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totoro

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  • in reply to: PLAN News Thread #4 #1999782
    totoro
    Participant

    There is also that one-off 093 with a smooth sail but no hump (and drainage holes different from 093A) suggesting it’s either another variant or one of the original 093 being converted to a test bed for the newer, smooth sail.

    in reply to: Japanese airforce capability in the 80s #2142464
    totoro
    Participant

    No

    No

    Yes, yes

    No

    But I may be wrong so people can feel free to correct me.

    in reply to: RuAF News and development Thread part 15 #2142495
    totoro
    Participant

    Of which 13 serving within Air Force.

    in reply to: Was the F-15 the best choice for Japan? #2142813
    totoro
    Participant

    I am trying to find some info on Kai modernization for F-15s. Apparently up to 40 planes were planned to receive the Kai standard, but at one point that was lowered to just 10. But all that data is from several years ago. Does anyone know if there have been new developments on that front? In short, how many F-15 Kai are in service now and how many non-Kai F-15s are budgeted/planned for modernization?

    in reply to: Question about Harpoon RGM-84A and AGM-84A #1783906
    totoro
    Participant

    Yeah, doctrine definitely was different. US focused on protecting high ocean lanes and chokepoints. Basically, only soviet ocean going ships were its concern. And out of those, good deal of them were ASW with no long range anti-ship missile. And those were few in numbers in 1960s. Subs were carrying most of the anti ship missiles for Soviets. Initiative to create harpoon, going after those surfaced subs was started in late 1960s. But it took a bit longer than thought to actually get a missile in service, a whole decade. In 1979 Harpoon production rate was 20 missiles per month. So one could say that from 1980 onward USN had a meaningful inventory of them for their surface ships. (and some for their aircraft. air launched variant became operational 2 years after ship launched one, first to be integrated on ASW planes.)

    In 1970 soviet navy had:
    5 modified kashin destroyers with P-15
    4 Kynda cruisers with p-5
    4 Kresta cruisers with p-5

    Compared to that, ocean going subs with missiles in 1970:
    34 Echo class with p-5
    6 Whiskey with p-5
    16 Julliet with p-5
    6 Charlie with p70 (first class to be able to fire missiles underwater?)
    1 Papa with p70

    (most of p-5 were already modernized variants by 1970)

    So one can see how USN saw little threat from soviet surface navy in 1960s and even good part of 1970s. It was soviet submarines that were by far the bigger threat, and they wanted the harpoon progenitor to go after those surfaced subs, readying to fire their missiles or at least engaging them after they fired theirs. Of course, by 1980s soviet surface fleet also grew in numbers and greater number of soviet subs could fire their missiles underwater so harpoon really became an anti-ship missile.

    in reply to: Question about Harpoon RGM-84A and AGM-84A #1783916
    totoro
    Participant

    Air-launched (guided) bombs and such.
    Also, Terrier had an anti-ship mode from late 1950s, and Tartar missiles had one from the get-go. (however useless those were against a soviet task force)

    in reply to: RuAF News and development Thread part 15 #2177498
    totoro
    Participant

    While BrahMos is basically Onyx, BrahMos-A is something Russians do not use, an air-launched variant of the missile. Russians basically rely on subsonic kh-35 and short reach supersonic kh-31a for their tactical aircraft. Something like brahmos-a could serve them, as it would bit between those two mentioned missiles and the new heavy kh-32 for their tu-22m. That’s not to say russia NEEDS such a missile. it may very well be they considered it and decided such a “medium” missile is not within their requirements.

    in reply to: Chinese air power thread 18 #2178932
    totoro
    Participant

    They have the paint job of the aggressor training squadron.

    in reply to: RuAF News and development Thread part 15 #2186475
    totoro
    Participant

    So if that is true, then Ruaf will have 48 original plus these 6 plus those “newlybuilt” 12 su27sm/3? Those few developmental ones I’ve heard of, were they used in service? Also, possible accidents may have changed the overall number… still, roughly 66 planes might be what we’re looking at here?

    in reply to: RuAF News and development Thread part 15 #2186655
    totoro
    Participant

    Knaaz will hand over 10 Su-35s and 6 modernized Su-27SMs to the VKS this year.

    How many modernized SMs will that be altogether by then? How large was that last batch contracted recently?

    in reply to: RuAF News and development Thread part 15 #2189899
    totoro
    Participant

    So 287 million dollars per bird? Sounds about right what it should be, with restarting after a long hiatus, with bunch of new tech and systems, for a small batch. With salary differences, similar plane contracted in US would have cost 500+ million per bird.

    in reply to: Future of Belgian Air Component #2191572
    totoro
    Participant

    For 3.6 billion euros they should get 34 Gripen E/F and be done with it. Or even just order more F-16s, since they’re already all set for the type. The production line is still open. No shame in not having the newest toys around the block. Defense budget of only 2.5 – 3 billion euros a year will only get you so far.

    in reply to: FC-1 and J-10, did China err by making both of them? #2192547
    totoro
    Participant

    L15 is too light to be taken seriously for anything other than training roles within PLAAF and PLANAF. That being said, out of the trio of lookalikes (Italian and Russian cousins) L-15 is the one with most redesign effort in the realms of supersonic flight. It’s not only the redesigned rear end for the afterburners but lerx, wings and tails are also of different sweep angle. That may be due to advanced training requirements, but it may also signal the maker of L-15 plans to try and advertise their plane to small and poor countries as some sort of ultra-cheap multirole plane.

    in reply to: Is the market for light fighters shrinking? #2192617
    totoro
    Participant

    That market has been shrinking for literally decades. And it was much accelerated by the end of the Cold war. Today we’re left with a situation where small fighters market (i would say not just under 7 tons, but even under 8 tons) is very small.

    There are countries that financed such planes in recent decade or two out of sheer need – for their own air forces. Taiwan was first, then Korea, which glued together its strategic need to advance its aerospace industry and to replace both the F5 fighters and its trainer fleet. So they made a plane themselves. Pakistan is a recent example, somewhat similar to Korea in the sense there was also the political need and financing available to advance the country’s know how. Couple with, in pakistani example, the need to replace a lot of small planes they had operated. For Pakistan, switch from mirage III and J7 to JF17 is still a considerable jump in capabilities.

    And… that’s basically it.

    Surplus old F16s are preventing any new western country player to enter the market. They’re plentiful and with all the life extension programmes US has been working on, they’re sure to be around for a few more decades. The only possible usurper to that might be potential Boeing’s win in TX contest, if Boeing’s design is similar in capabilities to Korean/Lockheed’s offer. If Lockheed wins, they will still be preventing sales of FA-50 whenever they can, as they can earn more from supporting used F16 sales.

    In non-us aligned market, JF17/FC1 is still very much struggling as there simply aren’t that many countries that have enough money to afford 12 planes (or more) but are still poor enough not to be able to afford much more than that.

    South America is pretty much western aligned. They will be buying F16s. Or maybe Korean planes. Asia is a mix and most of Africa is still too poor to upkeep 12 brand new planes. But most of all – there aren’t that many planes sought upon to make a new fighter profitable. Most countries are shrinking the number of planes in their fleets. At the same time, lifespan of planes is getting longer.

    If one was to make a list of countries needing to buy new planes in the next 20 years, substracing the number of countries going for f16 or larger planes, the remaining number of countries would be in single digits probably. And those would likely buy only 6-24 airframes each. And with some light figters already out there, FA50 and FC1, there simply isn’t room in the market for another one. Even if the prospective new kid on the block can get half of all those sales – something like 150 airframes (at very best), that still isn’t enough to cover the expenses involved in development, production and support within a 20 year timeframe. Only possibility remains that a larger country decides to develop a new plane on their own, again for political reasons and advancing its knownhow base, and then tries to offset some expenses by selling their product. So far best chances of that seems to be the new prospective Turkish trainer, which seems it will be in T-50 size, which means it may one day be turned into some sort of combat aircraft.

    in reply to: FC-1 and J-10, did China err by making both of them? #2192641
    totoro
    Participant

    FC-1 was a child of Pakistani need and requirements, and Chinese expertise. Basically, Pakistan came to China and asked if they could design such and such plane for them. Then both sides agreed to share the cost of development to some degree. CAC is still making money on ever airframe made, be it for Pakistan or for export (the latter case should bring in more money per airframe). With Pakistan getting to 50% of domestic production for the plane the pakistani sales are not as profitable.

    One can only guess that CAC had some engineers with nothing to do and they went and made FC1. Contract was signed in 1999 and first plane flew in 2003. It was designed in the time when most of J10 work was over (J10 flew in 1998) and J20 work didn’t heat up yet. Allegedly, lead designer of both FC1 and J20 is actually the same person. After j10, making FC1 was certainly an easier task. Plus CAC could leveraged some knowledge from tests they did on Super-7 project in 1980s.

    What prevents both j10 and fc1 from (serious) export sales is the issue of lack of suitable chinese made engine. It pretty much means J10 has no chance of being sold as long as Russia also offers its Mig-29 to any prospective buyer. And it means only the poorest china aligned countries’ air forces will get the FC-1, as ones with at least a little money will also be eyeing the Mig-29, which will mean russia can, again, choose not to sell the engine. (potentially recent case of Bangladesh contest, though alignment with india and previously existing ecosystem for older mig29 also played a big role)

    Even though we keep reading news about domestic engine being tried on FC-1, to date we haven’t seen a single image. On the other hand, J10 was seen with domestic engine, so one can perhaps assume that j10 actually has bigger chances of being exported in large numbers in the near future.

Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 934 total)