Snow MonkeyIn any case, AMCA is currently on hold and will hopefully be replaced by joint Indo-Russian LMFS including engine technology transfer.
An Item 130 derivative should easily out-perform F135 and enable single-engine maintenance economies as well as any commonality with Item 130.
Not to mention spiral development feeding back into improvements to Item 30 itself. Pretty much like thrust variants of commercial turbofans like GTF.
Item 130 is supposed to have provisions for variable bypass, developing that for Item 40 for LMFS and feeding it back into Item 30+ just makes sense.
Snow MonkeyPretty daft idea.
AMCA is wholly superfluous with F-35, if anything it should be superior in many aspects without compromises for STOVL.
“Additional Su-30MKI order to replace MiG-21 in 2015-2020 range.” Uh… what?
“Cancel MRCA as well as Tejas.” So, move to an all medium/heavy fleet. That just doesn’t match IAF doctrine or needs/means.
“F-35C’s could also be acquired for Indian Navy as INS Vishal would be CATOBAR. Or if Indian Navy wants to acquire smaller LHD size carriers, F-35B.”
WTF are you talking about? IN /will/ be inducting CATOBAR carriers. AMCA is supposed to be headed for CATOBAR carriers.
You can’t also start changing IN policy in order to create another ‘plus’ for F-35.
“re: Destruction of the […] capacity to design aircraft, The Indians are doing a good job of this themselves [with] PC-7 Mk IIs and not HAL HTT-40s.”
How does IAF not putting indigenous concerns over present need in one or several cases mean they want to do that in all cases?
If anything, not pursuing indigenous concerns in some past cases increases the pressure to do so in the future,
particularly more cutting edge projects, which HTT-40 is certainly not, and as such is not a particularly important focus of industrial policy.
Going thru with the Tejas program, MMRCA also involving private local companies, FGFA, and eventually AMCA are all core aerospace industrial policy.
It’s pretty clear this whole thread is proceeding from F-35 and rationalizing from there, rather than proceeding from Indian policy and needs.
Does anybody think there is actually more substance than that here?
Snow MonkeyOr if you want to consider a “two story” hangar,
one story with full height for helicopters (also with some fast jets), the other with lower ceiling for fast jets and other planes that fit.
I have no idea if there is any real advantage to that though, vs. simply making a longer/wider carrier for the needed hangar space.
Snow MonkeyHas anybody heard details about Il-112 recently? At one point I thought it looked unlikely to go forward,
with An-148 getting orders/interest from Russia (and MPA versions of An-148/158 still seem likely to go ahead)
But I’ve seen that Il-112 is going forward now, and there is talk of a “passenger version”, which I take to mean civil.
I’m curious what exactly that passenger/civil version would comprise… a stretch? a low-mounted wing to really compete with ATR, Bombardier?
(some of those modifications could very well be relevant for a MPA version, in fact)
I know UAC and Russia were interested in the civil turboprop market, unsuccessfully seeking a collaboration or joint assembly deal with Bombardier…
This is also in the context of India’s program for replacing Avros, apparently also involving EADS and Alenia as competitors for the military transport,
but also specifically aiming for (private sector) involvement in a parallel civil program (via ATR if EADS or Alenia are selected, presumably).
Although it sounds like India may need to change how it hopes to structure those programs, or the required level of localizing production.
Snow MonkeyIs the platform already chosen for that? A330, same as tankers, for a ‘large AEW&C’?
Snow MonkeyThat’s the official story, sure.
Exactly. As long as Carla’s name isn’t brought up, there’s no problem. :rolleyes:
Snow MonkeyI did like this line from Jon Lake on MMRCA:
“For the Indians it’s all about credibility [….] If they believe what the Typhoon consortium told them, then by 2018 Typhoon will do everything that Rafale does now. But they clearly don’t believe it, and I don’t blame them.”
I don’t see any basis in invoking India to make that conclusion, both of them were qualifying contenders (the only qualifying contenders), and Rafale won on L1 basis.
Snow MonkeyNever mind, Airbus really has a solid plan going by the sounds of this…
“Tom Enders has tasked the future top management of Airbus Defence & Space to develop a bottom-up concept, how the business segments can best be integrated and synergies can be realized. We expect to be in a position to provide details in the fourth quarter of this year,” an EADS spokesman said.
:very_drunk:
Astrium and CASA/Airbus Military seem to be running their programs fine, while Cassidian in particular seems the one whose management has been lacking, so putting the same people in charge of radically changing the management of all divisions seems… dubious… CASA was involved in Eurofighter from the beginning, I’m sure they have some understanding on how it would be restructured (in cooperation with BAE and Alenia).
As to what else the article says, it vaguely hints at the possibility of unwinding other Cassidian businesses, specifically EADS’ holding in Atlas Elektronik, but that would seem to go for plenty of other divisions and investments as well, Patria, MBDA, Socata, and possibly the electronics/radar business.
Snow MonkeyI think they’re looking more at Arab coalitions without dwindling NATO/USA help (e.g. look at NATO response to Syria).
There’s other items showing some sort of interest in being able to deploy externally – acquisition of C-17s, UAE is apparently setting up batalion of Western troops for foreign intervention etc.
My point had zero to do with deploying externally, it had to do with deploying independent of the West, of which there is no sign.
Saudi Arabia and UAE alone should be able to steam-roll Syria’s air defense and trigger a full on conventional war in support of their jidahi lackeys. They have not done so.
And that’s why the Omanis and Saudis brought Eurofighters? There’s a lot more that goes into Gulf Arab defence procurement than mere defence requirements – corruption, prestige and garnering political favour rank much higher.
Of course that’s not why they bought them, esp. not Oman, but I’m unaware of why EF has some inherent advantage over Rafale here.
At the end of the day, Rafale still seems to have a price advantage, and EF doesn’t seem to have any objective advantage here.
Supporting a Muslim over a Westerner is good for narrow self interest and especially in terms of propaganda.
But this isn’t even supporting a Muslim over a Westerner, it is supporting another Muslim country’s choice of Western fighter consortium over another.
I think that both the Eurofighter and Rafale are screwed. Western rich buy F-35, whilst rich US aligned Asians buy US aircraft. Russia has its market for both second hand and new build jets.
With MMRCA and India’s follow up orders, and most of Malaysia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and possibly/eventually Brazil, I think Rafale would be doing just fine.
Rafale alone cannot and will not save the French economy on it’s own, and it’s success should not be measured by such an unrealistic yard-stick as how close it comes to total F-35 sales.
The poorer countries are usually happy with second hand F-16s or MiG-29s.
And poor westerners drive used cars. Can these programs achieve an adequate number of exports compared to launch customers and development costs is all that matters.
Snow MonkeyThat one man was the highest French defence official and probabled speaking opinions based on intelligence and diplomatic sources.
The source linked to also stated that Eurofighter was the L1 bidder in MMRCA… 😉
As to other points: 1. Interoperability: The big change for Gulf States is that in the past their defence needs were purely local.
Now they’re looking at expeditionary warfare/intervention – e.g. Qatar and UAE both participated in Libya… Some of these states are also agitating for a Syrian intervention.
And Qatar has had significant differences in foreign policy vs. Saudis and UAE and Kuwait, and vice versa. Including in backing different forces in the region.
Coalition operations is no impediment to them each operating EF and Rafale, those have successfulfully participated in coalition ops (UK/FR:Libya),
and basing/spares could be shared with UK/FR as needed: not really a differentiator in the utility of either platform.
Independent acts of open war outside of US/EU alliance is unlikely for regimes for whom maintaining alliances with foreign colonial powers is central to their self preservation (vs. own populace).
Greater loiter and strike capability including passive countermeasures vs. ground radars …OR… greater A2A capability vs. what high-end threat air force…?
2. Why would they care what India got? India’s procurement processes are so plagued by corruption and bureaucratic innefficiency, that I doubt anyone takes their decisions too seriously.
Is this an argument for why anybody would pay attention to what GCC Sheikdoms are procuring? 🙂
I mean, flat out, these are countries that have not put forth any objective criteria for a prospective jet sale, financial or performance wise.
3. Isn’t the UAE demanding some sort of local production/content (could be wrong)? Whatever the case, UAE hass been pushing development a local arms industry over the last few years.
I believe so, all though none of the other gulf countries would be, and this isn’t really a fundamental distinction between EF and Rafale.
These sheikdoms are hardly ones to act outside of narrow self interest, so following UAE’s lead just to develop UAE’s economy is hardly something to count on.
In Kuwait the Parliament is serious about government oversight, so the plane that is demonstrably more expensive would hardly be the most acceptable option.
4. As per 1 – emphasis on external intervention and in particular anything involving the wider Shia-Sunni slugfest that has become the true driving factor in Middle Eastern politics (Israel on the other hand has become a side issue).
So… greater strike capability including passive countermeasures vs. ground radars vs. greater A2A capability with Iran airforce not remotely up to modern standards…?
I will say that Brazil seems unlikely to manifest Rafale sales at this point, although what they will likely manifest is Mirage 2000 sales, which is something that UAE and Qatar would want to manifest if they inducted new planes to replace their Mirages, and Eurofighter can really do nothing to help on that account, effectively making the deal that much more expensive for Eurofighter.
Snow MonkeyNot quite Rafale related, but I won’t tell if you won’t:
Spain is supposed to be selling 6 Tiger helicopters, apparently they want to sell their HAPs, although those are of course upgrade-able to HAD,
and I’m sure if they had an offer for their future HAD deliveries that allowed them to upgrade the HAPs they would consider that as well…
Would France be in the market for either of those options (cheaper then from Eurocopter), or is there already a fixed contract for all future need of Tigers?
What potential exports are there for Tiger, for which getting a great deal on 6 HAP (upgradeable to HAD) could perhaps sweeten a larger deal?
Snow MonkeyIs it me or they are being incredibly optimistic? From 2016 to 2019 fourty jets for export?!
No, I don’t think so, India needs new jets NOW, and the initial set will be straight off the French production lines, and further production will be transitioning to local production, i.e. still using French components and thus supporting the French economy of scale. IAF is also supposed to need/want an additional tranche for dedicated ‘strategic strike’ in addition to a mooted ‘top up’ of the basic MMRCA order (easy to justify full or heavy French production to achieve legally mandated fleet numbers) … And all of Malaysia/UAE/Qatar/Kuwait would use French production. It is not entirely unplausible for production to rise above levels we have seen so far. And of course, pushing French procurement later into the future means more of those will end up being produced with further upgraded components, increasing the economies of scale for those components, vs. if more Rafale were bought earlier and funds were not available immediately when upgrades are available.
Snow MonkeyThis isn’t any different from what the plan has been for the last several years.
They explicitly state that total procurement numbers are not being reduced, and development of block upgrades continues to plan.
Snow MonkeyWhat it performs? Sry to my german friends, but the kidnapping of aerospace industry by Germany.
Near no tech input since the creation of EADS, but now even space activities will be led from Germany… (kidding of course)
Well, I tried to state things more diplomatically, but that appears to be the case, especially including space activities as well as CASA.
I would hope that the local stake-holders would insist on a no jobs loss policy or guideline for future new hires in agreeing to transfer more management to Munich, which would mean transferring and strengthening other competences in France and Spain.
Snow MonkeyBTW, on the ‘medium’ HS-748 Avro replacement program, I found these stories covering EADS’ bid, I doesn’t go into the civil aspect but details their upgraded C-295:
http://www.newstrackindia.com/newsdetails/2013/06/10/221–Airbus-Military-launches-improved-C295W-transport-for-India-With-Image-.html
https://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=/article-xml/asd_05_30_2013_p01-02-583165.xml&p=1
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