SatorianOf course. Even if the idea of sending Typhoons with Brimstones against Russian armoured columns defended by mobile AD is quite… exciting for the AD (today, Brimstone operators can engage their targets at ranges not exceeding 11 km).
Kinetic limitation or seeker-related?
Satorian(As you can tell I don’t know squat about what’s REALLY going on there. Just trying to sift through all the BS spewed by both sides.)
That’s all anyone could ever hope to achieve here I think. Or as the Süddeutsche Zeitung put it on Tuesday: “Between all the narratives and spin of all parties, the only thing we know is: there’s war.”
Especially the media split on narratives is interesting. Wildly differing opinions going around.
SatorianA bit outside of the primary scope, being more of political than technical nature, bloggingheads.tv is usually worth a visit. Founded by Bob Wright (author of Nonzero, member of the New America Foundation, also been at TED) there are lots of high-profile commenters on there and foreign policy is a constantly featured topic. The latest diavlog with Jonah Goldberg is actually partly about the current conflict between Russia and Georgia.
In their video dialogs they usually try to get people from both sides of the fence to balance political perspectives. Just give it a visit and browse a bit.
Satorian“Today’s reading assignment” here:
http://formerspook.blogspot.com/
(currently the 2nd post)
and it’s cited article make some good points.
sferrin,
I’m not sure you want to associate with someone that cites strategypage.com and the New York Post.
SatorianSo you agree? The peacekeepers did not do what they were supposed to do?
I should have called it the alleged transgressions. Without proof no transgressions, without transgressions no wrongdoing. Exactly what do you think is their task, what did they fail to do, and what should they have done? And which Russian/SO agitators fired what kind of weapon at which Georgian target and was reported by which independent observer?
And you both don’t quote one thing I said, about the Russian army being completely ready. So they knew it was coming and I don’t buy into saying Georgia did it without any reason.
This says to me the Russians knew it all along. And they knew it, because the provocations were happening.
Perhaps they suspected something?
Otherwise, by your logic the US must actually be actively provoking Iran to fire ICBMs in some way, because they are building a missile shield and try to be prepared in general.
Also, opinions on the Russian readiness level vary.
SatorianYou mean the cyberattacks a month prior?
Like that’s any easier to prove. I’m sure the Russian hackers originated from kreml.ru. Which organization vouches for the claim of these cyberattacks? (And on a side note, I think we are in a constant cyberwar anyway. Everyone’s trying to hack everyone else for info all the time.)
Or the complete failure of Russian ‘peacekeepers’ to stop the South-Osetians from firing into Georgia, which they knew would eventually lead to Georgia responding?
What did they fire? From where? Who was hit? Who observed it? I’ve seen this claim on message boards a lot, but nowhere in the press.
The fact that they also entered other regions than the one under fire, says a lot. And they were clearly ready for Georgia (there response time was waaaaaaay too short for them not being ready), why would they if there ‘peacekeepers’ had indeed been keeping the peace?
Peacekeepers usually just provide a presence, but aren’t exactly frontline fighters on the watch all time around. Actually they are usually the most reserved and communicative of the bunch. As for entering other regions: Seeing how warfare is systemic and battlefield operations happen in a larger context, yes, it makes sense to disable systems outside of the immediate battle environment.
This is not that I don’t think Shaakashvili is not to blame, but had Russian peacekeepers done what they should have, it should have never come to this.
That still sounds like a vindication for Georgia and blaming Russia. The Georgian military should just have documented the Russian/SO transgressions and turn towards NATO/UN again. What they did though was a dickheaded move and overplaying their cards, which left them standing in the rain.
SatorianNo, the issue is the lack of objective proof.
Independent journalists like the late Anna Politskaya were not on the scene to report the unfolding events. The loss of a free press has hurt the interests of all Russian – including the Russian military. Without a free, non-state press, there is nobody to report the news, regardless of viewpoint.
Now, it will be hard to reconstruct the immediate sequence of events leading to the conflict. What came first, the first Russian sortie or the first Georgian troop movement? Will we ever know the truth?
Russia’s treatment of the press is a huge topic in itself. Here’s a follow-up question though: Even if Russia’s press is surpressed, where are the independent, reliable observers from Georgia that report being shot at by Russians or their SO henchmen?
SatorianThere was a clear pattern of escalation on both sides. Russia had conduced major exercises and a sustained and massive troop build up to the immediate North of Georgia. In the past, there was the August 7, 2007 missile incident and the March 11, 2007 helicopter incident. It was clear that the level of tensions were increasing. The precarious balance that had existed for 15 years was upset by developments on both sides, but it is equally clear that there was a palpable shift towards confrontation in the last few months and years.
The stage was set for conflict.
You are skirting the issue. Where’s the proof of prior hostile action, either direct, instigated or mitigated, by Russia towards Georgia. Even if the Russian military was near the scene, that does not prove that they threw the first stone.
SatorianThis screenshot from the Youtube video shows a planform that does not look like Su-35. I don’t know how accurate such representations are in the simulator or cockpit, but this does look more like one of the schmatics of PAKFA floating around.
It kind of reminds me of one mockup that has been floating around as well, but I can’t quite put my finger on it. I think I’ll browse around for a pic later on.
Well, we’ll see in a few years. 😀
SatorianArguably lack of intel was what caused the Russians so many problems with the Georgian airdefences. Unlike Desert Storm, Iraqi Freedom and Kosovo they did not have a run-up of several months to thoroughly map out the opposition and then strike at a moment of their own choosing. If it really was an ELINT Backfire the Georgians downed that would only reinforce this point of view.
Also, according to a post-ODS investigation of the GAO, in Desert Storm most air defences did not start tracking/firing until after the bombing, targeting planes on egress. I think this shows how important attention and readiness are. Same could maybe said for the Israeli raid on Syria.
Georgia’s military on the other hand was firmly expecting hostilities (having initiated them and all…) and was prepared for Russian planes.
Might have made a difference as well.
SatorianI think its time we recognise Georgia is the beginning of a MAJOR DECLINE in U.S global power. Its been happening for a while…
I don’t think it’s a decline, but rather a forced restraint. They are still pretty much able to kick anyone’s ass, but they just can’t do it without putting other interests of theirs at risk. I don’t think they are any less powerful, but they are much more dependent upon other nations than they’ve been in the past and this leaves fewer outlets to demonstrate that still existing might.
China’s economy will soon eclipse the United States
Even adjusted for PPP, the US economy is still twice the size. China can’t keep on growing like they did forever, at least without tweaking the books and burning their people to power their rise. The more they catch up, the slower they’ll become.
Russia’s continued presence in Georgia will strengthen Russia’s prestige
Within Russia, perhaps. Outside of it not very much though. They need to get out of there.
They all have their work cut out.
SatorianRemember Sebrenica, when the Serb forces overrun Dutch peacekeepers and killed 8000 innocent civilians, had there been a military intervention, lives wouldn’t have been lost.
At the same time the Russian military shouldn’t strain things too much, especially now that the fight’s over. Ensure safety, allow the others some dignity. All that parading and taunting at least isn’t doing a whole lot of good.
Time to get back to the table for all parties.
SatorianAsk any of the former Soviet Republics or Satellites if they are concern! As a matter of fact Poland mysteriously changed its mind today to allow the US to base a Missile Defense Systems within there boarders…….PLEASE!
Those talks have been going on for a long time now and Poland has agreed quite a while back. That’s not exactly current and hardly motivated by the Georgian incident. The time of signing might have been changed to create a signal, but the intent itself has been there for a while. Technically, I wonder how much use the missile defense system would be to the East European nations themselves.
SatorianPersonally i think its far to early to asses any potential reprecussions of these events, and i would think many goverments feel the same way too at this moment.
Well, I think no one sensible is trying to pass off his opinion as fact. That does not have to keep us from speculating though.
SatorianAny such attempt to attack Russia would be met with a total annihilation of Europe and the U.S in a fell swoop. Remember Putin said Russia would be first to unleash a nuclear retalliation in a case of NATO attacks. This is in sharp contrast with the soviet military doctrine, which aimed at fighting with conventional forces in any conflict and reserving nuclear strike as a means of last resort.
While the notion of attacking Russia over this episode seems absurd on many levels to me, I don’t think the Russian administration would be that hardcore about nuclear retaliation in response to convential warfare either. They might try to loook brash and forceful and play being the big, strong bear (with naked-chest-fishing-trips to boot), but I’m not sure they’d be as trigger-happy on the red button as they claim.
(Also, to respond to another one of Scooter’s points: If the EU sens aid to Georgia, it’ll only be humanitarian aid, no military.)
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