Gripen NG for India’s MRCA competition

Swedish Budget Review Looms Next Year
Aviation Week & Space Technology
09/10/2007, page 52

Robert Wall and Joris Janssen Lok
Stockholm and Linkoping

Sweden and Saab head toward key strategic choices next year

Printed headline: High Stakes

Despite rumblings of a significant defense budget cut this year, Sweden will be able to sidestep a large reduction for now. However, it is likely to see a critical review of future military plans next year as a series of important studies on threats and force levels draw to a close.

Sweden’s finance minister has floated the idea of a considerable reduction in defense spending, but Defense Minister Mikael Odenberg expresses confidence that nothing draconian will be included in the 2008 bill to be submitted to parliament on Sept. 20. “There will be no major shifts,” he asserts.

In particular, he signals that an important effort to support Saab’s Gripen fighter will not be caught up in the budgetary balancing act. In June, parliament approved a joint government-industry plan to streamline and upgrade the fighter. The air force’s Gripen fleet will be limited to 100 aircraft, but all in the most modern standard, which requires overhauling 31 A/B models to the C/D version. Moreover, the 4.1-billion-krona ($602-billion) plan funds a Gripen demonstrator program to devise new capabilities, including increasing fuel capacity 35-40%, adding hard points, new electronics, and a more powerful engine (with 25% more thrust). Odenberg indicates the contractual go-ahead is imminent.

Saab is already working on the effort and has completed some wind tunnel tests, although the mold line configuration hasn’t been frozen, yet, says Johan Lehander, managing director for Gripen International. The demonstrator, which is a rebuilt air force aircraft, is scheduled to fly next year. Saab also is in talks with potential U.S. and European partners to help provide an active electronically scanned array radar. Whoever is selected will be expected to work closely with Saab Microwave, the company’s radar unit.

Saab has begun wind tunnel tests for its Gripen demonstrator, but is still refining the exact mold-line configuration.

The demonstrator program has taken on additional importance with the release of a request for proposal from India for 126 fighters (86 single- and 40 dual-seat aircraft).

Saab believes whoever wins in India will have a leg-up on a number of other fighter competitions, and is aggressively trying to devise an industrial package to offer India to help bolster its case. Some industry analysts believe the program could grow to 300 aircraft. “This is really a pivotal time” and is destined to define the competitive landscape for fighters for the next two decades, says Tony Ogilvy, Gripen International’s director for India. Bids are due in six months. Saab would build the first 18 Gripens in Sweden, with the rest to be produced by Hindustan Aerospace Ltd.

Next year also is shaping up to be crucial in Saab’s home market, when, as Odenberg indicates, a major defense spending review looms. Three efforts will feed into that process: the first is the report from a parliamentary committee regarding Sweden’s security situation; another is an assessment of the impact of a slew of cutbacks (taken in 2004) on the armed forces, and the third involves the results of a force planning drill by the military. The budget will see only slight modifications this year as the government waits for a full appraisal of these undertakings, Odenberg notes.

Another issue likely to weigh heavily in the review is the new level of military assertiveness in Russia. Long-range bomber missions by the Russian air force, as well as the decision to plant a subsurface Russian flag at the North Pole, have caught the attention of Sweden and have raised some concerns within government and industry.

Other strategic considerations likely to factor into funding allotments include Sweden’s involvement in the European Nordic Battlegroup. Its original operational date of January may be accelerated to cover a French-proposed European Union mission to Chad, now in discussion. That mission would come on top of deployments to Afghanistan and European efforts in the Darfur region of western Sudan.

As Saab has expanded its operations through acquisitions, it has become less dependent on Sweden as a customer, although any major spending realignment would nevertheless affect the company.

Saab President and CEO Ake Svensson notes that he is somewhat worried that by concentrating on global markets, the company may have lost its focus on long-term research and technology.

One of the issues the company needs to address is where to apply future research and technology spending, Svensson concedes. With limited resources, Saab must decide whether to spread spending across a breadth of activity or focus more resources in fewer areas. The latter course could lead to some endeavors being curtailed or halted.

At the same time, the company is pursuing new business avenues. Services is an area of particular interest. One of those efforts includes a potential U.N.-funded fee-for-service unmanned aircraft initiative. It would offer its Skeldar 150 helicopter UAV for the mission. It also is exploring the establishment and administration of military camps overseas; this type of work has been undertaken by U.S. suppliers such as KBR and DynCorp but hasn’t been a hotbed of activity for European companies.

Svensson also believes that applying some of the network-centric system approaches devised for the military to civil security needs is a potential growth area.

If they’re not discussing real specs then its no good. You think that they’re at the conference to just talk of dummy data? what use is that ?

Maybe Iran is trying to gain confidence in the mid-mounted, twin canted tail, twin engine configuration by modifying some F-5s before attempting the much larger F-14/YF-17 derivative..

as someone mentioned earlier, that would potentially be a far more capable design, with the right engines and avionics..Russia may well supply radars and other avionics if Iran wants it to..

the Saudis paid $ 8.5 billion for 72 Typhoons and I’m not even sure how much ToT there was in that deal..going by that deal, the Typhoon, although very impressive and probably the most capable of all the MRCA candidates, is wayy too expensive..it’ll be difficult to convince the bean-counters at the MoD even if it stands out in the Technical evaluation. thats where a MiG-35 and a Gripen NG will be most competitive- one can be sure that the total bidding cost will be the lowest with these two as compared to the SH, Rafale or the Typhoon.

AW&ST in article mentioned that whereas the British were dismantling their Foreign Export office, the French were taking it much more seriously and have set up an office just to look at the exports of big-ticket items like the NH90, Tiger, Rafale, LeClerc, etc. If the Rafale sale to Morocco and Libya does’nt come through, it’ll only make them more desperate..I hope that makes a difference to the Dassault bid for the MRCA.

I cant help but point out that just this one purchase would push Rafale exports past any of the other MRCA candidates, so its incredibly lucrative. The Typhoon has a total of 87 export orders, the Gripen is at 56 and the SH could become 48 if Australia converts its options for 24 more. Consider that everyone anticipates that with licence production, the IAF would definitely purchase more of the MRCA type, this one deal could make the winner rake in moolah for a long time to come..

heck, for the Gripen, total MRCA numebrs could even exceed the parent AF numbers, and for the Rafale, they may almost match (234 Adl’A Rafales, not counting the French Navy). for the MiG-35 that does’nt even arise since the RuAF is not even looking at it..which makes me very queasy about it.

So, going by how much is at stake, I’d expect and I’d WANT any of these companies to bend over backwards to win this deal.

Rubik, thats a RAF Jaguar in the Arctic camo scheme.

Try to get my point guys !

When you buy a new fighter, you are looking for something that will be valid for 20 years or more.

As soon as USAF decided on the F-35, all developments on the F-16 were dead. So, even if the plane is good today, it will not get any better.

The block 60 is allso beside the point, as it cost to much, and hardly on offer to Morocco

I don’t agree with that point. As long as LM has a customer willing to pay for whatever it needs on the F-16, LM will go ahead and do it. the Blk.60 is UAE specific and even the USAF does’nt have it in its arsenal..and for the Indian MRCA competition, LM is offering something on the lines of a Sufa with Blk.60 level avionics.

BTW, the Mirage 2000 upgrade – if it is to Dash 5 Mk2 standards, and the MiG-29 upgrade if it is to full std MiG 29 MRCA standards, will make these aircraft, amongst the most sophisticated in Asia. The Mirage in particular will have key advantages over the PAF’s F-16 Block 50/2 in that it carries its comprehensive EW suite internally, and that it has a longer ranged radar. The JF-17 etc are of course not competitive in pure terms, but are still possible threats. The key advantage of the F-16 over the Mirage could be the AMRAAM, if its indeed longer ranged than the Mica.

but Nick, we still dont know whether the Mirages will be upgraded with Israeli avionics and Derby/Python weapons or the regular Mk.2 suite and MICA IR/ER.

already IAF Mirages carry the Popeye and Crystal Maze A2G weapons and are Litening LDP integrated, so integrating with Israeli weapons is not a big issue..