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DovinR

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Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 69 total)
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  • in reply to: The Brand New IAF Thread (XI) – MOVED #2400901
    DovinR
    Participant

    I’ve asked this before, Is it possible for the thread creator to request mods to block individual posters from posting in a thread ?

    That should solve a lot of problems.

    I hope I wasn’t a part of the problem. Could not see replies to my post before it got locked.

    in reply to: Brahmos #1806795
    DovinR
    Participant

    my (layman’s) understanding is its both an improved seeker and a software upgrade. Software upgrade was needed to allow complex terminal maneuvers at such high speeds to exploit the increased accuracy provided by the new seeker.

    in reply to: Indian Space & Missile Discussion II #1806797
    DovinR
    Participant

    If India raises a few regiments of Brahmos for use as heavy artillery, would that be the first time this is done ?

    What are the strategic aspects of having multiple regiments of super sonic cruise missiles ? w.r.t Pak & China.

    Suddenly any major target (formations, temp HQ, ammunition dumps etc) is within range of an unstoppable pinpoint strike without prior warning. And this can be repeated many times.

    Not sure how many india can afford, but I’d like to see a oversupply of Bhramos in the inventory.

    in reply to: Report on China's ASBM worth a read i guess #1807027
    DovinR
    Participant

    I don’t mean to interfere, but I think the term kt refers only to blast power/radius of the shock wave. But a nuclear bomb’s destructive power is made up of the shock wave (primarily, some 30% IIRC), heat emission (another 30%) and radiation fallout (20%). In this sense, the H bomb is indeed more destructive. I may be wrong though, someone could perhaps confirm?

    Kt is Kt – even TNT will do if you can produce enough Kt with it.

    Hydrogen (fusion) bombs allow higher Kt with smaller size bombs. Otherwise you will need large transport aircraft to deliver each bomb.

    in reply to: Report on China's ASBM worth a read i guess #1807910
    DovinR
    Participant

    If this is true, then why did russians give it up for cruise missiles ? Because ASBMs are not practical in a hair trigger alert scenario ??

    in reply to: Report on China's ASBM worth a read i guess #1807939
    DovinR
    Participant

    I’ll continue this discussion if there is an appropriate thread for it. Meanwhile think about this,

    USA – Civil War due to slavery
    Germany – Defeat, global condemnation and break up after Hitler
    Japan – Nukes, loss of autonomy to US, end of monarchy after WWII

    China – ____________ ????? what event before it actually becomes a country that offers the similar levels of standard of living, liberty and right to pursue happiness to its citizens ?

    in reply to: Report on China's ASBM worth a read i guess #1807961
    DovinR
    Participant

    Of course they have. But saying that US and China benefit from trade is quite different than claiming that China becoming “strong” was solely the result of “offering the blood and sweat of chinese workers to make the lives of americans better.” That was one factor, certainly, but it’s just one of a great number of reasons.

    Why peg reminbi to US dollar then ? Strong, self confident economies whose goods and services can compete on their own let their currency float and let the world markets decide. But China is scared that if their exports cost more in _Dollars_, they will lose the US market. Scared enough to not care that keeping Reminbi weak costs them heavily for imports such as Oil and all raw materials. Obviously exports to US must mean a lot. The higher cost of imports is offset by the cheap chinese labour who have no right to protest or strike for higher pay. They are also not allowed to know what recourses to justice workers in other parts of the world have, lest they get ideas.

    (try going to http://www.yahoo.cn and search for falun gong. You will see how scared China is of free communication between ordinary people)

    Chinese growth on US consumption of cheap chinese goods is a historical fact, irrespective of whether you are ashamed of it or not. Its in fact a major, if not the foremost, event in the world economic history of late 20th and early 21st century.

    I’m not going to argue what is well known. If you want to deny it, fine. Others can all read up independent sources if they are curious.

    As long as China does not let its currency float and allow civil rights and media freedom, it won’t be a great power. You can argue the current arrangement is needed to make China great quickly. May be. But that means it hasn’t reached there yet.

    China may in future change its growth plans to be less dependent on US and in exports overall, but I don’t think we will be allowed to discuss economics here for long..

    Just in case anyone is wondering what the relevance to the thread is, my contention is that US is more scared of losing the free meal than any military threat that China can mount as of today.

    in reply to: Report on China's ASBM worth a read i guess #1808017
    DovinR
    Participant

    Yes, yes Chinese working like slaves for the Americans. We’ve heard it all before. Of course, if you’d also done your research you’d know that the US isn’t even China’s largest export customer.

    At $337.8 million in 2009, US remains by far the largest export market for China. However, EU (not a country) has overtaken US as the largest trade partner. This is because there are many imports from EU to China unlike the US which is a one way street ($71.5 billion in imports from US to China)

    I’m not trying to diss the arrangement between US and China, but the fact that China and US have both benefited from the one way flow of cheap services and goods to US is not something I made up.

    Anyway, I’ll stop this OT discussion and try to get back on topic.

    in reply to: Pakistan Air Force II #2423240
    DovinR
    Participant

    In a nutshell, my contention is that _IF_ there is an all out war (for whatever reason) then india has already taken the decision to challenge pak’s stated nuke red lines. In this situation the aim of IAF will be to establish air supremacy at the earliest and bring the war to a quick successful conclusion. IAF purchases and planning have to be seen in this context – of course China being the primary cause of concern these days.

    I agree chances of an all out war is minimal because, unlike many posters here believe, india has no interest and indian politicians won’t get any support from people in waging a war with pakistan when things are going well in india, and we have no interest in occupying pak cities. Even if pak did not have nukes, other than strikes on terror camps, IAF or IA won’t try to invade or hold pak territory as it is more trouble than worth it.

    The only reason for war is if pak falls to jihadis, which many here believe to be a remote possibility.

    All in all very positive news for peace in the sub continent :rolleyes:

    I’m a long time reader of this forum, but a recent poster. I try to understand the reasons behind military planning (such as acquisitions), hence the political content of my posts rather than technical discussion of equipment. I will keep it polite and avoid personal attacks. Hope this is not entirely against the mandate of this forum.

    in reply to: Pakistan Air Force II #2423412
    DovinR
    Participant

    Now I’m sure some smart Alec will ask why PAF is purchasing F-16’s AND AWACS if there is no threat — because you have to retain a conventional detterence as well as a nuclear one.

    Why ? All we have to do is for india and pak to state a nuclear red line as the other party crossing the border. Simple. No need for army, navy or air force. Just a nuclear missile force is enough. hundreds of them dispersed in silos and rail/road mobile. Finish!

    Both india and pak seem to believe a conventional war is still possible given their acquisitions. As long as that possibility is present, one has to calculate what is the nuclear threshold. Indian threshold is straightforward. Attempt by PAK to strike indian soil with nukes is indian red line for a mass retaliation.

    Pak threshold is not so clear. Sometimes it is ‘any border crossing of indian forces’ or ‘ blocking of river waters’ and so on. So india has to make a guess.

    IMO, indian guess is the nuke threshold is either – total loss of power and property by the current ruling elite OR take over by islamicists.

    The above is in case of an unavoidable war.

    OTOH, india is worried that an unpredictable element in pak may let loose a nuke to stir things up at the slightest provocation. There is also the necessity to not give US an opportunity/excuse to meddle in kashmir and other india-pak issues.

    Thus the options for india are either extreme patience and pure defence within indian territory, OR a fast resolution by quickly overwhelming pakistan in an all out military strike. Anything in the middle will be a sure fire disaster.

    Whether india is capable of overwhelming pak quickly or not is another discussion. My contention is only that this is the indian plan and any nuclear red line specific to destruction of PAF is not going to bother india _IF_ a full blown war breaks out. IAF’s effort will be to wipe out PAF at the earliest so that IA gets full support from IAF in moving quickly.

    in reply to: Pakistan Air Force II #2423501
    DovinR
    Participant

    Rimmer, please don’t start playing your games if you are really interested in keeping this thread going well. Pakistani military is not the army of the prophet. Your generals are not the defenders of islam, merely of Pakistan. We have more muslims in india and large numbers serving in our military ready to take on pakistan in case of a war. So stop trying to twist a discussion on pak army into something anti-islam. That is a typical troll tactic.

    Pakistan’s foreign policy has been under military control since the beginning. Its decisions and actions are _not_ under civilian control, unlike india where hindu, christian or islamic fundamentalists in the indian army cannot even pee without our elected officials allowing them to. General Sunderji was removed for operation brasstracks, but Musharaff became president after Kargil.

    So it is very much a military issue for india to understand the motivations and thoughts of the pak military establishment. There has been internal purges in Pak military recently to get rid of senior officers sympathetic to taliban. Pak nukes falling into jihadi hands is a very real possibility, which your own heads of state often discuss in public. Its not something I made up. In case that happens, guess who is first in the firing line ?

    You really think rise of islamicists is not a military issue for india and the rest of the world ? Why is USA in Afghanistan and flying drones in pak territory ?

    It may be a distasteful topic for a patriotic pak citizen to face, but for an indian its a reality we have to every day plan and guard against. Rise of islamicists to power is probably the only military issue for india w.r.t pakistan as the ability of pak to capture indian territory (kashmir or elsewhere) is non existent and india has no territorial ambitions on pak.

    IN any case, my reply was to Vikas saying wiping out PAF is a nuclear threshold for Pak, and I wanted to argue that if its hand is forced, India won’t consider that as a red line and would instead see loss of power by current establishment to likes of taliban as the real nuclear threshold. Its difficult not to mention islamicists when that is the key to all military action in and around Pak today.

    in reply to: Pakistan Air Force II #2423541
    DovinR
    Participant

    Likely to be the case. One of the Pakistan’s stated nuclear threshold appears to be the destruction of a major chunk of PAF, and Im not sure how IAF could establish air superiority without that. So, the game might ‘really’ be over in such a case.

    Actually PAK has declared so many red lines, no one is really sure what the real threshold is. However, indians do know pak military well (but not the taliban or the poor masses anymore, so many years after partition). The thought in india (without claiming inside knowledge) is that the current Pak establishment will accept defeat as long as their assets are untouched. However, with increased islamic hold on the military, there is some uncertainty over this.

    So in a nutshell, on one hand india is worried that Pak can be suicidal and india will be ultra careful to push the current pak establishment into a corner where they may lose power, or in case there is a loose cannon amidst them who is a closet islamicist.

    On the other hand, if there is a decision that war is inevitable and we have to launch offensive action into pakistan, then the aim is to make it a brutual assault to get Pak to surrender and then hand power back to the same old establishment under surrender terms (typically loss of some border territory from where india can more effectively monitor terror camps and stop cross overs) who (india believes) will be happy to see their own assets protected and won’t press the nuke trigger.

    The danger is a long drawn out war where the islamicists win the internal power struggle as pak slowly loses terroritory and the current establishment is discredited, before india can take control of the situation. That is really the nuke threshold.

    Hence the cold start and related military purchases. Establishing air supremacy at the earliest is a necessary part of this plan for IAF, if India is to have any chance to pull it off.

    IMVHO, of course.

    in reply to: Report on China's ASBM worth a read i guess #1808042
    DovinR
    Participant

    Your entire argument can be summed up as: A is bigger than B so A can and will always win against B. Unfortunately for you, the world is much, much more complicated than that. Not that it matters, as nobody here is claiming that China is a military equal of the US.

    Actually outright war is quite simple, behind all the sophistry. If A is much much much bigger than B, A can _always_ win. The only thing B can do is to make it cost A more to attack B than take what B is willing to offer on a negotiating table. Giving examples of Vietnam and Iraq is like saying if the attacker gets disgusted with killing countless numbers of the other side for little benefit and withdraws, then its a military success. Its not, its a moral victory, only possible agaisnt democracies with a (belated) conscience. Imagine if Hitler had attacked Iraq or Vietnam. He would have patiently wiped out every one. Expecting enemy to get tired of killing you with your huge population is not a great military strategy.

    I admire many things about China and is not trying to put it down. But China has to demonstrate at least ONE top notch weapons systems of its own before people will believe in the super secret F22 killers and Carrier Group killers. Any request for veracity is met with theories of chinese super wisdom and art of war.

    Capability gap between india and china is a lot less than china and US. By the same argument, China must be ****ting their pants at the indian military might. If you find that funny, then imagine how much funnier it is to think of China scaring US.

    The simple fact is, unlike USSR, China became strong by offering the blood and sweat of chinese workers to make the lives of americans better. Chinese workers get paid far less than fair market rates to provide cheap goods and services to americans, to a total of over $2 trillion. US does not want to lose that, esp in these times. I’m not commenting of the fairness of the system, if it works for both sides, good for them. But, this arrangement is a far far more potent weapon (one which is sharp on both sides) than any mythical super weapons in chinese arsenal. This is what makes US hesitate to paint a target on China in public opinion and go full thrust against them, unlike the cold war. This is why US backs off and downplays incidents when chinese try once in a while to assert themselves militarily.

    On the original topic, It is my opinion that instead of helping the US govt in painting China as a friendly nation to its citizens, while _quietly_ developing military power, if China continues to brag about what a threat it is to US, then US will be forced to focus on containing China and ensuring their overwhelming superiority is retained. It would be wiser to develop real weapons and keep quiet than put out leaks about super weapons.

    I do not believe this ballistic missile threat against Carrier groups will achieve anything other than give USN more budget to acquire even more lethal capabilities (missile shields and stand off weaponry) against China in case of a future disagreement over taiwan. Protection of carrier groups is not merely a defensive action is shooting down incoming stuff, but also offensive action to take out enemy capability to launch.

    Does China really want US to plan which ballistic missile launch centers in China to take out, even at the start of a simple skirmish ?

    in reply to: Report on China's ASBM worth a read i guess #1808100
    DovinR
    Participant

    btw, the Achilles heel of the of the US is Americans can’t take casualties. One American death is equivalent to at least a thousand in scale to the rest of the world.

    No one who knows anything about WWII would think so. In the last 25 years, americans have taken more military casualties worldwide than any other country.

    True, americans place great value on lives of their soldiers. This makes it difficult for their leaders to continue futile wars like in vietnam or iraq beyond a point where the US public is not convinced its for a good reason. It also makes them develop weapons that allow them to wipe out the enemy while reducing their own casualties.

    Try hitting a major US asset or becoming a big enough threat to make the americans feel unsafe in their own homes and you will see how much pain they can take while they ensure the threat is wiped off the face of earth.

    China has been doing a good job of placing itself in american public opinion as the next biggest threat after islamic terrorism – now that USSR is gone.

    As much as I admire China for its economic growth and ability to play hard ball at the global scene, I truly believe they are making a big mistake by being so brash and aggressive militarily with all their neighbors and US.

    Even India which is otherwise a complacent and lazy country in terms of its developmental goals have woken up and is in a race to match Chinese military power only because of the incessant and totally unnecessary threats from China. A decade from now China will have its hands full just managing India, let alone the sole superpower.

    in reply to: Report on China's ASBM worth a read i guess #1808103
    DovinR
    Participant

    Lol, what? If China (or anyone else) managed to take out a CVBG using conventional weapons, what exactly do you expect the US to do? Nuke China?

    Yes. US will nuke or use massive ordnance like daisy cutters to flatten all chinese naval ports. What will China do ? Nuke US mainland and invite retaliation on all Chinese cities which are so far untouched ?

    As I said earlier, two can play at this game. With the level of asymmetry between them, militarily and economically, China will have to blink a lot earlier in the game than USA. It makes sense to be silent and humble _till_ you are ready to reveal you are as strong or more than the adversary. Threatening someone far stronger than you are only makes them focus on you and make sure the gap is never bridged – one way or other.

    USSR used to command equal respect from US because they had a demonstrable and verifiable capablity to match the US hit for hit all the way up the escalation ladder. All China has is the ability to hurt the US a little enough to make US think twice about the cost benefits. As long as keeping China alive is beneficial to US (trade etc) and china does not give any real reason for US to attack, China can pretend to be a great power by spreading myths of sinister and superior weapons.

    If China ever attempts to go one on one against the US on a global scale in every manner possible like USSR did, it won’t last an eye blink. China can’t even make India scared beyond some sabre rattling at the borders. US is way way way beyond.

    That’s the truth, fortunately for the rest of the world.

Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 69 total)