anandaWell my whole point is that the J20 will never be up for sale, so of course its not going to break into any markets, I have no idea where you got the idea I would think the J20 would be offered for export at all.
I’m sorry, isn’t the thread basically talking about potential export sales of J-20 ? I’m not talking about what you think if J-20 will be exported, but talking ‘in-line’ with the thread topic of potential export of J-20. In which I said that China still have difficulty to break in to ‘non-traditional’ defense market for it’s relatively higher tech defense products.
You can’t expect to ask for Hard Effidence (if you mean quantitative data) for how market perceptions based. Market perception is the matter of building ‘trust’. Building ‘trust’ need more effort to build and not just flaunting around saying to a pottential customer I’ve a good track record on reliability and after sales. You have to prove it, in which one customers satisfaction standard will not be necessary same with other ‘potential’ customers standard, especially if that potential customers still have ‘trust’ issue with you.
anandado not mind Plawolf. she has a tendency to start name calling people who don’t agree with her views. she’s not a bad person, just very patriotic.
most of us here appreciate the realistic input you provide to this forum.
Thanks, and no problemo. I’m simply stated that entering a new users/market, you have to prepared all the way to change their perceptions and win their trust.
Indonesian Aerospace (IPTN at that time) learn the hard way, when they decided to build and advance commuter (for early 90’s standard) N-250 with many new system (on commuter), glass cockpit, Fly by wire control (at that time only Airbus A-320 as civil aircraft used that), however they run out money (since all the money invest only in development) thus have no money left to prepared a long term/protrecting marketing campaign that needed when a relatively new comer entering the market. The result simply no sell, and no chances the project can moved in to the market.
For many non-traditional potential Chinese defense market, that’s what Chinese producers come on their mind. A relative new commer, or someone that they never intended to think as reliable sources. You need more effort including reducing much of your margin to enter that market, and prepared for long term guarantee (for instances),etc. You simply can’t expected to be treated equally with other more established players in that market no matter how good you think your products. It’s what they/market think (perceptions) that matter.
anandaat least you should concentrate on what you insisted. Did I mishear “techinical” earlier? this is quite point-jumping, although everyone knows you are talking about building reputation.
In Procurement process (and not only in Indonesian Min-Def), the matter of ‘economical’ cost to run ussually include on Techinal stages/catagory of procurement process. People ussually decided on ‘economical’ after considering; reliability of technical (engine, electrical system etc) to considered ‘in between’ service period. Also other cost (besides fuel economy) that related to ground handling, etc. So. I’m not point-jumping.
Look, I never said on ‘low quality’ of Chinese defense product, since I’m not a users. What I said is ‘the perception’ on the non-traditional Chinese product users on the reliability (especially long term) of Chinese defense products.
Since this thread talking about possibility of Export market for High Tech China defense product (i,e J-20), then I said the Chinese producers need more effort to ‘win’ the trust of those market.
In sense they need to do more in Marketing Entancement. Example Hyundai; when entering US and other big market, they ussually provide more ‘free’ support and other discount to attract and win the trust of the customers. Effort that names like Mercedes Benz, BMW, or Audi need not to do as much.
CATIC perhaps knows that Indonesian Air Force ussualy used derivative of LIFT Jets for Light Fighters (at present Light Fighters being used is Hawk Mk 200, since the current LIFT Jets is Hawk Mk 53). Thus perhaps CATIC sees the opportunity to find partners in developing L-15 based Light Fighters, just as KAI try to do with T-50.
Something that perhaps The Russian feel not to do, since they maybe think that Market ‘Trust’ in Indonesia on their product already higher vis a vis to Chinese ones..or South Korean ones for that matter..that they don’t feel the need to go further like CATIC or KAI.
Or perhaps they simply think, they can find bigger Partner if they need be.
Whatever the reasons, I take CATIC as example to show that if you want to break to ‘non-traditional’ market then more effort need to do, to win the ‘trust’. Since in the Marketing (even for Defense or Civil products); Winning the market perception and acceptances can constitute perhaps 50%-60% of the battle (well different Marketing Guru can come-up with different numbers, but all seems show Significant part of the battle).
anandaHi Ananda
I am interested in knowing what were some of the problems with the FTC-2000?
On paper it is a late MIG21 derivative, with relatively powerful turbojet engines capable
of cruising at supersonic speeds, relatively up to date cockpit, and can accommodate a
decent radar.:confused:
From what I heard, it’s not economical enough for LIFT long term operation, regardless it’s one of the cheapest in the contest. Also again, there’s some doubt on the Armed Procurement Commitee on how long China will continue supporting FTC-2000, since at same time they begin offering L-15.
Still, the Commitee also has not included L-15 on the next stage, but they still listen though to Chinese offer.
On the latest Zhuhai, one of the official of CATIC Mr. Liu Jianhai offered another packages as Join Development on what he called L-15 ICA (Indonesian Combat Fighter), as development to L-15 if Indonesian can considered L-15 as LIFT.
CATIC offered to developed Light Fighter to counter KAI moves that besides offering DI/IAe parts of KFX projects, they also offering to Joint Development on Indonesian versions of F/A-50 if T-50 win LIFT projects.
Those offer did not come From Russia on Yak-130 in which even though some Air Force Generals prefer Yak-130 as LIFT, the Min-Def still reserved their final Judgement on LIFT contest.
That’s what I’m trying to say on China products on ‘non-traditional’ market…(which in turn mostly got some ‘hot’ wounded ‘nationalistic’ pride repply). China producers need to go ‘FURTHER’ just like what CATIC try, to win more trust on their products with ‘non-traditional’ users. What’s CATIC trying to ‘win’ is more trust that they willing to go all the way in order to support the reliability of their products.
Can L-15 will be considered later on..well will see..The contest now still open. But if L-15 can somehow ‘nudge’ ahead, it’s not because ‘the price’, but because CATIC able to change the perception on Chinese Product Reliability. Will CATIC can do that..will see.
Opening the ‘non-traditional’ market in which still have doubt, of course different than Traditional Market that already ‘Trust’ Chinese products.
BTW; On the beginning of my posts I already say that Chinese defense products on ‘lower-tech’ catagory already abble to enter Indonesian market. However the ‘Higher-Tech’ products that’s still have difficulty. Something that seems some of the repply already ’emotionally’ ignore that :rolleyes::D
anandaAt the end of the day, defense ministers will base their purchase decisions on facts and not the baseless perceptions of some internet nobody.
That’s right..so No matter what you say or I say..in the Internet..will not matter with the decision makers in each Defense Ministry.
You don’t believe in the market Perceptions..well it’s up to you..you want to believe that China Defense products already at par with Russian and Western products..it’s also up to you.
However I have a privelage to talk with some official on Armed Forces of few SEA countries (which of course will not be disclosed by me in this forum)..that reflect their doubt of the long term reliability of China’s defense products.
That market perception that still need to be address by the Chinese producers if they want to break significantly to other non traditional market.
You say that China will make different product according to the wallet of the buyer..Well tell me if China already make significant impact on breaking to ‘Rich’ non-traditional market ?
Selling some weapons to rich gulf states does not mean China already making impact on their market..How many percentage of the weapon espacially High Tech Weapon that China be able to fill those market ?
If it’s still less than 5%..then it’s not significant break. And how do you expect they (the richmarket) will buy J-20 (with BTW is the main topic in this thread).
anandaF-16 failed IAF MMRCA bid, so F-16 is not able to “pass technical test”? OK, I see.
Who’s talking about F-16 and MMRCA…I’m talking about Indonesian LIFT contest. Are you saying that F-16 now comparable to FC-2000 and L-15 ??
Oooo..welll :diablo:
anandaI have no idea where this notion of bad after sales support for Chinese products comes from.
I have never heard of the Pakistanis, Egyptians, Sri Lankans or anyone else how has bought Chinese weapons complain about poor after sales support.
On the contrary, it is often the Russians that are blamed for having bad after sales support.
Pakistan , Egypt and Sri Lanka can be catagorize as China’s Traditional market. My comment was to answered Hammer questions whether China’s products can do well in China’s ‘non-traditional’ export market.
Please tell me if China’s defense products already doing well in the Big ‘non-tradtional’ market like Brazil or Turkey for instances ?? If China still have difficulty to enter Small ‘non-traditional’ market like Indonesia…can it’s going to do well in the ‘Richer’ defense market like Brazil or Turkey..??
Up now China defense products selling well in the trditional market. However the question from Hammer that I’m try to answered is whether China can breack through to ‘non-traditional’ market.
And I’m simply said that present record show China still have difficulty breaking to ‘new’ market outside China’s traditional ones, and one of the reasons is the perception from some of those market on China’s quality and after-sell reliability.
That’s what China need to adress..and no matter how much you said otherwise in the Internet..will not change those market perceptions.
anandaI’m curious what are these”many Chinese defense products” have been promoted to Indonesia? besides QW3, C802, make few examples
The lattest Chinese Jets that already included on procurement tenders but failed the test was FC 2000 for LIFT. After FC 2000 failed to next stage, Chinese then put offer for L-15, to be included in the next stage (allongside L-159, Yak-130, and T-50 that pass first stage), however the procurement team still did not want to include L-15 on the next stage up until now.
China also try to enter Submarine tender, however Navy procurement team reject it on the basis of late arival on the tender (officially), but unofficially the Navy simply did want to considered Chinese subs.
Those two are the latest tender. There are also some electronics and sensors and other offer already submit and discussed, that I’m not going to disclose now since it’s not an open tender yet. Look, China’s already try to get into ‘non-traditional’ defense market like Indonesia, but it’s simply not going to be easy just on the basis of price to convince ‘non-traditional chinese defense product users’ to use their product.
This thread talking about possibility of the latest High Tech (in this sense J-20) of China on taking World Export market. I’m only stated that China need much more work to convince ‘non-traditional’ export market of China’s defense products on the quality and reliability of their ‘relative’ high-tech products. China making progress on the lower-tech products to some of ‘non-traditional’ market like Indonesia. But in my oppinion it’s still more work to be done by the Chinese to convince those market on higher tech products…Let alone their latest/highest tech defense products.
So good luck for China to try, I’m just simply want to watch if China ablle to change the ‘non-traditional export ‘market Perception, on their high-tech defense products. Without able to change that perception on the ‘non-traditional’ users, its very difficult for China to take on world defense market since those ‘non-traditional users’ of chinese products still constitute the largets market especially in the third world nation. Afterall those ‘non-traditional’ market in South America and Asia still provide much larger market compared to what is traditional Chinese defense market in Africa and some in South/South East Asia.
PS:
Indonesian ‘technical’ standard in Defense procurement is still lower compared to bigger and more competitive ‘non-traditional’ Chinese defense export market, like say Brasil, Turkey, etc. If Chinese defense products still have difficulty to enter market like Indonesia, and how it’s going to fare well on larger and more competitive ‘non-traditional’ market ?
anandaHi guys, I believe that at this stage the Chinese fighter export industry still lags behind the US, Europpean and Russian industries in what I’sd call “export tradition” and post sale support. I belive the only “considerable” air force that has opted for chinese fighters is still Pakistan with Iran and Egypt coming relatively further down the road from Pak… I sure can’t see Chinese fighters breaking into, and in relevant numbers, the South American and/or South Asian fighter markets… Maybe some 15 years ahead… If Egypt decides to buy a slew of J-10Bs for instance and/or Iran goes for the J-20 this would certainly open the doord for many new clients such as Indonesia and Malaysia or even Venezuela… Until then Russia with the Su-35S and the PAK/FA would certainly be the ones to be beat in the 3rd world fighter market.
This is just my 2 cents…
Coments?
Regards,
Hammer
Agree, that’s what I’m trying to say before. Investing on Fighter jets is huge investment for many Third world nations. Simmply because China can produce something cheaper, does not mean any non ‘traditional’ China customers will but it.
Some mentioned of ‘non traditional Chinese military market’ countries like Indonesia, Malaysia as potential customers for China Fighter jets products. But that’s all about. It is simply just that ‘a potential’. Much more work still needed for China to convince them (non traditional market) that their Jet Fighters are reliable enough and China also have enough reliable after the market support, in order for for those non traditional countries to change from US, Western and Russian products.
It’s not a secret that dealling with Third world countries on defense procurement can/will need some kick back/under the table incentives for the officers involved one way or the other. However that ‘murky side’ is not everything. Those ‘grey’ area come to play, when two or several contenders products got simmilar points on the ‘technical’ assesment stages. But if China can not provide enough ‘technical’ justifications and proof to satisfies the technical assesment commitee, and China Fighters will have difficulty to move to another stages in the procurement.
This ‘seems’ that happen many times for China’s fighters jets when have to compete on ‘non tarditional’ market countries. For Indonesia I know for certain, that many Chinese defense products simply can not passed ‘technical’ assesment stages. So far only lighter and lower-tech products like man-pads SAM QW-3 and C-802 SSM that can able to passed those ‘technical’ assesment stages.
anandaMalaysia unlikely to buy anything new for a long while other than more Su-30s and a western aircraft to replace the MiG-29s. Indonesia may very well end up doing something with Korea and Turkey. I don’t think either will go for the J-20 since the aircraft is designed for China’s interests, which goes against their interests.
Right now based on what the Russian offer (in Indo-Defence recently), besides more SU 30, they also begin to offer SU 35. However consider this, no matter the hard feel the TNI and Politicians have with the late US embargo, Indonesia seems will likely to end up with More F-16 than Flankers. In sense with countries in ASEAN (especially the original five), they more likely still prefer US or Western equipment with some touch of Russian flavour.
Afterall, even Indonesia still do not want to use Chinese LIFT, does it will take more time for China to change the appetite for those countries in their front end fighters asset.
anandaSome photos of Indonesian A-4E and TA-4H. All of them already grounded and being replaced by Flankers. Besides OV-10, those A-4 were the main asset for Indonesian Air Force Counter Insurgencies operations in Aceh and East Timor in the 80’s and 90’s.
anandaWhich Southeasy Asian country ordered 5 ships with Deawoo?
I’m inclined more to Thailand or Malaysia. We (Indonesia) will build our own Frigates domestically (with PAL Shipyard) and used Damen Technology. Unless Daewoo wins Submarines contract (which so far show HDW leading the bidding).
anandaProbably. AFAIK the offer is for Czech surplus single-seat L-159s rebuilt to 2-seaters.
L-159 is not the top contender anyway. The Top 2 contender for LIFT is KAI T-50, and Yak 130. Whille the Chinese FC 2000 has been drop after prelimenary round. KAI KT-1 already in the inventory replacing Turbo Mentor as Basic Trainers.
anandaI had a Rolls Royce contractor (engine designer!) flying out to USA with us today, and I just happen to drop it into the quick conversation that I had with him…he said it definately isn’t a design fault with the engine, and when I asked him what he thought it was, he theorised that the initial cause of the problem might be possibly due to volcanic ash from Mt Merapi!?
Does anyone know how far out the aircraft was from SIN when the intial problem occurred?
cloud 9, Mount Merapi is around 1000 milies from Singapore, and the Incident occured above Batam (an Indonesian Island just accross Singapore Harbour). I think it’s far fetched accused on Merapi considering the Incidents occured only few miles after leaving Singapore Air Space. Even Now the ash of Mount Merapi still not reached in to Jakarta Air Space and so far only reach around 60 miles from Jakarta.
anandaIndonesia Plans 180 Flankers Plus F-16s
Indonesia intends to acquire 180 Sukhoi Flankers and also to buy Lockheed Martin F-16s, Defense Minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro says, setting out plans for a massive expansion of the Southeast Asian country’s air combat force.
If Indonesia is serious about buying 180 Flankers, then Canberra will almost certainly fund the Royal Australian Air Force’s plan for 100 Lockheed Martin F-35s, says Andrew Davies, an analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. Until now, there was a significant chance that Australia would buy fewer F-35s.
The Sukhoi fleet will be built up by 2024, with 18 aircraft in each of 10 squadrons, Purnomo says. F-16s will replace BAE Systems Hawks, the government’s Antara news agency says in a report carrying Purnomo’s statement.
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Hi, This is my first participation on this forum. I ussually participated on other defences forum but often lurking to this forum to read Great job done by Tanggo III.
It’s seems the aviation week misquote or misinterpreted what Antara News Agency means on what the Indonesian Minister of Defences said.
The Minister actually means that Indonesia plan to increased the number of Air Force combat squadron to 10 (from 7 at this moment), which’s not a new thing since this already mentioned few years back in the long term Air Force plan.. The new things on the statement that he plans to increased the standard aircraft per squandron from 12-16 at this moment to 18.
Thus the 10 sqs will be mix fighter and not Flankers alone. Big part of the build up after 2020 plan to use KF-X if the program progress as plan. F-16 procurements means as stop gap for KF-X and that’s why some analyst agree that additional F-16 procured by Indonesian will be second hand, as transistions to KF-X.
Just to make some clarification with the news mistakes on this otherwise very excellent thread by Tanggo III.
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