SlowManHow long can NKorean forces remain on max alert?
As long as their food supplies last.
North Korean soldiers are telling Southern TV reporters(You will be amazed what gets broadcast on Southern TV nowadays thanks to widespread cellphones) that they were getting the full amount of rations they were supposed to be getting so their lives were better and hoped that this max alert condition would last forever. Before the alert, they were getting half that.
Key questions: Are the NKors sane? Is that new Leader sane? Is he really nuts or is he just playing with Western effeminacy?
The new leader was schooled in Europe and speaks four languages.
No translator needed.
Would the NKorean armed forces follow nutcase orders that lead to self destruction?
Sure.
SlowManIs it possible that Nk would use China’s radars
No. China is honoring the UN imposed arms transfer ban and has not sent any weapons to North Korea. North Korea smuggles Chinese parts used in its weapons, but the Chinese state does not send arms to North Korea.
Nor does China and North Korea drill together.
as their own untouchable AWACS?
What do you mean? Like Chinese AWACs have cloacking?
It can also be done quietly, and China could forever deny it.
Well, Chinese would have a lot of explanations to do if its AWACs are spotted flying in North Korea by recon or satellite photos.
Is that not technically possible?
Not possible.
SlowManDo you realise how quickly you can fire an artillery piece?
The speed I mentioned are from an actual combat, the Yeonpyung Island shelling.
North Korea : 0.3 ~ 0.5 per minute
South Korea : 2.5 per minute.
There’s also a heap of SCUDs, FROGs etc.
It is a little known fact, but the ROK has more ballistic and cruise missiles than North Korea does; they have at least 5,000 although the exact number is classified.
The first salvo at South Korea is estimated at over 10,000 rounds. One estimate I saw 500,000 rounds an hour for several hours.
Across the DMZ, yes. Little impact to troops since they would be underground bunkers on alert.
10,000 rounds arriving Seoul, nope.
And South Korea and stationed US forces lack the strength to dispose of North Korean airforce, rocket forces and artillery forces in a matter of hours.
But the ROK does, with its 5000+ missiles.
The primary security guarantor in Korean peninsular is the ROK, not the US military whose role is to provide air and naval reinforcement in wartime. This is why the USFK come under the command of Korean Defense Ministry in wartime on December 2015.
We never mentioned popular revolt or transfer of North Korean nukes.
Those are the conditions that triggers an automatic ROK invasion. You keep hearing North Korean state media complaining about the South and the US drilling for invasion, and there is a truth to this complaints; they are drilling for the landing near and the execution of siege of Pyongyang, as well as the suspected nuclear weapons depot.
North Korea didn’t pursue nuclear weapons in the 70s and 80s, when North Korea’s military was stronger than the South’s and it was the North threatening to invade and the South had nearly completed nukes waiting for the first detonation test. North Korea began to pursue nuclear weapons following the collapse of the Soviet Union, as now the tide turned and they needed nukes to guarantee the regime’s survival. The situation is particularly worse for North Korea nowadays, where the power disparity between the North and the South is so large that the Pyongyang itself would come under the ROK’s siege within 3~4 days, and why the ROK is now making threats to North Korea, such as striking Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il’s giant statues in the center of Pyongyang if North Korea made a military move.
SlowManDo you realise how quickly you can fire an artillery piece?
Once every two to three minute. That was the rate of firing at Yeonpyung Island shelling.
The first salvo at South Korea is estimated at over 10,000 rounds.
And most do not reach Seoul.
If the North launched a surprise attack, there would considerable damage caused by all these obsolete systems.
There is a reason why North Korea didn’t strike the mainland DMZ; they were well aware of the counter battery.
And South Korea and stationed US forces lack the strength to dispose of North Korean airforce, rocket forces and artillery forces in a matter of hours.
US may not, but the ROK does.
We never mentioned popular revolt or transfer of North Korean nukes.
So you now know what triggers an automatic ROK invasion of North Korea.
SlowManwhat would Russia’s position be during this?.
Russia backs the ROK takeover of North Korea, because Russia wants to connect railway, gas pipe, and electrical grid with the ROK, but North Korea’s blocking it.
If the South Koreans are mobilised and in wartime positions, then I imagine Seoul would suffer massive damage from arty fire
Wrong, North Korea has only 300 artillery pieces capable of reaching Seoul, and these would be neutralized in the matter of hours.
It’s why South Korea did not declare war
You mean the resumption of war. That incident does not trigger an automatic invasion of North Korea in the current war manual; the popular revolt and the transfer of North Korean nukes outside of North Korea does.
SlowManhow would norks go about an air war with south korea and to some extent, japan?
A kamikaze pilot flying a Mig-19 loaded with chemical/biological bombs, assuming he could break through the ROK’s air defense.
As for Japan, Japan is out of North Korea’s reach except for ballistic missiles.
what could china provide for assistance? tankers? kj-2000?
The PLA would be the primary combatant should they decide to join the war as the North Korean military would be disintegrated within a week, just like the last time.
But each passing day it is less likely that the PLA would enter the war, largely due to the PLA’s increasing confidence that could tolerate the US air bases along the Yalu river where the US stealth jets could reach Beijing in 30 minutes.
The departed ROK president hinted that there was an ongoing negotiation between Seoul and Beijing under what terms China would abandon the Kim Regime and not intervene so that the ROK could finish the war in a short time of two weeks or less. The first Chinese demand is that the ROK not allow US bases above the DMZ in the post-war era, only the ROK troops deployed in former North Korea. Beijing used to demand the removal of US bases below the DMZ but they appear to have dropped this demand.
SlowManso which model will get the chop?
F-35C. The US Navy doesn’t want it and is happy with the Super Hornet.
SlowManhttp://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCABRE92Q0GR20130327?sp=true
Japan’s military chief says F-35 is “best fighter”
Wed Mar 27, 2013 9:57am EDTBy Kiyoshi Takenaka
TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s highest-ranking uniformed officer said on Wednesday that Lockheed Martin’s F-35 fighters were the best choice for the nation’s future operational needs as Tokyo wrestles with tensions with China and increasingly belligerent North Korea.
The vote of confidence in the state-of-the-art U.S. warplane comes amid reports that some nations that have placed orders for the F-35s are reconsidering their plans.
Dutch orders for F-35 warplanes are likely to be cut back, sources close to the discussions told Reuters last week, citing cost overruns and delays in the program, uncertainty over the Netherlands’ defense strategy and budget cuts across Europe.
U.S. officials fear cuts in orders by the Dutch or other buyers could trigger a “death spiral” in the Pentagon’s biggest arms program by driving up the price of remaining orders, leading to more cancellations.
Japan, one of the closest U.S. allies in Asia, has remained steadfast in its plans to buy 42 F-35s, with the first four planes scheduled for delivery by March 2017.
Japan has become an F-35 promoter in order to stop the cost of its own F-35 from further rising via death spiral cancellations.
But the death spiral is inevitable, starting with the shock of Korean F-X decision announcement in June where the F-35 bid is outright illegal and the Silent Eagle is the leading and possibly the only legal bid.
SlowManhttp://www.govconwire.com/2013/03/report-singapore-to-announce-lockheed-f-35-jet-buy/
Report: Singapore To Announce Lockheed F-35 Jet Buy
Posted by Ross Wilkers on Mar 26th, 2013 // No Comment
inShareSingapore will announce within the next 10 days that it plans to buy its first 12 Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) F-35 jets out of 75 planes the country plans to purchase.
Colin Clark writes Singapore could be choosing the short takeoff and vertical landing variant to operate with the U.S. Marine Corps‘ fleet of F-35Bs and the F-35Cs, designed to takeoff and land on U.S. aircraft carriers.
12 F-35Bs? That would be a $3 billion buy.
SlowManDo keep up.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RIM-174_Standard_ERAM
And don’t try to wriggle off the hook by saying “it’s naval”. Raytheon would be very happy to sell a land-based installation (it offers a land-based SM-3), or Taiwan could buy SM-6 capable ships.
Taiwan can’t even buy new build F-16 fighters and subs from the US, so why do you think buying a custom SM-6 launch system would be easy?
Taiwan must build its own SAMs if they want a competent and up-to-date system, just like their cruise missiles.
SlowManYes, F-35 is one system in a system of systems. It will be able to avoid or ambush IADS elements on its way to destroy its ground target.
The battlegrounds where 5 gen fighters are actually needed over the sea.
– America’s AirSea Battle
– The Taiwan Strait Battle during the Invasion of Taiwan
– The Dioyudai Island Battle in the East China Sea
– The Spratly Islands battle.
– The Yellow Sea battle during the collapse of North Korea.
The only exception appears to be the India-China border war.
SlowManIt all comes down to pilot quality.
Flooding the sky with J-6 or J-7 isn’t really a viable tactic.
An F-22 carries only 6 AMRAAMs, good for 3 BVR kills maybe and even an F-22 would not want to get into a WVR combat because the kill ratio drops to 1:1 in that case.
So it it was 100 F-22s vs 500 PLA jets(300 obsolete types and 200 Flanker types), then the Chinese would win because the F-22 force must decide to stay and fight an IR missile dogfight after depleting its AMRAAMs, or flee the scene and let the Chinese gain the control of the air space.
This is how the “Fighter wave attack” that RAND corporation described in 2008 works. While losing 300 fighter jet pilots in a day maybe unacceptable to the USAF, it is perfectly acceptable to the PLA, and may even be considered a small price to pay to defeat the Americans.
And funnily enough, the Taiwanese quality has been eroded to the point where China probably has some sort of parity.
At this point, Taiwan may well give up on its air force and invest heavily in SAMs.
This is exactly what the ROKAF’s doing to counter the Chinese fighter wave attack; they are building a KL-SAM system with two interceptors, one for ballistic missiles and the other one is a dual-seeker ducked rocket SAM with a range of 250 km+. The idea is that they would try to cut down the number of Chinese fighters entering the Yellow Sea as much as possible with KL-SAMs, then let its fighter jet take on the survivors.
If Taiwan could do some similar by developing its own long range SAMs(The US doesn’t have one to sell, so Taiwan must develop its own) to cut down the number of Chinese fighters crossing the Taiwan Straits by half, then the USAF and JASDF(Japanese government recently announced that Taiwan was within the operating areas of the SDF) may be able to stop the Chinese fighter wave attack.
SlowManCountries buy Gen5 because they project the capabilities of potential adversaries 20-30 years in the future.
So do you think the F-35 could survive against the likes of PAK-FA, Su-35, Chinese advanced Flanker variant, etc?
This is why the countries in high threat regions must immediately start looking at alternatives other than the F-35, because the F-35 isn’t good enough even if you could pay $150 million a copy.
SlowMan– There is an article on the Silent Eagle which claims the aft-biased lift provided by the canted fins would allow removal of some weight from the nose, but needless to say the F-15SA does not have the required tail mod.
The Silent Eagle will not have canted vertical tails, this option was dropped to cut cost in the Korean F-X contest where the Silent Eagle is currently leading the race and where the F-35 is in a technical disqualification. The Saudis, who really wanted the Silent Eagle but was denied, will have to have same config as the ROKAF Silent Eagles via an upgrade at a later date, unless the Saudis are willing to order new airframes.
SlowManSupport!!!the territorial disputes are about those already marked on Officail PRC maps, China never claimed soverignty on territories outside that map.
Well, the Diaoyu Islands and the Spratlys were not on that official PRC map in the 50s and 60s, yet Chinese government has no problem claiming them today.
Russia’s War Games Preparing for Conflict with the East
By Simon Saradzhyan | Wed, 26 May 2010 22:20 | 4
Benefit From the Latest Energy Trends and Investment Opportunities before the mainstream media and investing public are aware they even exist. The Free Oilprice.com Energy Intelligence Report gives you this and much more. Click here to find out more.Russia should tackle negative socio-economic and demographic trends in the Far East and Siberia instead of reacting to China’s continuing rise if it wants to head off the chances of conflict in the region.
Next month will see the Russian armed forces stage an operational-strategic exercise dubbed “Vostok-2010” (East-2010), called “the main event of the combat training” in 2010 in a press release by the Russian Defense Ministry.
Thousands of soldiers from the army, including the CBRN Protection Forces, the navy, air force, airborne troops and other elements of the Russian armed forces will participate in the joint exercise of the Far Eastern and Siberian Military districts in mid-June.
However, there is one more potential foe in the east whose growing military might require counteraction strategy on the scale of East-2010: China.
Russian officials have in the past avoided explicitly referring to China as a potential foe, perhaps, in order not to anger the eastern neighbor and buy time to prepare for its further rise.
What’s left unsaid
More recently, however, the Defense Ministry top brass have begun to edge closer toward acknowledging the obvious.
During a press conference presentation by Chief of the Russian General Staff Nikolai Makarov in July 2009 a reporter for the Defense Ministry’s newspaper Krasnaya Zvezda pointed out that one of the slides in the commander’s presentation “show that it is, after all, NATO and China that are the most dangerous of our geopolitical rivals.”
“For the first time since the early days of Gorbachev, a high-ranking national commander has de facto acknowledged officially that the PRC is our potential enemy,” Khramchikhin wrote of Skokov’s statement in his 16 October 2009 article in the Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozrenie.
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