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Schorsch

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  • in reply to: Interception of the cruise missile #2585797
    Schorsch
    Participant

    SAMs are ultimately a pointless weapons system. They are single task, assume you are on the defensive, and are absolutely useless in striking back at your enemy. If you buy planes to shoot down planes, you at least have the option of using those planes to haul bombs at the enemy once you’ve shot down the incoming hostiles.

    Think for a moment how much money the USSR invested in SAM systems. Untold billions of roubles. How many more Su-27s could they have built for the cost of developing all those SAMs?

    You can rise the price-tag for any attacker and it is comperably cheap, especially if you don’t have to finance it. To rely your airspace defense on it has some drawbacks: The UdSSR invested unbelievable amounts in the late 50s. The North Vietnamese at one time got 40% of the Soviet SAM production with the success of an average 1-2% hit rate. To have a tight defense you have to invest incredible amounts of money. GarryB might dispute it, but a low-level SAM system (not the mighty S-300) usable against cruise missiles doesn’t have the bandwidth to fight 30 or 40 incoming missiles at once, especially not if they are going low and therefore reducing the effective range (for detection and tracking) of the system.
    I wouldn’t rate defensive SAM systems as useless. But it is more a strategic weapon to deny the enemy free travel in your airspace. It partly resembles the German Flak in WW2: It always took its toll on the bombers, but it never prevented any attack.

    in reply to: Interception of the cruise missile #2585820
    Schorsch
    Participant

    GarryB,
    read my posts well and you can save your wanna-be wisdom. You retell exactly what I said. That is, that it is better to hide the targets than to build up defense.
    I didn’t say that the cruise missiles come along civil routs, just the 4 B-52. 100km before entering Iranian airspace they let them go, would make 4x 18 cruise missiles with a warning time of less than 5 minutes before crossing the coast line. They could com from Afghanistan, the Indian Ocean, the Persian Gulf or Iraq.

    But the original question was: Can one build up a capable defense against cruise missiles? I say “yes, one can”, but with an unacceptabel price tag. They other question raised is “can one wipe out all strategically important targets by cruise missiles?”. Answer is probably negative, as long as your potential enemy does not line them up nicely. Some basic hiding saves a good amount of your assets. That worked in 1944, too.
    Today it might be more difficult due to constant satellite harassment. A well watching CIA guy might count the cars parked in front of barack #34 and compare them with the cars parked regularly in front of “Ministry of Civil Nuclear Research” :diablo:. That might give him a clue. Otherwise, the guy might just pick up his fionce at the baby milk research lab that is by chance located at barrack #34. :diablo:
    No good idea to be in the baby milk business nowadays. Better do some business that looks definitive from 300km above. :p

    in reply to: Interception of the cruise missile #2586192
    Schorsch
    Participant

    GarryB,
    as always you either don’t want to understand or I didn’t make myself precise enough. I don’t doubt the ability to destroy cruise missiles with MiG-31 and SAM systems (while the S-300 is not really the most cost-efficient system to accomplish it). But, the real disadvantage for the nation that wants to defend against these kind of attacks is that they are less predictable.

    Example:
    In order to have a massive strike on targets without cruise missiles (and let me take Iran as example) you need massive air power. The build-up doesn’t go undetected. You are aware, somehow. Every aircraft can fly just one sortie at a time, you need CAP, AWACS, tankers, SEAD. To have 60 Strike aircraft you’ll need at least 120 aircraft total. More realistic would be 180.

    If you stick to cruise missiles you can deploy a high number of warheads with just half a dozen B-52H (which take-off somewhere sometime and come on normal civil airline routes) and one or two SSNs or modified SSBNs. There is no possibility of being aware, only by closely watching the political “weather forecast”.

    So, in order to defend you need not only good defence in terms of capability, you need the means to defend against 100 targets in a time-frame of 10 minutes. That is clearly unachievable (no matter if you take MiG or F-14). Carrier Battle groups were the only targets with such defense, but only by combining all means at the same time and they were still in need of at least some luck. Of course one can deploy a similar defense for a land-based target. But the disadvantage for a country like Iran is that it has to pay tremendous amounts of money for it.

    And ground units don’t have any electronic capability, from artillery spotting radars to equipment to jam enemy proximity fused artillery… not to mention mobile decoys.

    Cruise missiles against sea targets need radar homing. It can be jammed or confused. A pre-programmed cruise missiles cannot be jammed, only if GPS is jammed. And then they still have INS-guidance with some precision.

    The best way is to build a huge wall (the modern chinese wall) or, my suggestion, make the target big and hard enough. A cruise missiles can succesfully strike dense targets like a “communications center” or a radar station, but a industrial facility strechting over square miles with dozens of building (preferrably made of good concrete) is hard to take out. You don’t need to dig deep.
    Even the American bomb raids on German factories often did not damage the factory too bad. The problem of a cruise missile is that you cannot destroy some targets with a 500kg warhead.

    in reply to: Airbus says A380 wing ruptures in static test #530361
    Schorsch
    Participant

    Are you sure about that?

    I was fairly certain that Quad aircraft wings are inherently heavier that Twin aircraft wings for due to the extra strengthening to accomodate the extra engine on each wing?

    It is the other wayround: structurally it is best to have the numerous engines hanging under the wing. But this is only a structural advantage, taking all factors into account may change the picture.

    in reply to: Airbus says A380 wing ruptures in static test #533914
    Schorsch
    Participant

    failure at 1.46 really ain’t bad……..I think this is better than the 340 static failure tests.

    However, at least it failed where it should fail, and I think, from what I have heard at work, it failed in the expected way.

    That is consistent with my information.

    in reply to: Airbus says A380 wing ruptures in static test #534089
    Schorsch
    Participant

    Is Airbus too honest or is this story bad PR???

    Airbus is very honest in this case.

    The FEM predicted the failure very accurate and actually it failed at something like 1.46. That is normal tolerance of the model. The wing was object of tests before and the structure at the failure spot was already altered due to over-limit-load stresses. They will repair/replace the wing and repeat the test. More a cost issues than an engineering problem.

    in reply to: Interception of the cruise missile #2587664
    Schorsch
    Participant

    Right on both counts – you’re not safe and you’re not deterring anyone with even the fanciest anti-cruise defense network. And even if the AA lethality is very high, the attacker can simply start to mix in large numbers of decoys and other countermeasures to help swamp it. IMO, the better investment for the weaker nation is in precision guided munitions with an eye towards defense via deterrence.

    That is the strategic background of equipping you air force with unimaginable expensive weapons. Scare your enemy and let him know you can hit him anytime anywhere. Of course, there must be something worth defending. Other option for defending is the North Korean approach: They dug lots of military sites deep into the mountain.
    A mandatory thing before having any successful strike is to identify your target. Best way to reduce the effectiveness of cruise missile attack is to build fake factories, put the most important equipment in in the barrack outside the Uranium Enrichement Facility. Plants high trees! After all, these measures are cheap and much more effective than S-300, MiG-31 and all the others.

    @Attendants: Please leave the capability of the MiG-31 out, it would mess this until now pretty interesting thread.

    in reply to: Drag Penalty of External Stores #2587674
    Schorsch
    Participant

    Schorsch I like the image you have when you post (the phantom breaking the sound barrier in a huge cloud). Could you post it on this thread? I really want to download it… if possible of course.

    Don’t have it available full quality. But type “F-4 Phantom sound” in google and you’ll find it. Actually this unveils the informed people out there: the Phantom is not breaking the sound barrier, it is just going high transonic.

    in reply to: Drag Penalty of External Stores #2588034
    Schorsch
    Participant

    Question: what is the general rule/formula for calculating the drag’s effect on an aicraft’s speed (top and cruise), and other performances ?

    Merlock-just curious.

    Drag is a force. If this force is not equalized by thrust there is a resulting force contra your direction of flight. This force leads to a acceleration and finally a speed. That’s simple mechanics, actually not specially related to aerospace.
    The determination of drag and its calculation is ‘une autre chose’.

    in reply to: Interception of the cruise missile #2588361
    Schorsch
    Participant

    A couple of Tunguskas, a couple of Tors or Pantsirs and a few S-300s at the target area should handle quite a few targets at once. Add air power to engage any close range bombers/UAVs, or any jammer aircraft and you can make reasonably hard. Especially if you have the Ballistic missile capability to retaliate at assets belonging to those launching the missiles. In Desert Storm they were running low on cruise missiles… they are not cheap. S-300s are not cheap either, but Pantsirs and Tors are. (The missiles, not the systems).

    – ballistic missiles
    – S-300 systems
    – bunker facilities

    Project this on a potential target like Iran and you quickly see, that defending yourself already makes you a loser because it so expensive. And still is your defensive passive. If it is too good your opponent will try a different way. Investment in such defensive system is always very unproductive because an attacker will not play to your rules (and USAF normally is reasonably clever).

    I was always laughting how some peoples like to use “double thinking” about capability of cruise missiles VS SAM’s. Round goes like this: Reader A says: 30 _subsonic_ cruise missiles will overhelm pretty capable MIG-31 + S-300 + Tor + Tunguska AD system.

    the described defence is very expensive and not even Russia has it in place and available on a daily basis. Even if, they could only defend single areas. Just having SAMs and MiG-31 doesn’t make you safe, the have to be on 24h very short notice alert, which puts high demands on crew and material and finally is very expensive.

    an average carrier group – which, by the way, have MUCH weaker AD than an average army AD network.

    But still lots of advantages: If we think of 1980s, where there was a real threat to CVBGs, the system including all thinkable countermeasures (and keep in mind that a Soviet attack wouldn’t come without clear political and military warning).
    – AWACS allways on station (3x E-3Cs per carrier)
    – long-range interceptor to fight the bombers before launch
    – long-range SAM capability (2x AEGIS with 4 SAM launchers can field 100 missiles in two to three minutes)
    – short-range SAM capability (Sea Sparrow)
    – Close-In Weapon System (CIWS)
    – countermeasures

    Non of these measures is definitive, but together they could fight some attacks (but defence can still be tricked). The carrier group has the advantage of the open sea without any ground interference.

    Having similar measures to defend facilities would be extremely expensive. No country in the world has such capabilities on hand (Russia theoretically could do, US and some NATO countries also, but none of them needs it).

    in reply to: Drag Penalty of External Stores #2588376
    Schorsch
    Participant

    As you probably know, the Swiss AF developed a new AAM pylon for their Hornets.

    The improvements in capability are pretty good if you ask me:

    time to climb to 49000ft at Mach 1.4 carrying 4 AMRAAMs and 2 Sidewinders:

    Hornet with bathtub pylons: 7.5 min
    Hornet with low drag pylon: 5.5 min
    Clean Hornet would be at 4.2 min

    I got this data from a Swiss magazine.

    Found a pic here: http://www.rob.clubkawasaki.com/jas6079.jpg

    2 Minutes sounds rather optimistic. That would mean a very significant drag reduction. I have to check that.

    in reply to: Interception of the cruise missile #2588776
    Schorsch
    Participant

    But consider the problem of right location. In order to have good radar performance you should not go at 40.000ft. 15.000ft are better to give your look-down/shot-down radar less “neck-problems”. Your target is flying at 1.000ft. In this regime the mighty 40km range of most missiles drops to 20km and less . It is maybe wise to launch your missile later because it might lose its target in the ground clutter.

    You will most likely not be positioned between B-52 and uranium enrichement facility, so you have to dash there and will arrive in less than perfect position 🙁 . Maybe the USAF-people were funny 😀 and programmed different and misleading waypoints in their cruise missiles. They will laugh when you run for the wrong one. :p

    After all I see pretty bad chances for somebody to really get rid of all cruise missiles :diablo: . And even if you come close, 4 B-52 at once with 48 cruise missiles don’t bother the USAF. Imagine they jam your radar a little bit at the same time or have five cruise missiles dedicated for your GC-stations 😮 . It’s like somebody once said: the bomber always comes through. In this case it the missiles (which doesn’t mind getting shot down). And it doesn’t have a Norton bomb sight but GPS/IRS guidance 😎 .

    in reply to: Interception of the cruise missile #2588821
    Schorsch
    Participant

    Since cruise missiles are usually subsonic and straight-line flyers, is it possible to intercept them with fighter aircraft. While they usually have low RCS and fly very close to the ground (and thus able to hide in ground clutter), but assuming that this issue can be resolved to some extent, what may be the probability of success.

    I guess the problem is more to be on the right place at the right time. Additionally, you will most of the time deal with a cloud of missiles. Imagine an B-52H attacks a pricy target (for example an uran enrichement complex :diablo: ). It can carry 12 cruise missiles. There are 2 B-52s. They launch all missiles at once and target is expected to be destroyed with 4 cruise missiles reaching it (so, interception of 20 missiles is acceptable). The defense has to deal with 24 targets, going low and subsonic. To intercept at least 20 cruise missiles, you need more than 3 MiG-31, perhaps rather 6 because they can hardly go after them with SRAAMs. How many MiG-31 does anybodt have available? One MiG-31 probably costs the price of all cruise missiles.

    Even SAM will be a little bit stressed out. 24 targets low level, how many missiles are on station and ready?

    So, happy uranium enrichement facility was lucky and all cruise missiles were downed. So what? Mighty USAF sends next B-52H 20 minutes later and look if they can intercept the next 24 Tomahawks.

    That all is a big dollar-burning spectacle, but the guy with most dollars will probably win. Compare to similar scnearios like CVBG against Russian Tu-2x or National Missile Defense.

    Edit: That is not unlike the strategic bomber campaign against Germany. Just change “cruise missile” to “B-17” and “MiG-31” to “Luftwaffe” and adjust the price-tag of the systems.

    in reply to: EJ200 thrust vs. altitude #2588947
    Schorsch
    Participant

    After some serious google-research I found a good source. It provides this kind of grapphs that is described as “modern military engine”. The graph is for full afterburner. One might indicate if the shown figures are wrong or misleading.

    1st: Thrust over Mach and altitude
    2nd: SFC over Mach and altitude

    in reply to: EJ200 thrust vs. altitude #2589144
    Schorsch
    Participant

    Something I actually found on this forum:

    M88-2 SFC of 0.78 TWR of 8.5:1 Pressure Ratio of 24:1

    EJ200 SFC of 0.80 TWR of 9:1 Pressure Ratio of 25:1

    F100-229 SFC of 0.74 TWR of 7.9:1 Pressure ratio of 32:1

    http://forum.keypublishing.co.uk/archive/index.php?t-17525.html

    I would like to know at which altitude and Mach number these SFCs are measured. As all engines have a bypass ratio of about 0.3 to 0.4, the SFC doesn’t change too much over Mach number. In terms of altitude same applies so that we can take it as cruise figure.

Viewing 15 posts - 3,376 through 3,390 (of 3,480 total)