Are the Czechs paying for these birds or are they repayment for Soviet era debt?

I’d say “No, gosh darnit!!”

Let’s look at the exisitng fighter market.

Sub-Saharan Africa – no market whatsoever – most of these countries are either scrapping their airforces, or are acquiring cheap(er) second hand Soviet fighters such as the Fulcrum or Flanker.

North Africa – Morrocco, Tunisia and Egypt will most likely continue to acquire Western aircraft (French and US respectively). Egypt’s purcahses are generally realiant on US aid programs. Algeria is acquiring new MiG-29’s. Libya is an unknown quantity.

Middle East – OK, so you have UAE as a potential T-50 buyer, but that’s about it. Nearly everybody else is going F-16 or M2K. Iran is focusing on independent projects and is acquiring some Russian hardware.

Indian Subcontinent – Pak/India definite, but they don’t count as they’re sponsoring/developing JF-17/ LCA.

Asia – South Korea for T/A-50. Thailand is also a potential T/A-50 user, especially if the US can chip in some funds. Mynamar and Bangladesh are potential JF-17 users. Everyone else either requires more sophisticated aircraft (e.g. Singapore/Malaysia/Taiwan etc) or can’t even afford kites let alone jet fighters (e.g. The Philipinnes, Cambodia or Laos).

South America – no real potential here either. Argentina, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia cannot afford new fighters. Brazil looks to acquire second hand jets to replace Mirages, while Mexico will probably buy ex.U.S.

Europe – already 2 Gripen users – Hungary and Czech Republic. Most Western NATO countries from Belgium through to Greece and Turkey will proably acquire Eurofighter or JSF. Most eastern ones such as Bulgaria, Romania or the Slovak Republic will acquire U.S. or the Gripen if they’re willing to p*ss the Yanks off – so there is a market here. Croatia will scrap its fast jet element when they join NATO. Serbia is in no position to buy expensive aircraft and Albania is in the same boat.

I know this analysis is simplistic, but most of it is true to a degree. The LCA/FC-1/A-50 will probably only be used by their producers. The only one with a chance in hell of getting further export orders is the Gripen which has already been selected by 3 export users.

I think it is clear that smaller airforces are declining – not just “third world” ones.

For example, many Eastern European airforces are in a significant state of decline even if their economies are expanding. For example Hungary only has a handful of MiG-29’s available to defend its airspace. The Czech Republic has some obsolete MiG-21’s and the L-159, which is still a glorified jet trainer. Bulgaria’s airforce is down to a few operational MiG-21’s and some Su-25’s (don’t know the status of the MiG-29 following the overhaul debacle with MiG).

Even Western European airforces such as that of Belgium or the Netherlands are in free fall.

I think that we are reaching the level of defence that many countries had in the 1920’s and 1930’s -that is the maintennance of token defence forces and some vague idea of “perpetual peace.”

I’m not saying that we are gonig to see the emergence of another Hitler anytime soon, but we are in a state of global transition and the future is uncertain.

We are seeing the rise of China and India as two new economic powers with rising military capabilities. What the future strategic motivations of these two is also unclear – they are keeping quiet while they develop thier capabilities.

It is also clear that Western relations with the Arab world are increasingly uneasy and that there is growing fundamentalism in both Islam and the United States (radical Christianity).

Africa is still a bloody mess, and will continue to be for a long time to come.

And there is still the question of Russia, who despite becoming economically and militarily weak, is still full of delusions of grandeur.

Arguably airforces (and militaries in general) should be growing as the situation is now less predictable and more unstable that it was in the Cold War when the nuclear deterrent kept the superpowers from getting too cocky.

BUMP!

I agree -all these polls are irritating. One or two polls is OK, but the amount going on is ridiculous.

Didn’t the Mexican AF (as well as civilians on the ground) film a “squadron” of UFO’s over Mexico City a few years back?

What about G.I. Joes? They rcoked as much as Transformers!

Yo Joe!!!

Is there a single US military program running on budget?

After RAH-66, V-22, F-22 and now ABL, shouldn’t they be looking at reforming their tendering program?

Also given that none of the above entries have entered operational service (the RAH-66 being cancelled :P) despite years, if not decades, of development, should the U.S. change its emphasis on super high tech weapons to medium tech weapons that are easier to develop and enter into service.

The F-22 or V-22, for example, may offer incredible capabilities, but as they are not in ooperational service, wouldn’t it have been better to have acquired less high tech, yet still capable systems?

Because of these high tech programs still being in the development phase, old tech junk such as the CH-46 still continues in service with the Marines, while UH-1’s and OH-58’s still equip army units.

The AF is in a better condition with even Guard units being equipped F-16’s and F-15’s, but with operational tempos at a high rate since the late 1990’s (Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq), airframe life cycles are being used up quicker than in peaceful conditions.

My point is should the U.S. look at gradually improving its capabilities and focus on medium tech equipment being progressively improved, or should it continue to focus on high tech programs with long development timeframes?

The problem with the Euro jets is that a lot of the market for high tech fighters has dried up.

The Middle East was a huge importer of Western aircraft from the 1960’s onwards, be it Lightnings, Hunters or Mirages.

But many of these have become tied to the USA (e.g Kuwait, Saudi Arabia) while others such as Libya and Iraq no longer have the funding for such equipment.

Furthermore Western aircraft are too complicated and too expensive to be operated by many third world operators.

Asian nations are acquiring Russian, US or indigenous hardware, and Asia has never been a large market for European fighters.

Finally many airforces in Europe are reducing or even scrapping their fast jet fleets. Belgium will in the future only have about 60 fighters, Germany only 260 (if they’re lucky), while Eastern European airforces have virtually disappeared as large importers of aircraft.

Realistically the bulk of the world needs fighters in the catagory of the FC-1 or JF-17, not expensive Eurocanards.