sheytanelkebirI am guessing the UK and France have a synergism with the US when it comes to arms sales. At least the US lets the Iraqis pick up some APCs artillery and tanks from Excess Defence Articles at a very nice knock-down price… which has allowed the Iraqis to at least build up the ground forces command for little money… Whereas the Europeans seem intent on just handing Iraq on a platter to Rosoboronexport and CAC. With Iraqi potential arms imports of $40-$50Bn over the next 7-8 years, that seems a bit odd!
Iraqi commanders and the MOD have been stating that they intend to “match and exceed” Iraq’s neighbours in military capability. Since by 2020 at least 2 of Iraq’s neighbours will be operating 5th Generation types… I’d expect the Iraqis would be looking at such type over the next 7-8 years too (purely for “capability matching”)… not to mention the need to provide air defence protection against the mass rockets/missiles of Iran… for which the US has nicely provided Iraq with some HAWK missiles! I think the Russians or Chinese may be able to provide a better offer than that…
We will see in Iraqi defence purchases a repeat of what happened with the Oil Majors. Initial arrogance by the US companies in their attitude towards Iraqis… followed by losing contract after contract to Russian and Chinese majors… Same happened with the “reconstruction work” contracts… when US companies would bid 3x 4x the price of South Korean contractors due to the need to pay for their $10k/day mercenaries on Iraq’s nickel! That gravy train didn’t go too far either once the US withdrew!
sheytanelkebirhere’s the thing, I thought US policies usually with held the release of a certain weapon unless others in the area had them.
since Turkey, Israel, and a few others already have AMRAAM, why can’t Iraq too.
Because the US wants to maintain the balance of power in favour of its “long standing” allies vs a former enemy…
sheytanelkebirIn the short term the Iraqis have indeed looked at the JF17 in Pakistan and the CAC representative visited the Iraqi Air Force commander many times.
There is no news about interest in J10s at all. I don’t know if these are cleared for Iraq. But since China is THE single biggest investor in Iraqi oil fields and also the biggest customer of Iraqi crude oil.. I think they may be interested in allowing Iraq to have a “self defence” capability, if only to protect on of China’s main energy supplier…
There was a brief talk between Iraq and UK where the “Typhoon” was brought up. From what I have heard (yes you can call it hearsay) the British offered some Tranche 1 Typhoons to Iraq at a price double that of the F16s… Iraqis declined.
The French offered the Iraqis some 30 year old Mirage F1 airframes with some upgrades for the same price as a brand new F16-IQ… Iraqis also declined this offer.
There has been talk and testing of MiG35 in Russia by Iraqis. At the moment this seems to be the single most likely type to enter service with the Iraqi airforce in the next year or two alongside the F16IQ.
Note that Iraqi defence spending runs at about 7% to 8% of GDP. in 2013 it was $16Bn… in 2014 it will be $23Bn… what will it be in 2015…? maybe $28Bn … by 2020 maybe in the $40Bn range… note that the Iraqis are not running a costly navy, so all that money is going for army and airforce, with the greatest focus on air force (army is being equipped mostly with EDA hand me downs from the US, which they deem sufficient for now).
There is potential there (budgetary) for quite a few “high end” types and AEW to be inducted, and probably at a pace that may surprise some people. If there is one painful lesson Iraq learned from its wars over the past 23 years its “protect your airspace at all costs”… they have the money for it. If there’s a country willing to sell, they’ll buy.
sheytanelkebir—————–
sheytanelkebirthere are no pilots who are current on MiG29s in Iraq. Iraq had already put the remaining MiG29s it had into storage by 1995 and focused on keeping its few MiG23, MiG25 and Mirage-F1s as its front line combat type until 2003.
And you are indeed correct in stating that Iraq has had a dual supply policy in weapons since 1937… something that remained in force despite regime changes and several invasions…
Of course the F16 Block 52+ airframes are all nice and dandy… the fact that Iraqis are not allowed to hang off them any weapons without US approval is not so nice… it would be an “OK” weapon for simple ground attack and recon (against some smaller internal threats)… but I doubt it will be used as an interceptor at all once a proper fighter is inducted in the future.
sheytanelkebirAIM-7M is a dual-purpose missile, useful in allowing Israeli attack a/c to use Iraq air space on it’s way to Iran,
and also useful to shoot down subsonic cruise missiles going from Iran to Israel.
No! Never! Really?! :dev2:
sheytanelkebirHow badly the U.S. got burned when it stuck its nose into Afghanistan when the Soviets were there has not been forgotten, despite the political bs one hears from supposed talking-head experts.
Putting advanced tech. in an area where it could easily be acquired by serious enemies, is NOT a matter that is even close to be taken lightly, no matter what financial concerns are.
Thousands of dead U.S. citizens and allies due to the result of the moronic Afghan deal is still a sore matter here if one over here makes serious inquiries.
erm. perhaps the above is more appropriate in a thread discussing the FSA! :dev2:
sheytanelkebirIf the whole F-16 saga for Iraq was such a waste of time, why then did they enter into it in the first place? There were/are other sources of fighters and advanced weapons other than the US and Russia, albeit those of European origin. I’m sure the Iraqi airforce new the weapons package that was being made available to them when they decided to acquire the Vipers, so obviously they perceived some value in the acquisition? I’m sure real politic may have played a role in applying some pressure on the Iraqis to buy US hardware, but not at the cost of their security.
The F16 acquisitions happened when the americans were still in Iraq… there was originally a plan to have batches of 18 aircraft ordered every year for 5 years… first annual contract was done when the US was still in Iraq and the second one followed the year after…. and then the thaw in relations with Russia happened, multi-billion contracts with Russia signed and the third (and now 4th) orders never surfaced on DSCA…
So yes, when the Iraqis were still under the “yoke” they were buying obediently and this continued for a while after the withdrawal (second order), but when the relations with Russia opened up… the Iraqis didn’t exercise the further orders for F16s (but are not in a position to cancel the existing ones since they’ve already paid up front for them).
Before approaching Russia, the Iraqis also approached the UK and France for fighter supplies and SAMs but were rebuffed by them. They did not exercise the options for further EC635s from eurocopter or further IA-407s from the US…
Still Iraqis did end up buying HAWK XXI and AVENGER from the US recently for a rather hefty price for an essentially non-mobile system with antique missiles, still at least it has multiple channels so I guess it could shoot down some iranian drones at the most…
sheytanelkebirI think it’s a little self-contradicting to claim a “US-Iraq strategic framework agreement” and at the same time argue that F-16iqs would be insufficient for deterrence. Maybe that agreement is far more deterring factor than any F-16. I mean, look at the map. Who in that area would dare to go to war with Iraq without US approving? Only Iran would, but they would then give the US a much sought-after excuse to intervene.
Its not. Nobody thinks that any of Iraq’s neighbours will invade Iraq. But they can bully Iraq into making bad decisions on economic cooperation, border demarcation, debt repayments, joint oil wells, water rights as well as openly sponsoring terrorist groups and using their state owned media to spread anti-iraq propaganda… an Iraq with a military capable of “deterring” their militaries would not be dealt with in such a bellicose manner by its neighbours… and that is the key reason for needing better armaments 😉
sheytanelkebirWhat if things go even more south with Iraq? Could there be any chance of these F-16’s winding up in Iran? (Wouldn’t that be ironic…) I wonder if the U.S. has considered that scenario.
anything can happen… but then again the US is already supplying the Iraqis with APG-68v9 / JHMCS / DB110 / SNIPER pod and a lot of other stuff… they are probably quite “ok” with the security from the Iraqi side. And one must remember, the Iraqis DO NOT EVER want to get into a war with the superpower… understand the Iraqi “thinking” on the matter the country was completely and utterly destroyed from tip to toe over a period of over 25 years by the US… Iraqis are not even entertaining the possibility of ever going THERE again! (not even the proper crazies like muqtada sadr or the islamic party).
quote from seytanelkebir: [But their armament is limited to…]
I interpet this as a restriction as opposed to “…supplied with.” Althought this could be seytanelkebir’s interpretation.
So what is the official story?
\Dan
Official story is that Iraq made an FMS request to buy 25 year old AAMs with their brand new F16s to be delivered in 2014-2017 whilst all their neighbours are arming up with AiM-120C7… if they were “bargain hunting” they could have just bought some stuff out of AMARC…
Of course there is that chance, remember the Mirage F-1s, the MiG-29s and the Su-24s that were flown to Iran in 1991? 😉 But the choice of newbuild F-16 airframes for Iraq starts to make sense if one notices that the current orders for F-16s seem to be drying up recently and that without orders it becomes hard to keep the Fort Worth line open into the near future… Without F-16s the US may be relegated to offer F-18s or (yikes!) F-35s to some other “less than stable/controlable international partners”. Fedaykin, you are a very reasonable guy, you very well know that offering yhe latest F-16 model with older technology weapons is a clear way of severely defanging the system. Period! Having said that this strategy is absolutely reasonable and defendable FROM A US POINT OF VIEW, while being at the same tima TOTALY UNDEFENDABLE from an exclusively Iraqui point of view.
Another interesting way to look at it is the system/weapons commonality angle. If a new war spurts out overnight in the middle east region iin the next gfew years this 36 strong f-16 fleet can be quickliy reinforced by USAF sourced F-16s to be flown by previously trained Iraqi air force pilots… Also hundreds or thousands of USAF stock veteran AIM-9/AIM-7 missiles can be delivered overnight to Iraq to give their airforce a major warfighting boost vis a vis their neighbours… This last reaoning has always been the mindset of South American airforces with US sourced aircraft.
Comments?
Regards,
Hammer
Iraq and the US have a “strategic framework agreement”… its just shy of a “defence treaty”, there are hundreds of US trainers/advisors in Iraq now, and I personally saw a column of US armour from Kuwait going ostensibly for some joint training with Iraqis a year and a half ago in the desert near Nassiriya (where I was working). So the actual military relationship between the two sides is good… and trust me, no one in Iraq wants to get into a war with the US… I don’t know if I can really emphasise this point more strongly!
At the same time the Iraqis are rather weary of having their army on the ground exposed to attack by enemy aircraft (perhaps readers would understand this point)… sadly, in a conventional confrontation the F16s would NOT be able to secure the airspace above the Iraqi Army ground units, nor protect Iraqi cities and strategic assets (oil assets / ports / power stations) from enemy air attacks. That is the problem in a nutshell.
The entire issue with the F16 fiasco is that the deals were signed before the thaw in relations between Russia and Iraq, now that Iraq and Russian relations are stronger than at any time in the last 25 years, the Iraqis have naturally decided to can any further orders for F16s (the original plan was to acquire 96 of them in yearly batches of 18… but Iraqis only took the first 2 year batches and have NOT submitted further FMS requests. That tells us all we need to know about the “potential” for the US to supply Iraq with AMRAAMs… i.e. zilch at the moment). However, once Iraq acquires some R77s with russian aircraft… I can see the US “softening its stance” since the “cat would be out of the bag” and maybe offer them AMRAAMs… in a mirror of the situation regarding the Ah-64 apaches that the Iraqis have been trying to get since 2009 (US categorically refusing) – Iraqis went to Russia last year and bought a batch of Mi28NE helos… and lo and behold… US agrees to sell the Iraqis 24 Ah-64 apaches this year.
sheytanelkebirYes but do they come with the same restrictions and armament as what sheytanelkebir has stated that the Iraqi planes will come with?
exactly. I don’t know why there is some wilful “blindness” to this small “detail”…
There is absolutely no problem with the airframes. They are completely FINE, nobody has argued about the AIRFRAMES!
The fact that Iraqis are being given new airframes with obsolete missiles is the “minor issue”…
Its like being sold Abrams tanks and restricted from buying modern APFSDS rounds for it 😀 it makes a nice infantry support tank… but not much different to a T55 with some add on armour!
sheytanelkebirI understand what you are trying to convey and I am sorry but it is honestly rather paranoid. Is Iraq planning to go to war with Jordan or Kuwait?
How am I being paranoid? If what I wrote is “paranoia” then ALL defence spending by ALL countries is simple paranoia. If the aircraft that Iraq buy are not able to deter even Iraq’s WEAKEST neighbours, then why buy them at all? They are of no use in deterring our weakest neighbours, and thus will not allow Iraq to balance its “political power” vs its other neighbours with which Iraq does have many political, geographical and “terroristic” “disputes”… without an effective military deterrent, the Iraqis will not be in a position to “negotiate” with its neighbours on an equal footing to ensure that their sovereignty is not trampled on. Why do I even have to state this… the above is true for ALL countries in the world! Let alone one surrounded by ACTUAL enemies who ARE using Iraq’s weakness to infringe on its sovereignty TODAY.
The AIM-9M and AIM-7M are good missiles presumably being sold at a bargain basement price. The AIM-9M is still the main short range missile of the F-22 and the AIM-7F offers a few advantages in certain respects.
They are not. Everyone in the area is replacing them with AiM120C7 + AiM9-X. You know that, I know that… why are we even discussing this? Iraq is not next to New Zealand… its next to Turkey and Saudi and Iran and Kuwait and Jordan and Israel… the deterrent it needs is different to what Bolivia needs…
I am in no doubt Iraq will get AMRAAM in the future,
I actually doubt that completely. Look at Egypt as a nice example.
the reconnisance and ground attack capabilities of the F-16 are more important at the moment and the package being sold to Iraq by the US is perfectly credible.
only against some terrorist groups. It is of no deterrence against ANY neighbour… because quite simply they would be able to shoot down all Iraqi aircraft WITH EASE using their far more capable AAMs. But you already know that, so I am not sure why you’re arguing… if the aim is to keep Iraq “weak” against its neighbours, that’s fine… its your opinion, but there really is no need to sugar coat with teflon-tony style “spin”.
sheytanelkebirThis fleet will be inducted to the Iraqi Airforce between 2014-2017. IOC around 2015?
So in that period, lets say 2020, Comparison of the Iraqi fleet vs its neighbours is truly, massively lopsided! Kuwait and Jordan would be able to have air supremacy over Iraq!
You do realise that Jordan and Kuwait both operate AiM-120C7… so what if Iraq’s F16 airframes are more modern? they go in with unencrypted IFF and Sparrows? As I told you, these aircraft are already a laughing stock… when Jordan or Kuwait can impose air supremacy over you… its akin to the Republic of Ireland imposing air supremacy over the RAF!
And yes, comparison HAS TO BE to potential adversaries… Isn’t that the entire point of buying these things for billions? to help you secure your country’s airspace… regardless of how “nice” the F16 airframes that Iraq receives are, their weapons are completely obsolescent! its like buying a Lamborghini but having it fitted with a twinair engine from a Panda. Yes, its still a “lamborghini” but in the “pointy end” where it matters… it doesn’t perform the same…
I hope the idea I’m trying to convey is clear.
sheytanelkebirThe statement regarding the Iraqis wish to buy the Superhornet were made by both the Iraqi minister of defence and the commander of the Iraqi Air Force. The idea was killed already before the DSCA request stage… thus you wouldn’t see any official paperwork (for it never existed!). Iraqis were told categorically that these would be denied.
In fact the final specifications for the F16-IQ were actually drawn up by the Americans for the FMS request since they told the Iraqis what would be accepted and what would be rejected… thus the inclusion of missiles that have been out of production for 25 years! in a neighbourhood brimming with AEW tottting AMRAAM armed neighbours…
Even Iraqi requests for JDAM/SDB were turned down… instead they were “allowed” some LGBs and mavericks!
The IFF transponder they were not allowed to set themselves… and it comes unencrypted (and unchangeable).
among many other things…
this is not “top secret” stuff. Its all been discussed to death in the Iraqi MODs official TV programmes / News magazine.
Ultimately the Iraqi purchase of the F16 is an expensive mistake. They WILL end up having to buy a more capable platform from another country and these will be relegated to second line duties or simple ground attack / recon.
Once again, the Iraqi Air Force needs to be an effective deterrent to all of its neighbours, all of which are sponsoring terrorists in Iraq and encroaching Iraq’s sovereignty in different ways (bombing Iraq by Turkey, sponsorship of terror groups by saudi and iran, attempts at encroaching on Iraqi oil fields in fakka by Iran among many others…). Iraq would need an effective “deterrent” in order to make these countries think twice before messing about with Iraq. This is the Middle East real-politik, and the weapons purchases are part of this “brinkmanship” exercise. Iraqi F16s are already the butt of jokes even amongst “lowly” Jordanians… let alone Typhoon/F15 armed Saudis and future F35 operators Turkey and Israel… Yes, I know you may think this is a “ludicrous” way of thinking… but this IS the middle east!
sheytanelkebirThe F-16IQ Block 52 is better than the junk they have now, and better than what they had before the war (1990).
well they have NOTHING now. So even a MiG15 is better!
1990 was 23 years ago!
Comparison should be made with Iraq’s neighbours ORBAT in 2020 when it comes to assess Iraq’s force build up needs… and by that metric the F16-IQ is, dare I say, JUNK.
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