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Snow Monkey

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Viewing 15 posts - 376 through 390 (of 741 total)
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  • in reply to: Small Air Forces Thread #14 #2374252
    Snow Monkey
    Participant

    Anybody have info on a Mongolian MiG-29 purchase? Would they be SMT, or possibly with -35 upgrades?

    in reply to: The much awaited American Airlines order #577876
    Snow Monkey
    Participant

    Interesting they are considering a split order between a A320 NEO and a new 737 version.
    I´d have thought A320/321 NEO for the heavier end, and CS300 at the lower end would have been the most optimal split fleet.
    I´m sure they´re getting a GREAAAT deal from Boeing, though.

    in reply to: Predictions for Boeings Next Move #580490
    Snow Monkey
    Participant

    Airbus has given a specific date that they now forecast A380 to turn a profit.
    I would fully expect them to issue further announcements in this area, as press releases or financial reporting statements.
    Them currently moving from re-couping 50% to 55% of investment over the last year isn`t that note-worthy a press release.

    Re: Open-Rotor engines, check this NK-93 link
    Direct link in Russian, though the commenters provide some clarity in English.
    Basically, they are going thru with development of late-Soviet open-rotor design that doesn`t have an intended platform application, but they plan on using the tech in a different platform around 2020 (improved with carbon fan blades, etc). That could co-incide with their `Ecojet` wide-body (as intended application?), but would also put Russia in a good position to participate in possible Western open-rotor designs to power the A320/737 class replacement. Will be interesting to see how future JVs develop with Russian engine houses. SaM`s 146 product on Superjet is underwhelming, not helped by being late, but that provides an existing JV structure (with Snecma). Saturn has also shown good relations with Pratt, although they were burned by US export restrictions, but I believe SaM points the way forward to JVs in addition to their `fully indigenous` programs. GTF technology similar to Pratt is also within their PD-14 development schedule, so integrating with such an approach will definitely be within their expertise.

    in reply to: Hot Dog Indian AF News and Discussion Part 17 #2382702
    Snow Monkey
    Participant

    Sure thing…
    You`re welcome to disagree that ¨it`s Mk2 version will`not quite` be on par with F-16 Bk. 52, Gripen NG, etc¨, that it ¨certainly will be a one-of-a-kind product by Mk.3/4 (I mean that in a good way)¨ and ¨eventually it should have interesting export possiblities¨.

    Don`t worry, I know it`s too much work to not cut out the rest of the quote 😉

    in reply to: Predictions for Boeings Next Move #581651
    Snow Monkey
    Participant

    Yeah, I was trying to convey that RR is out of the market, but was speculating they may like a way back in, though who knows…
    I was thinking a turbo-prop could have fuel advantages, albeight only viable on shorter runs because of flight speed.

    …I think you`re on to something, that IF Boeing can scale down at least some parts of 787 design with minimum design/qualification work, it could be a cost-effective and lower-risk alternative that could be a good option if it is workable. …We`ll see… 🙂

    in reply to: A320NEO orders – anyone keeping an exact tally? #581654
    Snow Monkey
    Participant

    ARJ apparently has a list price of $30 million, I don`t know how much discount they have been selling them at (the only figure I found was for the GECAS deal for 5bil yuan = $772mil = $30.8mil per plane). Superjet`s list price is $31.8mil, and recent deals with Blue Panorma and the Indonesian carrier have been $30mil for orders of 12 each… To get a ball-park figure of price differences.

    It`s not that I don`t think COMAC can´t under-cut UAC`s MS-21 (who`ve been aggressively cost-optimizing components), it`s just that making assumptions without specific numbers is silly, and whatever the actual purchase price difference is you will want to compare to operating costs, per seat, etc. Obviously that is the case since the price target you mention for MS-21 is otherwise rather close to the actual cost of SSJ.

    Clearly, either of them can beat A320NEO numbers, and I suppose that is what main-stream press cares about most.

    in reply to: Hot Dog Indian AF News and Discussion Part 17 #2382802
    Snow Monkey
    Participant

    So why didnt he just call it 4th Gen? or compare it with a Mirgae 2000, which India has. Pakistan didnt say JF-17 is a F-7+++ or a Mirage 3/5 ++. They went for the the best in their fleet (F-16) and compared their fighter with that.

    Because he doesn`t feel compelled to use internet fanboi dick contests as the determinant of all statements he makes?
    Because besides having used `Generation` terminology on occasion, he doesn`t feel compelled to EXCLUSIVELY use that,
    as opposed to terminology corresponding to a comparison to the platform the Tejas will be directly replacing?
    Because he doesn`t feel compelled to exactly mimic the exact communication strategies of the PAF?

    But what do I know… Perhaps you should write a personal letter to him, and second guess his every word directly.

    in reply to: Russian Aviation thread, part V #2382809
    Snow Monkey
    Participant

    http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2011/06/26/358724/paris-test-success-strengthens-mbdas-pars-3-campaign-for.html

    Altogether not the kind of headline you would expect to find Russian aviation news under, but the article does contain an interesting nugget of related info: the Mi-28N and Ka-52 are being offered with the PARS-3LR in the Indian attack helo competition!

    Yeah, I thought that was an interesting bit of news as well…
    Nobody seemed to pick up on it in the `Indian Missiles` forum, but I wasn`t sure where else to post about it :rolleyes:

    Apparently Ka-52s aren`t being offered against Apache in India, though MBDA could have been unsure of that when they decided to start work on qualifying for both platforms…? I do wonder what other export prospects exist for either the Kamov or Mil (with the PARS3)?

    in reply to: Hot Dog Indian AF News and Discussion Part 17 #2382812
    Snow Monkey
    Participant

    Yes, Tejas Mk.2 seems to be shaping up to `not quite` 4.5 gen ala F-16 Bk. 52, Gripen NG, etc.
    Plans were toned down to reduce risk / development time, certainly it will be a one-of-a-kind product by Mk.3/4.
    (I mean that in a good way)
    I don`t see any problem with it`s capabilities as of Mk.2 with the roll it will play in IAF force structure,
    and hopefully Mk.3+ modifications can be back-ported to Mk.2 fleet as MLUs…
    Eventually it should have interesting export possiblities IMHO.

    in reply to: A320NEO orders – anyone keeping an exact tally? #581672
    Snow Monkey
    Participant

    (re: C919) Simples. 90% of the aircraft for 50% of the cost.

    Well sure, and I can see COMAC offering VEEERY nice deals just to build market share (and cerain discount airlines are extra glad to oblige). But it`s more that I don`t even see that argument being made… Perhaps it`s just the assumption, but it seems reasonable to expound on that assumption, right? …Backing it up with numbers comparison over life-time, etc…

    As a corollary, you don`t see anybody putting good prospects on ARJ. SSJ is UAC`s teething project to develop world-wide support mechanisms and so forth… Based on their experiences there (incl. learning from mistakes, mostly lateness and problems scaling production), I`d expect them to put out a good job with MS-21. Time will tell.

    Re: new Airbus line, they are already doing work in China, and it wouldn`t surprise me to see that expanded. Other locations could work as well, but as somebody mentioned, increasing the full supply chain to match is it`s own undertaking.

    in reply to: Predictions for Boeings Next Move #581677
    Snow Monkey
    Participant

    Well, as already alluded to, Airbus is almost sold out of NEO out to 2020, so it won`t be a matter of competing with them, rather with new entrants like CS300, MS-21, and C919. Current 737 operators are really Boeing`s target market realistically speaking, and emphasizing commonality is the best approach to prevent `defectors`… Though even for new customers, 737 infrastructure can be more convenient when expanding to new routes, etc.

    Leap-X is the best option for transitioning from current CFM engines, and you can see that airlines springing for Leap-X have done so in large part due to good maintenance offers including their `legacy` CFM engines… This would synergize best if current NG`s can be upgraded to `NNG` or whatever it`s called. Alternatively, I wonder if RR could be interested in developing something from their `Next` technology… They have failed to put forward new products in several of the new programs, and could well be interested, especially if there is upgrade market for `legacy` NGs.

    It does look bad for Boeing, and it certainly isn`t a GOOD scenario for them, but I agree with the other posters pointing out that it will be WORSE for them long-term if they go ahead with a new 737 replacement now (though I expect they would go forward with an all-new upgrade before Airbus does, though still around 2020-25). 777 looks to be in a decently good position regards an A350-1000 stretch, and 787 looks to maintain a solid foot-hold just below A350 – this is reflected in the large number of carriers deciding to fly BOTH 787 and A350. Some of the Gulf carrier`s compaints about AB`s proposed A350-1000 stretch and it`s lack of benefit vs. existing 777-300ER should be taken with SOME measure of salt IMHO… That analyses may well hold true for those carrier`s business models, but other carriers (i.e. who don`t have a middle-east hub between europe and asia) could very well find the propsed A350-1000 a decent prospect. Over-all though, 777 with moderate upgrades should be a competitive product.

    Offering something like a shrouded prop-fan, which works better on the shorter routes that 737 tends to excel at vs. A320, would be an interesting option, but since it would probably be in addition to another offering, I`m not sure if it will happen.

    in reply to: Rafale news part XI #2383018
    Snow Monkey
    Participant

    It doesn`t matter. It`s like a stage magician…
    Wave your hands, mumble some BS, and ¡voila! SPARKLY SPARKLY! Now what was the subject again?
    Making ones self feel better thru allegiance and homage to whatever `side` has been chosen?

    in reply to: A320NEO orders – anyone keeping an exact tally? #474177
    Snow Monkey
    Participant

    That `almost full` is based on all the options being 100% converted, I assume…
    Of course, if Airbus are that close to filling out completely to 2020, I`d expect them to open a new line. (China?)
    It does hi-light that it`s not a `game` that any one company is going to win 100% of, because nobody has production capacity to meet 100% of demand. So whatever Boeing does, simply offering a product that can be delivered is something that some customers will need…. And it definitely opens the doors for other competitors like the CS300, MS-21 and C-919.

    (Why is it I see the C-919 mentioned 10x as often as MS-21 in `Western` press, yet never any mention of what it brings to the table, besides the Leap-X engines and unremarkably modern avionics?)

    in reply to: why no close range missile defence for fighters? #2383537
    Snow Monkey
    Participant

    Exactly why I`m talking about reducing NEZ.
    The missiles are already designed for maneuvering, it`s simply a matter of if there is a CIWS threat, it would make sense to introduce end-game evasive maneuver programming… that`s not really a new field of knowledge.

    in reply to: why no close range missile defence for fighters? #2383557
    Snow Monkey
    Participant

    CIWS are standard on naval ships. ASM manufacturers respond with unpredictable jagging maneuvers, which are presumed to be somewhat effective if people still buy ASM missiles… not to mention higher tier SAM defenses to shoot down incoming missiles at larger range (which would be un-necessary if CIWS was so effective). A2A missiles are going to be more maneuverable than ASM missiles. So like I said, such a system could help by effectively reducing the NEZ, only missiles with more energy for effective extreme maneuvers would be able to beat the CIWS (current missiles really have much more maneuvering energy than they need except at edge of NEZ).

    Of course, the response would just be to convert missiles to cluster munition carriers, imparting their velocity to all the sub-munitions which disperse to independently maneuver to target… It doesn`t take much warhead to take out a jet, and you don`t need that much more propellant either, since all of the sub-munitions have the carrier missile`s final velocity, it`s just a matter of independent seeker heads and maneuvering thrusters. On the flip side, the carrier missile itself has alot of design factors simplified since it doesn`t need superb end-game maneuverabiilty itself, it just needs to build up the max velocity by the time it closes.

Viewing 15 posts - 376 through 390 (of 741 total)