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Andraxxus

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Viewing 15 posts - 121 through 135 (of 858 total)
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  • Andraxxus
    Participant

    Those eight cargo aircraft arrived to Malatya fro Kayseri and prevented take off at early hours of July 16th. And there was indeed some incident between the coup supporters and ARFF crew of Malatya MJB before police raid.

    Obviously there has been various incidents in many military bases, but anyone who acted outside the chain of command were stopped by the soldiers within the chain of command; I don’t buy the part that whole thing is stopped by some truck drivers parking their trucks at gates or on runways. Since the chain of command was broken, there also has been much confusion as great majority of coup soldiers were unaware they were participating in the coup taken to streets with the orders of “military drills againist terrorism” or “precaution againist an expected terrorist attack”. Majority surrendered or just left right after they’ve learned about the truth (Ataturk airport for example, there is a video of the dialouge between the tank commander and the civillians). Whatever happened, all military bases excluding Akıncı AFB, didn’t want to participate in the coup and anyone who tried to act outside the chain of command arrested… Its not that the trucks or angry crowds deterred them. And maybe 8000 soldiers and 230 tanks and IFVs participated in the coup, but only perhaps 1000 soldiers were really active Gulenist coup attemters. 24 coup soldiers dead, 49 injured and 700 surrendered as declared in 16th july kind of supports this; Plus, I scouted entire majority of ankara at around 11am 16th. All I’ve saw was 5 M-113s, 2 ACV-IFVs, between Gendarmie HQ and the palace (which probably fell back for a last stand) and an additional ACV which probably abandoned after it lost its track, and 2 M-60T tanks. I don’t buy some 500 soldiers and 10 armored vehicles really expecting to take over the city from 17000 strong police force..

    Since you are quite an expert in military topics, were you in the position of the coup planner, and you had so little amount of soldiers (I am counting all 8000);
    -Would you waste your most advanced armor (leo2 tanks) and hundreds of manpower on blocking bhosphorus bridges like some angry taxi drivers’ protest, which would have zero strategic importance in a coup?
    -Would you use all F-16’s to alert everyone you are making a coup even before you make your move againist PM or president, or would you have preferred a more covert plan like assasinate key figures first, then making the show with F-16s?
    -Since intelligence service suspected coup, would you attempt the coup earlier than planned 22:00am at friday night when most folks are already at the streets cafes bars etc or would you delay it to another day?
    -Would you waste your LGBs (which you have no hope of reloading) on heavily fortified building like parliament, or strategically insignificant targets like garden of the palace etc? Or would you have targeted communication, and electricity first? We all watched live coup like a soccer game, in a country you can’t watch youtube without tampering DNS settings.
    -Even if you -stupidly and uselessly- wanted to bomb parliament, what would have been your choice of munition againist a building designed to withstand hits from ballistic missiles? Puny GBU-12’s -which barely strached the roof and smashed the windows- or readily available NEB or comperable 2000lb bunker busters?

    Either this coup was planned by a janitor or something, or it was more of a terrorist attack then to call it a “coup attempt”…

    Andraxxus
    Participant

    Well, I am not one of the ones who thinks these are a setup or anything, but any political and military related news are, IMHO, highly unreliable at this point. For example,

    -News claim, there are some 200 tanks in Armor School, and those were claimed to be stopped blah blah blah blah, and now there are 8-10 trucks in front of the gates to “prevent” tanks from leaving the base. Those are all BS, had tanks even attempted to leave that base, 9-ton trucks wouldn’t have been exactly useful for stopping them. Not that tanks would even need roads; they could just run over the fences to the east and be done with it… What we saw in reality is 3 maybe 4 M-60T tanks in Ankara, and no other tanks. Those units are NOT from Armored school because there is none of that type. To my knowledge, belong to 95th Armored brigade of 1st Army (Turkish North West), and probably were in Ankara just there for parades or doctrine training with 28th Mechanized Infantry Brigade.. Those tanks were, from what I’ve gathered, merely taken by colonel-ranked soldiers, simply ordering conscripts on guard to open the gates and drive out of the base. Thats about it and would make perfect sense, from military perspective, they don’t belong to anyone in Ankara and would be easy takes.

    -Similar stupid claims of fire trucks blocked runways in Malatya to prevent pro-coup aircraft from taking off. So those coup guys had crew & equipment to prepare sufficent number of cargo aircraft to transport 5000 commandos, and arm a full squadron of F-4Es, (both claimed by news agency not me) but they couldnt arrange a aircraft tug, tractor or tow truck etc to move fire trucks from the runway? 20 of those mentioned commandos could have even pushed those trucks off the airfield with their bare hands. But no, our heroic firefighters stopped the whole invasion.. BS and BS.

    -Claim: TR-300 rockets leaving 58th Artillery Brigade stopped by loyalists in Polatlı before they reach Ankara, they were leaving either to bomb Ankara City Center says half of the news (other half gave different targets in Ankara). Ok, they were stopped by police right after they leave their bases, but those rockets have 100 km range and their base is 73 km from city center. They also have a minimum range of 36 km, so they cannot hit Ankara city center FROM Ankara city center. Why leave the perfect launch position in favour of a position you cannot even shoot? Something does not make sense to me.

    -Claim: An S-70i belonging to coup soldiers were shot down in Ankara by an F-16 near the parliament. Fact is, I was in Ankara on a balcony with pretty good vision of the events; entire Ankara was buzzed by pro-coup F-16s for up until the morning; their nav lights were on, so they were pretty easy to follow… There were initially 4, then I’ve counted up to 11 in the same scene sometimes (also during the claimed shoot down incident) then reduced to 2 than went up to 4 up until morning, they were doing flybys some times as low as ~40 meters above ground level, (atakule tower is 125 m, I could easily judge their altitude accordingly to that, as some even flied below the height of the tower), and sometimes lower than my friend’s balcony as they dived into the valley. Good thing is, they made a quite an airshow, and it was quite easy to see their ordnance; All the aircraft I’ve seen buzzing the city were armed with either 2 missiles only on the wingtip stations, or few with 2 AIM-120s + 2 additional AIM-9s in outboard wing stations. and 2x wing EFTs. No bombs, no Lantirn; those were all flying with air to air payloads. Then there were 6 F-16 reported to be taken from Diyarbakır MJB that did the bombings. (I’ve never seen them probably their nav lights were off and flying high to drop LGBs) My point is, there is simply NO way a loyalist F-16 to came right into the middle of those 10+ aircraft, shoot down a helicopter without me seeing/hearing it (I was exactly 2,67km away from parliament, at ~173m higher elevation) and get out without getting shot down.

    Since this is an aviation forum, I should post some pictures about those low flybys;
    https://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/F-16-coup-706x441.jpg
    http://ajans.at/public/files/news/780x400_darbeciler-f-16lara-20den-fazla-yakit-ikmali-yapmis_70.jpg

    EDIT; and a video: starting from 2:32, first part is irrelevant to aviation.

    Andraxxus
    Participant

    As far as I remember the president never said the hotel he was staying was bombed.

    http://www.ensonhaber.com/erdoganin-ayrildigi-yerleskeyi-bombaladilar-2016-07-16.html

    Andraxxus
    Participant

    Our president also said “they bombed the hotel he himself residing” which was also clearly untrue. Those were all counter-propoganda BS spitted during the coup (along with missiles fired from ground againist F-16s, reports of dogfights between F-16s, pro-government F-16 shooting down a S-70, pro-government tanks firing on pro-coup tanks, reports of missing F-16s, helicopters, a frigate blah blah blah blah blah) and it is difficult for them to tell none of those happened. So those kinda stuck despite no one -even pro-AKP guys- believe them.

    That picture is the evidence yeah, there is no helicopter there. I am not saying I am 100% certain no helicopter was lost, but there is a far greater probability this was as misinformation as the other -at least- two dozen claims made that night.

    Andraxxus
    Participant

    A Third version of the story appeared on a newspaper claiming to be quoting the F-16 pilot who bombed the security directorate, claimed he dropped second bomb to stop a Police helicopter before it took off. All are BS if you ask me.

    Currently both TSK and politicians claim all heavy equipment, tanks, armoured vehicles, ships, fixed wing aircraft and helicopters are accounted for, but some small arms and ammo is missing from the inventory.

    in reply to: RuAF News and development Thread part 15 #2185365
    Andraxxus
    Participant

    Size means bearly anything in such scenarios. The size is relative small compared with the projectile cadency and groupings of any Anti-Aircraft cannon let alone dedicated SHORAD/SPAAG. There will be no mission kill if the projectile can not penetrate the armor of the vital part or it penetrates where it want cause much damage to cass a mission kill. Like the armor layout on hinds with small armor plates that indeed only cover the 2/3 of the engine while the last 3rd is uncovered since it is more or less nothing else but the exhaust pipe aswell with last pair of fans which was hit in Afghanistan with total penetration by14.5mm without damaging anything of the engine nor gear box itself.

    The disc area has absolutley no meaning against a 14.5mm round. The chances to hit a rotor blade are rather slim, even when it is a hit the rotor blades are modern type rotor blades that do not split like bambus pattern like old rotors did which would cause immidiate stall or imbalance of lift and with it vibration beyond the point of pilots continence. If you come within weapons range of a 14.5mm Anti Aircraft cannon than your last concern are hits to composite rotors but your concerns shoot be that you would prefer not to sit in a Tiger or any other western AH which all lack bulletproof glass. Not that most BP glass can withstand 14.5mm but tests have shown they actually can at least 45mm BP glass shows good single shot resilience.

    I think you misunderstood me and you are assuming small helicopters like Tiger or A-129 etc are not armored in anyway. They are very well armored and cockpit glasses are bulletproof againist small arms fire. Vitals of A-129 is protected againist 12,7mm rounds, T-129 is also required to have 12,7mm protection in cockpit glass as well.

    So the primary advantage of Mi-28 is its protected againist 14,5 mm rounds plus 20mm HE-FRAG shells, instead of “just” 12,7mm in cockpit area (other vitals like engines are still protected againist 12,7mm IIRC). Hence my comment that Mi-28 brings a greater cockpit armor againist 14,5 mm rounds but the drawback is, non-armored (should have written insufficently armored) parts of the airframe are also more likely to get hit than a smaller helicopter.

    From military POV, a position/vehicle which mounts an 14,5 mm or any AAA vehicle which fires an 20/23mm shells could be and should be dealt from a distance by ATGMs. Light helicopters like Tiger or A-129 could do that with ease, and they are very well armored againist weapons which are not as easy to locate (man portable machineguns, infantry rifles etc) with added bonus of requiring half fuel costs to operate, less heat output againist MANPADs. Small helicopters can technically be much quieter too.

    Size comparison between A-129 and Mi-28, to accurate scale;
    [ATTACH=CONFIG]247249[/ATTACH]
    A copyright notice: I did this quite some time ago without the intention of putting into web, so I don’t remember where I took the blueprints from. if authors see this pm me and I will add the owners into the image.

    in reply to: Missile kill ratios… #2185409
    Andraxxus
    Participant

    http://forum.keypublishing.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=216497&d=1368489056

    If you think Russians estimates regarding AIM-120 are accurate… I am not citing Pk figures as I don’t know them. But I do know missile will have zero probability of killing its target if it can’t reach it 🙂

    in reply to: Missile kill ratios… #2185474
    Andraxxus
    Participant

    @tactical-benny, an accurate calculation, but the problem with claimed Pk (IMHO that is what Amiga500 tried to say, but failed badly in the process), is very much independent from the actual firing scenario.

    You fire a AIM-120B at 100km againist an incoming target with ~300 m/s closure rate at ~16 km altitude. What is your Pk? It is what manufacturer claims IF target does nothing. It is ZERO if target does so much as putting a 30 degree angle, without even reducing its speed.

    Lets put stealth out of discussion for the sake of argument, if 4xF-35s and 4xSu-27s can exchange their R-27REs and AIM-120Bs at 100+ km range, none will hit. Exchange them at 60-70 km range, they will still fall short if target simply turns 60 degree and still maintaning target lock to its target. Note that those are not hard evasion maneuvers, just gentle turns without even requiring countermeasures.

    If target Su-27s drop down to <5km altitude, and when you launch AIM-120s from so little as 10-15 km range, there will still be conditions Pk will be zero, which will be achievable by putting 180 degree to the missile. One can’t even talk about a certain reliable Pk if you fire AIM-120 at less than 7 km range, as this time it will be effective againist tail-on targets, but a high speed approaching target will be immune to it.

    Problem with F-35’s 4 AAM limit is, (again without stealth), would you fire your missile at 100 km or even at 60 km? If you do, you will be forcing your opponent to act accordingly (and waste some of its energy on it) but surely be wasting your missile, but if you dont, enemy aircraft will approach you unhindered, gaining both KE & PE, maneuvering to a more advantageous position to fire at you. Again in the above scenario, Su-27 can fire its first R-27RE missile at 100km, second at 60, then 30, then 20, throw a pair of R-27TEs somewhere along the line, and will still have 4 R-73s to merge and finish off if all those R-27RE/TEs fail to hit.

    With stealth in question, obviously all such scenario would play differently, but since F-35’s potential adversaries would be equally stealthy, missile count in internal bays will eventually turn out to be a problem.

    in reply to: RuAF News and development Thread part 15 #2185930
    Andraxxus
    Participant

    Size/Weight brings another aspect to the discussion… A projectile hit on a engine or a fuel tank is still a mission kill for Mi-28 just as it is for a Tiger. A Tiger has 1/3 weight, 3 meters shorter. Which one would be easier to hit? While it is unquestionable a Mi-28 has better armor in certain areas like cockpit, how about unarmored but vital areas like engines, rotor, tail rotor etc? Technically againist a few techicals with machine guns spraying 14,5mm rounds at ~1 km range, 232 m2 rotor disk area of Mi-28 would make it much more vulnerable than a Tiger with just 133 m2 disk area.

    in reply to: Missile kill ratios… #2187192
    Andraxxus
    Participant

    How can one miss is sufficent to draw the conclusion that probability of kill doesn’t matter or manufacturers are lying about them? A 99% Pk would still mean at least some missiles will miss their targets. As for shooting drones, if my memory serves right, even a MiG-25 shot down a drone in the past. So the low/slow flying ability is not exactly a necessity IMHO.

    in reply to: How to sinking Battleship WW2 in today ? #2191792
    Andraxxus
    Participant

    True, but AP round is not exactly a APFSDS round; granted a steel tip will perform better in the first milliseconds of the entry, but an 16 inch round still has to make a hole roughly 16 inches in diameter in order to get past the armor. Its length to diameter ratio is pathetic, actually less than 1/3 of a Anti-ship missile, so it would be much more prone to ricochet instead of going inside the armor.

    A P-500 missile is 22 inches in diameter, so roughly it has 1,9 times area that would be focusing several times greater kinetic energy and even greater explosive force to that area.

    Of course, a P-500 missile can fly on preprogrammed autopilot and can recieve course updates and made to impact from more favourable angles or be made to top dive, but IMHO that still wouldn’t be necessary.

    in reply to: How to sinking Battleship WW2 in today ? #2191937
    Andraxxus
    Participant

    Ok, compare the size of the two, composition (density). Then consider that the Oniks is not going to be a 3 ton missile at the target nor is it’s speed 3062 km/h at sea level (closer to 2400 km/h, mach 2 at sea level). Velocity is not everything, hardened cap of small diameter vs seeker head on missile. Which one would you say is designed to penetrate? The AP shell was designed for a specific purpose, to penetrate armor plate, the same is not true of modern AShM, they don’t have to.

    Valid points but I don’t think you are fully aware of the magnitude of kinetic energy an AShM have. Lets compare from another point of view;

    https://youtu.be/BvigKyp_hcs?t=1m17s

    Second Anti-ship missile (probably of P-500 type) hits the ship from the bow, penetrates hull and every bulkhead and walls ship has and exits from the stern. Ship is probably (judging from the size comparison with P-500) slightly over 80 meters long. If we look at the path missile follows within the ship there is way greater mass of steel than a 40-50 cm armor would have. Worse, its arranged like a “spaced armor”, so it has much greater effectiveness than a single bulk of metal.

    Can an 16/18 inch AP shell penetrate an unarmored 80 meter long ship in similar fashion the missile in the video?

    in reply to: How to sinking Battleship WW2 in today ? #2193526
    Andraxxus
    Participant

    Nonsense. ~30 cm steel belt armor or ~4 cm deck armor is not something to be exeggerated in today’s technology. Even a Harpoon SSM could penetrate that with ease, and larger supersonic SSMs like Moskit, P-500 or P-700 would tear a battleship’s guts out with single hit just as any other ship.

    Only 50cm turret armor would be of concern to smaller missiles, but no modern weapon would necessarily target individual turrets anyway.

    As for aerial attack, historically largest battleship Yamato, with heavier armor than Iowa, took 12 bombs and 7 torpedo hits before getting sunk that makes roughly around 3260 kg of payload delivered to the ship. Today, a single F-16 can deliver greater payload in the form of 4x Mk-84 bombs, with far greater precision than a WWII dive bomber; even without using guided munitions.

    Andraxxus
    Participant

    The F-22 is not even in the same weight class as the Su-27

    Well that is true, altough not in the meaning you implied; F-22 is full 3,4 ton heavier 26% larger wing surface when compared to Su-27. It is WAY larger aircraft. Comparing F-22 with Su-27 is like comparing 13,3 ton F-15C or 14,3 ton F-15E with 10,9 ton MiG-29A…

    in reply to: MiG-29 shortlegged? #2197017
    Andraxxus
    Participant

    However, don’t the later F-16 variants have degraded range performance due to extra weight and more powerful engines? One often reads about F-16A’s spectacular range performance, but later models apparently necessite CFT’s to match that.

    Of course, no doubt the specific range would decrease due to those; but same could be said for MiG-35 with its incrased wing area, weight and thrust compared to MiG-29 9.12A. Still, as far as F-16 is concerned, its pretty calculable to show an F-16 blk50+ would still outrange F-16A:

    Drag index of 600 gal tanks is 28 (including NJETT pylon). Drag index of 370 gal tanks is 27. Negligable difference. F-16 with CFTs have exact same “basic aircraft” drag index as one without. So as far as cruising is concerned, only difference between an F-16A and F-16E would be weight.

    For the very same payload, F-16 blk50 with CFT is 4908lbs heavier, and can carry 5946 lbs more fuel. That makes ~11k lbs of difference;

    According to F-16 flight manual, looking at optimal cruise specific ranges at drag index 200, specific range at 48000 lbs is 0,084 nm per pound of fuel. If this was an 11k lbs lighter F-16 variant, it would weight at 37000lbs with full fuel and exact same payload and had 0,098 nm/lb.

    On theory,(excluding reserve fuel, climb acceleration loiter etc etc) and ignoring the fact that weight loss due to fuel consumed will constantly improve these weight figures both aircraft;
    14188lbs of fuel @ 0,098 nm/lb = 1390 nm flight range;
    20134lbs of fuel @ 0,084 nm/lb = 1691 nm flight range.

    Not as much an improvement as one would expect (~22% increase for 42% increase in fuel capacity), but its quite an improvement nonetheless.

    The RD-33MK might have a better SFC as well:

    According to data I have, RD-33 have 75 kg/kN-h dry and 188 kg/kN-h wet SFC, compared to F-16’s 68,24 kg/kN-h dry and 200,75 kg/kN-h wet.

    I am reading this from my own excel file so I have no source to back them up consider them to be potentially unreliable but, this means F-16’s bigger engine is slightly more efficient when cruising but MiG-29’s engines are more efficient in ACM or dash speeds.

Viewing 15 posts - 121 through 135 (of 858 total)