Simple. J-31 is an attempt to COPY what the Americans have developed on the F-35. And as anyone knows a copy, a Xerox if you will, is never as strong as the original. Every significant feature on the J-31 is a feature first developed by the Americans.
Does anymore need to be said?
No, you dont really need to say anything else.
Just to demonstrate about some difficulties of enabling such a plan of the 108 Gripen E/F for Brazil Air Force, I will use the information from Royal Sweden Air Force for the Gripen E.
And once again I will use the unit cost since I have been doing a comparative analyzes of different numbers of aircraft and contracts from: Sweden, Switzerland and Brazil.Comparative Table Sweden / Brazil / Switzerland
width: 500 class: grid align: center [tr] [td][/td] [td]Type[/td] [td]Number of Gripen NG[/td] [td]Amount of Contract (Billions)[/td] [td]Unit Cost (millions)[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]Sweden[/td] [td]Gripen E[/td] [td]60[/td] [td]Us$ 13.5[/td] [td]US$ 225[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]Brazil[/td] [td]Gripen E/F[/td] [td]36[/td] [td]Us$ 5.4[/td] [td]US$ 150[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]Switzerland[/td] [td]Gripen E[/td] [td]22[/td] [td]US$ 3.297[/td] [td]US$ 150[/td] [/tr] Under the conditions of the Royal Sweden Air Force the entire program would cost US $ 13.5 billion in the period 2023-2043, and this cost would include: flyaway cost, logistics, training and weapon systems.
As you can observe the comprehensiveness of the costs for Gripen E in Sweden would be greater than the proposed contracts for Brazil and Switzerland so far.
Therefore by adopting the same values set by Royal Sweden Air Force to Brazil Air Force with an estimated number of the 108 Gripen E/F, then I would have something like this:
Comparative Table Brazil / Sweden
width: 500 class: grid align: center [tr] [td][/td] [td]Type[/td] [td]Number of Gripen NG[/td] [td]Amount of Budget (Billions)[/td] [td]Unit Cost (millions)[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]Sweden[/td] [td]Gripen E[/td] [td]60[/td] [td]Us$ 13.5[/td] [td]US$ 225[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]Brazil[/td] [td]Gripen E/F[/td] [td]108[/td] [td]US$ 24.3[/td] [td]US$ 225[/td] [/tr] I have done a simplistic and optimistic analysis for the Brazil, since the Sweden will not adopted the Gripen F because of its higher cost of construction and maintenance, and it will use the Gripen D instead the Gripen F.
So I wonder:
How is possible to fit 108 Gripen E / F into the budget from Brazil Air Force today?If anyone says that Brazil has been able to operate 108 Gripen E / F, that is because there are enough resources for such proposal at present time in the Brazil Air Force budget at least to ensure such statement.
While someone says that Brazil will have conditions in the future to operate 108 Gripen E / F, in my humble opinion this is just an enthusiastic statement.
Mauro
The Brasilian MOD Budget is roughly 30 Billion US$ a year, thats five times bigger than the Swedish one…
If the Swedes can acquire 60 to 70 Gripens NG with 6.3 Billion US$ a year, there´s no valid reason for the Brasilians to have problems with 108 airframes. Another way to put it is that 24.3 Billion US$ to be spent in two decades is 4% of the Brasilian MOD´s budget (if it stays the same) for those twenty years. Another way to put it is that the Brasilian MOD Budget is roughly equivalent to Italy´s, and no one in their right mind would question the ability of the AMI to acquire and operate 108 Gripens, if that was their only combat jet.
Yes, i am entirely aware that ~68% of Brasilian MOD budget is spent with personnel (i would be surprised if something similar doesnt happen in Sweden), that a great big chunk of those 68% is for retirement, that the FAB is composed of 70 thousand chaps (why so many? never understood that one), that every year we have the same old news when the Budget is released, “we dont have money to operate our aircrafts/boats/hello´s/tanks/Ferrari´s/whatever” (we have the exact same news in every Western Country), but the fact is that Brasil is right there at the edge of the ten biggest military budgets in the world.
It is only the reaction of someone who coolly analyzes the information before jumping to conclusions.
After all as you are sure about this, once the author of the article has not corrected its text so far, or are you just guessing that the text are wrong.
In my humble opinion I also think the text with the amount of US 5.8 Billion is wrong, however if the value of US $ 5.8 billion for 36 Gripen E / F is wrong, maybe the number of 108 Gripen E / F for Brazil also can not be wrong too?
No, the number of aircrafts is correct, there were severall journos in there, who have published the story (i´ve linked to one of them, by the way), all reported 108 airframes.
Another thing that you might be interested in, in a few day´s (4th December) the Commander in Chief of FAB, Junichi Saito is going to the Brasilian Congress to explain the contract (and more specificaly why it went from 4.5 to 5.4 Billion US$), it should be interesting.
Good news for Christmas 2014.
Anyway I’m not confident in this statement, once it has been changing the signed contract from US $ 5.4 Billion to US $ 5.8 Billion.
So the statement from a leading Brazilian Air Force figure are wrong because the correct value should be US $ 5.4 Billion for 36 Gripen E/F , or the contract has been increased at the US $ 5.8 billion for the same 36 Gripen E/F?
If the value of the contract has been leading for confusion about the numbers from a leading Brazilian Air Force figure at the present time, so imagine about new orders that would reach at total 108 Gripens in a future not yet scheduled?
Now thats a buthurt reaction…
To answer your questions, the “leading Brazilian air force figure” who gave the interview is Brigadier José Augusto Crepaldi Affonso, the “5.8 million U$” thingy was a mistake by the Flight Global reporter. Robert Wall (Aviation Week/Wall Street Journal) went for the same story and got the numbers right, anything else?
http://online.wsj.com/articles/brazil-may-buy-over-100-gripen-jets-1416330991
The F-35’s DAS offers situational awareness far beyond any HMD or HUD on any plane to date. This explains the Chinese attempts to copy it.
An HMD is an HMD, an HUD is an HUD, the AN/AAQ-37 (AKA DAS) is neither.
In fact the F-35 DAS has detected and tracked a two-stage rocket launch at a distance exceeding 800 miles during a routine flight test. This gives F-35 the capability to be part of the USN Fleet defense against ballistic missile threats like the so called “carrier killer’ DF-21D. No HUD or HMD begins to offer this type of capability
You are comparing an HMD or a HUD (or both) to six IIR cameras distributed around an F-35 arframe… And the Chinese are the ones who dont understand what they are doing?
Ok.
And before you answer to this post; do you have hard data on the J-31 sensors in order to make a direct comparison with their American counterparts? No? Then dont bother to answer.
Can anyone see any possibility of cancellation of this production line in Brazil with only 15 Gripen NG scheduled so far?
No
, but who fakes such an image so blatantly and still insists to know the truth is either plain stupid
Deino, almost certainly this one.
For the rest, nothing new here, move along chaps (and a merry weekend for everybody).
Cheers
F-35 cockpit without HUD. Judging from the J-31 layout, it is clear that the Chinese copied the F-35 cockpit slavishly without fully understanding what they were doing.
The PAK-FA, the J-20, the J-31 and every Western evolved proposed version of a “teen” series or “Eurocanards” for the last decade feature an HMD and a HUD.
Cheers
I mentioned the engine earlier. And the RM12 is not a “slightly modified GE F404”, over 50% of it is designed and built by Volvo Aero. But it�s american so… The other things you write about, it´s all american, what has that do to do with England stopping Gripen to be exported to Argentina?
This forum should have a face palm smiley…
Edinburgh is near New York, Gec Marconi was an American Company in Milwaukee, Sea Vixen was a Westinghouse radar that was flown in the F-106 and Selex is an Hawain company, right?
If you replace simple things as ejectionseats, landinggears and parts of the fusalage with SAAB/EMBRAER products AND put the SAAB/Ericsson NORA radar in it, what are the brittish gonna do? Going to the US embassy and cry about the engine?
Let me rephrase that for you:
“If you replace the ejection seat, part of the landing gear, part of the fuselage, the radar with a non existant decade old NORA AESA prototype, the IRST, part of the EW suite, the DRFM Jammer/dispensable radar decoy, the Helmet Mounted Display, and a few bits and other bobs all over the aircraft, what are the brittish gonna do? Going to the US embassy and cry about the engine?”
“What have the romans ever done for us?”
And why would the Swedes and the Brasilians do that? For 24 units?! To Argentina?!!
Snowing all over the place in Ougadougou!
what are the brittish gonna do? Going to the US embassy and cry about the engine?”
This is an interesting question and there are severall things that HM Government could do; but one obvious answer is, the British MOD would simply call any of the main Western electronic and aerospace company´s that might be interested in this “Argentinean Gripen” and ask “do you remember those contracts that you have with us, or those competitions that you´ve entered related to the equipment XYZ?”
The thing is, usually the British MOD is the second biggest Budget in NATO and virtualy every single western defense company has some pretty interesting contracts with them, GE, Thales, PW, GDynamics, SAAB, MBDA, Raytheon, Boeing, etc, etc, etc, you name it… And off course they would be highly interested to get into a row with the British MOD because of 24 airframes for Argentina…
Try Elta.
Oh wait, Crowsnest! The LM offer uses ELTA radars (something around thirty sets)… At least untill Crowsnest is decided, delete ELTA.
With money and will everything is possible, the Gripen could be De-Briticized, they could even cover the entire aircraft with Chinese and Russian kit, but the thing is, roughly 30% of the Gripen NG is British, its an helluva lot of money and will for 24 airframes…
The IRST and radar are on the same unit from Selex, but the alternative is an upgraded PS-05 with IR-OTIS or perhaps integrating RBE2-AA.
PS-05, a radar with a cassegrain antenna built in Edinburgh by Selex; IR-OTIS a two decade old dead program wich was tested in prototype form in 1998 in a Viggen, and finaly Thales, the chaps who designed QE2/POW and have a multi billion, ungodly number of signed contracts, with the British MOD are going to endanger those contracts in order to suply 24 radars to Argentina?
It looks more like a job for Elta…
IFF and EW are SAABs own systems, but perhaps they use antennas from Selex?
Severall bits and pieces of the EW suite are Selex, the most obvious being Britecloud.
Cheers
Long question, short reply; it was cheaper.
When Sweden looked for a new generation fighter in the early 80´s they did something they had´nt done for centuries. They invited foreign customers to compete with SAAB!! It was the F-16 and F-18 Hornet and the Gripen. The Gripen won the deal, but it had to be done by cost saving measures, like COTS in the case of ejection seats and other mediocre things. When it comes to the radar… I am putting a bet that SAAB/Ericsson has already solved that long before the Argentinans put their ink to the paper.
Mediocre things and COTS…
Like the Engine? A slightly modified GE F404? And the entire sensor system? The radar? The PS-05A, the one with the cassegrain antenna built in Edinburgh, taken almost directly from the Blue Vixen, and a great big chunk with a “GEC-Marconi” label on it? And the FBW, the one that was taken directly from the General Dynamics Viper? Or the famous TILDS, that magnificent data link, wich the hardware is entirely a “built in America” thingy, albeit with Swedish specifications…
Freaking hell, the “old” MSA radar, is covered with “Selex” (ex-Ferranti, ex-Gec Marconi) pieces and bits, and SAAB didnt move a finger to “solve” that in two decades.
The entire aircraft is covered with foreign content, far from “COTS” and “mediocre things”, a great big chunk of the propulsion and sensor suite is basicaly Anglo/American hardware.
Next time trawl a bit in the historical content of flight global.
I agree that it is impossible for the UK not to order F-35B for the new carriers. It is the only STOL or STOVL aircraft available. Whether F-35’s will be used by the RAF is far less certain.
617 sqn RAF will be reformed with Dave B in 2016, and I think (not totally sure on this one) 809 NAS RN was only going “up” in 2018.
i think Brazil would co-fund replacement/indigenous solutions
Brasil is not on the business of giving Martin Baker competition. This entire story is a political idiocy from day one.
It was my understanding that the 36 aircraft signed for are only intended to replace the Mirage IIIs and 2000s that have already been retired, with the F-5EMs and AMX to be replaced by follow-on orders.
You are correct
JSF will be made to work (our spam cousins will throw money at it until it does just as they have with almost any other big programme with technical issues) and technically the STOVL version is km ahead of any alternative. I just hope that costs don’t keep rising to the point that it becomes the new B2 ( technically frickin awesome but so expensive that it becomes impossible to have a big fleet so unit cost goes up so fleet size goes down) rather than the new f16 that we were all promised
This is actually one of the best posts in this entire topic, i´ll leave a few comments on it:
a) The program cost has indeed been steadily rising
b) While the production costs by unit have been getting lower, they have been getting lower at a much slower rate than the JPO, LM and the USAF predicted for more than a decade (before 2012/13). According to the 2009 USAF Budget, the (roughly) 85 million US$ URFC that Bogdan is promising for 2019 should have been attained circa… LRIP 7, thats 2013.
c) Specificaly speaking about that anology with a B2, there´s an interesting factoid for the UK and the Marine Corps, the F-35B is the most expensive fighter aircraft on production today (normal, a STVOL, supersonic, stealth strike fighter that weights more than a Tornado GR4 is going to be expensive) and it will probably maintain that status for some time
d) The simple fact that no one “jumped out of the boat” and the program is getting orders outside of the original MOU signers, while being late and the unit cost (roughly) doubled in a decade, speaks volumes on how capable, the multiple air forces that are lining up to receive the JSF, think the aircraft will be
Cheers