Given the number of new upgrades schedule, the good record of the rafale program in introducing new functionalities and massive investment on EW I don’t think you can blame the program to be underfunded. So that is certainly not the reason of not choosing a TD.

Trident,

Yes it seems very comparable to the MALD in terms of concept. It is made to duplicate rafale radar signature, excite air defenses to reveal their positions and jam

Also Thales engineers call into question the efficiency of towed decoy like on the Typhoon or the SH. It will even become a threat to the aircraft they are protecting as it could help future EM missile to track the aircraft with the appropriate CCM.

About cooperative jamming this feature is under experimentation right now among the operational test squadron (CEAM) to define how it should be used among the forces.

On more thing but I am much more skeptical to see it one day : the journalist says that surprisingly even TVC is now in the discussion for the 5th batch.

*****************

There are other interesting stuff in this report regarding ATLC or the Brazilian competition but they are much more controversial and risk to spark a flame. Basically the journalist which has interviewed Grandclaudon as well as other pilots and defense specialists reports that even when taking into account rafale and Typhoon respective limitations in this exercise (as explained in AFM) The rafale has been quite ahead the Typhoon notably in terms of Situational Awareness due to a more comprehensive data-fusion capability. Basically they explain that the way that sensors back up each other is not as good in the typhoon and that Typhoon pilots have more efforts to make to get the right picture of the tactical situation.

About F22, it seems that the USAF pilots wanted to blow the rafale in dogfight encounters to make some PR but they found out that it was much more difficult than thought with only one loss and five draw in six encounters. French pilots said that they wanted to use the mica IR for dogfighting versus the sidewinder but that was refused by the USAF.

About Brazil they acknowledge the gripen excellent commercial offer (with brazil ability to become a full partner) and the powerful lobby that support SAAB but they stay that on a pure technical standpoint although the gripen offer about the same kind of systems on the paper there is still overall a capability gap between the two aircrafts.
They also say that if the decision to buy the rafale does not occur in june max then it will means that nothing could be signed due to the election and that anti-rafale lobbies could well have a greater say after the election.

For the UAE and Brazil an HMS is part of the rafale offer.

According to the French magazine “Air & Cosmos” , A “stealth RAFALE demonstrator” will be funded (according to the very official 2010 french defense budget) to increase its stealth capabilities. Apparently the solution that will be adopted is active stealth (Spectra developments, developped by CEA/DGA). This capability should be operationnal with the 5th batch of the RAFALE program.

Air & Cosmos report that the French government is funding a demonstration of improved stealth technology for the Dassault Rafale fighter, with a focus on active cancellation techniques.

Active cancellation means preventing a radar from detecting a target by firing back a deception signal with the same frequency as the reflection, but precisely one-half wavelength out of phase with it. Result: the returned energy reaching the radar has no frequency and can’t be detected. It’s quite as difficult as it sounds. Some reports have suggested that the so called SP-3 or ZSR-62 “radar jamming device” planned in the early days of the B-2 program was an active cancellation system. It did not work and was scrapped in 1987-88. In 2005, Northrop Grumman paid $62 million to settle a False Claims Act case involving the system.

The fact that a new demonstrator is being contemplated suggests that the technology may not have been up to the job the first time round – but since AC depends on electronics and processing, that picture may have changed. MBDA and Thales, which absorbed Dassault Electronique and is now the prime contractor on Spectra, have since confirmed that they are working on active cancellation for missiles.

The whole Spectra program has been a major venture, including the construction of four new indoor test ranges, including the colossal Solange RCS range discussed in Ares in 2007. That facility will probably play a major role in the new demonstrator program.

http://qalaat.wordpress.com/2010/04/07/stealth-rafale/

original link :

http://forum.keypublishing.co.uk/showthread.php?t=96119&page=9

The basis of loke suggested debate is that the rafale is on the verge of getting a new set of upgrades on top of that are expected to be fielded in service with the french airforce for the next batch (already financed and ordered and almost developed) :

So while nothing is 100% certain the UAE rafale is worth talking…

LONDON and PARIS – The United Arab Emirates and France are discussing a proposed joint effort to develop a more capable, new-generation Dassault Rafale strike fighter, sources in the Arabian Gulf and Europe said.

“The conversation has moved forward from buying the Rafale to how to co-develop the next-generation Rafale,” a defense source in the Arabian Gulf said. The prospective new model would meet UAE requirements and “take the plane to the next level,” the source said.

A co-development with a foreign customer and partner would be a big boost for the twin-engine fighter jet, which is seen in France as a jewel of aeronautical excellence and the crown of the country’s arms-export efforts. Dassault Aviation has entered the Rafale in bidding for contracts in Brazil and India, and has offered it to Kuwait and Libya.

The UAE negotiations center on the systems and engine the upgraded aircraft would carry, the Gulf source said.

The main upgrades are said to be an active electronically scanned array radar, frontal sector optronics and an electronic warfare suite, systems supplied by Thales, and a 9-ton-thrust M88 engine, up-rated from the 7.5-ton engine that powers the French Air Force and Navy Rafales.

Last June, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said the United Arab Emirates was in discussions to buy the Rafale, which Dassault bills as an omnirole fighter. The jets would replace the Mirage 2000-9s bought from France in 1998.

Some 50 French executives were in Abu Dhabi in the week of April 12 as part of the talks, an executive at a rival fighter maker said.

“I can confirm the first,” said a French executive close to the discussions. “We are working flat out on negotiating the contract and ancillary contracts.”

The executive confirmed that the negotiations go beyond just a purchase, and are aimed at agreeing on co-development of an advanced version of the Rafale.

“There are, effectively, discussions between the two governments on how to finance the additional functionality,” the executive said.

The co-development work is expected to take years, he said, adding that whether the work will make the new variant a “next-generation” Rafale is a question of semantics.

The executive said industry is working on the technical definition of the aircraft, while the financial aspects are being negotiated at the government level.

A June date for concluding a deal “is possible, not guaranteed,” he said.

A second French defense executive said of the negotiations, “All the lights are green.”

A Dassault spokesman would not confirm that a joint development effort might be part of the UAE-French discussion about the possible purchase of Rafales.

“Talks are continuing,” he said.

Fighter Swap?

One European executive with knowledge of the deal said Paris has agreed to buy back the Mirage 2000-9s and put them into service with the French Air Force, then put its Mirage 2000-5s on the secondhand market and retire the Mirage 2000N nuclear strike version.

Asked about the buyback of Mirage 2000-9s, the Gulf source said, “It is all linked.”

Such a deal would be expensive, said Etienne de Durand, director of security studies at the Institut Français de Relations Internationales, a Paris think tank.

De Durand said Rafale export sales help fund the development of new capabilities, maintain design skills and keep French industry at the cutting edge of world fighter technology. That is why France is ready to agree to extensive technology transfer to sell the Rafale to Brazil, and why “smart arrangements” are being offered to the United Arab Emirates, he said.

But de Durand said that it often takes years to see whether the arrangements really do make sense. Maintenance of technological capabilities needs to be balanced against funding the operational needs of the armed forces, notably among middle-rank powers such as Britain and France, he said.

If the deal brings Mirage 2000-9s into the French Air Force, it could reduce the money available for buying and upgrading the Rafale, de Durand said.

Privately, French Air Force officials worry about taking in the 2000-9, which will mean operating and supporting a mixed fleet when the Rafale was intended to replace seven different types of aircraft in the Air Force and Navy.

Engine Upgrade

Snecma, which declined to comment on the talks, announced several months ago that it was considering developing a more powerful variant of its M88 engine for UAE Rafales.

In a press pack distributed at the Singapore Air Show in February, the French aircraft engine and equipment maker said, “For the UAE Air Force & Air Defense, which require more power for enhanced combat agility and improved performance in very hot weather, Snecma is considering the development of a more powerful variant of the M88 jet engine.

“Snecma has already demonstrated the feasibility of the 9-ton version of the M88, allowing for the design-related risks to be under control.”

Snecma would adapt the M88, not design a new engine, the company said.

Ordering Advanced Arms

The United Arab Emirates is known for funding state-of-the-art fighter development. In a forerunner to the potential Rafale deal, the Emirates funded the development of the Block 60 variant of the U.S.-designed F-16, adding an active electronically scanned array radar, new engine, electronic warfare and infrared gear, better cockpit avionics and conformal fuel tanks.

The Gulf state also has a history of working with France to develop advanced military equipment.

The Damocles laser targeting pod was co-developed for the UAE Air Force’s Mirage 2000-9 under the name Shehab. The French arms procurement office bought nine Damocles pods in 2008 for its Mirage 2000D and Rafale F3 aircraft.

If the Emirates does buy the Rafale, no immediate orders are expected for missile maker MBDA, as the Gulf nation has a stock of Mica air-to-air missiles and Black Shaheen cruise missiles for its Mirage 2000-9 fleet, which would be compatible with the Rafale.

The Dassault static display at the Paris Air Show last year included a Rafale with three mock-up cruise missiles, demonstrating its long-range strike capabilities.

Later market prospects for MBDA would come with the AASM guided propelled bomb and the Meteor beyond-visual-range missile. The long-range weapon is due to enter service with the French Air Force around the middle of the decade.

Dassault-UAE May Have Rafale Deal This Year

By PIERRE TRAN

Published: 3 May 2010

PARIS – Discussions between France and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on a prospective next-generation Rafale strike fighter are taking longer than expected but Paris hopes an agreement can be reached on a “common core” aircraft by the end of the year, a French official said May 3.

An agreement reached by “the end of 2010” would open the way for delivery of the more capable Rafale model in 2014 and a flying operational life in 2015, said the official, who is familiar with the negotiations.

The talks on cooperation also mean the French Air Force and Navy could get an advanced F4 version of the Rafale earlier than planned. The F3 standard is just entering service and is expected to fly until 2018-20.

The F4 model would be a true “fifth-generation” aircraft, the official said.

A buyback of the Mirage 2000-9 fleet flown by the UAE has not been agreed with France, but remains a “hypothesis among others,” the official said.

There is “a small club” of countries flying the Mirage 2000 into which the UAE could sell the Mirage 2000-9 aircraft, the official said.

The main additional capabilities under discussion with the UAE include an active electronically scanned array radar, advanced electronic warfare and frontal sector optronics gear, and a nine ton thrust version of the M88 engine.

Dassault Aviation is prime contractor for the Rafale. Thales builds the electronic systems, Snecma the M88 engine

French mindef :

You never miss an opportunity to be the “sales representative” of the French armament industry for export. What about the record of the purchase of the Rafale by Brazil and negotiations with the UAE and Switzerland?

We are confident. The Brazilians have announced a decision around May 15. The discussions are progressing constructively with the UAE. Switzerland, meanwhile, has completed its trials, and I do not doubt that the results are extremely favorable to the Rafale. I suggested to our Swiss friends to benefit from our air space , because theirs is limited , and offered them facilities on the Luxeuil airbase. We might even have a common maintenance on the aircrafts.

Hervé morin interview (french mindef)

You never miss an opportunity to be the “sales representative” of the French armament industry for export. What about the record of the purchase of the Rafale by Brazil and negotiations with the UAE and Switzerland?

We are confident. The Brazilians have announced a decision around May 15. The discussions are progressing constructively with the UAE. Switzerland, meanwhile, has completed its trials, and I do not doubt that the results are extremely favorable to the Rafale. I suggested to our Swiss friends to benefit from our air space , because theirs is limited , and offered them facilities on the Luxeuil airbase. We might even have a common maintenance on the aircrafts.
[…]

Lula said that he won’t leave this decision to the next government…You can never be certain but for the moment it is the info we are given.

The delay is perhaps not that worrying if it is to prepare a choice that will be difficult to attack. Certainly if the rafale is chosen in this report you can expect a very aggressive lobby/media campaign from SAAB or Boeing. Before taking a decision you should prepare to defuse or debunk criticisms. Otherwise you can be dragged in a political nightmare…Especially during an election time. So waiting a few more weeks might be worthy.

The question for me is whether Lula and Jobim feel that they are ready to endorse this choice. Perhaps as Loke suggested they feel that the french global offer is not that good (too expensive, less offset) and they don’t want to take the risk of being attacked knowing that some criticisms could be funded.

But this is only speculation and I think it is very difficult for us to measure the fight of influence between the three competitors. By definition influence is hardly measurable and it often happen behind the curtains. These press releases are nice but they are the emerged part of the iceberg. I don’t think it can be decisive compared to the big political game.

It could also just be a clever way to avoid further pressure from sweden and US and their lobbies and taking time to make a deal favourable to the rafale with little possible way to call it into question (also probable giving that a 180° change of Jobim stance is unelikely)… No really you can’t draw any conclusions with this statement. It just reveal the level of paranoia some have reached with this selection process. With all due respect your speculation is grotesque. Not that it could not be true in this end (everything is still possible until something is signed) but there are so many way to interprete (see first sentance) that there is nothing you can interprete with a good reliability. Just wait and see.

the way some people have this ability to read between the lines to fit their view/dreams is amazing…You are perhaps right perhaps not and that is not with this press release that you can come with a relieable conclusion. We are too much of an outsiders to be precise in this case.