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sheytanelkebir

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  • in reply to: Which attack helicopter for Iraq? #2322514
    sheytanelkebir
    Participant

    I believe Dassault tried selling these to Iraq but wanted about $1Bn for 18 planes so the Iraqis said no.

    Anyway, the Iraqi parliament passed a resolution (to prevent corruption) which states that weapons purchased have to be “brand new”… which discounts these types out of hand. Now the only “second hand” weapons the Iraqis can get are of the “Excess Defence Articles” type… or for example in the case of the L159 deal they were “free” (the first 4 airframes)… ditto for the 6 gazelles they received (they were “free” with the order for 24+26 options EC-635s).

    So If france offered to Iraq some Rafales, they could “donate” some F1s for interim use until Rafales can be delivered… it would be the only “legal” way for Iraq to obtain them.

    in reply to: What If Scenario: Iraq AF 1991 was up to Israeli standards #2322578
    sheytanelkebir
    Participant

    Gulf War 1991 did not involve NATO. USA could’ve done it on her own. And North Vietnam faced the entire might of the US as well.

    not true for most of the vietnam war… against Iraq there was a total and unrestricted war from day 1 with the complete destruction of Iraq’s entire civilian life infrastructure undertaken from day 1… (focus on electricity stations and bridges). Much of north vietnam was off limits for most of the war, and Vietnam was economically and militarily aided throughout the conflict. Once the americans practiced some “unrestricted warfare” against North Vietnam, the vietnamese capitulated pretty quickly too…

    Weren’t there always issues with say the Shi’ite Marsh Arabs as well?

    not in 1990…

    Also in Libya and Syria it did not take long for tribalism/sectarianism to come to the fore.

    nor in any other place on earth undergoing upheavals… this is not an “arab” trait at all… can easily happen in european societies (lest we forget the behaviour of citizens during and after WW2)

    Also Hussein always gave preferential treatment to his own clan.

    This isn’t necessarily a problem. The Soviets certainly didn’t have these sorts of issues in WWII. The educational requirement for tank crews was experience with a tractor!

    it was an issue… they nearly lost moscow and suffered disproportionate losses vs germany and her allies.

    Troops need to be trained to operate effectively. It’s not about poor overall education. Troops can be educated.

    desertion rates from the “old” Iraqi army had to be seen to be believed… (and that is for “peacetime” desertions).

    As for conscripts, most countries had it at one stage or another and in many instances they fought well whilst in others they performed poorly.

    It’s all about training and proper organisational culture.

    you can have training and organisational regime in place, but if the population doesn’t “believe” in your government/war/army it won’t get anywhere…

    Did they distribute this knowledge to NCOs and the general soldiers?

    nope. because the soldiers were not interested and the NCOs struggled to just make sure the soldiers were not AWOL…

    This is quite common in a lot of societies.

    There were Israeli reports tahat the Jordanian Army got progressively worse as the decades moved on. Apparently the Arab Legion of 1947 was a far superior fighting force than the Jordanian Army of the 1960s (who were still the best Arab troops engaged against Israel).

    Can’t remember where I read it though – it was an online military journal.

    I’d take much of what Israel says about arabs with a pinch of salt. they are motivated to dehumanise their enemy and propagation of the “savage arabs” (without looking at actual circumstances and reasons for events) is simply the natural modus operandi since 1948.

    but ultimately the entire discussion is moot. It is a false premise to compare a “developed” country (Israel) with a “developing” country (Iraq). The main difference is that whist Iraq has an “educated elite” there is a massive disconnect between them and the “average” person in the street… whereas in Israel the overall education/social development levels are much higher, so whilst there may not be any qualitative difference between the “officers” the real difference is between the quality of the soldiers and their ability to fight modern wars. Iraq in 1990 had a pretty good military by “developing world” standards… but it was still nothing when going up against the concentration of the US+Allies in a very intensive air combat.

    in reply to: What If Scenario: Iraq AF 1991 was up to Israeli standards #2322932
    sheytanelkebir
    Participant

    mack8, there’s one very insightful comment in note 42 on page 18 by USMC Major General Mike Myatt: “Thank God the North Vietnamese weren’t here.”

    the vietnamese were fighting to protect their homeland AND they had support… whilst Iraq was completely isolated internationally AND was facing the entire modern armed force of NATO. Also iraqis were simply not prepared to lose millions of dead for Kuwait… not even saddam.

    I think it’s a great insight into the biggest deficiencies Arab forces tend to have which are cultural:

    1. Most Arab countries are artificial constructs and thus don’t enhance loyalty.

    2. Most Arabs first loyalty is to tribe/clan, religion and only then country.

    these points were not true of Iraq in 1990 (note the kurds were already “autonomous” since 1970 and most did not have to server in the iraqi army, so they didn’t count)… (of course Iraqi society was fractured later on and degenerated into a tribal/sectarian society as a result of the upheavals of the invasion resulting in civil war… but that can happen in the most developed of societies too).

    3. A study I read showed a highly hierarchical culture. In Arab militaries there is a marked difference between officers and non-officers.

    true

    Part of this is officers like to retain knowledge on weapon systems etc without imparting anything but the most basic knowledge to their subordinates. This gives them power.

    This is mostly an issue with the education level of many ordinary soldiers as well as the problem of “conscription” (forcing young men into things they don’t want to get into).

    4. A lack of understanding of the concept of “systems” as opposed to looking at weapons as stand alone items.

    The Iraqi officer corps in 1990 understood systems and doctrines quite well and they had comprehensive doctrine school and annual lessons learned conferences from battalion commanders up to a national conferences where divisional commanders / chiefs of staff compiled and reviewed lessons learned and incorporated into the military doctrine which was taught to officer recruits as well as distributed to the officer corps.

    5. Officers not often selected on merit but rather family/clan/tribe lines.

    in Iraq the problem is that officers were selected from the lowest % of high school graduates… the brighter young men all went into medicine and other academic subjects and city folks mostly shunned the military, which left it wide open to villagers and tribesmen as a “social stepping tool”.

    Another article I read about the Arab Legion (later Jordanian Army) is that as it the number of British Officers declined, the fighting efficacy of the force also declined.

    examples?

    6. Arab militaries are also often kept at low readiness to prevent coup attempts. They are basically often not trusted by the regimes in power. Hence development of Republican Guard (or Saudi National Guard) which are kind of like the SS – troops designed to keep regime in power.

    the bane of unelected dictators (and even in elected “new” democracies where the rule of law is not yet solid, like the new Iraq…).

    in reply to: What If Scenario: Iraq AF 1991 was up to Israeli standards #2322935
    sheytanelkebir
    Participant

    the air force focused on what it was ordered to do… quite simply.

    under the circumstances they could have flown some “suicidal raids” against Saudi arabia, but it would have been a turkey shoot for the F15 / F14s guided by AWACS and the Iraqi planes operating without GCI… all it would have resulted in would be books today about “the massacre of 400 Iraqi fighter jets in the 1991 war”… “the greatest massacre of jet fighters in history” etc…

    The best they could have hoped for would be to divert allied air attacks from the Iraqi army, enabling the army to mount some assaults into saudi territory (especially the all important oil fields and ports).. those would have also ultimately failed of course, but perhaps would have allowed an armistice agreement between Iraq and the allies which was not so onerous on Iraq. But the Iraqi Ground Forces Command was simply incapable of carrying out a deep penetration into Saudi arabia, their logistics lines (even if the entire Iraqi air force was sacrificed to protect it) would have been cut before they even reached jubail / dammam… at which point mass destruction of saudi wells (as well as the kuwaiti) would have been the only option open to the Iraqi forces cut off and encircled.

    in reply to: Which attack helicopter for Iraq? #2322942
    sheytanelkebir
    Participant

    Weren’t the first F-16s supposed to arrive in Iraq next month?:confused: Christ it takes LM 4 years to build a damn F-16?! They’re dragging their feet big time are they.

    Btw, the pic you posted of the M1 climbing on a MiG-25, it’s a PS.

    oh I didn’t realise its a PS … 😮

    yes the first 2 F16s will arrive in Iraq in March 2014. The full 36 planes will arrive by 2018… in the meantime wars are raging all around Iraq and Iraq’s oil production increase is beginning to step on many toes (OPEC quotas, oil price wars etc…). Hence they need aircraft urgently, and most probably need “contractors” to operate them initially… perhaps its easier to find russian contractors to take on these operational tasks in the interim than US/european contractors. Also for air defence the Iraqi air defence command was only established in december 2011 (when the US withdrew)… and so far all they have are some S60 / ZU23-2 and 8 AVENGER launchers to defend all of Iraq’s airspace 😀

    with regards to the AiM9M / AiM7s… by 2018 when the last F16s are delivered all of Iraq’s neighbourhood (Israel, Turkey, Jordan, Saudi, Kuwait, Qatar etc…) will have Aim120-C5 / C7 armed fighters and AiM9-X-II AAMs… Iranians will most probably have some locally made chinese AAMs (PL12?) on their refurbished fighters… saudis probably also some METEORs and other advanced AAMs for their fighter fleets (lets discount the SA advantage of operating AEW&C aircraft) and its quite clear that Iraq as a country that by that time will be producing 6-7M barrels of oil a day, and all the neighbours above being both economic competitors (oil) as well as political/religious/regional rivals would be in a position to politically and economically blackmail Iraq into doing their bidding as Iraq will be in no position to even defend its border (not that any of them would attempt an outright invasion, but certainly military/political blackmail and shunning as is happening now)…

    in reply to: Which attack helicopter for Iraq? #2323176
    sheytanelkebir
    Participant

    Iraqis using the russian deal to drive bargains with the americans is of course one aspect… (they are doing the same with threats of buying a european plane / METEOR if the americans dont deliver AMRAAMs in future).

    I don’t know how they intend to IOC the MiG29M quickly… but basically the planes will be flown and maintained by “contractors” for a year or two at least…

    understand that they have huge number of infrastructure projects going on now in iraq… ramping up oil production massively with the largest increase in incremental oil production in the world as well as associated ports, pipelines etc under construction… and plenty of conflicts and enemies outside and within… to get an idea why they are so openly buying weapons. The Iraqi government has foreign exchange reserves of $130Bn so there’s no shortage of money to pay for “contractors” and early delivery premiums.

    in reply to: Which attack helicopter for Iraq? #2323228
    sheytanelkebir
    Participant

    With regards to the F16IQ… the Iraqi planes will, in the medium-long term end up as strike fighters, and their equipment for that role is pretty good… they get the full APG68v9 with ISAR, SNIPER pods for every aircraft, a mix of 12 singe + 6 twin seaters for each batch (2 batches only) and CFTs for extra range (also some recon pods, and lots of LGBs and older PGMs)… very much an attack aircraft oriented setup. the abysmal AAMs mean that they can hardly defend Iraqi airspace at all (and that is not even considering the lack of AEW&C in the Iraqi Air Force).

    Anyhow, the future iraqi air force is a purely defensive setup, and whatever planes they buy will be only in small batches… they will spread orders around as many “major powers” as possible and basically do their best to avoid ending up like saddam’s Iraq by pi*sing off too many powerful people…

    in reply to: Which attack helicopter for Iraq? #2323237
    sheytanelkebir
    Participant

    The issue with buying both MiG29M and SU30 is delivery times from what I understand. Iraq does not have a single air defence fighter at the moment, and the first F16s won’t be in Iraq for another year… and SU30s can’t be built very quickly… whereas I understand there’s a batch of undelivered MiG29M/M2 for Syria that the Iraqis can take up…

    the choice of SU30 variant is strange… of course Iraqis stipulate no israeli parts, so something like the MKI is not an option. Once again, most probably component availability / delivery schedule played a major role… Iraqis are looking for initial operational capability as they are starting from 0… once they have a few squadrons in service they can begin thinking of “luxuries” like upgrading capabilities and long lead times…

    With regards to why they are also talking with a “european” side for supplying fighters (either rafale or eurofighter), I really don’t know… though in an interview with the air force commander he did mention interest in the METEOR and ASTER missiles. (means nothing, can simply be a ruse to get the americans to deliver AMRAAMs)

    with regards to the old planes… you mean things like this… if you spend years and billions on patrols and can’t shoot it down get revenge some other ways… 😉
    http://i99.photobucket.com/albums/l314/USNavy2534/fa75-1.jpg

    in reply to: Which attack helicopter for Iraq? #2323897
    sheytanelkebir
    Participant

    the iraqi AF and army aviation has in place maintenance and support contracts with all its new suppliers. But they are at the same time building up their new capabilities very quickly through training of hundreds of engineers, technicians and field staff in Iraq and abroad. Some of these are veterans from the 1980s-90s, and others are new graduates.

    They inducted the C130J-30 recently… and Iraqi Airways has in service / on order over 70 brand new aircraft (airbus 320/330, Boieng 738, 777, 787, CRJ900) for which huge new maintenance facilities are being built / training conducted (traditionally Iraqi Airways maintenance had supported the Iraqi air force for maintenance and overhaul).

    actual key weakness right now is lack of qualified (young!) fighter pilots!

    in reply to: Which attack helicopter for Iraq? #2324279
    sheytanelkebir
    Participant

    they may not get ANY of those items at all… or all of them and even more… when (if) the budget is approved by parliament it will be clear. but the armed forces made their feelings clear to the parliament about their needs.

    in reply to: Which attack helicopter for Iraq? #2324339
    sheytanelkebir
    Participant

    Have you seen recent prices for ROC? AH-64E $82mil a pop, UH-60M $56mil. That is hardly in the league of countries like Iraq.

    iraqi army aviation people spent many years working alongside US Army and US Marines Apaches and AH-1Z… I am guessing they learnt about some of the difficulties in operating these helos in Iraqi conditions (even with ideal supplies of unlimited cash/parts and Boeing contractors on site!)… still they did like the AH-1Z after all… (and it is cheap and cheerful :D)

    in reply to: Which attack helicopter for Iraq? #2324346
    sheytanelkebir
    Participant

    Once the Iraqis get all their armed helos in operation:

    ARH407
    EC635s
    Mi28NE
    AH-1Z

    they’ll be operating Ingwe, Hellfire, ATAKA-V anti tank missiles… but I wonder is it possible to also fit the the MI28NE or Mi171s with the VIKHR system?

    in reply to: Which attack helicopter for Iraq? #2324360
    sheytanelkebir
    Participant

    Interesting sheytanelkebir, considering the budget is not set then everything listed has to be taken with a pinch of salt.

    The Mi-28N is an interesting one really, an all weather day and night capable attack helicopter is quite a jump. Considering the Mi-28N is still in development vs the mature AH-64D presumably cost is a major deciding point. As I said I take it with a pinch of salt…

    As for the missile complexes I presume S300 and BUK-M2E? Placing those on the northern border would certainly cut down on Turkish incursions if they can get the radar net sorted out.

    The minister of defence stated “we can get two Mi28NEs for the price of one Apache” – so yes cost was a deciding factor…

    since the budget has not even been approved… it may even be possible (but unlikely) that none of these weapons are delivered… though I’d expect a mutiny from the military, all statements by the MOD and Chief of Staff down to some division commanders stated how desperate they are to get these weapons and how vulnerable Iraq is right now.

    in reply to: Which attack helicopter for Iraq? #2324365
    sheytanelkebir
    Participant

    Why Su-30MK2 and not Su-30MKI (perfect nomenclature 😉 ) ?

    And better yet, why interest in both Flanker and Fulcrum?
    That is the one thing that is weird to me about all this.

    I am guessing the “strategic” weapons were for either Antei-2500 or Iskander.

    I don’t know. I am as surprised as you…

    Of course the Iraqis are taking the MiG29M for the obvious reason of quick delivery of the planes undelivered to Syria. really a stopgap measure… but still with good teeth.

    The SU30s they need as their more “medium term” development plan to match up to the saudis F15s and the like…

    I don’t know what they mean by “strategic weapons that russia has not exported before” – very vague language they used.. with the exception of mentioning that each complex costs $210M. 😀 there you go… trying to decipher their language 😀

    in reply to: Which attack helicopter for Iraq? #2324371
    sheytanelkebir
    Participant

    why is China not popular with Iraq? I would imagine they would be indifferent.

    China and Russia have huge investments in Iraqi oil and power infrastructure nowadays… Iraq is keen on diversifying its arms suppliers, and making payments via the CNPC / LUKOIL oil concessions is practical and safe for both sides and eases cashflow issues. Win Win really.

    Big losers seem to be europeans… Eurocopter has a permanent stand at the Iraqi Army Aviation HQ (they are there nearly every week), but so far have sold just some EC-635s and trying to sell some EC-725s (for the upcoming VIP squadron) and some AS-565s for the coastal duties…

Viewing 15 posts - 736 through 750 (of 768 total)