anandaLooking on various thread on various forum on the matter of Chinese first real carrier operations. Something always coming, the constant downgrading on China achievement. China may be begin their carrier by finishing Russian/Ukraine unfinished Varyag. China perhaps copy all of SU-33 design. However for someone who did not have experience on operating full scale Carrier before, they show that they can catching up fast with proper standard carrier operations.
That’s preaty good marks on any book I suppose.
anandaGripen now actively being targeted for F-5 replacement by SAAB. Gripen already got F-5 replacement market with Thailand and Swiss. They are targeting Brazil for F-5 replacement now marketing Malaysia and Indonesia where both of them already floating intentions in the market for F-5 replacement.
So with Mig-21 and F-5 capabilities are simillar, it’s then logical for Gripen to be marketed for MIG-21 replacement too. It will give much harder for FC-1or FTC-2000 to compete for Mig-21 replacement with customers that have budget for Gripen (and not included as US pariah ).
anandaInteresting concept. But for my 20c worth, I suspect they’ll go with a hull and propulsion system derived from, or shared with, the Japanese Soryu class (or its replacement) combined with USN’s CCS Mk2 or its replacement (as with Collins) and weapons.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/navy-eyeing-off-new-japanese-submarines-20120708-21pgb.html
Well then the choice are:
1. Soryu based SSK design or,
2. Baracuda based SSN design.
Aussies politically will have to decide with the choice. Go diesel with a design that the availability still in questions (unless Japanese did make their mind on Arms export), or SSN design that meet their plan capability and I do believe open to export or licensed production.
anandaThe prime export candidates for PAK FA are Vietnam and Indonesia, neither of which are going to opt for a Chinese aircraft…
Yes there’s potential for PAK-FA on that. Rosoboron clearly aimed that in the recent Indodefence. After all if KFX program did not come to fruition, then after 2020 Indonesia choice for Flanker replacement is PAK-FA.
anandaAll this talk of a Hawk rebuild, makes me think they are going to rebuild the Hawk.
Is that crazy?:confused:
Perhaps T-X become catalised for BAE to launch Super Hawk. It’s a gamble though to financed that on the current economic situation. However Hawk increasingly being left out by the new boys (T-50, M-346, Yak-140), in such I do believe BAE internally found there are limits they can do on upgrading Hawk to meet competitors without redesign the Airframe.
anandaNow, the military collaboration agreement was just an assumptive matter of discussion to try to re-estabilish a minimum of diplomatic (and trade) relationship between the two countries. Without such relationship even the trade of basic goods could suffer, favouring other countries.
Again, I think we are discussing on a project which has not a real base.
This thread talking about UAE financing another supersonic LIFT project. Whether the project based on something that still on paper (like Novi Aviation) or upgrading something that already fly before, the questions is: Will someone still want to bankrolled/taking financial risk on a project the financial future still a big questions ?
Take T/X, unquestionably the biggest and richest potential LIFT market on decades to come. I know it’s being discussed on separate thread, however is there potential someone will produce something new to enter the market besides existing player like T-50 or M-346 ?
In other word, regardless Boeing claim that they will produce new LIFT prototype to enter T/X, it’s more likely the candidates that will enter T/X competitions are upgrade versions of existing LIFT already in the market.
If for T/X, the possibility of an entirely new LIFT will enter is questionable, how big possibility of a foreign entity (say UAE) will bankrolled Serbian new LIFT (with a questionable market potential) can be ?
For that I agree with you, that the purpose of this thread on talking about UAE bankrolling Serbian LIFT program is something that has no base to become reality anyway. Mind you I’m not talking about Serbian capability on producing supersonic LIFT, but more on possibility UAE will bankrolled it.
anandaNot trying rubbing salt, however this discussion on trying to revive some old project in my mind related to what Habibie (Indonesian 3rd President and founder of DI/Indonesian Aerospace) effort on trying reviving N-250 and N-2130 project.
Indonesian Government up until now did not want to provide money for that project anymore. In their mind even though N-250 already has 2 flying prototype and N-2130 is (according to Habibie claim) already finish development stage and entering prototype stages, they (Indonesian Gov’t) only want to provide financing for IAe on further production of CN-235 and license production of C-295.
Thus, Habibie now build his own company and try to find new Investor for reviving his 2 projects. fyi, N-250 is in ATR 72 class, while N-2130 in A-318 or Embraer 195 class. In paper, the market potential of an already flying ATR class aircraft is bigger than a supersonic LIFT. However Habibie will faced a tough sell overseas trying to attract foreign money. He already lobbying hard in the Gulf and Asia, but so far no money being promised for reviving his projects.
If getting foreign fund especially in this kind of Economic situation for something that already Flying and has big potential market, are very difficult, then figure on the difficulty on selling something that still in the Paper, need much, much more fund to developed, and only taking much smaller market potential will be. It’s close to impossible in getting foreign fund.
Just like N-250 and N-2130, Novi Avion chances to get fly if it’s own country (Indonesia in case of N-250/N-2130 and Serbia in case of Novi Avion), willing to take financial risk on developing them. Is simple as that.
anandaAn F-5E replacement shouldn’t need more than an F125 engine. The F404 dramatically escalates the costs.
Well if you look the relative position of F-5 at their time, then a single engine F404 or even F414 is the right replacement for this time period. KFX being plan with twin F414 or twin EJ200 as it is aimed replacing F-16, F-4, and F-5 altogether. However if they then decided to reduce the target for only F-5, then the F-50 design even with single F-414 will still be viable.
anandaWith one of the leading critics of the KF-X likely to become Defence Minister soon, the entire project may end up being shelved in favour of a foreign design that is modified to suit South Korea’s requirements. And if that happens, affordability for exports may not be such an easy thing to achieve, and a export-veto may put a further spanner in future sales.
Not if they go with single seat FA-50 which right now stand as possible alternative by KAI in case KFX design did not materialize. This is the design that already more or less ready. Unconfirmed report indicate that KAI already discussing with DI on possible using this design as alternative if KFX design that being worked out right now being considered uneconomic to be further developed.
After all the initial thinking for KFX is for replacing F-5E/F. This design will be suitable enough on replacing F-5 E/F. I know the design of KFX now being stretched on replacing F-4 and F-16, however if they then decided, just build KFX with F-5 as replacement target then upgrading TA-50 will be enough, and can be attractive for the export market.
anandaAs for the T-50 based light fighter for export, Lockheed doesn’t have the rights for that as all rights to T-50 outside of the US market belongs to the Korean government and Lockheed gets the exclusive US rights with a varying work sharing ratio agreement between two. But fear not, the Korean government is not interested in doing an F-50 as they have no use for one.
Well if KFX (1st Picture) has not materialized, then the single seat F-50 (2nd pict) can take over the program.
KFX if materialized can be alternative for anyone who can’t afford F-35 but still want what basically US/Western Tech (with Asian flavor) fighter.
anandaWhat is unclear is just how much research and development funding Boeing plans to sink into its development before bidding a design to the Air Force. Significant financial pressure at the Pentagon is forcing the service to reduce its R&D spending as much as possible. Boeing may have to underwrite some of its design work, as it is doing with the KC-46A development, to balance out the cost of its design with that of one of the off-the-shelf options flying today.
Well the article also stated the huge challenge that even a giant like Boeing has to seriously think before entering the market with new clean sheet design.
Just wandering though if Boeing can buy the Mako design. Or if not Boeing can be BAE (rather than have to tinker on Super Hawk or try to squeeze some more potential from old Hawk design).
anandaPolitics don’t favor the T-50, because both Italy and UK are JSF partners, while the early word has its that Korea rejected the F-35. Secondly, the US prime contractor for the USAF T-50 would be Lockheed Martin, which is hardly loved at the Pentagon.
How much UK and Italy will buy any US build fighters in near future compare to ROK ? And who says ROK already abandoned F-35. The overall project of ROK F-16 and F-15K and also the next F-X program surpass both Italy and UK order for US build fighters. As it stand now, even though Eurofighter trying to lobby ROK on their promised support on indigenous ROK-Indonesia KFX program, the more likely F-X winner seems either F-35 or F-15 SE.
With both F-22 and F-35 are Lockheed fighters, the chances for Lockheed to win T-X with T-50 derivative is in my mind higher than anyone else.
anandaAnanda,
I don’t think there’s really enough export market to justify the development cost of an AMX-NG. If there was, then finding the right engine for it would be difficult. A non-afterburning M88, like the F404, doesn’t offer extra thrust, & the weight saving is not great enough to increase performance significantly. It’d have to be a non-afterburning EJ200 or F414, or a higher-thrust M88. And developing a higher-thrust model costs money. Alenia would probably prefer to develop a light strike M346, if it saw a market, so their co-operation would not be guaranteed.
Navalising it would cost a lot & be pointless. Where’s the market? The last carrier such an aircraft could be useful on isn’t going to last long enough to need it, & nobody’s building anything similar.
Swerve, I’ve put AMX NG not due to it’s ideal solution, however due to limited number the Brazilian FX-2 project number is vis a vis the Brazilian wants for Tech Transfer.
Seems Brazil wants to have comprehensive tech packages including engine, however the price is ‘only’ 36 plane compared to Indian deal of 126. That’s why I put a discussion on possible using AMX upgrade (which I called it AMX-NG) as additional price for the project to satisfy the possible contractors willingness for comprehensive Tech Transfer packages on FX-2.
There’s no question/doubt in my mind, that economically Brazil can afford the similar deal size as Indian offered to the market.
anandaThe M88 is not as large as the F404 and if the goal is sovereignty then they won’t want to use F404.
Will the French provide better deal for M88 if Rafale win FX-2 ? Compared the US deal for F414 if Shornet being picked ? I put this since you put the question of Sovereignty which I take the push effect of the deal to Brazilian Industry.
How much tech transfer that Brazil will get if the overall deal is only for 36 fighter in FX-2 ? If the deal is combined with development of ‘say’ AMX NG, then perhaps French or US will throw the engine deal Tech Transfer as part of FX-2.
I do believe just most you gent’s already put that, putting a non after burning version of F414 or M88 will provide boost to AMX as relevant light weight fighter for some time in the future as 21st century A4. I already stated on my previous post, that relying with Spey already cost AMX some potential export deal back in the 90’s.
As put comparison to A4, how big the effort that will be needed to developed say ‘navalised’ AMX NG that will replace Brazilian Navy A4 in their carrier ? Or put another way, developed AMX NG just like A4, in sense operating both in land and carrier.
anandaTwo hardpoints on each wing plus one on each wing tip, is the best that Fighter the size of Hawk 200 can handle anyway.
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