anandai dont think the HAL AJT is going to be selected, the aircraft was specificaly designed for Indian requirements. the aircraft also seems a but to light and underpowered.
i still suggest a joint deal with Belgium (and possibly Germany) on a new European platform, preferably the AerMacchi M-346 (or M-345 (aka M-311) if budget doenst allow it)
althought the Hawk 120 is also a strong contender (and an adaptable and proven design) i think it would be better to invest in a newer design.
in my opinion, M-346 and PC-21 are the best choices if you want to stay with a Euro platform.
HAL AJT build as intermediate-advanced trainer. For LIFT Indian already choose HAWK. Point is, the prototype uses French engine, and choosing it can be used as leverage to secure Rafale’s largest deal outside French ever. Thus it can be used as alternate for PC-21 and can take some of training sylabus on present Alpha Jet.
After that if still needed then French can choose to take small number of LIFT or work somekind of joint deal with Italy or even UK on joint LIFT usage.
After all choosing M-346 or HAWK or KAI T-50 will not provide any leverage for future Rafale market, this one can.
anandaRelative cheap, can be fitted with French engine, and can help seal Rafale work-sharing negotiations with HAL and pave way on satisfying any Indian domestic opposition for finalization on Rafale deal. [ATTACH=CONFIG]217865[/ATTACH]
anandaHAL HJT-36 Sitara..That will smooth their Rafale ToT problem with HAL, and smoothing the final Indian Rafale deal…After all the prototype already used Snecma Larzac turbofan engine, even though Indian AF opted for more powerful Saturn AL-55I.
anandaThis is daft.
The comparison is my neighbour has 20 tanks, 20 warships, 20 flankers and some thermonuclear weapons and I have a good rifle. As if my neighbour would give a #$#$ about my rifle.
Anyone who thinks 12 F/A-50s or even 100 F/A-50s deters a super power is smoking crack.
After all those Iraqis had some very shiny toys in 1991 ala Mirage F1EQ, Roland, much-vaunted MiG-29, chemical weapons, SCUDS and the Republic Guard.
That didn’t deter the USA from annihilating them.
Right..again you turned my point from what really are. My argument on the riffle is that simply your seriousness to defend your own home.
My 20 sq Flankers argument is to counter your argument that 100 Australian Hornet is pointless if Australia northern neighbor is much stronger than Australia. Again my argument say that those 100 Hornet still show any potential invader to Australia that Australia is not a easy cookies to chew, and invading Australia will cost you.
Your argument is clearly a Pacifist or more a ‘quitter’ argument..Saying that since my potential adversaries is much stronger than me..and that’s no point for me to build any defense. Just open my door and let anybody invade my home, kill me, and rape my family.
12 FA-50 will not deter China..Nobody in here especially me saying that it will. But it will show China (or any potential adversary to Philippines), that Filipino is serious in defending their home..What’s wrong with that ?
Your argument simply stated that any weak nation (especially poverty driven one) is simply can’t be allowed to build their own defense simply because it’s does not make sense..It will not deter any potential Invader to invade you..
Yes War will come no matter how prepared are you on defense, if the adversaries want to invade you. But it’s not the point, The point is the right for a weak poverty driven nation to invest on defense. It will not cause serious adversaries for much stronger opponents, but it will create self esteem on that weak poverty driven nation that they are serious on their own defense. It can create more confidence on them-self for their future nation building.
Something that someone from a relative richer more developed nation like you simply takes for granted.
anandaIf I’m living in poverty with no access to medical treatment, water, sewerage, jobs, education or there’s the risk of some Islamist rebel coming to my village and gunning me and my family down, then why I am I concerned with a Tom Clancy-esque Chinese invasion, especially over some rocks I’ve never seen and which won’t bring any benefits to me due to extremely corrupt nature of my government?
Oh and 100 F/A-18s aren’t going to stop China/Indonesia/Scary Nuclear Super power if they want to come and take over my small fry little country.
So isn’t it better to improve the economic and security of local population rather than buy some shiny toys so air force guys can whizz around pretending to be Tom Cruise in Top Gun and el Presidente can say “look I’ve just brought 12 planes with tax payers dollars so I can defend you from a nuclear super power with 1,000s of planes and hundreds of warships”?
Come on, if an Opportunist Nationalistic Soekarno heir taking absolute control in Indonesia right now, has more than 20 sq of Flankers, with Nuclear armed (after all he’s a Soekarno heir, he will not mind the rest of Indonesia starving to death as long as he got his toys).. Those 100 Hornet with effective armed forces (even smaller than Indonesia in this scenario) will give massage that Australia is a tough cookies to chew. It will give the Indonesian fanatics President time to think.
The point is, even if Australia is in Philippines ‘relative’ poverty conditions, some sense of National defense still need being upheld by Australia. You may have poverty, but if you have belligerent neighbor in your door step, you need to show that neighbor that you have the will to defend your own home.
You may only have a riffle to show, but how your neighbor will think you are serious if that riffle is an old neglected rusty one, that doubtful can shoot more than twice. However if you have a good reliable riffle, even your neighbor have much better and more numerous riffle, he will see on your seriousness defending your own home.
anandaYour overestimating impact of Indonesia on SEATO.
Indonesia by 1965 was Western aligned. SEATO continued to exist to 1977.
And USA was heavily committed to anti-Communist containment in Vietnam and was increasing it’s commitment.
In fact SEATO was still around whilst mini-domino collapse was happening with whole of Indochina going over to Communists (this led to Russian naval base being installed in Vietnam).
I’m not overestimating anything. What I’m saying by the 70’s SEATO even though still exists, already losing significance. However I’m just saying that situation will not be the same, if by the 70’s Indonesia become communists (a.k.a PKI’s won, and Soekarno being driven by his aggressive policy become more and more anti western). If that happen SEATO need especially for the rest of non communists SEA Nation become increasingly significant.
Off course there are major ex colonial power influences on SEATO inceptions, but the fact that US uses SEATO as part of their containment policy is also true. Soekarno Nuclear ambitions is not a farce, by the time Seoharto takes power, the US come dismantling unfinished plutonium breeder reactor (fortunately still only less than 30% on work) in Serpong area, and by 70’s help Indonesia getting research reactor as replacement. It’s clear on some of IAEA report on the 70’s (read their hard copy report but still can’t find the link).
If that happen, Australia will go Nuclear, and SEA will not be on the same situation in the 70’s.
Condition changes that’s make SEATO loses significance and thus resulted on disbandment. I’m not saying Indonesia is the only factor, but the fact Indonesia did not go communists is one of the major factor.
anandaIf I was living in Philippines I’d sooner want poverty alleviated or the threat of being gunned down by Abu Sayaf Islamists rather than a dozen planes to fly about over Manila at Presidential parades.
And just on that if Australia was in the same boat, I’d gladly scrap all those F/A-18s to improve living standards or provide resources for combating widespread terrorism.
If Australia in similar boat with Philippines situation at the moment, means also Australia Northern neighbor has aggressive nationalistic Policy with Nuclear ambitions (wait that Soekarno’s in the 60’s), and armed to the teeth.
Would you then willing to let the Hornet’s goes and just wait for the mercy of good old uncle sam to the rescue ?
anandaIndonesia is in denial about the killings (just like Turkey is about Armenian genocide).
Anyhow Indonesia admits to killing at least 80,000 people as part of some great patriotic rebellion. Also the killings were not done as part of some mechanical slaughter system ala Germany or Cambodia or USSR but rather a lot more scattered and “personal” in approach (much like elements of Chinese Cultural Revolution).
As for open country, open in name only.
Who’s in denial about the killings..?? In my posts I clearly say there are slaughtered..However I questioned the number..Right now it is just the saying of leftist activists on the 500,000, 1 mio, or even more on that..but nobody can show the proof of the number..
In thousands..definitely..in tens of thousands..probable..more than that unlikely…and whoever say more than tens of thousands..can’t show the proof..
That’s what the killing happen..in separate incidents..in villages mostly being done by PKI’s rival as retribution from previous PKI’s atrocities. Off course the PKI’s members that still live right know deny their atrocities..and those are that being circulated by the overseas media and portraying PKI’s as innocent victim.
And yes, the Indonesian Media presently is more Open than most of SEA media. Is just the matter can you show the proof, or just another talk relaying what PKI’s victim says
What Soeharto done is much more effective then slaughtered…He practically create a National hatred for communism..make communism as pariah of society..and that what clearly pacified millions of PKI’s members and sympathizers. They can not get decent job, their children can not got decent school..Nobody wants to socialize with them, many families would not let their children marry to someone whose parents was members of PKI’s or have ‘questionable’ relationship with PKI and its organizations. That’s why, many Indonesians has show not much interest on killings on PKI’s members, since most of us see the numbers exaggerated, and many of us still see the PKI’s members deserved what got in to them. No one can justifies the killings, but no much sympathies either for PKI’s fate. It’s not denial, it’s simply do not care, since many public still see PKI got what they deserve. That’s what Soeharto big achievement in Politics, a national hatred to communism, that still strong even today.
If Soeharto slaughtered them in the claimed numbers, it’s just make martyrs and sympathy. However make them pariah of society pacified their capabilities to acted, and their will to resists. And that’s how Soeharto most effective ways on pacifying what’s used to be one of the largest Communist party in the world.
On the matter of SEATO..again is lost it’s importance because the main thinking of creating SEATO (which is containment of communism in SEA) is gone..Many analysts agree that after the demise of Soekarno and destruction of PKI and Indonesian leftist..the questions of communism spread in SEA is lost is significance. By 70’s Many already see that communism will contain on Indochina and will not spread across SEA.
Malaysia, Singapore, and Brunai did not join formally with SEATO, but as those three still has British Military umbrella, then no need they join SEATO, since they already got British umbrella anyway. Yes Soekarno not a major issue on the inceptions of SEATO, but become major one, in the 59-65, especially when Soekarno policy become more and more aggressive. Indonesia is not a major power, but so does Vietnam (which clearly main US concern), and so does most of SEATO members except US, UK, and French. However that’s not the issue in here. The issue is containment of Communism in SEA. In West eyes, Vietnam become communist is a major blow, Indochina become Communist is disaster, but if Indonesia that control most of SEA major shipping line become communists..that beyond disaster for Westerm interest in SEA.
If that happen (Indonesia become communists), then SEATO will stay relevant and not being disbanded in 70’s. Simply that.
anandaYour equivalence between isolated incidents of PKI violence, and the systematic mass torture and genocide of up to a million people is absurd. And the PKI never lost Sukarno — he attempted to shield them for the two years 1965-1967 that he was nominally still President, but his support was largely ineffective as the Army controlled the media and foreign powers (including Australia) cooperated in re-broadcasting Army and NU propaganda exhorting the slaughter of communists.
This thread talk about Philippines AF, so I’m not try to put it out of topic. Let me put this way. Do you have any proof that there are up to million people being slauthered ? Where are the mass grave ? You can’t slaughtered million people without some trace. Soeharto era has been ended for nearly 15 years, but nobody that accused thet number can show up untill now where the evidence that support it.
This is open country now, they can show the evidence if really there are ones. They put numbers of carnage that match the khmer rouge slaughtered. However khmer rouge evidence is clear, where’s those Indonesian communists million dead victims laid ? Even the Chille left can show evidence on Pinochet missing victims laid (and their number is much lower than supposedly PKI ones)..but even until now the PKI symphetisers can’t even show one singgle ‘solid’ evidence that can be put not just to court, but even to media. Indonesia still has many fault, but the media is considered one of the most open in SEA now. The Media will gladly broadcast it if they can show one singgle mass grave. But not singgle evidence until now, except just continue leftist propaganda and accusations.
And saying that PKI slaughtered is just simply isolated evidence show that you choose just heard the Indonesian leftist propaganda. You don’t know how many so called incidents that happen in the villages in Java, Sumatra and other islands being targeted to NU, Masyumi and some even to other leftist that won’t follow PKI line. PKI demise off course the instruments of Army effort backed by their Western support. But do not put a picture PKI is innocence victims in here. Their rival know very well, if PKI that won the rivalry, very big chances that they are the one that being put away. For those political factions at that time, is them or us that going away. The Army can not achieve PKI demised that fast, if the other PKI political rival did not harbour so much hatred to PKI that time.
No, they don’t lose Soekarno support, but the support it self is GONE, along with the demise of Soekarno influences.
Now, can we back to Philippines AF ?
anandaYou mean they were slaughtered.
Well, PKI (Indonesian Communist Party) is not an innocence victim. They at the height Soekarno power did manage some slaughtered on their rivals especially from Muslim Parties. So no surprises when they lost their Soekarno’s backing, their rival then come to finished them. No love coming on the rivalry of PKI with their political rival.
anandaNo it’s not. There is currently no active treaty that binds everyone to collective defence like NATO. The Asian version was South East Asia Treaty Organisation (US, Australia, New Zealand, Pakistan, Philippines, Thailand, France and UK) and it was dissolved in 1977 as it was a complete failure.
SEATO being dissolved due it lost it’s importance, not because it’s a failure. After all SEATO being created with one major thinking (at least one of them) on containing Soekarno’s Indonesia. With Soekarno have regional ambition and backed with superior military relative to SEA neighborhood in the 60’s, continue leaning to the Left with strong possibility went in to communist camp, and also have nuclear ambition (and got help from USSR on that matter), something that US want to contain, considering also situation in Vietnam.
With Soekarno being push down by US Friendly Soeharto, the Indonesian Communist party (once number three in the world from membership) being totally disbanded and pacified, Soeharto then tone down Indonesia ambition and join ASEAN, the need for SEATO then relegated to less importance.
Philippines need a lot of thing right now, however despite US umbrella, as a nation on it’s own, Philippines do need to show they at least have minimum capabilities and ‘will’ to provide their own defense. At this moment, continue neglect by Philippines politicians for their own national defense, only creating continue down fall for Philippines Armed Force capabilities (and from some local Philippines sites..also declining Moral and self esteem).
There are no illusions on any ASEAN members, that even they manage to have combined armed forces operations (which something at this moment less likely), their combined strength will create significant deterrence to China. However what they need to show is the ‘will’ by individual nation that they will not be an easy cookies to swallow.
China right now facing potential multiple front if they decided at this moment taking on South China Sea by force. If Vietnam, Malaysia, and Philippines even manage just to contain China for several days on South China Sea. then it will give enough time for Japan, Australia, ROK, or Taiwan and most importantly US to give China significant counter move on several fronts. After all no one except China wants China to dominate South China Sea.
Philippines just want to rebuild it’s long neglected Air Force. Nothing wrong with that. It won’t be able to counter China, but it will be a significant step in rebuilding their own self esteem.
anandaThere are conflicting report from various media sources on whether it is TA-50 OR FA-50 that actually will be procured. Personally I tend to believe the Philippines AF requairement will be more in line witn TA-50 since they need to rebuild their fast jets operational support capabilities first. However I do see some political pressure domestically for getting Fighters capability, thus make FA-50 more attractive for domestic politics.
Anyway, Philippines Mindef track record on actually finishing the procurement deal is not that good recently.
anandaIf North Vietnam AF got Mig 23, at best it will only operational 1 sq by 74-75. Won’t get much impact in Vietnam war, but it will made impact when China invade Vietnam in 79.
anandaHe is actually right. Chinese GDP (PPP) is $12.38 trillion (2012 est.). GDP (OER) is $8.26 trillion but this figure understates the actual level of China’s output vis-a-vis the rest of the world; For China, the best measure for comparing output across countries is the GDP at purchasing power parity.
Yes, that’s the number that being circulated for example by CIA World Factbook. However there are still valid arguments on what a country economic power should be count on, PPP, OER, or net domestic ownership minus foreign ownership, which some Investment Bankers calculated around $ 6.6 trillion.
What ever it is, claiming Huge GDP (PPP) compared to UK, German, Italy, and claim that as basis saying that China R&D power much bigger to those Euro G7 nations is ridiculous.
Point is UK, Germany and Italian R&D power has still good based and had proven technological expertise. While China R&D based still developing (although on huge scale). Not a solid based claiming that China already overtake those Euro nation on R&D capabilities.
But again you already stated on your last post that China still need a lot of catching up to do, just sometimes somebody can not accept that.
Anyway, back to Pakistan AF, I do think at J-10B and JF-17 will be the dominant fighter on their arsenal in the future. Well with the money they have, they can’t choose other than that. Not much hope they can get more F-16 MLU and F-16 Block 52 from current inventory, unless the US willing to subsidize more.
anandaReally? So the F-2 isn’t getting upgraded radars? And the JMSDF doesn’t have any shipborne AESA radars in service? Japan isn’t building AAMs with AESA radar seekers? :highly_amused:
Why bother swerve, the guy is beyond enlightment. Put a photo of claimed Chinese AESA, without any proof it work, then claim Japanese worked AESA is outdated (compared offcourse this fable Chinese AESA)..ooo and also put Chinese GDP nearly twice actual number..and based on that claim combined euro research power is miniscule to China..
No point argue with lost cause 😎
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