arthurosoon an end ?
Has the President a deadline for the decision?
No. The president can postpone the decision as you like – or did not decide anything. If this happens, the selection process can go to the drawer or left to the next president.
This would be the worst scenario in view of the military interested in the modernization of its area. In evaluating a source of Aeronautics, an uncertainty could “demoralize” the Brazilian selection process, undermining negotiations in the future.
The expectation among the president’s advisers is that a decision is actually taken, to be announced at the beginning of the year, avoiding a possible tear to the government during the election campaign.
from:
http://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/mat/20…-915493798.asp
http://translate.google.fr/translate…-915493798.asp
arthuroDoes this article refer to the latest evaluation then ?
The cost of the advance
It takes the government to decide which game will equip the Air Force delays plans for defense of the country and threatens the credibility of the negotiations with the three finalists
Claudio Dantas Smith and Octavio Costa
FIGHTING Factory Dassault: 36 fighters would cost $ 10 billion
The competition for the purchase of 36 fighter jets by the FAB, estimated at $ 10 billion, seems an endless novel. In the latest chapter, the Defense Minister Nelson Jobim announced further postponement in the selection of fighters, this time to January 2010. It said the reasons for and command of the FAB remain silent so as not to break the hierarchy. The cost of this uncertainty is enormous, because it affects not only the credibility of the negotiations and delay the defense plans of the country, which sees its airspace vulnerable. “You can not stay in this litany. Whether the political criterion, either by coach, you need to resolve them, “said retired Colonel Geraldo Cavagnari, the Center for Strategic Studies at Unicamp. He explains that, once decided to purchase, will run six months until the contract is signed. For the analyst of international security Gunther Rudzītis is necessary to prevent a repeat of the failure of the FX program, held over the last year of the Cardoso government, and finally canceled in 2003. Brazil is in urgent need of a generation of fighter aircraft to ensure the safety of the heavens and their wealth in the territorial sea. ISTOÉ obtained confidential details of the offers of the finalists: the French Rafale from Dassault, the American F-18 Super Hornet, Boeing, and the Swedish Gripen NG, the Saab.
The report shows the FAB strengths and weaknesses of each plane using a color code (blue, yellow and red) instead of notes.
Of the three, the French jet introduced technology package more comprehensive and Swedish appears at first sight, had the best price. Your unit value, without the package of armaments and maintenance costs, is U.S. $ 50 million. It would be a good deal, not for the Gripen NG only one project in development. This makes it impossible to calculate their real costs and ensure compliance with deadlines. Despite the expectation of development together with Embraer, the dome of Defense knows that choosing the Gripen NG would be like signing a blank check. FAB this item marked in red. “You can not buy what is on the drawing board,” warns Cavagnari. In fact, the historical records of the airline industry in the world attest to the instability of estimates on a plane is not yet operational. The F-18 Super Hornet, for example, showed average growth of 100% between the amount originally planned pelosfabricantes and the final cost of the project, which reached U.S. $ 9.5 billion.
SHADOWS The French Rafale is a fighter with more ability to remain invisible to enemy radar
Nevertheless, the U.S. fighter is offered today at a stable price of $ 55 million. In the case of the Rafale, to be fully operational, it took 7.5 billion euros (U.S. $ 10.9 billion), a difference of 50% over the initial estimate. Your unit price without arms and support was 94 million euros ($ 136 million) when he began to be sold, but then fell to 54 million euros ($ 78 million). This is the value offered to Brazil in the last proposal and even practiced by Dassault with the French government. Besides the price issue, raised by President Lula during the visit of French counterpart Nicolas Sarkozy ABrasilia in September, is at stake in the term. According Cavagnari, the defense sector is in the process of dismantling advanced, which began in 1995. “We have immediate needs of air power that must be addressed,” he explains. Then there is another problem. FAB to receive the first aircraft in 2014. Who guarantees to deliver the request in a timely manner? Dassault is in the production line of Rafale heated by new orders from the French government, which gives security to meet the deadlines. The Boeingtradição punctuality in sales of F-18. Already a Saab should take eight years to make their hunting operation. For example, the radar that will equip the Gripen began to be developed this year alone.
“To have an idea, Saab develops radar Caesar for the Typhoon fighter for five years and forecast to be ready is 2016. Now they say they can develop a similar radar, the Raven, to equip the Gripen NG, 2011. I find it unlikely, “said the expert Pedro Paulo Rezende. Another important point in the analysis of FAB is the cost of flight-hours. An airplane that consumes too much is not feasible in the long term. The time of flight of the F-18 is $ 11 thousand, while that of the Rafale is U.S. $ 14 mil. Since the Gripen, according to Saab, it would be $ 4 mil. But the Technical Committee of the FX-2 (Copac), from calculations based on data extrapolated maintenance Gripen C / D (prior to version NG), found a very different value: U.S. $ 8 mil. Similarly, Norway and the Netherlands, to assess the Swedish hunting, came to U.S. $ 10 mil. The divergence of information led to the FAB mark this item Gripen in yellow attention. The F-18 won blue for that matter, but reddened under “radar signature”, which means tracking by enemy radar. The Rafale, according to official figures, the game is more “invisible” among competitors.
In a recent mock exercise with the U.S. Navy, the French jets “dropped” six F-18 and lost only two aircraft. The U.S. pilots said they could only see the Rafale on the radar when it was too late to react. Now, who needs to act fast is the Brazilian government.
arthuroThe fact is that neither Rafale NOR Typhoon are as mature as they should be
Any one would want more but to compare the rafale to the typhoon in terms of maturity is unfair for the typhoon : the rafale is several years ahead. Just Look what a rafale F3 can do compared to a typhoon today.
By contrast, there’s no sign of a helmet sight for Rafale, nor of a modern IRST (leaving aside the 48 obsolete OSF sets), nor of an engine developing sufficient thrust.
You are misinformed : rafale main customer (namely the Armée de l’air and the Marine National) are currently very satisfied with the thrust delivered by the M88. As a consequence when they had to invest on new capabilities they prefered to invest on lower operating costs rather than in a thrust increase.
Besides an aircraft that can carry more than its weight of ordonnace and routinely outflown teen fighter jets and “eats” some typhoon time to time I would not consider that bad ! It also routinely operate from aircraft carriers with heavy config, can SC …mmm Not underpowered !
HMS : ok it doesn’t have but it doesn’t affect its overall operational performance as shown in international exercises.
OSF : waiting for the next technological breaktrough. Current works well.
arthuroArthuro,
Your ‘multi role Rafale’ isn’t yet that relevant to current operational scenarios.
current means of course A-stan but a larger definition would encompass regional conflicts such as iraq or kosovo as the most pending/probable future threat (iran, syria) would be relatively similar. An aircarft should be able to cope with today and the next decade threats. Beyhond a decade there are too much uncertainty (political, technical etc). But politics/military can realistically brace for the next decade threats. And the rafale is already a much more relevant platform to brace for any possible scenarios.
SCALP is of limited usefulness outside big ‘Cold War’/Desert Storm type scenarios, and while I like AASM, and wish we had something like it, it’s too expensive to be matched against many of today’s target sets.
What are the potential/probable threats in the next decade you have to deter or to fight ? (outside A-stan)
Iran or Syria comes to mind. SCALP and AASM would be a perfetct fit in this scenario. The UAE invested a lot to get this capability. Stand off strike capability is much more requires than BVR, as SAM are much more widespread and easy to operate than a full airforce fleet which can be easily grounded when airbased are anhiliated in the first hours of a conflicts.
Rafale has NO targeting pod, and thus lacks any autonomous LGB capability. It doesn’t have ROVER. It isn’t cleared to carry PWIV, which is the ‘theatre entry standard’ for Afghanistan. It has no helmet sight (as relevant to A-G ops as A-A).
the targeting pod is coming in april so this is just tomorrow. It has a decalco dadalink for CAS purpose which is complementary/stop-gap solution waiting for rover. Not ideal but it does the job and this shortcoming will be adressed in a very close future with a 100% probability.
The fact that a typhoon can’t take on any well defended ground target in bad weather conditions is a big shotcoming. This should be regarded as a basic capability for a modern fighter jet just like BVR.
Fact is the Typhoon can’t compete operationnaly : nor yesterday nor today and most probably nor tomorrow. It doesn’t offer 10% of what a SH, F35 or rafale can do. It is not a bad aircraft but designed to fight the xrong wars with too little development.
PS : The mirage 2000D didn’t have the damocles at this time but the PDLCT-S which dates from the nineties. Only the SuE had the damocles.
arthuroEven if the Typhoon appeared to be superior in AtoA that would not make it a better aircraft in my opinion.
You can talk about SC, supersonic agility, international exercises performance as much as you want but that stands very far from current/close past war needs.
(past wars because future airctaft specifications are often extracted from recent past conflicts scenarios). A SH, a rafale, a F35 would have been much better suites in iraq, kosovo, iraq2…
For the future/current, possible, realistic NATO threats for the next decade like Iran, Syria, afagahnistan requires multirole aircafts not specialized Air dominance fighter with marginal AtG capabilities like the typhoon which would be of very little use.
So appart escorting a few russian bears or blackjack what will be typhoon contribution to the wars of its time ?
Performance should be defined not as raw datas but by the added value you bring to the fight. The ability to face a very wide range of tactical scenarios is the real strenght of a fighter airctaft today. The F35, rafale and SH is the way to go in my opinion. (and I’ll perhaps add the gripen NG if it becomes a reality!)
arthuroa rafale or a SH will never be as cheap as the gripen, we are talkin about two different category of aircraft in terms of weight/size. But that is hardly a scoop.
But SH and rafale figures are certainly more reliable as they are already in service. One could reasonably question gripen NG’s projected costs, but anyway it will be cheaper than the SH and the rafale. Just that the price gap in still uncertain.
The big drawback of the rafale is the price of its spare parts/missiles which makes its maintenance duties more expensive due to fewer economies of scale.
Anothe big liability is that all rafale costs are in Euro. So on top of higher operating costs you have to add the unfovarable currency rate. That’s the double kiss cool effect:D and explain such important prices.
You can add a notoriously high workforce cost in france (you nead to bear the cost of the costly social protection system) and you loose cost/price competitiveness.
To balance this, the rafale is totally US independent but it comes at a big price…
arthurowell jackonicko if any article come from you/Jon lake then understand that we could be suspicious given your inclination for the typhoon and close ties with BAE.
I’d be glad to hear the other part of the story but much preferably from someone different than you/JL who already dismissed an RAF air chief marshal about his experience of the rafale, a flight test pilot who flown the rafale, who said the rafale demo was tame when it won two trophies at RIAT, who tried to spark fake rumors about ATLC before this “unexpected press conference”, who quote unnamed uncheckable sources which contradict with what I personally get from pilots/industry folks…
Not to mention single BAE/RAF source article which was more a tribune in response to the positive rafale flight test. And I missed many other examples…
arthuroThe RAF does the same sometimes. Remember the F15E story ? 2-0 in 30 seconds for the typhoon if I remember well.
arthuroYou can talk as much as you want about rafale vs xyz but that is just a pissing contest and far from the reality of modern air warfare.
The strenght of the rafale and what really makes it superior to the typhoon (in my opinion) is that it can face a much wider range of operational scenarios. And even in the air to air role it is not proven that the typhoon would perform better.
air superiority, CAS, long range deep strike against high valued target, anti ship, SEAD, recce, buddy buddy refuelling, multiple stand-off strike, nuclear deterrence…
That what one could reasonably ask from a modern 4th generation fighter jet but the typhoon cant and it is unclear if it would get some of these capabilities in the next decade. Because for now it can’t compete. Its only role is to escort russian bears and blackjack and make some nice pictures. That’s not even a caricature when you think about it.
arthuroplease dont just tell me it was demonstrated, tell what sensors and how they were used
to keep it simple i havent asked how the rafale was able to detect the sam at 15-20ml but didnt die
This is your own assumption that it detected the sam site at this distance. I doubt that any airforce is going to release accurate datas about detection range etc…That is confidential.
My answer : Thanks to interferometry (as mentioned in the fox three release posted above) Spectra RWR was able to geo-locate the SAM site and identify it thanks to its threat library.
But if they mention/advertise this capability it is certain that this is operationally relevant.
arthuroAnother unique capability, according to Col. François Moussez, the French Air force’s Rafale program officer is that it can fire missiles at targets detected and designated by its integrated Spectra countermeasures suite, again without any need for active transmissions that can give away its position.
Tmor was quicker than me on this one !:D
Thanks;)
jackjack
this capability above is connected with the ability to perform SEAD as you nead 3D localization. In fact it is even more demanding as the threat is moving.
Both pasive interception and SEAD were demonstrated either in testing or in international exercises.
So we don’t know a lot about spectra “active” capabilities (jamming) but its passive detection performance is widely reported in exercise report and not only by the french air force.
-If you turn on your radar (especally mech radar) you’ll be probably detected at twice the range of your own radar max detection range.
arthuroI’ve got another source from 2006 (that I’ll post this afternoon hopefully) where a pilot directly and clearly say that a mica can be fired with spectra coordinates only.
The fact that spectra can give a bearing and a precise distance (3D localization) is a clear indicator of this capability.
Remember the last rafale flight test by peter colins : the osf was slaved to spactra RWR. That means the TV optics/zoom can be accurately trimed according to the distance and the bearing to get a neat image in the cockpit. That is another clear indication of this 3D capability.
add the tiger meet article (SEAD capability) and the greek report where HAF pilots report spectra to be able to track other fighter radars (F16, mirage 2000 I guess) several hundreds of nautical mile away and you have a good picture of Spectra passive identification capability.
My own guess is that this capability is probably what gave an edge to rafale latest BVR confrontation in the UAE with the long range visual indentification. I don’t see other parameters being decisive (missile range, top speed etc). But that is just a personal guess !
arthuroI finally found it but that was during tiger meet, not red flag :
Un mot sur Spectra pour clore ce trop bref panorama.
Les Rafale du « Côte d’Argent » disposaient de la version définitive de l’ensemble de guerre électronique. Soucieux de ne pas en dévoiler toutes les capacités, les équipages n’ont pas utilisé le système au plus fort de ses possibilités, évitant notamment tout emploi offensif. Mais le mode passif d’écoute et de détection de la menace, avec la capacité d’interférométrie, a largement été exploité. Les équipes techniques ont pu faire évoluer les bibliothèques de menace pendant le Tiger Meet, tout en développant leur connaissance de cet outil bien particulier. Le deuxième jour de l’exercice, le « Comao » devait notamment s’attaquer à un site de missiles sol-air. En jouant des capacités interférométriques de Spectra, de la puissance de l’OSF et de la transmission de données par L16, les Rafale ont pu détecter, identifier et détruire le site à longue distance en tirant « virtuellement » des missiles AASM (3).
arthuroI don’t remember…But I found this meanwhile from the last fox three :
The Spectra(4) multi-spectral, totally integrated electronic
warfare suite is designed to ensure efficient electromagnetic
detection, laser warning, missile approach warning
using passive IR detection technology, jamming and
chaff/flare dispensing. Three-dimension direction-finding
accuracy is excellent, and the time taken for signal identification
is extremely short. Its very high processing power
gives outstanding detection and omni-directional jamming
performance through active antennas, optimising the
response to match the threat, even in a multi-threat environment.
The location and types of systems detected by Spectra can
be recorded for later analysis, giving Rafale operators a
substantial built-in ELINT capability.
arthuroHello jackjack,
I think that you are not up to date about rafale capabilities (no offense meant at all).
It was widely reported by the French air Force that Spectra+AASM can provdide a SEAD capability…Most of the regular posters (including non french like scorpion82) can attest it.
The most clear example was the last red flag deployment. I think I saved this article on another computer, so if you are a little bit patient you will have the direct source.
if someone else as this article I would be thankfull if you post it that would spare me some time.
regards.
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