banduaThey will probably have to reshape into something very different than what they used to be. They were already struggling but in the last few years, they just lost their main partner and client. Plus Its new alignment forces them to compete against C17, A400, EMB390, Hercules, c295, while access to other than Russ Antonov’s traditional market can also be affected but new rules. Still, they might find their place in all this mess but they may also not find it or not find it soon enough.
banduaI honestly think it is a really open context.
SH provides continuity with the F18s that they already have at a really competitive price.
Eurofighter is probably the best performance wise particularly focusing on QRA, and an aircraft present in several neighbors (Germany, Italy, Austria).
Rafale won the previous context when regarding technical aspects.
F35 is the new western standard.
Gripen E won the previous context and keeps offering all the needed aspects at a reasonable price. plus an extra in the ease of use which is really convenient in this case.
banduaHonestly, don’t see the Spanish Navy acquiring second-hand Harriers. If, it was going to buy second-hand aircraft. Then just get second hand F-35B’s from the USMC. Which, is a likely option in my opinion…
I guess they will keep harrier for as long as possible / until some definitive solutions come out. The problem I see both for used Harriers and F35Bs is that there’s no actual surplus of any of them. the USMC is keeping harriers far longer than expected because F35B is coming late and maybe even short of expected flight hours due to structural issues. Is not that the Spanish Harriers flight much anyway but I honestly fail to see any excess fighter of either of the aircraft in the short/medium-term
banduaUrcelay told, Navy+EdA did a common study for to buy F-35 together, and they present it to ministery of defence. We dont know if will be a study the all F-35B, maybe 12-14 for Navy and around 30 for EdA, or 12-14 f-35B for Navy and 30 F-35 A for EdA. But this study was presented few time ago. And there are contacts, USA make confirmation about it few days ago.
If you read me well, i did not tell Spain will buy F-35 A surely, i told that maybe will buy F-35A or not. But sure, F-35B will be bought for Navy.
I know some person which have contacts inside, and he told that idea was to buy now 30-40 EF tranche 3 ( for replace the most older F-18´s). And on 2025-2030 to buy F-35b for navy and around 30 F-35A for replace the last F-18´s on the EdA. But of course, this idea can change on future.
My understanding is that the joint F35B procurement idea is a 2017 idea, the most recent update is that the EdA (SpAF) has required 40 eurofighter to replace 80 F18s and this news came after Spain joining FCAS. There’s been a lot of rumors, but as I say, the most recent updates are from the JEMA (chief of staff of the air force) itself going public (Feb 6th, 2019) about having requested 40 Eurofighters for substituting F18s. It is also very likely that this might imply the substitution of all F18s since despite the EdA keeps asking for 130-140 fighters many informed people agree that a reduction in number is likely. Nobody closes the doors to F35, but whereas more Eurofighters and FCAS are being discussed, F35 is not.
And the Navy hasn’t gone further than pointing that the F35B is the only foreseeable substitute for the Harriers IF capabilities are to be maintained BUT when asking whether they will come, most common answers are in the line of “there are other priorities as of now”, “we have to study the possibilities” and the higher you go on the ranks the less the commitment you find towards F35B.
Regarding Germany, I don’t think that anybody was considering Tornado replacements until very recently not long ago they were talking about retaining them until 2030 or even beyond (Whereas UK for example has since long stated that Tornados would be out by 2020) for this reason my interpretation is always been that Tornado substitution interest is more likely related with keeping open the German Eurofighter FAL than with the actual need for urgent substitution of their Tornado fleet, in any case, more Eurofighters has been always the most likely outcome for a substitute. Budgets + Industry + Politics are key elements in any defense purchase. When you are producing/can produce an aircraft yourself you almost never pick a foreign one for the same role.
banduaAlso, speaking of the F-35’s. Maybe the US could offer a mix of New and Used F-35’s to aid Spain with the cost. For most of the F-35’s needed are for the Spanish Air Force. These could be new F-35A’s as the price keeps dropping nicely. Yet, instead of new F-35B’s. Which, are much more expensive. Maybe the Spanish Navy could acquire a small number of rebuilt F-35B’s from the USMC. Especially, considering the Navy only needs a very small number!
Just a thought…
A very interesting thought regarding F35B that it is being already considered in spanish defence forums, I do think that the option for the F35Bs wil require strong USMC collaboration, which maybe is not that complicated considering that Rota is an important base for the USN as wll. But this kind of agreement cannot take for granted anyway.
Regarding the F35A, I don’t think is mandatory for Spain, close threats for Sapin aren’t that real or capable and NATO needs well, first I don’t think that NATO is that menaced nor is menaced by huge highly sofisticated aircrafts fleets, neither can we certain as of yet of to what extent will F35 be a game changer. Now if F35A acquisition and maintainment prices get to nice figures and F35s come to be a good solution to actual threats I think that around 36 F35A could be a really sensible choice for Spain around 2030 when the platform is both mature and cheaper. In any case, I think that the best thing to do as of now is enhance Typhoon capabilities and numbers and of course keep an eye on F35s first to collaborate with NATO F35 fleets but also to evaluate what it could suppose for the SpAF.
banduaWell… A plausible way is to try to get some of the upgraded Harriers US Navy is going to have…
That’s something very likely as of now, but it will depend on whether those might still be able to fly once the Marines retire them.
banduaIf you read what Admiral Urcelay told, is that F-35B is out of discussion. It can have more debate about F-35A but not about F-35B coming to Spain on next future. And it is logical, we have islands and it is necesary anfibious force with naval fighters.
I don’t understand it that way, I think that it is pretty clear that he says F35B is the “only option if” we want to maintain the projection capabilities, and of course he is making a strong case for the F35s but first is not true that these projection capabilities depend that much on the F35B since as of now the real issue for not using them are foreign policies, budgets and logistics. None of these are likely to change in the foreseeable future. Now if we consider future acquisitions for the Spanish armed forces, the F35Bs suppose probably the most fancy one, but nor is mandatory to substitute them to maintain regular current operations nor do we have strong industrial interest linked to that, so its basically give away some 2 billion Euro, to substitute AV8Bs that in their whole operational life were never deployed somewhere were the air force cannot reach. From my point of view F35A for the air force makes much more sense, even when not mandatory either.
And other thing…EF is expensive than F-35A. So, When you tell, that Spain can not buy F-35A because is expensive it does not have any sense to buy more expensive EF tranche 3. This is not logical and this is a political decition anyway.
The reason forget more EF, also political is because need get fast deliveries for to replace older F-18, and it is not possible buying now F-35A.[/QUOTE]
Well, I am not talking that much on what I believe is better but on what it is actually happening, as I say EFT+ FCAS is happening F35 is not. In any case, once you have logistics, and produce yourself the eurofighters I don’t think the F35 can be any cheaper, I don’t even think that the unitary price itself is cheaper for the F35A but that’s a different issue, it could be well the other way around
About what is talking Urcelay is about to buy F-35A around the middle of next century when the last F-18 will need replacement, not now. You are talking about diferente things.
The thing is that Urcelay is navy, so he hasn’t much to say on F-18 substitutes, those responsible for the F-18 substitution have already required 40 more eurofighters and have clearly stated that even when they would like to get F35A they understand that Eurofighter is the best option for Spain now, of course it includes budgetary, political and industrial considerations.
Will Spain get F35s? maybe, of course, it is an interesting platform with some unique capabilities but as we all know there are many things to be considered but in any case, I don’t see F35s coming in the 2020s maybe around 2030s depending on budgets, FCAS development and other political and strategic considerations.
To say that Spain will get that quantity of F35A and that other of F35B is not accurate as even when is true that there’s interest both in the navy and the air force, it’s also true that as of now there are no budgets allocated for F35s and that the air force even requested eurofighters whereas the fixed-wing capability of the navy is both expensive, underused and very questionable from a doctrinal point of view. I would gladly see those F35Bs but I do think that there are plenty of needs ahead of them and I think that those taking the decisions do think the same.
banduaSo, the Spanish Navy is going to get out of operating Fixed Wing Aircraft from the Juan Carlos I /BPE??? News to me…..:eek:
For sure in the Navy they want to keep it but, going for around 10 F35B regarding the use spain is doing of its current wing, the shrinking budgets, logistics considerations plus the fact that the air force seems to be clearly on the more EFT + FCAS route… I honestly think that for the Navy F35B it is imposible on their own, so they would try to extend AV8Bs for as much as possible while considering alternatives, but as of now I think that the possibility of not getting F35B after the Harriers is well above 50%, not sure what other alternatives can be considered as of now they keep saying F35 is the only options but it wouldn’t be the first time that a capability is simply axed due to budgetary issues.
banduaI have been looking for updates on the AESA retrofit for the current RAFALE fleet but couldn’t get to any source, nor find much information.
Is any of the (French) Rafale experts aware of any such links. I understand that current numbers for RAFALE in French service are 143 operational/delivered + 28 scheduled for delivery of which the last 60 were to be delivered with AESA, so that as of today France has 23 to 32 equipped with AESA with 28 coming until 2023 already signed and 30 more expected to come by 2030.
Is that correct? As I say I couldn’t find links on broader upgrades. Thnks in advance.
banduaAdmiral Urcelay, from few days ago.
https://www.infodefensa.com/es/2019/…r-harrier.html
They are working for get F-35B for Armada and in cooperation with Air force F-35 A.
But F-35B is out of question. It will come 12-15 units for Navy. It does not matter if finally dont come F-35 A for air force. Very clear what he told.
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On this year will come new contract for 20-30 EF´s for to replace most old F-18 (after elections surely) because are most fast delivery than F-35, and later (2025-2030) it is possible will come some contract for F-35A for to replace rest of the F-18´s. But F-35 B (12-15 units) for navy will come without any doubt.
New european fighter will come around 2035 for to replace most old EF´s in spanish air force.
I was well aware of Urcelays comments at the moment of making mine. Only I don’t see who in the Spanish government will authorize the bill for the F35B plus I don’t consider this embarked wing as a particularly interesting capability when considering Spanish logistics, budgets, international policies and approach to conflicts. Now, in here (https://publicaciones.defensa.gob.es/revista-espanola-de-defensa-359-revistas-pdf.html) you can download the Spanish defense magazine and when taking a look to page 44 where FCAS is considered, the information there is that 40 Eurofighter have been requested by the air force to substitute 80 F18s until FCAS arrives, no mention whatsoever to the F35. Plus in a recent comment in this regard what was stated was that F35 is the reference but that Eurofighter is the best option for Spain being that the reason why the Air Force has requested more Eurofighter. Which basically means”we would like to have F35 but for us (air force) the Eurofighter covers the needs plus we understand industrial considerations”
Not that I believe that F35 doors are completely closed in Spain, nor that I wouldn’t welcome a wing of F35A for the air force, but with current policies and budgets I think it is very unlikely to get them in the foreseeable future. FCAS and 40 more Eurofighter, however, are over the table as of now. Ones is the long term bet, the other the short term for substituting F18s and maintaining Spanish Eurofighter FAL open.
banduaNot really. Rafale was France, Eurofighter UK, Germany, Italy & Spain. So far, the split on the new proposals looks like the UK, Italy & Sweden with Tempest, & France, Germany & Spain with the rival. Completely different split.
the thing is that at this stage, purely political predefinition of the projects, we had all of them together 40 years ago. and the relevant part is that it looks that we will have again two competing models, which is being shown as a complete failure to have a strong European contender in most countries. several European proposals mean American purchases. I think that Airbus is acknowledging this while trying to get the UK in while Dassault has enough sharing with Germany. Politically France and Germany are trying to close ranks but by doing so they are excluding not only the UK which is not that strange in the context of Brexit but also Italy which I think is a mistake. France and Germany really need to integrate the European industry in common projects if they want to be able to compete. What they are trying to do is pretty obscene as the Italians have pointed out.
I honestly don’t think France and particularly Dassault is ready for this kind of international collaboration where huge industrial shares have to be allocated to different countries and nothing in their rhetoric suggests that they think in any other thing but making their partners pay and buy for a rafale 5.5. For now Airbus seems to be trying to create bridges with BAE despite the brexit while from france they seem no to want anybody in until the thing is done. I think airbus knows that once the thing is done nobody will want to get in. But anyway it is to early to know how this might look like in a few years from now.
banduaThat sound like Rafale and Eurofighter all over again
It does.
banduaNot a bad out come! What??? So, Spain should maintain a fleet of obsolete fighters for another 20+ years. Until the NGF is available!
Also, the Spanish Navy is very influential. So, I wouldn’t rule out getting at least a modest number of F-35B’s for the Juan Carlos.
Spain has huge budget constraints, and lets face it, we simply don’t use this capabilities, neither do have the political will, or the economic and logistic capability to operate these LHD+F35B in any likely scenario where F35s might be required. The navy certainly has expresed its will for the acquisition of the F35s but there are several aspects that in my opinion make this purchase a bad business:
– Budgets
– Lack of active foreign military policies
– Lack of budget to support even a small carrier group overseas (that is, not so close to our coast that the SpAF couldn’t actually do the job)
– Lack of logistics to support that carrier group.
– Lack of industrial benefits of such a purchase (for anyone familiar with spanish un employment rates and the quality of the employment in the country that is a clear factor)
– Need to allocate budget to many other areas not only in the armed forces but in the armada itself
We had the Principe de Asturias an their harriers roughtly 30 years docked in Rota and that’s probably what we will get out of the JCI + F35B.
I sincerely believe that for similar investment an evolved and additional batch of S80 submarines to consolidate our currently pitifull submarine capabilities would provide a much better service for the Navy while helping to consolidate Navantia’s submarine building capabilities.
It would be nice to have them but it’s simply absurd in our situation and I hope that this will be acknowledged when taking the decission. However the chief of the dirección general de armamento y material (basically the person in charge of managing military acquisitions) might have a different view since it comes from the navy and has no problems in possing with a F35B reproduction in spanish colors over his desk (https://www.infodefensa.com/es/2019/03/04/noticia-almte-gonzalez-digam-avion-entrenador-buque-subacuatico-interrogadores-ahora-prioridades.html).
bandua2025?
This particular competition seems like a foregone conclusion, unless something spetacularly strange happens, its an F-35A win.
With Russia right next to its door, a decently sized budget, no indigenous product and no particular political problem with any of the five contestants, the Fins are (almost certainly) going to acquire the most advanced option, and with their timeline, any teething problems with “Dave” will be long gone.
Finland used to balance very well its purchases to not enrage the USSR, I wouldn’t discard that despite the fact that they just started dropping bombs again a few years ago, in the end, they prefer a less “menacing” platform. F35 its the favorite but if they return to old policies and choose a platform that might be perceived as less threating from the Russian perspective I think the 4.5+ platforms might have a chance as well, even more if budgets have a say.
banduaMost likely outcome: no fighters for the spanish navy after AV8B. Not a bad outcome from my point of view. I expect more Eurofighters which makes sense considering logistics and industrial considerations. After that, we will probably try to get into the FCAS, unless the conditions for joining them are far too bad in which case me might consider a mature F35 or even a possible British alternative. As usual budget constraints will have a say in the whole business.
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