There’s also de political issue, Turkish missiles would allow them to opperate more independently regarding NATO-Russia agreements. Nor so suere we would see it but makes sense from their perspective.

Argentina is to far away from any serious defense investment. Before thinking on them stoping f35 (or typhoon) we need first to step in an alternate universe. Once we are there, i’ll bet for a good combination of Russian doctrine in the form of kilo (+ club) vs RN and Mount Pleasant, s300 or S400 (the best they can get) and some flankers (with Brahmos when possible). However, current political wave and traditional military view won’t go Russian (or chinese), so it’s safe to say F35, typhoon or any other western platform more or less updated will remain uncontested for a long period.
Some aircraft options considered for acquisition for the AAF include 2nd an 3rd tier western aircrafts (ie Kfir, F1, F5…), even platforms like Mirage2000, F16 and f18 seem not to be contemplated as of now due to economic and political restrains. There’s some interest in Brazilian Gripen but no commitment.
Once back in this universe, a good question could be “How can Argentina stop a Terrorist A300 or a smugglers Cessna?”

Some reports suggest that russian retreat could be linked with discrepancies with Iran on Assad’s future (being the Iranian’s deicided to keep him at all cost). According to this, the Russians would keep only what they need to defend their own bases, thus largely dissengaging from the actual ongoing war. Iran is apparently expected to step in. I think as of now it’s almost imposible to make any predictions. Hope things cold down and the regime, kurds and moderates find a way to get along and get ride of all that radical islamic scum. Doesn’t seem easy though.

Dassault quite surprisely underbid EADS a few years ago, being extremely suspicious one could think that it was just an strategy to get a direct competitor out of India and try to get some momentum for other exports that they have on the table at the time: Brazil, UAE, Switzerland… On the other hand, a couple of years ago, the french senate previsions for the entire Rafale program included expending 45 billion € for around 300 aircraft, this is being reduced to 180 (but contemplates a future batch of 50 aircraft), taking the rather conservative price of 45 billion/300 aricrafts, the plane should have a unit price of around 150 million, now if we considerate the ToT expected plus production guaranties etc…I wouldn’t expect that the Rafale for India could get much cheaper than those 150 million € per aircraft. That amounts for 19 € Billion, 22 USD Billion, 1360 Indian Rupee Billion (136 Billion Krore, hope I didn´t slip much with the numbers) that’s 3 times the original budget of around 42 Billion Krore. Even when Dassault and France deicide to go much lower practically killing any benefit (let’s say 100 million €/unit) the whole business keeps being rather expensive for India. Now, if you follow currency exchange rates, the Russian Ruble is a much cheaper option nowadays, this should put the russian in some advantage even when the business might be agreed in USD, as most international transfers. In the actual context European stuff is very expensive for India whereas sticking to Russia keeps being a good option even when they don’t get the ToT they wished for. Of course the fact that India already produces Su30 is yet another favouring factor.

In general, economies in southamerica are growing quite fast, however it seems that the different states on the region are quite stable at the moment, and this would probably make the countries keep with their low spending in high tech equipment.
Chile is probably the best prepared in the region and i don´t think they will go for any big purchase before 2020, if there’s a country likely to be acquiring typhoons in the region chile is the main candidate, other options for the far future are F35 and SH.
Argentina is in desperate need to renew their interceptors fleet but after their adventures in 1982 it isn´t very likely that they get what they want (even less likely considering their debt issues) and a shift towards Russian or Chinese materials looks still complicated as of now, however taking in consideration their whole situation, Chinese stuff (J17 and/or J10) looks like their best option. They can also try some Israeli refurbishment of older aircrafts (f16) or something like that.
Brazil is in the middle of their FX2 thing, It is possible that they end up acquiring one of the current three candidates (for several reasons i think that grippen is their overall better option) but nobody would be surprised at all if they get a second hand aircraft again and initiate the FX3 program. As gap options Grippen A and M2000 look like the most likely candidates.
Venezuela is currently operating the most capable aircrafts on the region, I think for them it is more important to invest in improving their doctrine than in new fighters, I don´t think they need a substitute for the F16 since the recent acquisition of Su30s is a clear step forward. However mig29/35, j10 and j17 could complement them in the future. I think any of those would have been a better option (over the su30s) regarding costs and operativity/maintenance. However if the air force is absorving the Su30s with certain ease, increasing the Flanker family with more Su30s, Su35s and/or even Su34 could be another option. I am quite sceptic on this, however Su35s have been mentioned several times as a future option for Venezuela.
Colombia Military expenditures are mostly focused in facing the FARCs, however i think we can expect a renewal fo their fighter fleet before 2020 since they currently operate really old airframes, F16 either new (in case they keep making them) or second hand looks like the likely candidate, I would give Grippen, SH and even Rafale or Typhoon some options but I think this last three would exceed the budgets.
Peru is in a good situation after their recent upgrades in mig29s and m2000s their future acquisitions are a complete mistery, I would only discard F35 since I don´t think the USA will be willing to sell nor they will be willing to pay for it. Any other options are possible, however Western aircrafts like SH, Rafale, Typhoon (this last being very unlikely) will have a hard time to get in the market due to price and politics. Grippen would have good chances (particularly if it comes through Brazil) competing with Mig29/35, j10, j17 and even Hal Tejas (supposing it comes on time). Flanker could be an option as well. Peru looks like a market wide open to Russia and China but not closed to the western countries willing to sell.
Grippen could be a good option for Ecuador (if they sell Julian Assange) but I am not aware of their current air force situation nor about their acquisition policies, anyway it seems that they are budgetary restrained as the recent acquisitions of Atlas Cheetah point out, so si wouldn´t expect great expenditures there either.

The only other European country with a gap in MPA provision that I can think of is Italy, & for budgetary reasons it shelved its plans (BTW, the Air Force wants P-8) in favour of getting basic MPAs in the form of four ATR-72s.

France can keep its Atlantiques running for years, & has spare aircraft in store it can reactivate to extend the life of the fleet. Germany bought several ex-Dutch P-3Cs & last I heard was examining a life-extension programme.

Athlantiques and p-3s can keep overhauling, but I think that at some point a substitution should be considered. On the other hand, you are totally right that budgetary constraints are quite limitant for Europeans Countries at the moment. Spain is struggling to overhaul its few p3s since ages. I think Italy has not shares in Airbus, so its logical that they go for ATRs or the already in the market options (with the AF allways wanting the bestin the form of P8s).

on the other hand has jonesy pointed the role for such platforms is not that clear on the close future, and I think most (european) countries would choose the most economic options rather than the best ones (as italy seems to do).

Antonov is Ukranian by name only. funding, subsystems and final manufacturing all Russian. Infact Belarus, Ukraine, Kazakhistan and to certain extent Armenia/Azerbaijan/Uzbekistan population can be included in total population available for manufacturing Aviation products.
It is the opposite of Soviet System where Plants were distributed to republics. Now every thing worth manufacturing shifting to Russia.

thanks, I had the idea Russia is behind Antonov but wasn´t sure to what extent it is so.

PAK-FA won´t come in numbers until 2020 or so (will see) and then it looks like a game changer, as for now most suckhoys aren´t all that brand new. But even when new su-35s get usual i don´t think the would supose a great advantage over typhoons in either AG or AA, the situation might be similar when facing Rafales although they might have a slight edge regarding maniobravility. I think both eurocanards would have advantages over su35s in netcentric working and sensors fusion, and I hesitate PAK-FA would show any adavantage on that either. In general the only really modern Russian concept is the PAKFA, whereas any other thing they have, hasn´t change much since first flights of the flankers family in the early 80’s. Flankers are impresive and keep (and will remain) being exceptional fighters particularly for a country as large as Russia but I don´t think that even the newest versions have any edge over Eurocanards (nor saying other way around).

PS: regarding the russian edge on cargo aircraft, ¿are all we aware of the fact that Antonov is actually Ukranian? that is Mirya, An-124, An-70, 72, 74…

Shouldn’t we have considered the russian advantages when regarding sending men to the outer space?