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hallo84

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  • in reply to: Mig-21PF and Chinese J-7 #2546243
    hallo84
    Participant

    I don’t know much about how the Chinese determine “The real PLAAF 14045, which I presume is the 5th plane, 4th Regiment, 3rd Division”. Do they start from right to left and if so how did you get 3rd Division? Could you please give me a breakdown on their number system?

    According to Crobato
    you take 14045 where the 14 means division number after you minus 11. 14-11=3 so you get 3rd division.
    14045 means 4th Regiment
    1445 is the unit number

    in reply to: Chinese Su-27s their cooproduction status #2546510
    hallo84
    Participant

    Can you translate this Tphuang?

    It seems to be focused on the MKI from AI-07.

    Thanks

    Nothing much just outlines HAL, Sukhoi colaberation. 65 MKI orders confirmed.
    Sukhoi have no idea the porgress of J-11B production.
    While sukoi can not have gained through J-11B, they can with HAL.
    2004-2005 2 MKI assembled. 2005-2006 6 assembled. 2006-march 2007 13 assembled. indiginization of parts at 80% after 2009 they hoped to be 100%
    indiginized but recently India considered ordering parts for Hydraulic systems as local production would be too expensive. Indian media reported the possibility of increasing the payment by 350 million to include parts. 2008 will also produce 13 MKI. Total production will cease in 2014, 3 years ahead od schedual.

    in reply to: Chinese Su-27s their cooproduction status #2505874
    hallo84
    Participant

    To be honest with you i see a possibility you are right and perhaps i am wrong because i need a Russian report but i am not totally convinced of that until i read a Russian document saying China builds J-11Bs from kits build locally in China

    LOL like that’s even going to happen.

    No russian company or media will issues a reports that says my dick is small…

    hallo84
    Participant

    Thats because it uses a cold launch system.

    Heh no one has yet to see the HQ-16. Everything is still assumption.

    Thanks to hyper for the new pics.
    Hyperwarps’ latest pic shows what looks to me like hinged centerline exaust vent.

    TThis mean the HQ-16 could very well be a hot launch missile.

    in reply to: Just how effective is the Su-30MK2??? #2509911
    hallo84
    Participant

    Su-30MK2 export price is some where $60 to $65M. It went up in 2004/2005 period. Add to that expensive new PGMs not the soviet era refurbished stock. Pilot training/Spares from Russia are another expensive thing.
    I will not be surprized with 70 to $80m for Su-35 in 2007. which is clearly above most third world country willing to pay. Not idea of JH-7 but lets imagine twice of FC-1 like $30M.

    If capability increase will sufficiently justify the cost invloved (I highly doubt). The fact remains PLAAF or PLANAF have domestic choices that can effectively cover all capabilities the MK2 can offer.

    It also hurt the MK2 when new PGM and avionics development could not keep up with PLA demand while chinese domestic systems are already deployable.

    With the introduction of J-11B model I doubt we’ll ever see another big ticket purchase flankers from China.

    in reply to: Just how effective is the Su-30MK2??? #2509942
    hallo84
    Participant

    I think Crobato made a good point on the all Russian content of the MK2 for Venezuela, these days they certainly are not making too many friends (or at least with the US which has far reaching influence).

    But back to what I said about the MK2 being less complex, thus faster to produce. I was also under the impression that since IAPO is busy with Malaysian, Indian, etc orders, and KnAAPO receiving less orders from China.. buying an MK2 would result in it being delivered faster in order for Chavez to make a statement (or at least to give Venezuela something until a better Flanker, etc becomes an option for them).

    People keep saying the MK2 Venezuela paid for is expensive, I was wonderng what the price is ??

    Correction KnAAPO isn’t receiving any orders from China. THis has gone on for quite some time now.
    Seems PLANAF is unimpressed with the thing as all follow up orders were cancelled. I suspect the MK2 does not offer any real improvements over the MKK and thus the chinese feel cheated…

    hallo84
    Participant

    No exaust vents to indicate if it’s a hot launch system?

    in reply to: Taiwan RoCAF fighters Takeoff/landing on highway! #2520687
    hallo84
    Participant

    J-STAR did participate in Desert Storm, and was part of the SCUD hunt. They were in much limited use in ODS than OIF, but they were in it.

    LOL back tracking are we?

    First you claimed PLAAF can not achieve the same results as USAF did in GF1 (i.e. “J-STAR equivalent in large scale operation deployment”).
    But the fact is USAF only had 2 JSATRS in limited operations.

    Look at PLA’s MRs and force in the Taiwan Strait area. Then look at the history of the amphibious warfare and the logistics involved. If by then it is still not clear why mobilization is necessary for a full-scale amphibious invasion, don’t bother showing up in military forums.

    What amphibious warfare history? I wasn’t aware that PLA or PLAN had any. You have nothing to compare to aside from 1950s statics of the million man swim. Are you seriously suggesting that a PLA invasion will still end up on a march across the sea? I’m sorry but you are just going out of limb on this one.

    BTW we have seen the effect and extent of PLA mobilization speed in northern sword exercise.

    “Local War Under Hi-Tech Conditions” or its newer version “Local War Under Informationalized Conditions” does not make Air Power to be the main and sole instrument of warfare in PLA’s eyes. Air power is necessary, but never sufficient to win wars in PLA’s doctrine. PLA studied Desert Storm, but also studied Kosovo and the cost of holding ground force back. PLA invasion force needs to go in as soon as air defense is neutralized, certainly not waiting to mobilize attack force after air power attacks run the course..

    Which really means that If PLA is focused on an decisive invasion of the Island pronto before involvment of USA. It does not mean that PLAAF would not be spear heading the attack. It also does not mean that suicide landing attemps will be undertaken.

    PLA historically did not rely on air power but in the Taiwan scenerio this may not be the case. As artillery support can not be established until the troops land PLA may have no choice but to work with PLAAF. This is the reason why Joint ops is so much the deal in PLA training.

    During wartime, assets of Second Artillery will be under direct control of the war commander. To PLA, there is no “preferable” weapon. Aircraft or artillery, it doesn’t matter as long as it achieves the objective of a fast victory.

    I’m sorry I don’t think you have any clue as to what you are talking about. Second artillery is independant from PLA no matter the situation and tactical SSM does not belong to 2nd Art.

    Emphasizing the importance of adaptability during wartime does not make military planning obsolete, and it is not an excuse to be unprepared. Tactical deception is good, but it does not dictate the overall Grand Strategy. If the situation demands it, PLA will act.

    PLA will act regardless of being prepared or not but that is besides the matter. In fact what you are saying is that becuase PLA is good at adapting it will for go military planning. This is just absurd and you know it. If Korea,1962 and 1979 showed you anything, then you would’ve seen that PLA knows their limits. Military planning is essential to massive coordinated attacks. Logistics is much better than it ever was, the proof is the establishment of NCO corps and their involvement in logistic support.

    in reply to: Taiwan RoCAF fighters Takeoff/landing on highway! #2521264
    hallo84
    Participant

    why are we being diverted off topic with the question of Beidou system which has nothing to do with either Taiwanese jets?

    FYI Beidou is already a operational system in PLA there are not only regiment issue large box units but also small hand held units as well. So in all respect I don’t think this is an issue anymore even tough this has no relevance to the topic at hand

    http://i15.tinypic.com/673wyur.jpg
    http://i16.tinypic.com/4pu0fnr.jpg

    in reply to: Chinese News, Photos, and Speculation #10 #2523660
    hallo84
    Participant

    Great article and an informative read.

    China’s War Chest
    http://www.sinodaily.com/reports/China_War_Chest_999.html
    by Martin Walker
    UPI Editor Emeritus
    Washington (UPI) May 23, 2007

    “So a fleet of 10 state-of-the-art CVN-21 carriers with their warplane, crew and task force support could be had for about the $300 billion that China is planning to invest — not counting the savings that Chinese manufacturing techniques and labor costs would bring. So China could in theory afford to challenge the traditional U.S. naval dominance in the Pacific Ocean.”

    With more than $1,200 billion in U.S. dollars, T-bills and securities in its piggy bank, China has been losing money as the value of the dollar has fallen against the euro.
    This helps explain that startling announcement last week that China is planning to launch a state investment fund that would seek better returns on its money. It plans to start by investing in stocks and private capital funds like the Blackstone group, which this week announced the infusion of $3 billion of China’s massive hoard of cash.

    Put this into perspective. At current market values, China’s $300 billion fund could buy the whole of Wal-Mart, and still have enough left over to buy the Big Three American car makers: Ford, GM and Chrysler. Or it could buy British oil giant BP and still have enough left over to buy Germany’s Siemens. If China wanted to put all its $1.2 trillion into stocks, it could buy Exxon-Mobil, Shell and BP and still have enough left to buy Wal-Mart.

    Or China could put some of the money into its defense budget, buy aircraft carriers and challenge the traditional U.S. dominance of the seas. The standard U.S. Nimitz-style carriers cost around $6 billion each, and America’s next generation CVN-21 carriers will cost about double that sum. Then there will be the cost of the warplanes, training the crews, and the other surface vessels in the standard task force that support and protect the carrier.

    So a fleet of 10 state-of-the-art CVN-21 carriers with their warplane, crew and task force support could be had for about the $300 billion that China is planning to invest — not counting the savings that Chinese manufacturing techniques and labor costs would bring. So China could in theory afford to challenge the traditional U.S. naval dominance in the Pacific Ocean.

    Were it to choose to do so, it seems they would have a helping hand from the U.S. Navy. Adm. Tim Keating, who now runs the Pacific Command and used to serve on the carrier Nimitz, has just completed a five-day friendly visit to China. And at a lunch with Vice Adm. Wu Shengli, commander of China’s navy, Keating stressed the difficulty and complexity of developing, building and operating an aircraft carrier. But at his news conference the following day, Keating said the United States would be willing to help if that is what China decides to do.

    “It is not an area where we would want any tension to arise unnecessarily,” he said. “And we would, if they choose to develop (an aircraft carrier program) help them to the degree that they seek and the degree that we’re capable, in developing their programs.”

    The immediate response from many armchair strategists was to wonder if Admiral Keating had taken leave of his senses. Why would the U.S. Navy want to help a potential challenger for the control of the seas?

    And yet the immediate Chinese response was very cautious. Maj. Gen. Yang Chunchang of China’s Academy of Military Sciences told the Chinese-run Hong Kong daily, Wen Wei Po, that he “was concerned about (the implications of) Keating’s remarks.” Chinese strategists are wary of U.S. plans to infiltrate China’s military machine and gather intelligence through joint exercises and exchange visits.

    U.S. Navy officials have been thinking about China’s plans for an aircraft carrier for more than a decade, since China first began talks with Russia about buying one of their small and obsolete carriers, so that they could start the long climb up the learning curve of naval aviation.

    There is a school of American thought that would actually welcome a massive Chinese investment in aircraft carriers, on the grounds that it would take them as long as 20 years to be able to build the ships and aircraft, train the crews, and learn the tactics of operating carriers, and they would be very hard put to catch up with the U.S. Navy’s 80 years of experience. (The U.S. Navy paid a stiff price for a similar over-confidence regarding another Asian fleet back on Dec. 7, 1941.)

    Others maintain that luring China into building such a navy would be a clever fiscal trap that would overwhelm and distort the Chinese defense budget for decades to come, and simply offer some very fat targets for the U.S. advantage in stealthy hunter-killer submarines. There is also a view that in the age of stealthy submarines and super-fast torpedoes like the Russian Skval and precision-guided weapons, big aircraft carriers are already obsolete.

    Maybe. But do not forget that China has already put men into space, and earlier this year a Chinese anti-satellite weapon knocked out an obsolete satellite orbiting high above the earth. The Chinese may be technologically behind the United States, but they are evidently catching up fast.

    And the argument that building a carrier fleet would bust the Chinese budget looks very thin against the potential tsunami of dollars that Beijing is planning to pour into the world’s financial markets. If the Beijing government decides that a carrier fleet is in the national interest, and that China’s strategic goals require the ability to control its own waters and the key shipping lanes and oil tanker routes, they can certainly afford it. And there would be no more visible symbol of China’s new role as a great power than a carrier fleet that embodies a challenge to America’s command of the seas.

    We have, of course, been here before, at the beginning of the 20th century when Kaiser Wilhelm’s Germany decided to build a High Seas Fleet that could challenge Britain’s dominance of the seas. The subsequent arms race as each side vied to produce more and more Dreadnought-type heavy battleships played an important role in the escalation of tensions that helped bring about the First World War.

    This time, we have a third candidate for the new naval arms race. Indian Defense Minister A.K. Antony told his country’s parliament last week that India plans to have three carriers on the seas by 2017. They already operate the Virar, bought from Britain (where it was known as HMS Hermes), and are currently refurbishing the former Soviet carrier Admiral Gorshkov. India is also now building at Cochin its own new 41,000-ton carrier, designed to carry Russian-designed Mig-29s.

    But remembering the cost of all this, it should be emphasized that China’s current account surplus grew by $136 billion in the first three months of this year. At that rate, they could afford to build a 10-carrier fleet with just half of this year’s surplus. And last week, Credit Suisse estimated that China’s total war chest, or rather its total reserves, could hit $2 trillion, or $2,000 billion, by the end of next year.

    As China decides whether it wants to take the risk of challenging the United States for the command of the seas, or even just for the command of the waters around Taiwan, money will be no object.

    in reply to: Taiwan RoCAF fighters Takeoff/landing on highway! #2524707
    hallo84
    Participant

    Operation Desert Storm’s initial assaults on the centers of gravity and the air defense systems all heavily relied on Cruise missiles and PGM, particularly those that carried by stealth fighters. The opening phase is hardly “fought with dumb bombs”. If PLAAF wants to conduct a slow war that achieves victory through inaccurate carpet-bombing, then the number of PGM is not a problem at all. However everyone knows that’s not PLA’s goal.

    I’m sorry but maybe you should recheck your facts. The B-2s avoided any and all possible AD cover. Most SEAD missions are still conducted by the F-16s.
    If anything the B-2 was only used as glorified bomb trucks. Staying well out of NEZ of AD cover is what saved these pilots.

    Not destroying all enemy aircrafts in one hit is not “the worst possible scenario”, it is in fact the norm. The Six-Day War stands out precisely because it is very different from other wars such as India-Pakistan War of 1971, Iran-Iraq War, Ethiopia-Eritrea war etc.

    But in all your examples none of which were examples where one side enjoy tactical and numerical superiority to the other side.

    I don’t want to argue about how much “better” is PLAAF in a long debate. There is no need to discuss the actual quantity of PLAAF’s PGM stock or do a quality comparison (which are both difficult to do anyway). Looking at support infrastructure alone, we could see PLAAF has not yet reached the Allied force level during Operation Desert Storm. I estimate that will take another five years.

    Sure USAF had 60km JSOW during GW1…
    Btw PLA logistics have evolved quite rapidly during the last few decades. Support elements are now organic to brigade or division level. C3 is much more organized. We have seen official reports of Joint exercises involving multiple dicipline of forces. The very fact the PLAAF support units are already organic to PLA ground forces blows you theory to shreds.

    As for ground assets being “easy to spot and track”, wait till PLAAF has J-STAR equivalent in large scale operation deployment to make such boast. Even with such Air to Ground surveillance assets, no one ever claim it is “easy”.

    spotting ground assets isn’t solely limited to SAR equiped planes. There are much more options. Anyways USAF fought GW1 without any JSTARS. PLA already knows how to fight with what you have not what you want.

    in reply to: S-400 How to defeat the new Russian ADF System? #2524941
    hallo84
    Participant

    I say we take off and nuke the entire site from orbit. It’s the only way to be sure.

    Why not pre-emp terrorist movement and nuke the site to prevent them getting their hands on the weapon that may become a threat to american sir assets.

    in reply to: Taiwan RoCAF fighters Takeoff/landing on highway! #2527635
    hallo84
    Participant

    Dividers will be removed ahead of the time. PLA already knows all the possible strips, the removal would not be a warning. When a war is likely is occur, all usable highways will be prepped regardless of which ones ROCAF intends to use.

    SRBM must be launched in waves because the launcher number is not unlimited. Every additional missile against the highway strips is one that cannot be used in the first wave (the big words “opportunity cost” is a good reminder), and the first wave is the most vital.

    All this merely for the cost of sweeping to force PLA either diverting the attack or manufacturing more missiles/launchers. Fighters must conduct trainings and exercises anyway, so these aren’t “additional” costs. If they don’t fly and land at the highway, they would still need to do it elsewhere. As for the economical cost, it’s only a few days per year for the national security. Taking the local expressway for several exits is no big deal. “Crowd pleasers” is also good for the local economy.
    PLAAF won’t be so arrogant to think “One J7 can take out an entire line of F16/M2k/FCK1s with just its guns on one pass!” There is a little something call Surface-to-Air Missiles system, perhaps people have heard of it? Unlike the amateurs here (whose only apparent goal is to bash), PLA takes military planning very seriously.
    The use of highway is not going to solve the fundamental problem that ROCAF has to face, Taiwan’s missile defense is neither ready nor cost effective. Until F-35 enters ROCAF service (if it does), all measures are short-term patches at best. However, it is really pointless to go out of the way to use biased personal views to argue that the exercise is useless. This thread’s sole purpose was to share the picture and video, so take the trolling and boring political opinions elsewhere.

    People who do real military analysis will notice something else. This is not really about the very basic aircraft landing itself, since that was already done previously. Instead, the real news is that the logistics team from the F-CK-1 base has demonstrated that it could support different aircrafts effectively. The real exercise was to test ROCAF’s ability to re-supply and operate in unfamiliar environment. Another thing to check is the preparation time for the sorties, which could serve as a basis for estimating ROCAF’s aircraft turnaround rate.

    The real shortcomings of the annual exercise aren’t the successful landings, but the missiles missing targets and the F-5 crashing.

    Dividers will never be removed ahead of the time unless if Taiwan decides to shut down all traffic for good. Even in preparation or prolonged war this will not happen as supply will still need to flow. A high way with no dividers is just asking for fatal crashes. Plus the removal would only involve strips that are being prepared for landings since a complete removal is quite illogical and time costly. Unless taiwan has the initiative in war, the decision to remove dividers will only come after military targets are struck. Hence they will become logical next targets for PLAAF or 2nd Art.

    PLA does takes military planning very seriously, but what do that have to do with the fact that landing on highways isn’t a serious issue for Taiwan? BTW none of the current taiwanese SAM systems have the capability to deal with 2nd gen PLA BMs which are developed with terminal menuvering in mind.

    Why would ROCAF want to test its ability to re-supply and operate in unfamiliar environment? Unlike the USAF who have to operate half way around the world, ROCAF will only operate in Taiwan. If landing on Highway is illogical tactics then the fact that they can support the planes becomes moot.

    If they wanted to check preparation time for the sorties then the result is pretty patetic due to the fact that you have to add the hours of time spent on preparing the highways.

    When we see a lemon we should call it same goes for PLAAF and their trouble of not issuing enough flight hours.

    in reply to: Taiwan RoCAF fighters Takeoff/landing on highway! #2527735
    hallo84
    Participant

    who cares what your analysis of this whole situation is- its their money, their tactics and their planning for an eventuality- for you to come along stringing a “stunt” theory and calling this all a waste of time and money is pretty remarkable ! :rolleyes: of course they dont have anything better to do than to tear dividers apart and get multimillion $ jets streaming across highways for attracting crowds..what a novel way to recruit new kids and get some much needed PR, is’nt it !? and the tactical use of such ops ? or the possibility that such training could come in use someday ? zilch since you said so, O Great One.

    your nationality has a lot to do with the “holier than thou” attitude you’re displaying and it obviously does’nt go down well that they’re trying to work out different tactics for some eventuality ..”stunt” and “ulterior motives” indeed..:rolleyes:

    LOL it you pay the slightest attention to Taiwan politics you’d have figured out why we are criticizing it.

    Evertime when the government support dwindles due to domestic unrest (ie. scandles now involing all members of the first family), president Chen pulls some anti-china retoric and backs that up with a military show of force to divert public attention.
    What they should’ve been doing is more regiment level tactical menuvres and joint-op but instead we keep seeing crowd pleasing acts of shelling the empty horizons or landing planes on highways. Those officers that dare voice objectionsare subsequently replaced. In essence Taiwan have already fallen into this weird vicious circle.

    Using tax money to forward ones’ political agenda does’t constitute as wasteful to you?

    in reply to: Chinese News, Photos, and Speculation #10 #2527740
    hallo84
    Participant

    MKI is certified for 6000hrs. This whole report is dubious. Just look at weight savings of 700kg with composites. If u put newer avionics u alone can lose 1000kg. and no one reveals RCS reduction measures. I doubt it has 12 weopon stations like Su-30 or 14 like Su-35.

    It’s a Janes report. Take it as it is. We only analyze what’s provided to us with pics or other known tid bits and not make up fictitious claims of newer avionics can lose 1000kg which you obviously have no way of knowing.

    Plus your misconceptions about the J-11B has no relevance what so ever.

    My suggestion is read more before blabbering crap.

Viewing 15 posts - 196 through 210 (of 776 total)