The main reasons why WMD was not found in Iraq:

1) The UN had destroyed 90% of the program in the 1990s.

2) The regimes income had been massively reduced and funding was concentrated to keeping it in power and and in comfort.

3) This is links with point 2, whilst Saddam was still in power his actual exercising of that power had become very weak and sporadic he had really made the transition from Stalin to Hitler and the state had become fractured yet still held together with the common purpose of stying in power. The regime was probably at its weakest since 1991 (if not weaker) but this down to Saddam’s mentality and age rather than any other factor and would likely have been reversed had he have died and one of his sons taken over. Thus the will to recreate the WMD program at that stage was limited.

4) The utility of Iraqi WMD was now highly limited. Events in Iraq were now closely monitored and the country was surrounded by Western armed forces who would have certainly responded very severely to any internal security use of WMD. Even is a national defence weapon its utility was limited to non-existent for the simple reason that any use of it would result in massive retaliation- this lesson had been learned in 1991. Therefore there was very little doctrinal motivation for the renewal of WMD.

The Syrian theory is not inconceivable but it is highly unlikely. Iraq is unlikely to have had anything that Syria does not, and there is virtually no other evidence for there having been WMD in Iraq.

Frankly I always found the whole WMD argument as an excuse for war rather pathetic anyway, North Korea, India, Pakistan, and Israel all have real (ie strategic rather than tactical capability) WMD programs of far greater complexity than Iraq and equally questionable legality. Before any of the Indians get upset I regard the whole idea of legalising who can have what weapons as completely absurd too.

Australia is flying. This is perfect example of what Britain should be doing. Deciding what your defense needs and wants are and working to them.

The number of available airframes is small, even with MRA4 numbers having been slashed. I’ve heard (but can’t confirm – pure hearsay) that examination of the stored airframes has found it would be difficult to find enough airframes with requisite parts sound enough to re-use even for the original MRA4 requirement, & that means just 9 more than now planned. If true, then it would be necessary to make new Nimrod fuselages from scratch. However, that would not be an insuperable problem. They’re already making most of the airframe new. But we’re talking small batch production, hence expensive. Luckily, the additional development cost would be minor, compared to what’s already been spent, & any new-build fuselages wouldn’t suffer from the sloppy tolerances which have caused such difficulties matching up old Nimrod bodies with new, precisely machined by computer, parts. It’s probably the cheapest option, overall.

Just to add to that excellent post, a fews years ago BAe did a study into making new Nimrod fuselages, IIRC it was related the US requirement for a new maritime patrol aircraft (now the P-8). They have already built new wings and studied new fuselages so it all sounds rather feasible and probably not overly expensive, in fact if you chopped out a lot of the Maritime gear you could probably save a fair amount of cash. You would not even have to integrate that many weapons, Storm Shadow for long range stand-off ability and some PGM’s for places like Afghanistan.

There is a significant difference between saying the Iraqis “need” iron fist control and saying the Iraqis “expected” an iron fist to clamp down after the M1A2s rumbled through their towns. Their expectation was based on a generation of Iraqis living under Saddam’s rule. Americans don’t have a policy of “clamping down” but the White House’s fuzzy bunny and lollipop expectations that Iraqis could be left to their own devices after stripping away all government control was unrealistic.

They certainly did not expect an iron fist, they expected rational competent government.

OKAY OKAY OKAY.. For some peculiar reason you seem to be persuaded about being able to see much deeper inside a head of a common AQ guy than I am. Maybe you have interviewed some of them, I don’t know, I personally haven’t but let us start from the very roots.

Israel is not an issue, you say. Well, that is a real surprise but okay, I will try to be open-minded and take your words for granted. What is the main issue then? What is the idea that provides a moving force in recruiting new members? Now I certainly hope you won’t try it from the because-they-hate-freedom side. 😉

No idea which ‘facts’ should have proven me wrong, at least you haven’t provided any. Here is something from my sources:

B.Russel’s Tribunal Dossier – Introduction to the Salvador option and Iraqwi death squads.. (part 2, page 3)

But some important points worth mentioning here: that the first Iraqi interim government was (elected) in January 2005 and was heavily Shiite (Jafari government), that around that time the talk of the Salvador option in Iraq was being heard (4), and that the police commandos were formed, mainly of Shiite militias, especially Badr (the armed branch of the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq) and the Mahdi Army (the Sadr Movement militia).
But does all this mean that the death squads are Shiite militias within the interior ministry forces?
The answer is: NO, not exactly. I know that any Iraqi who has seen a death squads’ operation (which is becoming a familiar day light phenomenon) would want to shoot me in the head for this answer; because a convoy of heavily armed men, masked, black-suited, in expensive modern cars and pick ups, calling Sunnis the worst of names, shooting in the air, calling for revenge, attacking individuals, shops, kidnapping people, beating them to death or shoving them in cars trunks, would not look like anything other than a sectarian militia. But this is only part of the story.
Throughout 2005, thousands of young Sunni men were arrested (officially) by the Iraqi police commandos (a major arrests operation in Baghdad was in May 2005, given the name of “Lightning”, when hundreds were arrested). Weeks later, some of their bodies were found in different places of Baghdad, or Iraq, mainly to the east. The names of the Wolf Brigades, the Ra’ad (Thunder), the Nimr (Tiger), the Karrar (Imam Ali), the Imam Hussien, the Scorpion; Al-Borkan (volcano)…became familiar names of police commandos brigades (Maghaweer). They are supposed to be counterinsurgency, intelligence based troops. They were created, trained, armed, and directed by the American intelligence officers who are well known for serving in central and South America where death squads were a major part of the political scene (5).


End of quote. If you care to know more (even if I doubt it), you can read numerous wittness reports about killer squads hunting down ex-IrAF pilots being armed with Colt M4s or AR-15s and Glock 9mm pistols plus Motorola MilSpec data comms.. Not exactly the type of equipment AQ would be able to supply their units with, don’t you think?

AQ seems to be an universal excuse tool for anything but I still say they did not have to move a finger in starting ethnic cleansing and sectarian violence. You took care of that part…

No reason to disagree here, these are well-known facts.

I never said all Arabs need that. But Iraqis surely do. Or even better, they need a complete separation of their main three ethnic/religious goups.

I never said that Israel was not an issue now you are putting words in my mouth it is just not the focus that you make it out to be, indeed Israel is a difficult subject for AQ, thats why you get endless rants a bout zionists (often used to cover far more than just jews) but AQ themselves rarely mention the Palestinians. There is not really a focus at all, the subjects covered range from western presence in the ME through to how all westerners and non-muslims are evil infidels (they tolerate women, homosexuals etc) and thus need to be exterminated or converted blah blah blah.

AQ is perfectly capable of getting hold of such equipment, the Iraqi security forces leak such stuff on an epic scale, it is certainly not uncommon to find insurgents equipped with what you mention. 2005 did see some non- AQ death squads (every society has its extremists) but nothing to the post February 2006 scale, prior to that the sectarian issue was very limited but it took the AQ bombing of the golden mosque to set of the bloodletting that finally and belatedly forced some competence from the US. Iraq was not a ‘time bomb waiting to explode’ and the idea and it is racist to say that Iraqis need an iron fist to control them note that the surge does not enforce an iron fist, again I refer you to the current US Army COIN manual. What happened in Iraq is a classic example of what happens when a state collapses and not an example of some kind of racial or cultural inferiority like you seem to think it is, ask yourself this, how many churches do you think you would have to bomb to start a war between evangelicals and mormons in the US? Then add a political and security vacuum as well as economic melt down to the scenario and what do you think you would get?

A good source that provides a nice concise overview of the AQ/Zaqawi sectarian war strategy: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3483089.stm

Several years ago MBDA looked at the possible use of converted civil aircraft as non-penetrating cruise missile carriers, but concluded that the installation of weapons bays into the airframe of an airliner involves such drastic airframe ‘surgery’ that it’s essentially unaffordable.

Which brings us back to the Nimrod, now the MRA-4 plans have been slashed there must be some spare airframes available, already has a bomb bay and commonality with the MRA-4?