Entropy explains the dispersion.

impressive (Textron AirLand’s Scorpion)
The design met its $3,000/h operating cost target in its first year, and demonstrated a 95% availability rate

Scorpion with a low chord wing would be like a T-38. Similar engine size, much better fuel economy. Marginal lifetime cost difference. I think there is even a digital system available for the engines. At the same time you could take the old T-38 package and bring it up to year 2015 standards. Build in margins for future upgrades, like space for more fuel if someone wants a bigger set of tanks, without major changes. More or less a modular design.

The biggest drawback of more MKI is the continuation of an airframe designed in the 70’s. (The F-15E being even older!). If the deal with Rafale falls through then at least Typhoon is a leap forward in that respect. I always thought Rafale was more refined than Typhoon, but its purely my opinion. Without other more modern options on the market its a no brainer.

You (Rii) mentioned engine importation which we all know if inevitable. I doubt India could re-engineer the MKI nozzle for F100 or F110, but it certainly would be a leap in technology over the current import. Single engine fighters are important in the grand scheme and would it really be a disappointment to see a single engine AMCA rather than a twin engine design?

With FGFA turning into a drawn out affair, the IAF needs to worry about that program slipping schedule, too. F-16IN (Blk 60+) isn’t a bad option in the short term as leverage against both FGFA and Rafale programs.

Quite frankly they bought hook and line into the Mirage 2000 upgrade. They need Rafale numbers, not really the experience of building Rafale without ToT. Ask what kind of price you can get French built Rafales if the hangup is about where it is built. LCA Mk1 is no replacement to Rafale. Even Rafale F.1 favors itself compared to MKI.

If they don’t get Rafale its time to seriously consider a new export F-15E+ version or Typhoon. Buying more MKI is a regression from the goal.

Brazil should have bought Panavia Tornado ADV in a Italio-Brasilia partnership to augment their AMX partnership. Italy could have operated them on lease until the cost of ownership dropped to an affordable level for the Brasilian Air Force.

MPA airframes last 10X as much as fighters from their relative generation. With 50 year old airframes able to slugger on doing the same work for a fraction of new builds, it makes sense to go refits. I’m sure disappointed that P-3’s are being moved to secondary users and the U.S. is building P-8’s at a fraction of the replacements. Surely P-3’s could operate without crews as autonomous platforms at the least.