j11s. there is no way there are so many su27s and j11s. it is well documented that at best some 100 j11s were produced before production switched to j11b model. and it is also very well documented there were, all in all, 76 su27sk and su27ubk (combined) delivered in the 1990s. I’d therefore lower the flanker family variant figure by some 100 planes. also, what about adding bombers to the list? H6? does anyone know how large h6 squadrons are? i have a feeling they seem to change sizes and that plaaf and planaf squadrons might have different compositions and numbers…

    Not for this thread :p

    You could ask HKDSU about that chart over on sdf but he and franco-russe seems pretty confident in most numbers.

    in reply to: J-20 Black Eagle – Part 6 #2322615
    Blitzo
    Participant

    Good post!

    That many J-7?? Still!?! Are all of those actually regularly flying/airworthy?
    I think they would do well to gut that number considerably.

    Most of those J-7s are still pretty new; E and G variants (remember CAC was still producing these things in the 2000s — they’ve come a long way to J-20), so they’re definitely flyable and not unuseful if flown well.
    But I think their airframes don’t last very long so expect a lot of them to be replaced in coming years as J-10 production ramps up.

    in reply to: J-20 Black Eagle – Part 6 #2322637
    Blitzo
    Participant

    Here is the PLAAF’s fighters currently in service compiled by HKSDU over on sdf.

    So yeah some SKs are still flying, mixed with J-11s.

    http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/3343/plaafupdate.jpg

    in reply to: J-20 Black Eagle – Part 6 #2322721
    Blitzo
    Participant

    looks like PLAAF appreciate the value of range in Pacific, unlike Some other airforces…

    ok my last snicker at DoD for a while now.

    Bill Sweetman has a point you know, F35 faces block obsolescent when facing oppositions like T-50 and J-20, and even F-22 is at best evenly matched. there is no dominance anymore thus put USAF in an uncomfortable position of using shear numbers, once again.

    Time to restart a bid for 6th Gen fighter (GO Boeing!) and meanwhile dust off F-22 line and re hash a F/B-22 out of it. go for speed, range and firepower, forget maneuverability.

    I’m sure the US will have fun finding the money to fund NGAD, not to mention NGB… let alone a F-22 striker lol…
    And I won’t say USAF is in an uncomfortable position, only they’re due to be in a slightly less overpowering one than a few years ago. Let’s see how J-20 and T-50 procurement goes and what USAF/USN brings to the table beyond F-35 (how long that will take will be important).

    I’ll be interested in how SACs 5th gen influences things. While we can’t be sure PLAAF will buy loads of them, the potential appearance of a second stealth fighter from one country within more or less a year is sure to spook DoD.
    And PLAAF could use a stealthy multirole striker to supplement J-20’s airdom in future. That would be a nice watershed moment — the world’s first heavyweight 5th gen striker.

    It took Blitzo and you, what, 4-5 posts back and forth to get the joke.

    you are seriously too serious.

    lighten up. you came here for enjoyment.

    Just for the record I got the joke when you said it :p

    (“you are seriously too serious” — classic)

Viewing 15 posts - 856 through 870 (of 1,256 total)