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Tempest414

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  • in reply to: T50IQ – Iraq's new trainer / light fighter #2230138
    Tempest414
    Participant

    that’s rather pricey support for a LIFT! we’re not talking about F22s here… but of course it all “depends” on the actual content. If its literaly just some spare parts and fitting them… too pricey. if it includes MLU / engine changes / overhauls, it gets a bit more “acceptable”… if it includes armaments and the like… then its a good deal.

    it not pricey here is the simple version of the UK RAF/FAA flight per hour system from UK armed forces commentray

    The cost of an aircraft fleet

    There are two tables – Full and Marginal costs. Full cost is the annual cost of everything to do with that airframe including all the support staff, buildings, etc divided by the total number of hours flown in a year. i.e. all direct and indirect costs.

    The marginal cost is the cost of one more hour in the air ignoring all the indirect (fixed) costs, i.e. fuel and maintenance. Full cost per hour will vary with the number of hours flown, marginal will not.
    For example, the following figures were indicated in the 2009-2010 period for a number of platforms:

    Typhoon – Full £68716 Marginal £3780
    Harrier GR9 – Full £35762 Marginal £3945
    C-130 J – Full £11587 Marginal £1888
    C-130K – Full £9924 Marginal £2132
    C-17 – Full £42068 Marginal £4870

    For the Merlin HM1, the Treasury came up with an admortised figure, which has become sadly quite famous, of £41,588 in answer to a question in Parliament.

    However, according to the Defence Aircraft Capitation Rates the operating cost for just the machine is £3,162 per funded flying hour. A Sea King, for comparison, is reported at £3,183 per flying hour.
    The same document, however, then adds on the ancillary costs to each aircraft, eg aircrew, Unit admin, admortization, Westland storage costs for spare parts for a minimum of six months after servicing requests, the cost of RAF Benson and the cost of the still recent restructuring of the Depth Mainteinance process and facility, the cast of thousands in the MoD and the 1000 men at Westland, and with amazing accuracy comes up with £41,588 for the Merlin HM1, around 34.000 for Merlin HC3 and £16,723 for the Sea King 4 and 7.

    As with the C130J, which has a full cost for airframe of 11587 pounds against the C130K’s 9924, the C130J IS cheaper to fly per hour than the predecessor, but it is weighted down by all sorts of other voices of expense that come on top of the proper airframe running expense. Absurdly, the more Full Cost figure would appear lower if there were more flown hours to spread the costs upon. As with the Typhoon, (in service from 2005) the Merlin is, absurdly, still a “young” type. Deliveries of the HM1 were completed only in 2002, and the logistics of the fleet have for long time been, quite honestly, a mess. It is only in 2006 that the situation was rectified, and now it is expected that the costs will steadily decrease.

    in reply to: T50IQ – Iraq's new trainer / light fighter #2230218
    Tempest414
    Participant

    given the tbo of a F404, I think you’re confusing engine changes frequency with that of bowl of peanuts in your local pub* (ok ok loukhoum and green tea to offense no one)!

    *not sure by the way 😀

    you miss the point that 5000 dollars per hour support and service is nothing

    in reply to: T50IQ – Iraq's new trainer / light fighter #2230389
    Tempest414
    Participant

    there is already an air academy with all facilities that already has several aircraft types (cessna 172, lasta, T6, C208 caravan, Bell206)… I don’t see how they can justify $1Bn for service and support cost (even over 25 years)… unless they are planning on buying additional aircraft of the type to be supported from this fund.

    1 billion split between 24 air-frame’s over 20 years is only 2 million per plane per year and over 25 years its 1.6 million lets be fair that’s less than an engine change with the cost of a F-404 at 6 million dollars and then when you split it down again over over 400 hours it comes to 5000 dollars

    and you may have a air academy but will not have simulators for T-50 or engineering or logistical support and training all this will need to be put in place

    and last of all Cessna 172’s / 208’s / Lasta /bell 206 can all operate from no more than a grass strip with little more than shed and half decent tool box to support them

    in reply to: T50IQ – Iraq's new trainer / light fighter #2230659
    Tempest414
    Participant

    the second batch of F16s got their own weapons.

    The $4.2Bn + $2.3Bn for the F16IQ are estimated “lifecycle costs” over the lifetime of the aircraft and NOT the contract price…

    in fact Iraq has paid $3Bn for the 36 F16s and all associated equipment, weapons, spares and training. Additional expenses are “estimates” for the future. You can see these in the FMS contracts for each item. E.g. the 36 Jets “flyaway” cost was $2.2Bn inc radars, engines, CFTs, JHMCS, Sniper pod etc… $61M each. armaments, ground equipment, training, support etc over 2 bases in Iraq (balad AB and Imam Ali AB)… took up the remaining $800M.

    intriguingly they bought 120 JHMCS with the 36 F16s … when they only need 48 for those jets… even taking into account some “spares”… that’s too much. I wonder if they were placing long-lead time orders for JHMCS to be fitted on their training jets? Who knows…

    It would be intriguing if the T-50IQ “service and support” deal includes a shed load of dumb and guided ordnance, a complete overhaul facility for the FA50, training for 1000+ Iraqi engineers and technicians, major updates “R&D expense” etc… but who knows… more than likely they just got fleeced! 😆

    so again I come back to the question if the first lot of 18 F-16’s were estimated to cost 4.2 billion across there life time and all 36 are estimated to cost 6.5 billion why are we worried about 2.2 billion total cost for 20 years for 24 supersonic BVR multi-role capable trainers

    and as you have pointed out the LM deal included 800 million dollars for armaments, ground equipment, training, support etc over 2 bases in Iraq (balad AB and Imam Ali AB) or 400 million per base so it is not unrealistic that 500 million may need to be spent achieving aims and needs of inducting not only a new aircraft type but the hole flight school

    in reply to: Brazil closer to Boeing on jets deal after Biden visit #2231221
    Tempest414
    Participant

    Does anyone really think that given the current political (mostly lack of interest) and economic situation, that Brazil is actually going to order new fighters before 2015? It’s a legitimate question; I’m curious since almost everyone else so far doesn’t seem to think that they will.

    I really doubt that the Rafale costing more than the F-18 and Gripen would be such a factor given the transfer or technology that the French are willing to give and have demonstrate in past cooperations when compared to the US. Who will without any doubt put limitations on the F/A-18 (remember the Australian experience with it?) and can even embargo the Gripen if they choose to. Any difference of price between the Rafale and the other competitors could also easily be fixed not only with the ToT. Sure FAB might have to get less Rafales because of the price, but with local manufacturing they might more easily get further aircraft down the road.

    Honestly, looking at the Rafale’s capabilities and the political relationship between France and Brazil I would expect the Rafale to get more easily an order from Brazil than India. The only difference is that Brazil doesn’t have much of a neighboring threat or in an arms race as India is.

    Best regards,

    I don’t see them making an order until 2020 and feel that leasing 20 or so Gripen’s for 10 years is the way to go and then spending the time looking to replace AMX/F-5 with one type with an order for 110 units with the first 30 units delivered in 2025

    in reply to: T50IQ – Iraq's new trainer / light fighter #2231281
    Tempest414
    Participant

    It is interesting when we put the Iraq deal up against the Philippine deal of 12 FA-50’s for $463 million which would be 926 million dollars for 24 air-frames or 38.6 million dollars each which leads to the question is Iraq being more realistic in what they want and need to inducted this new type into service . Lets not forget that Indonesia paid 25 million per air-frame with no talk of spears or infrastructure

    in reply to: T50IQ – Iraq's new trainer / light fighter #2231371
    Tempest414
    Participant

    I think I may have found some of the answer to the high price of the T-50 in the first F-16 deal

    The first F-16 deal came in at 4.2 billion this included

     18 F-16IQ aircraft;
     24 F100-PW-229 or F110-GE-129 Increased Performance Engines;
     24 APG-68v9 radar sets, the most modern radar available in Block 50 aircraft;
     20 pairs of Conformal Fuel Tanks, which mount along the back/top of the F-16;
     20 AN/APX-113 Advanced Identification Friend or Foe (AIFF) Systems (without Mode IV)
     22 Advanced Countermeasures Electronic Systems (ACES), including the ALQ-187 Electronic Warfare System and AN/ALR-93 Radar Warning Receiver;
     22 AN/ALE-47 Countermeasures Dispensing Systems (CMDS);
     20 Global Positioning Systems (GPS) and Embedded GPS/Inertial Navigation Systems (INS), (using Standard Positioning Service (SPS) commercial code only)

    Plus, publications and technical documentation, personnel training and training equipment, ground based flight simulators, support equipment, tanker support and ferry services, modification kits, Cartridge Actuated Devices/Propellant Actuated Devices (CAD/PAD), spares and repair parts, repair and return, site survey (usually for basing), construction, and other forms of U.S. Government and contractor support services.

    The order also requests weapons and equipment to arm the fighters. Here, too, a number of requests reveal downgraded or past-generation equipment, alongside other requests which are top of the line:

     19 M61 20mm Vulcan multi-barrel cannons, which are mounted internally;
     36 LAU-129/A Common Rail Launchers, which fit the F-16′s wingtips. They can be used with all AIM-9 missiles including the AIM-9X, and with the AIM-120 AMRAAM;
     200 AIM-9L/M-8/9 Sidewinder air-to-air missiles. These missiles are effective, and the AIM-9M missiles are still in widespread American use, but they’re a generation behind the current AIM-9X;
     150 AIM-7M-F1/H Sparrow Missiles. A couple of generations behind current beyond visual range air-to-air missiles. They lack the current AM-120 AMRAAM’s independent radar guidance and other improvements;
     50 AGM-65D/G/H/K Maverick Air to Ground Missiles;
     200 GBU-12 Paveway-II laser guided 500 lb. bombs;
     50 GBU-10 Paveway-II laser guided 2,000 lb. bombs;
     50 GBU-24 Paveway-III laser guided 2,000 lb. bombs with longer glide range and a “bunker busting” warhead;
     20 AN/AAQ-33 Sniper or AN/AAQ-28 LITENING advanced surveillance and targeting pods. Almost certain to be Lockheed Martin’s Sniper, given LITENING’s Israeli origins;
     4 F-9120 Advanced Airborne Reconnaissance Systems (AARS) or DB-110 Reconnaissance Pods (RECCE)

    The second 18 F-16’s came in at 2.3 billion or half as much so if take a price of 25 million dollars per air-frame for T-50 that is 600 million dollars which leave 500 million dollars for spare engines – radars- and other parts as listed above initial training and construction and infrastructure to base the new type plus delivery the second 1billion is for the on going training and support over 20 years

    in reply to: T50IQ – Iraq's new trainer / light fighter #2232482
    Tempest414
    Participant

    When you split the 2.1 billion dollars down for 24 jet over 20 years if each jet fly’s 500 hr a year it going to be $8000+ per hour which is the same as F-16 sounds a lot for a trainer even a Trainer/ light fighter

    in reply to: T50IQ – Iraq's new trainer / light fighter #2232690
    Tempest414
    Participant

    I think all sources are clear on the “cost”.

    $1.1Bn for 24 aircraft
    $1Bn for support over 20 years.

    That gives a unit flyaway cost of $45.8M

    This year Korea and Philippines got their FA50 for a unit flyaway cost of $30M-$31M, and their planes came with the superior Elta El/M2032 radar (which Iraq will not buy).

    So if the Iraqis are getting APG67 radar (from the baseline T50 trainer), then their aircraft should be, if anything, slightly CHEAPER than the Korean/Filipino aircraft!

    Thus the additional $15M per aircraft would make the parliament defence committee, the MOD audit commission and the Finance ministry baulk at a $360M premium for the aircraft contract alone…. unless they are “getting something” for that premium.

    What radar is the F-16IQ packing and could this be fitted to T-50 in some way

    in reply to: T50IQ – Iraq's new trainer / light fighter #2232822
    Tempest414
    Participant

    The RDY-3 radar as fitted to F-1 MF2000 would be a good radar as it would open up the Rafale toy box of weapons

    in reply to: T50IQ – Iraq's new trainer / light fighter #2233353
    Tempest414
    Participant

    The T-50 already comes with AN/APG-67 which will support AIM-7 sparrow up to 60 nm’s BVR and if more power is needed fit the RM-12/ F404 but I do not see this adding 15m to price I would like to see where the money is being spent

    in reply to: Possible Scottish Defece Force #2235108
    Tempest414
    Participant

    I think you are missing some of my points so I will try again. If Scotland vote yes and the SDF stands up in 2016 what ever they have negotiated and been given is what they will have for some time i.e. 10-20 years or more so if we go with the white paper first .

    12 Typhoons from the RAF these are between 0-8 years old so good for 25 years

    6 C-130s due to be retired in 2022 due to high hours from Astan could be pushed to give 10 years service

    A helicopter Squadron ? there is only 27 merlin HC3/3A of which only 25 will be upgraded to HC4 for the Navy and they will fight to keep them as they are going down from 34 Seakings

    And there is no MPA’s

    2 Frigates from the UK. The type 23 is coming to the end of its life costs 16 million a year to operate and has a crew of 185

    4 mine sweepers again these are between 15 -30 years old

    All of this leads to a force fighting to keep old and worn out kit working for 10-15 years

    So what I am trying to say is with a budget of 2.5 billion a year

    Take the 12 Typhoon’s as the main defence fighter (cost £7000 per hour) and lease 18 Gripen’s for 10 years to back up the Typhoon force in the home defence role and as a deployable force as Gripen will be cheaper and easer to deploy (cost £4000 per hour) and at the end of the 10 years you can just give them back and buy a new type or go again. Cost to Scotland £700-800 million for 10 years

    The Herc’s are what they are and post 5 year of 2016 Scotland could order 4 new ones at a cost of about £130 million over 4 years (32 million a year)

    Helicopters as said order 12 Merlin’s and negotiate for the UK to pay for 4 of them this will give Scotland a capable transport helicopter force for 25-35 years at a cost of £124 million over 4 year (2 Merlin’s a year 31 million)

    The Wildcat deal would work the same as would the C-295MPA’s

    The 3 newly ordered 90m OPV’s would be handed over as they came online and the UK would pay for 1 of 4 100m Corvettes

    So in year 1 the UK would pay for 4 Merlin’s 4 Wildcat’s 2 C-295MPA’ s 3 90m OPV’s and 1 Corvette at cost 650 million pounds rather than hand over 2 old Frigates 2 Old OPV’s and a few helicopters this along with the Typhoon’s Herc’s and other assets for Army would that Scotland would be on it own after year one as far as ordering and paying for kit but it would have 4 new ship and six more on order to be built in Scottish dock yards plus the start of a new force of helicopters & MPA’s it would be paying 400 million pounds a year for the first 4 years for 18 Gripen’s 8 Merlin’s 8 Wildcats 4 C-295MPA’s 3 90m OPV’s 3 100m Corvettes which would leave 2.1 billion pound per year in the budget

    in reply to: Possible Scottish Defece Force #2235603
    Tempest414
    Participant

    No need to spend hundreds of thousands on new QRA sheds, work started on the new QRA sheds at the ‘old, old 12 Sqn site’ (Currently the Weapon Training cell) a few weeks back. At the moment the contractors have got access to the plumbing and electricity and soon the foundations will be laid. Next week work begins on Has 8 and 9 to bring them upto Q standard.

    Sounds good but here is hoping the UK stay as one

    in reply to: Possible Scottish Defece Force #2235747
    Tempest414
    Participant

    So here’s the key question- what will the air force insignia look like?

    This could be a good fit taken from the RAAF 1942
    [ATTACH=CONFIG]223576[/ATTACH]

    in reply to: Possible Scottish Defece Force #2236003
    Tempest414
    Participant

    Going back to the OP and what has been set out I like where it is going but I think I would make some changes that I think could see better long term sustainability and allow for deployment as seen fit

    First the air force

    Make Lossiemouth the main air-force base for Fighter – Transport- MPA install QRA sheds at each end of the main runway take 12 Typhoon’s from RAF stocks and base them in the south HAS site (617’s sheds)- lease 18 Gripen’s over 10 years (cost to the Czeck’s 780m Euros should be cheaper now but this works out at about £70m per year) base them in the North HAS site (12B’s sheds)- take 4 C-130’s and the 2 146 QC’s form RAF stocks and base them in 14 Sqn hangars – order 6 C-295 MPA’s of which the UK pays for two base them in 15 Sqn hangars – order 12 Merlin HC4’s of which the UK pays for 4 and base them on the north side of Kinloss also take 12 SeaKing HC4’s from UK stocks as a stop gap and base them in the same place – order 12 Lynx Wildcats HMA2’s of which the UK pays for 4 and take 6 lynx HMA8’s from Navy stocks and base them at a new site at Faslane naval base cost to the UK in year one £350 million for 4 Merlin 4 Wildcats 2 C-295MPA’s cost to Scotland in years 1-5 £225 million for 2 Merlin 2 wildcats 1 C-295 and the Gripen lease ( at £70m ) per year
    [ATTACH=CONFIG]223565[/ATTACH]
    [ATTACH=CONFIG]223566[/ATTACH]
    [ATTACH=CONFIG]223567[/ATTACH]

    Second the Navy

    Faslane would become the SDF HQ and main Naval base. The navy should look to take on the 3 newly ordered (2013) 90m OPV’s from UK stocks and order 3 more to be built on the Clyde have the crane removed and a telescopic hangar fitted also have them fitted with 1 57mm naval gun and 2 25mm cannons – order 4 100m Corvettes ( Khareef Class) to be built on the Clyde of which 1 to be paid for by the UK have these fitted with the same gun and cannon for ease of logistics – transfer one of the Wave class tankers and 1 Bay class landing ship for force support- also transfer 4 Archer-class patrol boats cost to the UK in year one £300 million for 3 90m OPV and one 100m Corvette cost to Scotland in year 1-3 £170 million per year for 1 90m OPV and one 100m Corvette
    [ATTACH=CONFIG]223568[/ATTACH]
    [ATTACH=CONFIG]223569[/ATTACH]

    Thirdly the Army

    The 3 main army bases would be Leuchars – Kinloss and Edinburgh – all the army’s equipment would come from a split of UK assets

    This would give Scotland by the end of year 5
    30 Multi-role fast jets for QRA and able to deploy 6-8 overseas at anyone time
    10 hulls for home waters defence able to deploy 2-3 on anti-drug/piracy duties or as seen fit
    2 support ships able to deploy as needed
    38 helicopters to support naval and troop needs
    6 MPA’s for home waters defence & SAR
    6 Transport aircraft to support deployments
    Cost to the UK £650 million 12 Typhoons – 4 C-130J -2 146QC – 6 Lynx HMS8
    Cost to Scotland in years 1-3 £395 million year 4 £225 million

Viewing 15 posts - 346 through 360 (of 930 total)