@ i.e.

To be fair the AShBM isn’t considered “in service” with the PLA, yet. And I imagine it’d come under 2nd Arty command, not PLAN so it’s a bit skewed to compare it with the USN. The US strategic command or whatever they call their ICBM/missile group thingy these days, has the PGS under development which will the capabilities of the AShBM on a larger scale but not for moving targets.

But I agree with everything else you said — I imagine the aerospace industry would have a lot of other goodies in the works. We’ve already seen pictures of the Sino X-37B/Shenlong?, and there’s evidence of advanced development in lasers and ucavs and uavs (and I’m not talking about ones shown at zhuhai — those are the low end, designed for export). Out of interest, what do you think the chinese analogue to the X-51 is? I haven’t seen or heard of such a platform yet, though I’m sure it exists.

—

I think the crux of this B-1 missiler concept is whether the USAFs opfor can/will deploy a much greater force of fighters in the opening stages of a conflict, if the opfor somehow is able to get one up on the US and takes out US bases in the second island chain to deny the strait for them… Otherwise F-22s can inflict very heavy losses for the PLAAF or anyone else, before they either return to base or get shot down/crash due to no tanker support.

And all the above depends on airbases in range of the strait for aircraft that would be in range… which is effectively kapedani’s fulcrum for the whole paper air force argument. In post 74 he said only 4 airfields closer than 350 miles to taiwan, and plawolf later quoted rand saying 27 airbaes within 500nm of taiwan… I personally think the latter gives a broader view, but it depends what kind of aircraft can be fielded from 500 nm away and still achieve a good sortie rate.
J-11/flankers — definitely can, I don’t think anyone disputes that.
JH-7s — I’d assume they can, but seeing as they’re for strike more than air combat it might be ruled out.
J-10s — I quoted a ~1500km combat radius a few pages back, from wiki who got it from richard fisher… If it was 1500km then it should more than be able to operate from 500 nm away.
J-7s and J-8s — yeah…. probably not… but not all those 27 would be 500 nm away, so they might be able to muster up some. J-8IIs with PL-12s espicially would be useful with their supersonic performance.

Can anyone give a summary of the kind of aircraft stationed at those 27 airbases?
I imagine the closer bases would field shorter ranged aircraft like J-7s and J-8s mostly while further ones would field longer legs to protect from potential long range SAMs and counter attacks etc.

my bad.
extensive modes though.

generally speaking some moded Y-7 platform for carrier awacs is a bad idea.

basic Y-7 is too big and under powered. redesigned the wing, take out two plugs in fluseage… by the time they are done they would be better off designing a new aircraft… which is what I bet they essentially will do.

Yeah I completely agree with that.

I think whenever people say “Y-7 AWACS” it’s just because the Y-7 is the closest looking aircraft the Chinese aerospace industry can currently produce which is close to the E-2/C-2. I imagine the real carrier awacs will be influenced by the Y-7, or at least have some common parts or at least some relation to it (Maybe they’ll call the aircraft itself a new variant of the Y-7, and the entire system KJ-20 or something).

This is not enough!!!

It’s the PLAAF counter to the B-1 missle mothership 😀

There is definitely room for two side bays, but given how long the j20 is these could easily be made long enough to hold bvraams instead of just wvraams as is the case with the f22. What is the assumed length of the j20
for the above configuration?

Err no idea — I stumbled on them browsing through the sina mil website and there was an associated article with it, but I can’t seem to find that page nor can I locate it in my history :/

No they fly copies of Kh-55.

And

Talked about by whom? The same guys who photoshop everything?

Is basically all that’s needed to be seen.

i.e. dude, let it go, his stance is more than clear 🙁

New KJ-2000 in CFTE livery

newly converted IL-76 platform.

suppose to be a new upgrade of KJ-2000 system.

also notice the inflight air-refuel boom.

looks like KJ-2000 program is marching on.

from http://www.fyjs.cn/bbs/htm_data/27/1103/314478.html

Unfortunately it’s the same original prototype for the KJ-2000, I think.
The original prototype number was 762 as well, and they just repainted this one.

Sorry dude 🙁

But…. This is a picture of a miniaturized KJ-2000 AESA radar on the Y-8 test platform T0518 (before used for the ZDK-03 radar), of which will be used on the Y-7 naval awacs.

And before anyone calls it a PS, keep in mind we’ll need a picture of that before it was PSed (which hasn’t turned up), and all previous news suggested a mini KJ-2000 aesa woudl be used for the Y-7 awacs, and also that this is from huitong, who usually won’t get conned by such. that’s all. 🙂

The point, or the relevant point, is the actual usefulness of the J-10 in a Taiwan operation, operating mainly from bases 400-500 miles way. What you’re talking about has no relevance to that issue.

Considering conformal fuel tanks are likely down the pipeline, I wouldn’t call it irrelevant…

The USAF worries whenever it sees a fly within 2,000 miles of it. Its what its supposed to do. Doesn’t mean the threat is real.

Yeah there’s not replying to that is there?

Yep. And that would mean pretty much it’d get a similar retaliation in return. Game over. This is why the whole scenario is outlandish. But lets indulge it a bit more 😉

Retaliation from US aircraft from bases and carriers? Or SSGNs and destroyers launching tomahawks, or what? If cruise missiles, that could very well be what the J-7s can be tasked to intercept.
Or retaliation from Taiwan? 😮

First of all if China were to prepare for an attack on Taiwan, it would have to start massive movements months ahead, allowing for about half the USN to be at its doorstep. Chinese aren’t stupid…which is why no war with Taiwan is even a remote possibility.

It depends on what kind of attack on Taiwan it would be, but I suppose the only palpable reason for attack is if Taiwan declares independence… in which case the US would instantly position itself close.
But at the moment I wouldn’t really fancy to be on the PLA side if they were keen to establish long term air superiority over Taiwan. But again, depends on a load of variables other than direct military ones which complicates things too much.

Apparently some people can’t figure that one out either.

I know, right?

Hmm…nop.

Each to their own then.

It doesn’t sound about right at all. Not realistic for a real combat scenario. Of course it would depend on the flight profile, but it is highly unlikely such operations (about the same range the Israelis were flying against Osirak, or against Tunis), could be flown under more than abysmally low sortie rates…with an aircraft like the J-10, with limited or no tanker support, against an airspace where they’ll have to go fast and maneuver once there. Such a plane becomes a target, once it gets there.

At the end of the day neither of us can say definitely what range and patrol time the J-10 can have just by looking at it, but I’d be astounded if the PLAAF in the eighties and nineties hadn’t factored in a Taiwan air battle scenario and the capability to operate from less vulnerable bases in said scenario, into the future mainstay of their fleet.

If you think otherwise, then GG.

I think some people are overestimating them. China still has a pretty modest air force, in terms of technologically advanced airframes. It still has thousands of rust buckets it need to replace with J-10s and the like…which today are already nothing special and in 10 years time will be well past their time.

The europeans will be fielding eurocanards well beyond 2020, I see no reason why J-10s and further variants can’t be fielded even further. The J-10B will only be the beginning, we should expect Growth Hornet type upgrades to the J-10 as time goes on.

They’re doing good, but are nothing to worry about.

I think the USAF are worrying… a little to say the least.

Only because they would be so spread out. And its that spread that makes the PLAAF unlikely to be able to carry out this “swarm” attack on Taiwan that is presented here.

The swarm type attacks which you envision probably won’t happen, at least not in such a literal sense.

Sure. Make it 1,000 4th gen fighters. Still most of them can’t reach Taiwan. Taiwan itself has about 350 4th gen fighters today. These are not very good looking odds for any attacker.

I don’t want to get into a hypothetical scenario too much, but under most circumstances the PLA’s 2nd artillery would launch a large number of missiles against Taiwanese airbases, air fields and other such high value targets. It’s impossible to judge how such an attack would degrade the ROCAF fighter force depending on how many missiles get intercepted by patriots and such. And more could be intercepted if there was a definite build up before this hypothetical battle actually occurs — the US could shift naval assets or more SAMs to and around Taiwan… etc.

But it’s certain the ROCAF won’t be at full force in such a scenario. What’s unknown is how what damage if any the PLAAF will suffer in the beginning stages and how widely they choose to choose to launch their missiles (to delay USAF fighters from guam, etc). Again if there was a definite knowledge of such a battle the results of the initial stages will vary widely.

What we can determine with certainty is the number of airbases within a good range of Taiwan… which I’ll leave plawolf to continue with you, if he wants.

You are the only person I have ever encountered who is adovating this rather silly notion that the PLA would not have numerical superiority against the ROC.

Tell me about it 😮