Transcript of the first scenario:

7:00 “Supercruise” obviously is a technology, not a result of other technology and concepts such as “thrust” and “aerodynamics”. It “utilizes” the F119. Right.
8:00 Coast Guard helicopter dodges 5 missiles, because of course 5 MiG shot at once on a single unarmed heli.
9:00 4 F-22 take on 14 MiG-29. All fly in a formation that allows absolutely zero heads-down time and shows no tactical order whatsoever.
12:00 The Raptors fire. Being outbumbered 3:1 and able to target multiple targets at once, they do the obvious thing: They fire a single shot salvo. The unaware MiGs suddenly get launch warnings for ARH missiles. Missiles fly straight, of course, instead of ballistic. Raptors shoot another single salvo. Makes sense…
14:00 A force of 24 Su-30 MKI and “Mirage Rafales” appears. What’s a Mirage Rafale? Is it the same as a Dassault Rafale? The F-22 picked them up at 150 miles. A pair of B-1R is close by and requested to help. They are FOLLOWING BEHIND.
20:00 Suddenly the F-22s only have a single AMRAAM left each, which they fire at 5 miles out. SOP, I think. 5 miles is totally BVR and totally safe.
21:00 Supposedly the B-1R now ripple missiles from the 120D’s maximum range of 120 miles going by data relayed from the F-22s. The F-22s picked the targets up at 150 miles. A big, honking, new B-1R with a fat nose and thought to be a missile truck seemingly can’t do the same at 120 miles and has to rely on the F-22. Good strategy.
22:00 A handful of Rafales surprisingly survived. The Doppler notch. Two missile hits then aren’t enough to take out a single B-1R though.
25:00 It’s now 6 Rafales against 4 F-22. Raptors’ lack of AMRAAMs forces them into WVR combat. In 2015 this seems to be a turning fight with SRMs. HMCS seems to be a thing forgotten. Raptor fires, Rafale maneuvers and dumps flares like crazy, but Rafale still gets hit and goes down.
30:00 A Rafale fires an IR missile. The Raptor gets a missile warning. MAWs? Also mentioning the distributed aperture system. Quote regarding the action: “The F-22 easily breaks the missile lock.” Of course it does. Easily, even. A second F-22 that rushes to help again “easily gains lock”. “The Rafale is obliterated.”
32:00 The F-22 is targeted by another IR missile. Again breaks lock and evades the missile. Must be a F-22 special.
34:00 Raptor does Pugachev’s Cobra. Doesn’t get fired at for some miraculous reason. F-22 fires though and of course “the missile hits home.” The rest of the Rafales flee.

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It’s a techno thriller with a bit of humour thrown in. Although it’s somewhat lean on military things and filled with computers, codes, intelligence agencies and pop culture instead, it might tickle your fancy. Nothing high-brow, nothing spectacularly literary, but might be worth the read.

If anyone’s interested in printing a copy for personal use, I could also email out a PDF or MS Word document.

🙂

Sorry if the way I presented things was not clear. From what I read the M-88 will be used for the single engine LCA Tejas MkII and the projected twin engined MCA. Ordering Rafale would give engine commonality between all 3 types, IMO effectively ruling Typhoon (and F-18) out of consideration.

And the Eurofighter has two export deals, so that would be more like
Snecma 1 – Eurojet 2

Wouldn’t it? 🙂

I take your point on the AESA but I don’t understand how that can be fully funded without the agreement of all 4 partners. I presume it is a must for aircraft to be produced in tranche 3.

Partly by the companies themselves in anticipation of export deals, partly by the German government.

The point made about tranche 3 in an earlier post was that the UK could simply delay the signing process indefinitely if there is no time limit set for agreement in the contract between the countries involved. Any doubts over what Eurofighter can deliver to Brazil, when and at what price work in favour of Rafale.

The tranche spec talks involve committing to further development, don’t they? How long can tranche 3 agreement be delayed before further development slips?

How can development proceed under such circumstances? Sufficient delay would also dislocate production, raising the price of Typhoon.

Looking at how watertight the contracts have been in case someone wanted to refrain from a commitment, I’d assume that deadlines for signing when other partners have signed already are handled pretty confidently too. I don’t think there’ll much deviation.

Why did Singapore exclude Typhoon from consideration? Insufficient A2G development was the reason given (= delayed development in my book). I can see the same happening with Japan.

There is a difference between “too late at a specific point in time” and “losing time”. If a train from Berlin To Munich reaches one of its stops late, that doesn’t mean it has to lose additional time along the way after it. It could possibly even make some time up. With the recent restructuring within the Eurofighter program to allow quicker developments, progress seems to be made quicker now.

Rafale is getting AESA. From 2011, I have read. I have no idea how effective it will be.

So it doesn’t seem to be much ahead then. At least not ahead enough to be worth a point. 🙂
I guess we’ll see who’ll introduce AESA at what point to what number of units.

Perhaps I have not raised things in a very good way. I’m open to comment.

I think it was just portrayed a bit too definitive. Nothing too bad though. 🙂

Of course until the mooted M-88 joint venture deal is signed between SNECMA and Gas Turbine Research Establishment, much of what I say is conjecture.

I agree though that this deal could be a major foot in the door of the 126-fighter-tender. This collaboration could be worth a lot in the considerations for the fighter order, or possibly express an already existing tendency towards the Rafale.

🙂

According to today’s news:

India to commit to M-88 based engine for Tejas “MkII”. If so, India will not select the Typhoon for its forthcoming acquisition of 126 aircraft.

Rafale 1 Typhoon 0

Snecma 1. Good for them. How does this relate to Eurojet though? Do you mean engine exports in terms of M88 vs. EJ200? The Eurofighter already has two export customers. So the point is?

According to the FT, UK does not want tranche 3. If the UK’s reaction is to delay, delay, delay signing tranche 3 agreement this will delay further development of the aircraft. Will Brazil be kind and delay its RFP for however many years the UK stalls tranche 3? No.

Rafale 2 Typhoon 0

What, what, what? How does this translate into a point for the Rafale? What has it done to earn a point here? As for T3 delays: Germany is firmly committed to T3 and the AESA, so there’ll hardly be any delays due to the UK alone.

Japan will not want a Typhoon without EASA (likely to be delayed by the UK government volte face). If the UK holds this up, Typhoon will certainly not be selected by Japan.

Rafale 2 Typhoon -1

Japan does not have to order the EF in UK spec. Germany is firmly committed to the AESA and funding for it runs somewhat aside the tranche spec talks. And, where’s the Rafale’s AESA? Already in service?

Seriously, there are points to be criticized about the Eurofighter program. The points you raised and the way you tried to raise them just aren’t it though.

Already seen it in NZ, and I can’t say as it was hugely accurate as there was a bit of ”USAF+stealth=invincible” drivel, but otherwise it gives a very interesting and informative insight as to what air combat in the future what could be like. Most of the show is dedicated to outlining the huge changes to air combat that technologies like stealth and AESA will have on air combat in future times when the proliferation of 4.5 gen fighters and advanced IADS is a bit more widespread. Still and all though, it was a pretty awesome show.

I disagree with any notion that this was an awesome show. I was cringing all the way and there’s just a whole lot complete ********. In many regards it’s a pretty stupid episode.

Don’t bother to watch unless you want trashy entertainment.

Less payload, range, choice of weapons.

Why did the IAF opt for it then? It’s not as if they haven’t been successful in their air campaigns. 🙂

I doubt that U.S. would be willing to sell any “modern” technology to Georgia. Next open armed conflict with Russia, and several pieces of that technology will fall into Russian hands.

Could happen with any conflict if a plane gets shot down. Besides, the SH isn’t exactly special the way the F-22 or F-35 are. And I don’t think there will be an open armed conflict in the next decade.

So, I still wouldn’t be surprised if the SH went there. F-16 seems just as possible to me though, and as I said: I think it depends on how much the US really want to commit to this.

Best fighter Georgia could get would be JAS-39…..conscripts can service it easily….good rough field capability……doubt they’l ever get them…….AND they’d need an AD infrastructure…..radars……SAMS…etc. It will NEVER happen. Russia can’t afford to back down now.

The problem with the Gripen is that Georgia wouldn’t be buying into a large, powerful geopolitical protectionate the way they’d with US equipment.

While F-16s seem like the obvious bang-for-the-buck with respectable capability solution for Georgia, I wouldn’t be surprised if they got Superhornets at discount prices. They can stand rough conditions, have up-to-date avionics and electronics, offer a lot of multirole capability and would be a nice showcase for their deterrence qualities for other third parties, especially as another conflict involving Georgia and Russia seems unlikely for the next few years to come.

Depends on how involved the US really want to get with the issue besides just talking about it.