PortageeAs I said I don’t know the financial side of things, and I’m not trying to find fault in your argument, indeed I agree much of it makes sense.
All I’m doing is going back over the original post pointing out where the SNP would like to be and with what equipment, I’m trying to speculate as you are how best to get there.
So as March 2016 levels are based on initial negotiations, not complete ones. The Plus 5 year level would be more akin to proper starting point.
So the initial 12 Typhoons, At the 5 year mark 6 or 8 more Typhoons in lieu of 8% of Tonkas, E-3D, Rivet Joint thingies etc etc.. economies of scale having the same type, existing training, and infrastructure compared to bringing in a new type, training and infrastructure. How would that compare monetarily?
I’d also suggest that hard cash might be tight in the first 5 years so I’d much prefer to see that go on the MPAs something that Scotland can’t take 8% of, and will have to fully fund. Though I can see the economies of scale of a Joint order, training facility and possibly maintenance agreements as you suggest. As I say I’d personally like a few cargo versions as well – especially if there are no Scottish Chinooks.
If the RoUK wants to keep all of it’s HC4’s then I wouldn’t not averse to a initial “loan” of Pumas, with the RoUK part funding new build Merlins or perhaps the new AW 149 (after a review of options) in lieu, add in “value” the 8% of Chinooks and a reduced percentage for the Pumas, as they will be returned.
The Hercs are problematic, in that they have the shortest lifespan left, with the A400M’s first UK delivery ironically due in September of 2014. I personally would like the SDF to have a small number of A400M’s combined with the cargo C295 giving a versatile lift capacity. Also it would give the organic AAR if need be.
8% of the A400M current order of 22 aircraft would be 1.75 aircraft, decline the 8% of the Hercs (+/- a bit) to make up the remaining quarter giving 2 aircraft, with perhaps a joint funding of another 4 -6 aircraft (2 more of SDF – others to replace the Scottish ones from original order), the increase in order might bring unit costs down, The SDF would need to contribute partly to the Training base at Brize Norton.
Rather than ignore the rest of your post, I’ll once again comment that Naval Issues aren’t a strong point, so won’t try to argue or comment against what you have written
PortageeGoing back to the OP and what has been set out I like where it is going but I think I would make some changes that I think could see better long term sustainability and allow for deployment as seen fit
First the air force
Make Lossiemouth the main air-force base for Fighter – Transport- MPA install QRA sheds at each end of the main runway take 12 Typhoon’s from RAF stocks and base them in the south HAS site (617’s sheds)- lease 18 Gripen’s over 10 years (cost to the Czeck’s 780m Euros should be cheaper now but this works out at about £70m per year) base them in the North HAS site (12B’s sheds)- take 4 C-130’s and the 2 146 QC’s form RAF stocks and base them in 14 Sqn hangars – order 6 C-295 MPA’s of which the UK pays for two base them in 15 Sqn hangars – order 12 Merlin HC4’s of which the UK pays for 4 and base them on the north side of Kinloss also take 12 SeaKing HC4’s from UK stocks as a stop gap and base them in the same place – order 12 Lynx Wildcats HMA2’s of which the UK pays for 4 and take 6 lynx HMA8’s from Navy stocks and base them at a new site at Faslane naval base cost to the UK in year one £350 million for 4 Merlin 4 Wildcats 2 C-295MPA’s cost to Scotland in years 1-5 £225 million for 2 Merlin 2 wildcats 1 C-295 and the Gripen lease ( at £70m ) per year
I agree that Lossie should become the main Fixed Wing Station.
Had an Independent Scotland been working from a clean sheet of paper, then perhaps 3 or 4 squadrons of Gripens would make more sense than a couple Squadrons of Typhoons, but given it’s Typhoons Scotland would inherit, I don’t see the point of introducing another type either Logistically or training wise.
Lossie would also be the Transport Hub, Hercs/ I’d prefer 4 A400Ms as they become available would be the main lift, but as there are orders for the C295MPA, I’d Suggest 6 (2 on QRA, 2 at plus X minutes) and 2 Spare) but I’d also have 4 or 5 Cargo that could take palettised specialist kit if required. Prestwick is currently owned by the Scottish Government so I’d see HMS Gannet side enlarged to handle a QRA and a Plus X Minutes, alongside it’s SAR Helicopters, with the other QRA and Plus X Minutes at Lossie.
RM Condor at Arbroath could become a main Helicopter base, as I’ve mentioned before I’m fan of the Merlin so I’d get some of these from the RAF before they are all given over to the RN, Barry Buddon Ranges are only 8 miles away with Leuchars a further 8 miles away, so its not exactly out of the way. This could also host the Land and sea based Lynx Wildcats, with the latter possibly transiting via Prestwick to their ships as they leave Faslane.
Second the Navy
Faslane would become the SDF HQ and main Naval base. The navy should look to take on the 3 newly ordered (2013) 90m OPV’s from UK stocks and order 3 more to be built on the Clyde have the crane removed and a telescopic hangar fitted also have them fitted with 1 57mm naval gun and 2 25mm cannons – order 4 100m Corvettes ( Khareef Class) to be built on the Clyde of which 1 to be paid for by the UK have these fitted with the same gun and cannon for ease of logistics – transfer one of the Wave class tankers and 1 Bay class landing ship for force support- also transfer 4 Archer-class patrol boats cost to the UK in year one £300 million for 3 90m OPV and one 100m Corvette cost to Scotland in year 1-3 £170 million per year for 1 90m OPV and one 100m Corvette
I don’t know a great deal regarding shipping, but from what I’ve read, I don’t see a particular need within the SDF for a bay class, something without a well deck perhaps for humanitarian missions, but I have no knowledge of what type this would likely be.
Thirdly the Army
The 3 main army bases would be Leuchars – Kinloss and Edinburgh – all the army’s equipment would come from a split of UK assets
This would give Scotland by the end of year 5
30 Multi-role fast jets for QRA and able to deploy 6-8 overseas at anyone time
10 hulls for home waters defence able to deploy 2-3 on anti-drug/piracy duties or as seen fit
2 support ships able to deploy as needed
38 helicopters to support naval and troop needs
6 MPA’s for home waters defence & SAR
6 Transport aircraft to support deployments
Cost to the UK £650 million 12 Typhoons – 4 C-130J -2 146QC – 6 Lynx HMS8
Cost to Scotland in years 1-3 £395 million year 4 £225 million
I’m in no position to discuss the monetary side of things, but by Year 5 I’d like to hope that the SDF would be in a position to order on it’s own rather than having to order alongside the RoUK to keeps economies of scale in order, my example some cargo C295s to go along with joint MPA purchases.
PortageeI haven’t seen anything written, but given an SDF’s ADIZ would likely extend around the North coast of the Island of Ireland and out into the Atlantic, bordering both RoUK (NI) and ROI airspace, a tri-national agreement whether formal or informal would be implemented.
I do wonder though whether the RoUK would look to have a more Westerly oriented stance, this would possibly assist with any Irish solution.
PortageeBut you cannot separate politics from this debate. It is all about the politics. And as you said, earlier, the argument will be about whether or not the figures add up and that is based on assumptions made before any negotiations take place. If the yes vote carries there will be protracted negotiations on every aspect of the changed relationship after which many yes voters might come to regret their vote. Gradually the “idea” will become bitter reality.
If you read the opening line of the first post, I commented that the General section was the place for a purely political discussion. I have tried to keep these threads related to the military hence my comments about avoiding politics in this section.
Portagee
Stated much more eloquently than I could
PortageeThe above remark is my own suggestion as a possibility at around the 10 year mark, not something from the Yes Campaign White Paper.
I had a loose thought of a new specific maritime strike weapon that was perhaps proposed by BAe, that both the RAF and SDF would like and are working together to integrate funded by both RoUK and Scottish Governments. It need not be for Typhoons, just they were an obvious example.
PortageeMadRat – I’m going to leave the political discussion aside , not least because I think your way off the mark, and this isn’t the place for political discussions.
If the Scots blindly believe that they can rid themselves of nuclear weapons and remain a part of the NATO alliance it is wishful thinking.
Why is this wishful thinking? There is no reason what so ever that a Non-nuclear Scotland can’t or won’t be part of NATO. Once fully integrated there would be no difference from now other than it be Scottish Pilots in Scottish Marked Jets performing Northern Atlantic and North Sea QRA. It might actually get MPAs back patrolling sooner than the Current UK will.
The UK will never allow the Scots to simply walk away. Letting the Scots leave means leaving a vital flank vulnerable in the islands, threatening the very existence of the remainder of the UK.
The RoUK has no real say over whether Scotland walk away. The Westminster Government have already stated that they will not oppose the will of the people of Scotland. An Independent Scotland would become part of the integrated NATO Defensive Zone, taking over the mission that the RAF of the Current UK have for Northern QRA. As a member of NATO it would be have all the necessary back up on this “flank” that the Current RAF would receive from other NATO members if required.
The facts that the UK owns the sub base, not Scotland is plenty reason to assert itself to retain control.
An Independent Scotland as stated elsewhere are entitled to approx 8% of all UK assets and Debts, Scotland may take less than 8% of some things, ( Scotland doesn’t want 8% of 4 Nuclear submarines and their warheads) so would negotiate for perhaps 10% of other things. That’s across the whole Government not just Defence.
There are already a number of things that are taken as read… such as the hand over of Current UK Defence sites in Scotland to the Scottish Defence Force. Some might be run or operated jointly for a number of years either with the RoUK or other NATO countries.
So I’m afraid your assertion about Faslane is quite wrong.
PortageeJust 12 airframes ? Switzerland considers 30+ airframes necessary for airpolicing. And they don’t have a large EEZ to cover. Austria with 15 Typhoons has only a 9 to 5 QRA on workdays.
The 12 airframes mentioned essentially mean 12 aircraft painted in Scottish markings operated by Scottish and other RAF personnel working effectively exchange crews. There will probably still be 2 RAF Squadrons on site at Lossiemouth at that point.
The 5 year mark where the SNP say 16, and I humbly suggest 20, might still see a single RAF squadron rotate through Lossiemouth not as QRA, but in the guise of cross border training and interoperability.
By a ten year mark, an SDF would be truly established and integrated, where might be no RAF Units at Lossiemouth but the SDF might have a Flight of 2 aircraft at Coningsby participating in future weapons integration etc.
PortageeImprove it??!! They are not doing badly as they are!! And that’s the problem for the “yes” campaign – how do they convince voters that independence will be better for them? So far they are failing dismally. And the 50,000 pages of waffle hasn’t improved matters.
Again this is getting into the politics I was hoping to avoid, if you think Scotland is doing not so bad, then just think how much better it could be if able to set things like a corporation tax rate that doesn’t have to take the south East of England into consideration … How much more attractive to non-European companies looking to set up one expand their Euro business.
PortageeSalmond is on record (& I heard him say it) that the yes campaign will win because people will vote for a positive message. Unfortunately, the interviewer didn’t challenge him very strongly on that. I’d have asked him if he meant that he thought the electorate was stupid enough to vote for nice-sounding lies instead of hard truths. I think that is his strategy.
Yes, I heard the exact same thing, and I agree – it’s a moronic argument.
This is taking the thread close to the politics that I was hoping to avoid, but I must pick up on this point.
Whether it be retoric, BS or pure fantasy, the Yes campaign are the only ones putting forward positive statements “We’ll do this for Scotland, we’ll do that to improve Scotland” etc
All that’s heard from the No campaign is “that will never work”, or “they can’t afford it”, “what are they going to do once the oil and Gas runs out”.
The No campaign haven’t come up with a single positive suggestion to vote No, the best they can come up with is “stay in the UK because it’s best for the UK” which Yes campaigners spin as “the Rest of the UK needs to Keep the Oil and Gas money flowing through Westminster because all their future budgets are reliant on it.”
No one is actually challenging the No campaign on what they will do to improve Scotland’s position within the UK, the reason is simple of course. The No campaign is made up from 3 different parties that won’t actually get together put forward a positive agrument, because their Middle-England heartlands wouldn’t stand for it.
PortageeThe SNP have had the long standing anti-nuclear policy, but realises, that to enforce a totally nuclear free Scotland would make NATO membership nearly impossible. So by getting rid of the UKs Subs from Scotland, they can fulfil their long time promise, and then operate a “don’t ask don’t tell” policy to visiting ships.
PortageeThis is the crux of the whole independence argument, and something Salmond is refusing to address.
Scotland makes up around 8% of the population of the UK, so does that mean they would inherit 8% of the assets, 8% of the North Sea oil, 8% of the debt?
The more Salmond wants, the greater share of the UK debt he’s going to have to inherit.
Go and actually read the white paper that has bee published, it actually is all laid out, whether you think the sums add up is up to you but it’s there in black and white.
For every item that is bought and paid for by the tax payer, 8% (the number of Scottish tax payers) belongs to Scotland, Scotland doesn’t want or need 8% of everything that’s why there would be negotiations. The Oil and Gas lies predominantly within Scottish Waters as agreed by international convention, and this would be Scotland’s entitlement not just 8%.
There has been suggestions that as part of the so called Pound zone Scotland might actually take on more than 8% of the UK debit
I think that if the Scots go for independents the RAF will move the Typhoons into RAF Leeming and still operate a Northern QRA but I also think it would be a good move to have a flight of 6 RAF typhoons on detachment in Scotland to help bolster their early airforce
From the original post, Scotland would stand up a 12 aircraft QRA squadron by March of 2015, but my own view would be a more gradual change over with as mentioned Scottish and RAF Jets working together, certainly over the first few years, and then as a purely Scottish Northern QRA embedded in the already established NATO structure of handing off “Bears” as they pass by each countries Air Defence Zone.
I think another good question is where would the UK sub fleet operate from
The Current UK government are in that much denial about a YES vote winning (rightly or wrongly) that they seem to be making no early provision. The SNP want the Subs out by 2019 – the end of the first parliamentary term of an Independent Scotland. That really isn’t much time to quell any NIMBY’s that will undoubtedly spring up, public enquiries etc before building of Sub pens could even begin, never mind Nuclear war head storage areas.
PortageeMy own views are that in some areas it sounds about right, in other areas we could be over reaching for the initial agreement.
I’m not sure that a Scottish Defence Force could stand up and support 12 Typhoons, instead I think I’d be looking at perhaps Scottish Defence force Personnel in including pilots operating within the RAF QRA structure (just as foreign exchange pilots do) building up to joint QRA flights of Scottish Marked and RAF marked jets operating together phasing the RAF element out.
The TacAir element again I’m not sure we would need 6 Hercs initially, but I would say that there would be a very specific agreement that the hercs are replaced by A400Ms as they become available, though not necessarily on 1 for 1 basis.
I’m a fan of the Merlin, so I’d like to see that as Scotland’s support helicopter before they are all given away to the RN.
Not mentioned above but there is to be a Defence review by the first Independent Government during which the MPA would be specified … I’d like to see the current Scottish Government form an all party committee to specifically start the MPA requirement process during the 18 months prior to the Independence date. come up with a plan and suggest a joint buy with the Remainder of the UK.
The sooner the Current UK or Scotland/RoUK get these aircraft the better.
The Naval component I really don’t know enough to comment on, other than what I’ve read on these pages… if the OPV’s are the ones newly announced or the Scottish Defence Force is looking at future new builds, I believe the consensus is that it’s not the 90m that’s been mention but a 100m or 110m version.
Looking at the 5 years down the road points,
16 typhoons, pooled across 2 squadrons makes sense, it could be argued perhaps for up to 20.
I’d like the A400Ms that come on steam to have the full AAR capability in place, giving Scotland it’s own generic if perhaps limited AAR.
I’d like to see the first of the MPAs coming on stream soon, I’d probably select the C295, but I’d also as part of the order have perhaps 4 or 5 cargo haulers as well.
Naval wise, by the 5 year point I’d like to think that as the size grows, Scotland would be in a position to take part in joint task forces on piracy or drug interdiction where appropriate to do so.
PortageeIt’s strange seeing the island so far back, I’m sure we’ll get used to it.
PortageeLove the jaguar, Plus anything with JPS written down the side will always look good. Honourable mention for the Williams hawk.
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