I know. But those were just examples from my memory, there surely are more.. F-18 of Kuwait, Finland, Switzerland and Australia, Jordanian F-16s Taiwanese Mirage 2000-5s, Austrian Typhoons etc. etc.
Kuwait already operated A-4 Skyhawks alongside Mirage F1’s
Finland had a 50-50 split of Western and Russian in order to show that it was neutral. As soon as they didn’t have to suck up to the Russians, they got rid of their MiG-21’s So a poltical choice.
Switzerland acquired more F-5E/F’s than it ever did Mirage III’s. Besides they purchase on the open market.
Australia also purchases on the open Western market (as long as it is Western).
Jordan has operated F-5’s for a long time and before that F-104’s. Their F-16’s are 2nd hand models and generally financed through FMS.
Taiwan’s purchase of M2000-5’s was interesting to say the least but it was basically because it could not get clearance for more advanced US built fighters (or so I remember).
Austria – open market?
Anyhow here is my analysis of the potential market for the Rafale.
South America – 0 sales prospects other than maybe some 2nd hand aircraft 50 years into the future. The Rafale is too expensive for most South American air arms. I think that even Brazil will opt for more 2nd hand M2000’s as they become available over the Rafale.
North America – 0 sales prospect for obvious reasons.
Europe – other than France, zero sales prospects. The only way the French are going to get any orders is if the JSF program is a total and utter failure.
Subsaharan Africa – No sales prospects for obvious reasons.
Middle East including North Africa – Even here things are looking grim. Saudi has chosen the Eurofighter, UAE the F-16E/F and M2000-9. Jordan can’t afford the Rafale. Bahrain and Kuwait are totally aligned with the USA. Qatar seems to want to get rid of its M2000’s but there is no talk of replacements. Egypt’s military is subsidised by the US and I think if it does acquire non-US fighters, they will be Chinese JF-17 paid out of their own wallet. Algeria is acquiring advanced Su-30/MiG-29’s. Tunisia is poor as is Morocco. Morocco is only a potential customer if someone else pays for them. Syria buys Russians and Iran is a no-no. Israel buys almost exclusively US and I don’t think they would want to risk another French embargo on parts etc.
So in my enlightenend opinion the only potential customers in this region are:
Libya (if they don’t go Russian but Gaddafi is an unpredictable git)
Morocco (if someone else pays for them)
South Asia – none. I think that India will acquire an upgraded MiG-29 for its 126 aircraft requirement. It makes sense as the type is already in service with the existing aircraft due for an upgrade and the new navalised aircraft due to enter service.
South East Asia – none. These countries are either too poor, are US alligned or are buying cheaper Russian.
North East Asia – none. Again these countries are either US alligned or are Communist or produce their own aircraft!
Australia – no sales prospects. Australia is firmly committed to the JSF.
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