SlowManTo serve as a distraction a military crisis either has to be calmed down without any real disruption, or result in a quick, cheap & victorious war.
Starting a war is a very dangerous gamble, If it causes much economic disruption, or turns into a military humiliation, it soon turns the populations attention back to the failings of the government.
See Argentina 1982 & Greece/Cyprus 1974 for failed attempts at distracting the populace via military crises. I’m sure the Chinese government is aware of these & other precedents.
And the Chinese communist party knows whom they should target to divert the public anger.
http://japandailypress.com/anti-japanese-films-and-tv-dramas-on-the-rise-in-china-2025486
Anti-Japanese films and TV dramas on the rise in China
Posted on March 20, 2013 by Ida Torres in Entertainment, Features, National with 1 Comment
Anti-Japanese films and TV dramas on the rise in ChinaIn news that surely comes as no surprise, more and more anti-Japanese films and TV dramas are being produced in China, with around two hundred produced in 2012 alone. But if you think that all this is because of the recent tense territorial dispute between the two countries over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, some say that sentiment has always been there.
Jing Dong, an actor in one of the anti-Japanese dramas entitled Wolf Smoke Everywhere, says that this “genre” has always been a popular one in Chinese media. Film and cultural critic Zhu Dake from Tongji University says that the reason for the sudden popularity in media where the Japanese are the villains is most likely due to the recent regulatory changes by the National Censorship Authority. Without going into specifics, he claims that the department will surely approve your work if it has an anti-Japanese slant to it.
SlowManSo you assume that this program will meet its cost goals. Whats the reason for such optimism?
1. The contractor track record.
2. Limiting the scope of development and recycling components as much as possible.
In what aspects. Sensor Performance? Range? , Survivability? …Oh wait, the F-35 all ready betters the F-16 in these CRITICAL performance areas..
The F-16 flies faster and turns tighter than an F-35. An advanced F-16 will always kill an F-35 in a WVR dogfight.
Why would a BRAND new program be “More” immune to budget cuts when compared to the JSF?
Because this new program would take the place of F-35.
Kindly point out the analysis based on which you are comparing contractors and ranking them on parameters. Lockheed martin, Boeing, NG, Bae work on multiple contracts with the DOD, NASA etc so go into details on which is no. 1 and who is no. 2 and which would have a better chance.
Boeing obviously is the best contractor by far with the proven track record of on time, on budget deliveries.
The F-32 A and C would be entering IOC today had the X-32 won, because Boeing had the foresight to separate the X-32B from X-32A/C common airframe, hence none of the problems that the F-35 is experiencing by sharing A & B airframes.
i would say that the Raptor was a very very ambitious program given the HIGH technology involved, and the timline…The raptor cost over run had as much to do with the end of the cold war and reducing requirments
The F-22 numbers were terminated because of cost overruns, not the other way around.
Advanced Chinese types, that we know nothing about
Anything at or above the Su-35 level of performance is an F-35 killer.
SlowManSorry but no. The world is more complex than Tom Clancy’s novels and no one is going to start a war with one of it’s main trade partners to please some Internet keyboard warriors.
China isn’t a democracy and its government doesn’t work like a democratic government.
When the Chinese communist regime’s existence is threatened, the easiest way out is to start some kind of crisis to redirect the public’s attention away from internal problems toward an external enemy. Starting a military crisis does exactly that.
SlowManThat makes absolutely no sense what so ever…What would this “NEW JET” offer over and above the F-35?
1. Low cost
2. Better A2A performance at least equal to F-16.
why do you think the DOD will change REQUIRMENTS?
There is no money to buy the F-35 with the sequester.
and why do you assume that the new program would be IMMUNE to the same problems that we are seeing in the current project.
Certain contractors perform better than others. Lockheed has a history of cost overruns and delays. No 3rd chances for Lockheed.
No way would it make sense to start afresh and for what reason?
Because the F-35’s gonna get slaughtered by advanced Russian and Chinese types, and destroy allied air forces by being prohibitively expensive.
It is time to cancel the F-35 and start over.
SlowManAnd none of those are going to happen.
It’s happening every day in the East China Sea, where Japanese and Chinese warships and fighters are locking on FCS radars against each other daily. Just push a button and the war starts.
SlowManThe F-35 is very much needed,
The F-35 is not needed at this point.
It’s not too late to scrap the whole thing and start over. A replacement jet could be ready in 10 years if the requirement is for the common airforce/navy jet.
SlowManI forgot to add China vs Taiwan to the possible air war in 2013.
SlowManActual current stage of air combat is that Blue force will pound the crud out of Red Force whose AAA is limited to the odd MANPADS, DshK, RPG and AK-47 trash fire.
I thought you were talking about
China vs Japan
China vs Korea
China vs India
China vs Vietnam
China vs Philippines
China vs North Korea
China vs USA
etc.
In some of above cases, the air war involves first class air forces with first class training and weapons.
SlowManThe current stage of air combat is such that most jets will be shot down by naval/ground SAMs, and the red survivors cleaned out by blue force fighter jets.
SlowManDenmark are doing what Canada and Japan are doing; inviting others to participate so they can get a better price for the F-35.
This is not possible because the F-35 is offered on the FMS term, where the price is fixed and non-negotiable. Lockheed can negotiate offset terms, but not prices.
Every other fighter vendors are willing to negotiate on price.
SlowManSaab Says Gripen Export Chances Rise as F-35 Buyers Review Plans
By Robert Wall – Mar 19, 2013 12:06 PM ETSaab AB (SAABB) says sales prospects for its Gripen fighter are improving as country’s such as Denmark and Canada reconsider buying the Lockheed Martin (LMT) Corp. F-35 Joint Strike Fighter and others set fighter purchase plans.
Sales of current model Gripens and the NG, the next generation model, may exceed 300 units in the next two decades, Eddy de La Motte, head of Gripen Exports said today. A lease of fighters to Malaysia, a new sale to Finland and a follow-on deal with Thailand are possible, he said in an interview.
“We can now offer a fixed price, fixed performance and fixed timetable,” de la Motte said. “The outlook is better than anything I’ve seen.”
Canada opened talks with Saab after the country in December decided to review options amid concerns over mounting costs for the F-35 it was set to buy. “We have got a formal request,” de la Motte said, while adding a decision has not been taken to mount a sales campaign.
“Canada has strong ties to the U.S. and we are really looking at trying to assess our chances,” he said.
More BullishThe Stockholm-based company is more bullish about the outlook in Denmark, another F-35 program partner, where the government said last week it would pick a combat aircraft in 2015. “It is ideal timing,” de la Motte said.
Brazil is among the country’s also considering Gripen. The government recently asked Saab and rival bidders Boeing and Dassault Aviation SA (AM) to extend their offers beyond a March deadline as it considers its plans, de la Motte said.
A lease to Malaysia would be arranged through the Swedish government, rather than Saab directly and may involve as many as 20 planes, he said. The Czech Republic, a current lessor of Gripens, is also in talks with Sweden to extend its use of the jet.
Contract timing, particularly in Eastern Europe, is in flux because of budget pressures, de la Motte said. Prospects there include sales to Bulgaria, Croatia and Slovenia, he said.
SlowManSaab is not working on any 5th gen fighter after soliciting business in Korea(P.306 single engine) and India(P.305 single engine) produced no result, although Saab is still working on the KFX as a consultant.
What Saab is working on for itself is the Gripen E/F of which some 80 examples would be produced for Sweden and Swiss at the cost of $100 million/unit, and Saab can invite Denmark to join this effort. Bits of technology produced for the FS2020 will be used in the Gripen E/F, such as the DSI and various RCS reduction effort.
SlowManIf JSF can be produced at a flyaway cost of ~90 Mn USD
This is the base case scenario(mass production in the 2020s), which doesn’t appear to be possible with the sequester.
There are no other 4.5 gen fighters other than Su-35 and Gripen NG which can be produced cheaper than that.
The Silent Hornet.
SlowManAgainst China, land bases in Korea and Japan are vulnerable to IRBM swarm strikes.
1. Both of those countries will have full-blown anti-ballistic missile defense system in the 2020 time period.
2. In case of Korea, Korea has thousands of rounds of ballistic missiles as counter-battery(Exact number is classified, but the minimum confirmed is 5,000 as the ROK war simulation includes firing of 5,000 ballistic missiles at North Korean targets in the opening theater) They are “officially” aimed at North Korea, but nothing prevents them from being turned 90 degree counter clockwise and be aimed at Chinese targets. Once China and the ROK are in the ballistic missile shoot out, then the US too would join in the mainland bombing actions too(aka Operation Chimichanga), which is the last thing that China would want.
Because of the threats of war expansion, any battle zones of the Yellow Sea will strictly be restricted to Yellow Sea, without hitting the other’s coast line.
SlowManBoeing has this contract in the bag. No way the Pentagon will contract Lockheed for this jet after the F-35 disaster.
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