Something no one seem to be taking note of is the operational environment that these Aegis DDGs are supposed to be operating in.
For optimal effect, the DDGs would have to be somewhere in the straits in order to get a decent chance to intercept any SRBMs. The problem with that scenario is that PLA AShMs have ranges well in excess of the width of the straits, and its not like these DDGs are likely to be hard to spot and target at those ranges.
You place the DDGs in the straits and they are as good as dead, and they will be unlikely to have played any meaningful role before they got vaporised. You put them on the other side of the island and their missile defense capacities would be greatly reduced since they would not be able to intercept the incoming missiles at the flight stage the missiles were designed for.
If Taiwan gets the Aegis, it will not be for its SM3 capacity, but rather its radar and C&C gear, to allow them to have a powerful and surviverable sensor and command platform that could help to direct the war effort in the very likely scenario that all fixed land based sensor and command instillations would have been destroyed or badly degraded in the opening stages of a war with China.
Having a carrier, even a small one with STOVL F35s would also greatly enhance Taiwan’s defensive capabilities as it would allow them to retain an air force for longer, and could potentially force the PLA to have to come out and hunt down the carrier or risk heavy losses to the invasion force, which = delay.
Taiwan’s Achilles’ heal is its total lack of strategic depth, meaning nowhere is safe from attack. A carrier or two would give them that much needed breathing room and also make the odds of a successful PLA surprise attack longer since the PLA can’t be sure of being able to kill the carriers in the opening stages of a war.
If I was in charge of Taiwan’s defenses, a carrier or two would be high on my wish list, even higher then F16s or any other non-STOVL land based plane because those planes are worse then useless without runways to operate from.
Anyways, to recap, I think that Taiwan’s military is starting to accept the changing balance of power and are realizing that it is futile to try and match the PLA like for like. Especially in things like missile defense, as it is almost certainly going to be more expansive to defend against missiles then it is to attack with them = a hopeless situation for Taiwan.
If they are seriously considering Aegis, then it should be about long term game plan as opposed to an all-or-nothing gamble at the start of a war. The idea should be to maintain a functional defense for as long as possible and hope the US decide to get involve and can do so in time as opposed to trying to stop every single one of the PLA’s hundreds if not thousands of SRBMs that are going to be fired at Taiwan in the event of war.
The new F-16s are for replacing the trouble prone F-5s now and possibly the Mirage 2000-5 in the near future. Its a logical choice given the fact that F-35 won’t be operational any time soon.
Interesting fact is Taiwan was looking into getting some Harriers so SVTOL maybe high on the list but delayed due to the lack of a suitable candidate.
A better buy for Taiwan as opposed to the Aegis would be more La fayettes en mass to reduce the per unit price. They are already familliar with the ship plus Taiwan have the choice of fitting domestic AShM as opposed to expensive imports.
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