sheytanelkebirI would say statistics in Iraq are still horrendous 😉 in fact because the government doesn’t collect much in the way of taxes, there’s not much incentive by the finance ministry and CBI to keep an accurate track of the private sector which is BOOMING massively (I would say far more than government sector because the main oil infrastructure improvements won’t kick in for another 2-3 years)… since the government doesn’t borrow on the international market, it has no need to “please” the “credit rating agencies” and so Iraq’s economy continues to grow without many people knowing about it (except the ones dealing with / selling to Iraq).
anyway. I don’t see typhoons OR J10Bs being sold to Iraq any time soon. 😀 Rather hoping for some SU35s and maybe SU25SM to go with the MiG35s though 😀
sheytanelkebirYet again, you’re getting your figures wrong. That $7bn ‘investment’ was a contract for $7bn placed with Hanwha by an Iraqi state body, to build 100,000 residential units. It is to be executed over seven years, i.e. $1 bn per year – but it’s running late already, due to financing hold-ups. That spending is state investment, included in government purchasing of goods & services. It is not private investment.
Tourist receipts are counted as exports, so the calculation does not exclude that sector.
I’m afraid you’ve done a lot of double counting.
You also seem to have understated social security. The department gets 13% of this year’s budget, or $15.4 bn.
not a single cent was paid from the iraqi budget to HANWHA… all the money is from deposits by Iraqi house buyers.
apologies about my error of $5bn with the social security budget!
But ultimately the story with “weapons sales” is similar to the story with all other sectors of the Iraqi economy… the “westerners” massively underplay and under-rate Iraq’s potential and pretty much refuse to entertain even participating or competing with the Asian companies in the Iraqi market. Their loss.
Since you had a look at Iraq’s budget you will see that defence imports get $5Bn for 2014 + a security budget of $18.5Bn… and you will be well aware of Iraq’s total federal cash reserves of over $100Bn deposited in Iraq and abroad (going up by about $2bn a month!)… i.e. they can afford to buy “brand new planes” far more than pretty much any EU state just about now drowning in debt and unfunded liabilities private and public debt of 600% GDP… despite having the GDP “turbochargers” of fractional reserve banking and copious consumption taxes… without which the public+private debt % would be breathtaking in nature! Yet no one says “they can’t afford aircraft”? How about India? Vietnam? Algeria? Angola? and many others… no one argues that they can’t afford weapons!
sheytanelkebirI am surprised to see the figure of 2 million tourists in Iraq yearly. What are they? Pilgrims?
yes pilgrims mostly.
sheytanelkebirSorry, but your calculation is wrong. The expenditure method of calculating GDP does not include all government spending. It is –
consumption expenditures by households (C), gross private investment spending (I), government purchases of goods and services (G), and net exports (exports minus imports EX – IM).
That is, it excludes all transfer payments by government, such as pensions & social security payments. It does include wages of state employees, as they are considered to be providing a service in return for their pay, but it is arguable that in the case of Iraq (& not only Iraq: it’s a common problem, some countries having large numbers of ‘ghost’ civil servants who either don’t exist or never turn up for work)) this exaggerates GDP, since many state employees are, in effect, recipients of transfer payments, not providing (& sometimes not even expected to provide) a service in return for their pay.You also have to make sure you’re not double counting investment. Government investment is not part of (I), as it’s already included in (G).
Iraqi social security spend is only $10Bn per annum.
“investments” are only the “foreign” investments and mostly its in Oil and Gas industry followed by real estate and cement plants / steel plants / automotive plants… I mean just ONE investment by HANWHA last year was $7bn! La farge over $300M, BP / Lukoil / Shell / Petrochina etc… I won’t even mention.
This even excludes Iraq’s $10Bn a year 2M+ visitor foreign tourism sector… and that when things haven’t even “taken off yet”… its still baby steps.
anyway we are digressing. Earlier on the other page we can see that Iraq has a fairly large defence budget, and so it can fund whatever type of aircraft they may like, as long as the supplying country is willing to sell to Iraq.
It is obvious that the US/Western Europeans are reluctant to sell to Iraq weapons of the same grade as they sell to Iraq’s neighbours. This has meant one thing… that Iraqis went back to Russia who seem more accommodating for Iraq’s defensive needs. Not much to argue about really.
sheytanelkebirFLY NAVY
The countries are already exerting force on Iraq directly by:
-belicose statements against the Iraqi government
-sponsorship of terrorist groups in Iraq and political parties in Iraq (direct intervention in Iraqi internal affairs) – saudi
-bombing and occupying Iraqi land (Turkey)
They would not INVADE Iraq… of course not… but they are exploiting Iraq’s relative military weakness to interfere in Iraqi internal affairs and extract concessions from Iraq. Re read all that I’ve written on this topic.
Iraq made the FMS/DSCA requests for the first batch in 2010 and the second batch in December 2011.
The batches are supposed to be “annual”.
The “third” batch was supposed to be announced in November 2012. It never materialised…. Coincidentally Iraq signed the Russian deal the month before in October 2012.
The “fourth” batch is supposed to be announced in November 2013…. lets wait and see 😉
sheytanelkebiri dont think there is a chance of Iraq buying ANY typhoons at all.
Iraq will have F16IQ and MiG35 for the interim.
When they go for a “heavy” plane, my bet is on SU35…
sheytanelkebirOman’s GDP per capita is $24k per head. Iraq’s is about $9-$11k approx. 10 years ago Iraq’s GDP per head was about $900 (it has gone up by 8x to 10x depending on which figure you’d “accept”)! Iraqi oil production and industrial / real estate development are still in the VERY EARLY stages of development. the main “boom” is expected between 2016-2020.. by which time oil production will reach 6M barrels per day and real estate developments as well as industrial developments will begin showing up more in the economic figures… e.g. tax intake from 2011 to 2012 TRIPLED… without raising taxes or making any “crackdown” on non-payment.
Calculating GDP using the “expenditure method”.
GDP = private consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports − imports)
$100Bn + $30Bn + 120Bn + (100-60) = $290Bn approx.
Even if you “insist” on using the low-ball figures of $240Bn for Iraq… that would still be $8k per capita, and there are plenty of countries with expensive aircraft with lower GDP per capita than that.
Ultimately the question is. Iraq needs to build up a defensive military for the day when its oil exports have a major impact on world energy supplies (i.e. after 2020). So the “cost benefit” calculation of the investment in the military infrastructure will be on the basis of protecting those very much greater assets of the near future. and not what they have today.
sheytanelkebirIraq’s GDP is massively under reported. Just the “state budget” is $120Bn for the year… even with a very low monetary velocity and NO black market that would translate to at least a GDP of $300Bn (monetary velocity of 2.5x state expenditure, which is EXTREMELY LOW, and presumption of NO grey/black market which is also not true).
The various international “groups” had initially reported Iraq’s GDP as $150Bn!!! then they “revised” it to $230-$240Bn! LOL (they did not include ANY domestic consumption in their calculations!). Just Iraq’s imports of consumer goods exceeds $60bn which would tally with a consumer spend of over $100Bn… not to mention a real estate sector that is consuming 30Mn tonnes of cement a year…
Real GDP for the year is more than $300Bn (actually much more), but exactly how much it is is really unkown.
sheytanelkebirAlthough as the sensors get better the room for error decreases (assuming the human in loop is motivated to avoid casualties that is).
why would you be motivated if you’re not a signatory to the ICC? its a “licence to kill” issued by you to yourself 😉
sheytanelkebirJust because Iraq purchased New F-16’s doesn’t mean it couldn’t purchase additional secondhand F-16’s to increase its current fleet. Which, would use much of the same infrastructure, support, training, parts, etc. etc. etc. Plus, they would prefer New Aircraft instead of secondhand. They can just purchase additional New F-16’s. Just depends the amount of resources they’re willing to spend.
They already decided to cap orders at 36 F16s. and since they’re not too chuffed with the “new” planes they’re getting I’d hardly think they’ll entertain the possibility of buying some hand me downs…
As for the threats you listed I personally don’t take any of them seriously. Especially, from countries like Saudi Arabia, Turkey or Kuwait.
Well since the threats are not serious for you personally, that’s wonderful. However in this thread the discussion is about threats to the Republic of Iraq, and the above countries are a “serious threat” to us.
Perhaps the only “serious” threat in your opinion are the countries who are a “threat” to the US / Israel? Try for one minute to think through the perspective of an Iraqi 😉 not an american/israeli.
sheytanelkebirSecondhand F-16’s would be an excellent choice. Especially, considering Iran in Iraq’s only real threat…..
1- they’ve already bought BRAND NEW F16s.
2 – Iraq’s real threats include:
-Syria / terrorists from there
-Saudi Arabia who considers most Iraqis to be heretics ripe for decapitation
-Kuwait who are pushing Iraq around with border demarcation, maritime disputes and shared oil fields.
-Qatar who are supporting terrorists in Iraq and using their propaganda arm against Iraq.
-Iran who are clawing into Iraqi oil fields at fakka and supplying and sheltering terrorist groups.
-Turkey who are fighting a “water war” against iraq as well as bombing Iraq rather regularly… and still have their troops occupying parts of Iraq.
-Israel who is still hostile to Iraq and would attack any future Iraqi nuclear reactors (which are being planned now that Iraq is out of Chapter VII)
and lest we forget… 10 years ago Iraq was illegally invaded, occupied and comprehensively flattened… before that It was starved and bombed for 12 years from the air and before that its infrastructure (power stations, water treatment plants etc.. etc…) was completely destroyed and not allowed to be rebuilt (sanctions) because Iraq invaded kuwait… (does punishment fit the crime?)… so perhaps you may understand that Iraq’s current generation (50% of population born after 1990) are rather weary of being butchered en masse with impunity again.
sheytanelkebirwe’re not even allowed a modern WVR AAM! LOL.
sheytanelkebir……while having 10 times the population, yes, i would contemplate EF, and Su-35 too.
per capita, I was talking.
If we talk in nominal terms, Iraq’s total GDP will surpass the UAE’s next year to become the second biggest in the “arab world” (with the caveat of population size of course).
sheytanelkebirIraq might have oil but it’s hardly a country rich enough to have a Typhoon based airforce.
Either they get Chinese fighters (like the J10), second hand F16s with AMRAAM integrated, or Gripen E with Meteor.
Typhoon would be too expensive.
Isn’t Oman getting Typhoons? their GDP per capita isn’t much higher than Iraq’s… and certainly within 5 years Iraq’s will match or surpass Oman’s.
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