I may be wrong but I understood that the CAA display rules do not permit “passengers” on display flights so any civilian operated fast jet participating in a display is only permitted to have the pilot on board but I presume that there must be provision for other crew members to be onboard provided they are essential for the safe operation of the aircraft.
If any aircraft has a major mechanical failure during a display run I would have thought the chances of a safe return to the airfield would be low regardless of height unless the display run was carried out at a height where spectators would need binoculars to see the aircraft at all. I believe the best option is usually to find a piece of open ground to effect a forced landing and all pilots are trained in forced landing procedures from PPL stage upwards. There will also be instances where some types of mechanical failure will render an aircraft uncontrollable or ony partly controllable which is exactly the reason why display pilots are not allowed to fly towards or over the crowd.
Unfortunately there will be instances where, for all sorts of reasons, recovery will be impossible regardless of the altitude available.
It may be possible to make a best guess as to where an aircraft may end up but as they operate in 3 dimensions it is impossible to cover evey possible scenario. There is only one way to make an aeroplane almost completely safe and that is to leave it on the ground and even then it could catch fire, taxy into something or even hit something whilst being towed.
Modern airshows in the UK probably have the most stringent operating rules ever and for the most part they seem to work very well but by the law of averages things will always go wrong occassionally and no risk assessment can cover every eventuality. There must be a significantly higher, more diverse, number of vintage/classic aeroplanes operating now than in the 1970’s but we have far fewer serious accidents and far better support services available to ensure high standards of repair and maintenance. What we do have is a far more comprehensive media coverage so that far more people are aware of evey incident. No one could possibly have predicted this accident or that which befell the Gnat Team. Both aircraft were owned and operated by responsible organisations and at the end of the day the owners wouldn’t have put a pilot in charge if they didn’t feel he was competent and while some pilots may be prepared to fly more challenging aircraft I am sure none of them would contemplate flying anything that they believed was likely to cause them or anyone else any harm.
Given time we will have an AAIB report that gives the cause of the accident and I expect that the CAA will, quite rightly, review operating procedures for airshows.
CAP 632 tells you the CAA requirements on operating PtF Ex Military Jets. It is comprehensive on what and how private operators have to and are expected to do to operate ex military FJs.. It even mentions about forced landings too.
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