TeerWhat I say, as said previously, is that the US have a history of blocking countries actions even if these have bought weapons, France, not so much, and, as a result, India is less vulnerable to producers change of position with the French, than with the USA
not to speak of the necessity, if they bought “that opther fighter”, to do important maintainance in another country, be it in peace time or when at war…
Agree the French have a long and positive history with the Indian armed forces.
TeerThat sounds like a wise move.
Has to be done right, though. A well-designed organisation can be a valuable asset, but a poorly-designed one can make them worse. The French DGA, which also deals with some exports, blundered badly in Morocco, didn’t it? IIRC it tried to sell a bundle of unrelated weapons on the back of Mirage 2000s, to prop up their producers, & Morocco was getting different prices from Dassault (lower) & the DGA (higher). Doh! The Moroccans bought F-16s.
I understand there was some re-drawing of lines & re-allocation of responsibilities after that fiasco.
Sorry to be cynical, but people get the Govt they deserve and sometimes, just sometimes, they manage to score a KO. This is the first Govt in a long long while with the right set of folks at the helm with a focus on getting basics right (serviceability, cut down on red tape, corruption etc). However every other day there is an attempt to sabotage them or pull them down. If people are smart enough to keep these guys around, yes, there will be positive change. Otherwise more of the same as earlier, corrupt folks and incompetent morons making hay (losing a sub and the defense minister of the time won’t even order batteries, made locally, to preserve his image), heights of stupidity and criminal malfeasance. Anyhow, the MOD (IMHO) has been long used by vested interests to make hay & I hope the spring cleaning continues.
TeerI think you’ve really, really, missed the point. If India offers terms that Dassault finds satisfactory (i.e. commercially worthwhile), I’m certain that Dassault will agree immediately. It’s a commercial company. Talking about ‘meeting midway’ ignores that. It assumes that Dassault is asking too much, & can be beaten down. Why do you think that? Dassault isn’t going to hold out for excessive margins, because that’s bad business. It knows that India has other potential suppliers.
That if is the big thing. Assuming that all countries or manufacturers have the same profit requirements or cost structures or requirements that force the same profit benchmark is a mistake. In India’s deals so far with France and Dassault, even, there is always a huge premium paid vis a vis deals with other suppliers, such as Israel. That premium is paid because of the Indian Armed Forces preference and history for French kit and political issues (sanction busting), but with the GOI opening up the floor to the US, all bets are off.
To the Indian side it really doesn’t matter whether the Dassault pricing is for profit or its internal choice or just to be cussed. They will evaluate against the competitors & available funds, and walk if they don’t have the money because the needs are huge.
I suspect that one problem is that there are risks & potential costs to dealing with India (bureaucratic hold-ups, etc) that Dassault has factored into the price, but which are hard to explain to the Indian side. “We’ve added x% to the price to allow for your officials being difficult to deal with & the risks that brings” doesn’t go down well.
It could be that or multiple other things or simply an internal allocation which requires that for future programs, Dassault recovers x amount from the deal etc. Companies have a bunch of reasons to do what they do. In the case of the Rafale, they are no longer beholden to India as a launch customer and the reduction of the deal from 126 to 36, with no guarantee of firm orders makes it even less a priority.
BTW, I’m not sure that Indian military bureaucrats have learned from the Gorshkov affair, where they successfully bargained the price down – then found that it wasn’t deliverable at that price, & they had to shell out a lot more. See what I mean? Deal too hard & you can cheat yourself. The lowest price isn’t necessarily the best deal.
That’s always been the problem with the L-1 tender system & the current Govt is changing it. They are putting a priority on the ability of the firm providing the eqpt to be able to actually supply it.
Plus this
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/economy/govt-mulling-separate-setfor-defence-acquisition-parrikar_5642881.html
Teerhmm so far i seen India developing planes, engines and A2A missiles. How about airborne radar ? Does India ever develop a fighter or AEW radar ?
The AEW&C program (biz jet based, S Band, 300km class for a small fighter target) is in trials. Follow on program is in development.
An airborne AESA radar for the LCA is in prototyping.
TeerThe F-16 sale is still not through (the US Congress is playing spoiler). Plus with the 50% FMF line withdrawn, practically speaking it amounts to a sale of a mere four F-16s. Not that F-16s were really a strong contender to start with for India – its still serving in the PAF in numbers (Saab had a better shot in the same price range).
The F-16 is a no can do for the IAF given the PAF heritage. They won’t go for it.
Deliveries shouldn’t be an issue vis a vis the F-35; despite its impressive production rate, its still got oodles of capacity left. Enough to deliver 36 fighters within five years of indent.
It would make sense, and in fact, even more to order 3 squadrons worth of airframes in the beginning itself.
54 strong I’d guess. Mirage-like numbers. With a third squadron ordered after 2020. Maybe.
60 if we see attrition reserves.. number of airframes in the current deal has been mentioned as 36+18 options, others have mentioned 60-72 (eventually).
IMO, 36 airframes and stopping at that, is a waste. It will make the IAF into an even bigger menagerie.
TeerIndia needs to recognise that when Rafale was selected for MMRCA L1 it was a buyer’s market. Now it’s a seller’s market.
You say the ball’s in Dassault’s court. I don’t see why Dassault should have much interest in hitting it back over the net.
Sellers market if India sticks to the premise that the Rafale is the only choice. If it agrees to taking F/A-18s or EFs or whatever, the options increase. Whether they’ll come in cheaper than the Rafale is a key issue though.
As regards Dassault not choosing to hit it back over the net, that’s their choice to make! My personal belief is that Dassault is much better placed to ignore the need for a midway deal since they now have other deals in place & anticipate others even if the India one does not go through.
TeerEr – no. Bazaari mentality doesn’t work in this context. Dassault has no incentive to sell unless it is profitable. It no longer has the problem of covering fixed costs from too little production. Now, selling more aircraft might require investment. ‘Meeting midway’ – why? ‘Midway’ is an arbitrary number unrelated to costs. The floor price is the cost of fulfilling the order. Nothing less than that makes sense. If ‘midway’ isn’t at least that, it’d be damaging for Dassault to agree to it.
BTW, it isn’t up to LM alone whether it can offer the F-35. First, it has to be cleared with the government. And don’t expect ToT.
Why jump to conclusions and use quasi pejoratives like “bazaari mentality” to describe a transaction? Were the swiss displaying similar mentality when they decided some options were unaffordable? Likewise the Brazilians?
Did I say anywhere that Dassault must and should do something? Clearly, meeting midway means to strike a mutually profitable deal. The Indian side gives up some demands (TOT, low price), Dassault gives up some profit. If Dassault does not and the ball is in their court whether their choice is to do so or not, then the Indian side may end up pursuing other options. Its that straightforward.
Why over complicate the above with all sorts of hypotheticals that Dassault won’t even recover their floor price or such like.
As regards the F-35, given the USG has offered a lot in recent years & given safeguards and provisos it may well make its way.
TOT is not really a decider, since India is not getting any TOT with the Rafale either & if 36-54 airframes are all that are affordable, some decision makers in the IAF may well push for that.
If silver bullets are all you get, then you might as well go for the best (available) silver bullets.
TeerLoke, Teer: you’re both right. India no longer has as strong a negotiating position as it did before the Qatari & Egyptian orders, & Dassault is no longer willing to make a deal at almost any price. It’s still keen to sell, though – as long as it’s profitable to do so, & doesn’t threaten Dassault’s future prospects. I think any difficulties in agreeing terms now are likely to be from failure by the Indian side to accept that things have changed. Oh, & the usual problems with India’s military procurement system. It’s frustrating watching them from the outside.
From the Indian sides perspective, appreciating things have changed would mean agreeing to terms which are much less equitable than those before. No Indian bureaucrat would sign off on that. It will invite censure and allegations of corruption. So the ball truly is in Dassaults court, until and unless it meets the MOD midway and offers a good deal (especially when there is no TOT anymore), India will walk. The current DM is a tough type who understands the nitty gritties of tech and negotiation & hence he will move onto other options & get IAF to agree (which at this point will take it, as versus having nothing out of the MMRCA). IMHO EF, Boeing etc may still stand a chance. After the F-16 sale, LM is out unless it offers the F-35 and upends everything LOL. (late deliveries apart).
If India does buy the Rafale, my best guess is we’ll have around a 60 strong fleet, around 3 squadrons worth.
TeerNew Adour? You mean India plans to buy/produce the new Adour after rejecting it for Jaguar in favour of F125, another project that has been rendered borderline ridiculous by the passage of time without apparent progress?
There are no words adequate to describe such folly.
Not that simple. The Jaguar is by current standards and what the upgrade demands of it very underpowered.
Every bit of performance counts. The F125 offered lighter weight and better hot and high performance – which means the Jaguars can be used in Kashmir.
http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/2012-10-19/honeywell-f125-confirmed-indian-jaguar-re-engining.
India also did an assessment of both powerplants.
At the parallell AERO-INDIA-Seminar, a DRDO-official that asked not to be named, delivered his balance to ACIG. He said the American engine has superior tolerance to debris-damage and bird-strikes [than the Adour Mk821]. It is also 266 kg lighter, offering between 17 and 40 % higher thrust, thereby offering the Jaguar a 1,5-tonne payload increase. But the Mk821 might be the safer choice, as the F125 is derived from the TFE731 which originally was designed for business jets. When the ROCAF did install F125s on their ‘Ching-Kuo’-fighters, the results were reportedly poorer than expected. The powerplants were not responding properly to the rapid throttle-settings demanded by a combat aircraft.
So they went for the higher risk option judging the rewards to be commensurate. But, it all depends on how the F125 turns out.
And how has the program been rendered ridiculous? The DARIN-3 Jaguars are still work under progress (their latest radar fit is the EL/M-2052 as versus the original 2032) and will be in trials. Even the new ECM proposal only got recently cleared. The existing airframe and aggregates have a high degree of indigenization & there, the Adour would have made sense (and from my perspective i’d go for the Adour over the F125 given what happened – 1999). But it seems the IAF has come around to having US kit & if that is the case, then it makes sense to go for the F125.
With some 5 squadrons of Jaguars and a lot of fatigue life left (http://www.acig.info/CMS/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=253&Itemid=62 with local MRO/MLU capability), it makes sense to go for engine re-engining.
Its not like we are getting Rafales anytime either. With this upgrade and some new munitions, the Jaguars will be around (and useful) for a long time
With 90% airframe indigenization, presumably something similar for the aggregates, 89% for the Adours (though the F125s would require new work) – its a very useful plane
TeerDassault is a commercial enterprise. The more it sells, the better. It doesn’t stop trying to sell as soon as it makes one sale. It moves on to the next possible customer. If it stops selling, it stops living. And it knows that.
Lets say Indian deal was “essential” for Dassault to land its first export order & also then use it to move onto other markets, and for that it was willing to compromise around TOT and take lower margins.. its no longer the case. In this case, Indian MOD no longer has the negotiating power it once did vs Dassault and it has nobody else to blame but itself under the prior Govt for having made a hue and cry about Rafale being the winning contestant and it won’t negotiate with anyone else and then the IAF for routinely undercutting the MODs and the Indian states negotiating power by claiming there is no Plan B etc.
TeerHAL was primary contractor , not necessarely the one doing all the parts. you say there are options out there that could have been better. Maybe, maybe not , there are no evidence any of the actors linked up with Dassault for any better proposition .
Move on HAL maybe pre MRCA, I would not know , but for sure this accelarated the process , as the annonce of opening the market to private businesses was straight after the MMRCA episode. I meant the whole procurement idea of a new fighter plane.
Point is every credible firm out there who didn’t want to partner with a PSU went to Tata, or Mahindra or several other firms. What was so special about the firm Dassault chose? Also, if Dassault knew MOD specified HAL which even Tata acknowledges has far more knowledge in the field (http://www.tatahal.com/) then what was Dassault thinking by choosing somebody which contradicted the MOD?
Also, you are wrong if you think the MMRCA has anything to do with pvt business announcements in defense. Are you even tracking the Indian Govt? They have worked to open up the market for ALL groups not just aerospace. Will you link this to MMRCA too (http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/soon-private-sector-will-manufacture-ammunition/article8280087.ece) or that the Indian MOD is working to its stated plan pre election??
I mean you are clearly not familiar with India’s policies and industry. I wouldn’t be making dramatic assertions about France’s policies or its internal politics either since I know very little about what’s happening there.
Defence Production
With its skilled human resources and technical talent, India can emerge as a global platform for
defence hardware manufacture and software production. BJP will strengthen the Defence Research
and Development Organization (DRDO); encourage private sector participation and investment, including
FDI in selected defence industries.Technology transfer in defence manufacturing will be encouraged to the maximum.
We will find solutions to the problems hampering the growth of the defence sector.
We will encourage domestic industry to have a larger share in design and production of military
hardware and platforms for both domestic use and exports, in a competitive environment
http://www.bjp.org/images/pdf_2014/full_manifesto_english_07.04.2014.pdf
So they did what they planned.
Nothing wrong in what you are saying, it is only a matter of how priorities are being set. But figuring out 10 years + after , that there are other cheaper alternative , is a big waste of time and resources, while it was pretty predictable from the onset .
That’s the previous Govt’s silliness by giving Dassault all the cards on a platter and setting up a MMRCA process divorced from price and also mismanaging the economy..
I also think we are not comparing the same , all depends on the life span those billions for 36 airframes cover compared to millions spent here and there , spread over time on other options.
Those 36 airframes will add limited capability to India’s combat power as versus spending more realistically in other areas. To quote an analogy, there was a Pakistani poster here who used to brag non stop about how PAFs handful of new F-16s made it superior to the IAF. Similarly, a silver bullet force of Rafales won’t dramatically change the outcome versus getting the basics right with existing inductions and boosting capability elsewhere.
$12 Billion is a LOT of money, I am sure you understand.
As said once the MMRCA appeared clearly un-affordable, which it was from the on-set I may add , the whole procurement process should have been revised. I think the PM attempted exaclty that via his gov to gov MOU . But I can not check out the feeling that the MOD gone straight back on the very same lines of thought and process than with the MMRCA, with the same result.
PM wanted a deal with France on nuclear tech and get “Make in India” investments. He then offers such deals as sweeteners and leaves it to his team to finalize provided both sides agree. Dassault has no incentive now to make this deal happen since Indian MOD under previous Govt was stupid enough to announce them as the sole winner whom they would work with, give Dassault a PR win and negotiating power and then realize Dassault was winning more deals after the Indian and Swiss evals came out and didn’t need the Indian deal anymore.
MOD’s job is to make affordable, sensible decisions. Modi handpicked Parrikar and won’t second guess him. Its Parrikar’s decision to make the deal happen (if it suits Indian needs) or not.
Dassault is not particularly cheap , but when ending up with 20-30% higher Price than expected, there can be 2 explanations . It is overpriced , or your are not really ready to pay for all what you asked .
.
Or Dassault cares two hoots about what it had earlier tacitly communicated to India and wrangled the deal, since it now has other exports lined up.
TeerDamning critique of India’s procurement process (Source: NewsClick India)
D Raghunandan, writes:
Nor are they alone. Indian engineering majors such as Tatas, L&T and johny-come-lately Reliance are racing to form partnerships with foreign aviation companies to ‘Make in India.’ And just last week, the indefatigable RM Manohar Parrikar declared that soon India will start making fighter aircraft in India through the private sector, obviously with international partners. As everybody knows, and as many commentators including retired senior Air Force officers have pointed out, none of these Indian firms have the necessary capabilities to contribute to development of aircraft systems and they can and will remain only assemblers or sub-contractors.
He makes some valid points but:
L&T
Fundamental problem in Indian media and all the “progressive”, “scientific” outlets – facts be darned.
Its key service offerings include:
Design, Development and Manufacture of avionics subsystems/Line Replaceable Units
Design, Development and Manufacture of Defence Electronics
Design, Development and Manufacture of Automated Test Equipment & Ground Checkout systems
Upgrades to existing systems
Obsolescence Management
System Integration, Testing and Validation
Build to Print of avionics subsystems
http://www.larsentoubro.com/heavy-engineering/products-services/defence-aerospace/
But never mind, lets look at Tata.
Tata Power
TATA ASL, Nova etc apart.
Yes, many issues with MMRCA process, but what does this chap do, he lays the blame for a flawed earlier process on the current RM who is trying to solve things. I think thats unwarranted.
TeerThe MOD made HAL mandatory prime contractor and decider of the process and logistic network. Actually it was more to act as a subcontractor given it will not carry any of the responsibilities. All this while Dassault was denied any means of control over the process ,only accountable for the result. In the end it is the much higher and unaffordable production cost of HAL made airframe , as per HAL chosen process that was the last nail to the coffin, and accelerated I must add, a change toward terminating HAL monopoly and opening competition to private businesses.
So if HAL is the designated choice, why did Dassault choose somebody else? There were options out there better than the one you stated.
Also the move to end HAL’s monopoly was pre MRCA and is at best a half baked effort, given India is not buying 400 fighters at one go to necessitate two manufacturing orgs. Modi’s govt’s defence push is hardly tied to Rafale.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/modi-government-clears-16-defence-licence-proposals-worth-rs-613-crore/articleshow/47927602.cms
I am sure MOD would like nothing else than to get ride of Dassault from the picture ,
Huh? If MOD gets rid of Dassault who gives the Rafale?
MD speech have notably been implying it on a regular basis ,and MOD has been visibly working hard toward that end twice now. Latest being to convert a gov to gov MOU for 36 FAF priced off-shelves airframes for short term delivery to demands leading to a whooping 13 billion price tag ,if figure is to be believed, where they are only ready to give 10 billions…..
Before talking the 25% difference, one should wonder what kind of demands have been added for which MOD claim it is willing to spend 10 billions for 36 airframes.
MOD’s aim is to secure a good deal for India not Dassault. Why is that so hard to understand?
36 Rafales as overpriced as they are, or so it seems, will not secure a good deterrence for India.
Its items are expensive, in this case, prohibitively so. Hence MOD is well within its rights and common sense to look for a better deal (not that there may be many).
If you ask me, I’d rather spend the $12 Billion on:
1. Infantry modernization (India’s #1 need given the proxy war used by Pakistan)
2. Artillery (good for war and peace)
3. Ammunition and spares for existing equipment (IAF, IA, IN) to bring them all to 70%+ mission capable rates
4. PGMs and new weapons and sensors for IAF (eg latest gen radars for 7 squadrons of Su-30s) and better AAMs and Navy (towed array sonars on all ships).
5. More investment in local R&D for 1 to 4.
That to me, is far more bang for the investment than wasting it on 36 Rafales for a single acquisition which will eat up the budget for decades.
Raising Su-30 serviceability from 60% to 70% on a fleet of 270 planes, is equal to 27 Rafales, so to speak.
TeerSounds like the Indians are just delusional. They have been negotiating a Rafale buy with France/Dassault for how many consecutive years now?
Obviously the parameters have evolved with the death of MMRCA, but if they are still 30% apart on price then this deal is essentially dead.
France is a very high-cost supplier. Either you pay the price or you don’t, but you aren’t going to talk them into losing millions of dollars on the deal no matter how hard you negotiate.
The previous Govt may or may not have been delusional. Extending that to the entire country, though smacks of silliness.
TeerIf a local industry come to you with the budget and will to expand its operations into the aerospace domain high end composites parts, while you assessed there are no local equivalent. .
Lets face it, you are just pulling out some claims- composites, this, that without even knowing why exactly Dassault did what it did. Claiming it was composites, or manufacturing is clearly not the answer.
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