LMFS[USER=”71228″]garryA[/USER]
of course there must be overlapping between the OTH radars, you don’t want an early warning system that loses track of the aggressor 1000 km before reaching your country…
LMFS[USER=”71228″]garryA[/USER]
1. Turkey and Russia have friendly relationships already and reach deals on Syria with Iran, excluding US. They don’t need the S-400 for that. If US doesn’t trust Turkey they should not sell any secrets to them, with or without the missiles.
2. To bring ABM issue in relation with this topic is totally unfortunate IMO. First, no such concern has been voiced by US. Second, the strategic nature of the ABM systems is obviously (is there really any doubt about this?) of critical nature for the national security of Russia, unlike the S-400 for US. On the one hand, the system is not capable for intercepting strategic weapons. On the other, they are not surrounding US ICBM launching sites as it does happen with European and Asian emplacements of US missile shield. Not to talk about the Mk-41 launchers being compatible with nuclear-tipped CMs (or even land-attack versions of SM-3) threatening Russia’s main cities and violating INF. For Russia this is like somebody pressing a gun against your head and asking you to believe it is unloaded. Would you take the risk? They neither…
Anyway, better not to extend further off-topic I think.
LMFSI don’t think anyone would argue that OTH radars can’t detect LO targets (aircraft, cruise missiles) at long range. Does that have tactical implications? Does it negate the employment of LO aircraft?
In other words “who cares?”
Maybe I miss your point, but to me a VLO plane without surprise has lost most of its advantages. Higher frequency radars can be cued in its direction with increased power and reduced noise threshold for increased performance, interceptors can be sent in its direction for identification and even missiles with active seeker can be launched against them. All that is tactically relevant I think…
LMFS[USER=”40269″]FBW[/USER]
this issue with Turkey is a complex topic. Will try to be brief and not go too much off-topic but please excuse some side argumentations that may be necessary
1. As said I was looking for answers to form my opinion on the topic, not disingenuously asking when I have already a formed opinion. US has alleged security (“We would be handing this technology over to the Kremlin if we granted Turkey these planes, and Congress will not stand for it.”) and interoperability concerns to block the sales of F-35 if Turkey buys the S-400 and I wanted to understand them. Answers here were rather vague on the technical side. You say the aim is to avoid Turkey doing business with Russia. But it was even offered to Turkey that buying the S-400 but not operating it would exempt them from consequences. How this matches your explanation is hard to understand for me, since the “business with the enemy” would be done.
2. On an important side note, why so much hatred of Russia to damage your reputation and relationships? Is Russia officially the enemy already? West cultivating this enmity much further will get our families killed and our countries destroyed, just Americans don’t complain when the this inane policy comes to its logical consequence. Russia has said they will not fight again for survival on their own soil, please be wise and don’t take this warning lightly.
3. You try to pass sanctions forced on EU by US (and economically borne by Europe BTW) as if they were genuine and a further justification for US banning the sale to Turkey. This is what I find disingenuous. You know Europeans are mad to see the sanctions go away and restart their businesses with Russia. You know Europeans don’t consider Russia a threat, even after being brainwashed 24/7 for years and know NATO is just a disguise for US military domination of their countries. You know fulfilment of Minsk agreements does not depend on Russia but on Ukraine. You know the whole Crimean case is ridiculous and if the referendum was unjustified and void, then how come the West supported and acknowledged the independence of Kosovo? You know this is geopolitics, not fight for human rights or for respect of international law or whatever crappy excuse we are told. It is about US containing Russia at all costs, period.
4. You say there was talk about other weapons being affected by the ban, ok, it seems that has been again subject in Pentagon report from November. We will see but the Senate NDAA affected the F-35 alone originally if I am not wrong, and quoted the above mentioned security concerns about F-35 technology, be it the reason or just an excuse. I am not 100% aware what this general ban would mean in detail but it could have catastrophic consequences for Turkey’s military and also for NATO as a whole. Seeing India being exempted of CAATSA for being so nice, I assume Turkey can get away with it. They will certainly try so lets see what happens.
5. Regarding industrial consequences, Mattis said that finding alternative suppliers would mean a delay in the production plans from 18 to 24 months:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic…kheed-f-35-ban
Some parts manufactured in Turkey are single source apparently:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic…turkey-problem
Furthermore, they were expected to be main maintenance hub for engines in Europe if I am not wrong. Hence why I consider it a big impact, just in my opinion.
6. Thanks for the information on the nature of the partner nations contracts with US, I was not aware they were so one-sided. I see no breach of contract by Turkey but if penalties are so light as you say then ok, US can cancel the contract. It wont do good to international perception of US as a reliable partner, that is for sure. Will not make Lockheed happy either and on the long term will end up with Turkey fully embracing the Eastern block. I think some compromise will be found, even when you and many others dislike their deeds, Turkey is a very important nation for US.
LMFSExcept they don’t have more to win, no one wants to give tech sensitive equipment to an “allies” who appear that they will have a good relation with your rival. Their concern is easy to understand.
Then Russia should also deny selling the system to Turkey, given they are a NATO country.
Their concern is related to the friendly attitude of Turkey towards Russia or against the S-400 exactly? Your point would mean that Turkey is not a trustworthy ally. On the other hand, they are perfectly ok with them buying Patriots and the rest of the hi-tech catalog, as far as they don’t buy the S-400. So the problem is the weapon itself it seems. A system they were also bitching about in regards of India, even when they buy countless other weapons systems from Russia.
Answering your second question, from what I recall Turkey and Saudi Arabia are (were) staunch US allies. Now Turkey is buying S-400 with the consequences we see and Saudi Arabia is hinting about wanting the system too, though no contract has been signed and it could be more about threatening than about a real buying intention. India was granted waivers to avoid CAATSA sanctions for buying S-400 too, but they were threatened about loosing all military sales of hi-tech products. Look how Israel lobbied against the S-300 in Syria. To me modern Russian SAM systems are perceived as a threat of first order to the Western interventionism and hence both fought by US and sought after by countries that feel threatened. But we can pretend all is normal regarding US reactions to this system.
LMFSWhat??? So, far in 2019 China has purchased 24 Su-35’s and Russia has received 78 of 98 Su-35 on order! Sorry, those are hardly considered “significant numbers”.
Sorry Scooter but what you consider significant is of no relevance. MoD orders according to their needs and that’s it. That includes other fighters you didn’t mention whose roles are covered in USAF by F-22 and F-15, like Su-34, Su-24, Su-30SM and MiG-31
I guess with this approach you will never consider Russia procures Su-57 or any other plane in “real” numbers. How much is exactly “real” or “significant”??
As a matter of fact even Russian Sources freely admit the Su-57 is Semi Stealthy or LO (low observable) vs VLO (very low observable) for the F-22 and F-35.
Would be good if you link those sources
LMFSThis narrative grows increasingly old.
What I try to show FBW is how this destructive “all is crap” attitude can work both ways. Fact-free trolling going on with impunity is not what I think we need in the forum.
Shall we compare the production of the F-22 to the combined production of the Su-35s and the Su-57?
No, not at all. Russia has no global military. They focus in defensive weapons (nuclear deterrence, army and air defence systems) while US focuses in air force, CSGs and foreign bases. This means Russian tactical planes will not be used to attack CONUS but to defend Russia protected by their air defence assets. The reality is they don’t need even a fraction of the air power US tries to maintain. Add to that the fact that they have many specialised models: Su-25, Su-24, Su-34, Su-30, Su-35, some modernized Su-27 plus MiG-31 and 29. That means the air superiority fighters are only a fraction of the total number.
Also, Su-35’s production is far newer than that of F-22 and is still ongoing. But as said I am not trying to go into polemic but to show that everything can be shown in a good or bad light.
When do you postulate the combined production of the Russian 4+ and 5th “generation” should reach the “dubious strategical decision” to produce the F-22? 2025? 2030?
Well, take all Su-30SM + Su-35S + MiG-35 + MiG-29K + Su-57 and you will have around 200 units.But of course the needed quantities are not decided by what America fields or by us here but by MoD alone. This judging whether they field too few or too many and on top of that with utmost certainty about what they can and cannot pay is utterly stupid.
EDIT: I am not saying the development of the F-22 was a dubious strategical decision. But, as a mere example, I will submit that IMO not making it true multi role and forcing the F-35 to be light fighter and bomber at the same time was an error with long lasting consequences. The bigger airframe was the one with the best conditions to carry big&heavy A2G ordnance. There will be of course reasons for this and I am not suggesting US planers are idiots, but fact to me is the result is inconvenient for USAF.
Shall we revisit Russian statements on entry into service and projected contracts for both by 2020? Glass houses.
Exactly, glass houses. Initial numbers for F-22? Expected numbers, cost of the program and unit costs for F-35? Let us be rational and keep the guns down. Every program has issues and also achievements, we cannot brainlessly dismiss the totality and expect to be respected.
LMFS[USER=”77840″]GromOzekA[/USER]:
I welcome your comments on post #772. The happy hour at the PAK-FA bashing party never ends for some people, which then get profoundly offended, even when founded criticism is shown towards anything US does. Anglo-American world and its traditional fake equanimity… as expected.
[USER=”77826″]XB-70[/USER]
– Russians do not provide lowest RCS value but average one, hence the big differences between Western and Russian reports. Against an IAD I doubt the lowest laboratory value is of value, therefore the “tactical relevant” values are considered by them the average ones. I would tend to agree with that, especially if the plane is trying to penetrate a detection network as dense and complex as the Russian one.
– RT and other non-specialized journalists make many mistakes when quoting other people and I prefer not relying on them, so I will keep the tennis ball value in “quarantine”.
– Didn’t find the direct statement of Davidenko (original chief designer of Su-57) but he is quoted as assessing F-22s average RCS at 0.3-0.4 sqm and saying the PAK-FA would be in the same ball park. As expected statements are kept as vague as possible.
https://rostec.ru/en/news/3958/
Russians as you’ll surely know model foreign designs as accurately as possible and test their qualities. I am not an expert in the matter but I assume that, even when only the actual designers know the full details, possibilities and optimal placements of RAM/RAS can be figured out with reasonable accuracy by knowledgeable experts. How good or bad their estimations are will vary from case to case but I take it for a possibility that both Russians and Americans can have reasonably accurate models of each others designs that can be then verified with real world signatures.
[USER=”7524″]paralay[/USER]
even when not 100% official, TASS normally is the agency that “leaks” progress in Russian weapons programs. This is consistent with previous reports about 15 planes going to be ordered within the current state arms program. The dogs bark, but the caravan goes on.
LMFS[USER=”40269″]FBW[/USER]
I cant help it if you find my questions disingenuous, quite honestly cannot care too much. I am sincerely asking (because I don’t want to judge the issue lightly) and all I get is speculation, not even DoD itself clarifies thir concerns. No clear consistent reason apart that F-35 is the best way to press Turkey to avoid deals with Russia, which by the way would constitute hostile meddling in their businesses. May be, but since it puts also risks on the whole program, on a key relationship and so much focus is placed on that particular system, I wonder if this really makes sense. I will tell what I think: if US had more to win than to lose through the operation of both systems together, they would not be bitching so much, whatever the reason they don’t feel comfortable at all, despite gaining access to S-400 intelligence. I also find it shocking that a partner that has paid their bills and done their share can be shown the door unilaterally that way, surely partnership is not what I would call this association and illegal comes to mind to evaluate this decision, though I don’t know the contracts themselves. It is also remarkable how several “allies” of US try to get access to an anti intervention insurance in form of the S-400, and the lengths they go to buy it, essentially pissing off US as hard as it gets… really remarkable indeed. So yes I think there is something weird going on, and no I am not saying it means necessarily that S-400 will bust the F-35’s stealth.
Thanks for the link, when i can i will try to locate the statement i referred before about impact on the program of Turkeys removal.
LMFS@XB-70
I read one official stating that removing Turkey would mean a delay of two years for the production IIRC, that is substantial I would say.
Turkey is deeply involved in many western programs, expelling them would do real harm to their MIC. What about spares for their F-16, can they produce on their own?
True, they cannot substitute the F-35 by themselves, but that would throw them even more in the arms of Russia and China. No doubt Russia would be happy to sell them Su-30s as strike fighters, if Turkey is marginalized by the West.
LMFS[USER=”77826″]XB-70[/USER]
Do you have a source about that statement about the RCS of Su-57? All I have seen is them stating it will be 0.1-0.5 m2, as they assess the average F-22 RCS in real world, tactical relevant values (no mention to frequency though).
Definition of success here is probably F-22, no multi-role and ultra expensive produced at merely 20% of the originally planed units and which failed to substitute the F-15. Its production closed before that of its predecessor btw. Some people really have nerve to mock the PAK-FA, the US 5G being a prime example of mismanagement, budget/opportunity squandering and dubious strategical decisions.
LMFS[USER=”5738″]wilhelm[/USER]
Well seen, this is pure BS direct from the F-16.net echo chamber. The reasonable users there dont engage in this kind of nonsense BTW.
Regarding the photo you posted, that is indeed a single engine aircraft. By the looks of it, unmanned… how old is this?? Very interesting indeed, could be related to several future projects but doubdt that it would be leaked so happily…
LMFS@XB-70:
That makes sense, but why to threaten specifically with the F-35? Turkey is very vulnerable to US cutting military cooperation in general so it would be easy to force them in other ways. And at the same time, F-35’s supply chain and schedule counts on Turkey’s participation so there is in fact a vulnerability of the program towards them. There is still something missing…
LMFS@Scooter:
I am really puzzled about how you and other people determine Su-57 to be a failed development. I tend to see its design philosophy way better than both US 5G fighters and actually quite close to what is being proposed for 6G platforms in terms of long range, AI support, reduced size of keels, smart skins and capability for big internal weapons. Given there are no official technical characteristics and RCS values are stated to be in the ball park of F-22, how do you know it is little more than a Flanker? With no official prices or numbers and given the program continues further without relevant changes, what moves you to say it is dead??
As to Russia buying FC-31as their top fighter, well this would be nothing short of amazing. They don’t buy foreign hardware in general, much less critical one, much less to give up on aerospace industry and much less to others like Chinese, which are still using their engines and buying their planes like Su-35. You really need to be expecting the full collapse of Russia if you think this will happen.
LMFSUS tapping on someone else’s data? Never happened, lets not fall into political incorrectness! You can ignore obvious, elephant size vulnerabilities and differential treatment for Israel and believe everything we are said, I am ok with that. Hope you are ok with other people having other opinion. In any case it is curious that you consider it acceptable for Turkey, or am I understanding wrong?
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