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alexz

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Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 276 total)
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  • in reply to: Philippine Air Force Horizon 2 Project #2178147
    alexz
    Participant

    If you discuss other air forces, slovak or the baltic countries for example, probably the gripen c is the best option for them.

    But right now it is about the specific needs of the philippines, it already fields the FA-50, has no other existing multi role fighters (unlike thailand for example), needs something with good legs over maritime areas such as the spratlys. Dont have the budget to go for gripen e, or even new f-16v. Is the gripen c a good choice for them?

    in reply to: Philippine Air Force Horizon 2 Project #2178187
    alexz
    Participant

    The issue is that the gripen c costing was compared with F-16, FA-18, typhoon and rafale, but gripen fans took it for cheaper than everything including golden eagles.

    You can compare the current gripen c being offered, and the current F-16, whether it is upgraded or brand new. IMO the only advantage of gripen c for now is the integration of the Meteor missile.

    in reply to: Philippine Air Force Horizon 2 Project #2178252
    alexz
    Participant

    What I am saying is that the performance delta between FA-50 and gripen c is small, while the price delta is twice as much.

    There is no F-50 because they concluded that modifying the airframe to remove the second seat does not give a major performance difference compared to just leaving it in place. Others like the MiG-35, Hornets (only different canopies), super tucano all have common airframe between single and two seaters.

    Gripen is sold as a frugal fighter, some fans say it is even more frugal than the FA-50, but KAI already said the FA-50 is 1/3 the operating cost of gripen c to botswana.

    In the philippines case, they already have the FA-50, so it is better for them to get a MRF fighter with a bigger performance delta compared to the FA-50, especially range to fly over maritime areas. They also have a very limited budget, so what they need to find is the highest performance fighter they can get for their budget. If they want to save money later, they can fly their FA-50 more and MRF less (to minimum nato standards that is), easy.

    Okay lets forget about the FA-50, as it is unrelated to the MRF anyway. Lets compare the gripen c with F-16, as that is the logical contender for the MRF. Is the gripen c better than the F-16?

    in reply to: Eurofighter Typhoon discussion and news 2015 #2179129
    alexz
    Participant

    Actually IMO it would cost less to maintain those tornados past 2025 as germany could buy off all the surplus spares for chips and get retired airframes for christmas trees. The main problem is mitigating obsolescence issues. If germany is content to fly them as is in 2030 then it would not be a problem.

    in reply to: Philippine Air Force Horizon 2 Project #2179140
    alexz
    Participant

    TA-50 is a LIFT.

    FA-50 is a fighter, in service with ROKAF as a F-5E replacement, with systems like link-16 datalink that other LIFT platforms dont have.

    The golden eagle platform is designed from day 1 for fighter performance. It was designed to be a high performance trainer to replace the capability of thr T-38 talon. Do people put down F-5 fighter credentials due to its commonality with the T-38?

    Is the gripen ericsson ps05/a radar much better than the elta elm-2032? Is the difference of 200lbf dry and 400lbf afterburning thrust in engine power significant? Can all those heavier weapons load be carried to max range? Is the gripen capable of carrying a respectable weapons load to a similar range of a F-16 for example?

    Now with multitude of upgrades available for the F-16, and for a force already having the FA-50, why would you go for a gripen c?

    in reply to: Philippine Air Force Horizon 2 Project #2179324
    alexz
    Participant

    Ananda, i understand that you are from Indonesia,

    Define “huge” upgrade to FA-50 and care to comment on the Gripen C evaluation by Switzerland?

    http://kovy.free.fr/temp/rafale/pdf/12332.pdf

    I don’t have any illusion that the FA-50 is just a lightweight fighter, but a lot of people have an illusion that the Gripen C is not a lightweight fighter and is better than a Hornet or a Viper. PAF is not going to have FA-50 as its MRF anyway as it is already choosen for the SAA/LIFT platform. Even if KAI builds the F-50, it would still be a lightweight fighter, not in the same league as Hornets, Vipers and such.

    in reply to: Philippine Air Force Horizon 2 Project #2179440
    alexz
    Participant

    The Philippines has just signed for 16 Bell 412EPI helicopters for 233.36 million usd. So probably this is the 1st contract for PAF in Horizon 2.

    https://twitter.com/BellHelicopter/status/960749222956945413/photo/1

    in reply to: Philippine Air Force Horizon 2 Project #2184373
    alexz
    Participant

    I am absolutely not making your point.

    I don’t quote the FAB contract as the FAB gripen e does not take into consideration the final cost with the 25 year loan by saab that is needed to pay off the program. Saab sales has already put the 25 year loan into consideration when they put out the contract cost.

    You can argue all the fine details of brand new gripen e vs new f-16v, but for the philippines, even the gripen c is barely affordable for them, what more a gripen e.

    So in the phillipines case for MRF
    1. Brand new lightweight fighters like gripen c, fc-1, tejas gives little performance advantage over its current FA-50. Swiss evaluation puts the gripen c performance below its current f/a-18s so it is not something on par with hornets or vipers.
    2. Brand new medium fighters like gripen e, f-16v, super hornets while performs better than the gripen c, fc-1, tejas, they are way beyond what they can afford.

    in reply to: Philippine Air Force Horizon 2 Project #2184670
    alexz
    Participant

    I dont think i am the same as alexpz.

    Yeah lets talk about other stuff for PAF in horizon 2.

    Yup i got the numbers from maxdefence. No i dont have the full list of 16 projects. Hoping others from the philippines to chime in. For just 2.73 billion for 16 projects is quite a tall order for anyone to complete, surely something has to give.

    BTW the c-295 is just my opinion, as it would complement the existing c-295s. As for the mpa, i believe previously airbus can meet the 118 million usd ceilling for 2 MPAs, just the last time it was the phillipine government that cancelled it, probably of bugetary reasons coming from the marawi conflict, and now pushed to horizon 2.

    in reply to: What if we were all like India? #2184696
    alexz
    Participant

    That would be just like Qatar mk2.

    If you are really in desperate situation like Qatar, fine. But what other countries currently in such a dire situation that needs something like this?

    Taiwan probably? Or is there any other countries?

    in reply to: Philippine Air Force Horizon 2 Project #2184699
    alexz
    Participant
    in reply to: Philippine Air Force Horizon 2 Project #2184837
    alexz
    Participant

    True,

    But im putting that out to show that 200hours annually is what people fly. So with SLEP, the F-16 could be flown for as long as what people fly brand new fighters for. Check my post #21 for links on F-16 new increased fatigue life. All this info on the increased life of the F-16 with the SLEP to 13,856 hours, which from the solicitation is a minor upgrade of the F-16 airframe, costing about 1.5 million usd in parts, is only known in 2017. So a lot of prior studies did not take this into account as it is simply unavailable at that time. Now with the previously unthinkable high remaining flight hours of F-16 platform, which i think is unmatchable by any other fighter, with its wide range of tried and tested weapons, electronics suite, AESA radar, conformal tanks, IMO it would be foolish for any cash strapped air force to pick anything other than the F-16 for their MRF.

    In the philippines context, if they want to save money, they could always fly their SSA/LIFT platform more, which from botswana’s KAI offer is said to have 1/3rd of gripen life cycle costs. The more expensive MRF F-16 platform could be flown less, for QRA and important strategic patrols in spratlys area, which requires long legs. F-16 with conformal tanks would be ideal for such missions, saving fuel costs with less drag than small fighters needing external tanks. Take also into account the swiss gripen c evaluation, which is a more representative comparison rather than saabs glossy brochures, that put its performance worse than their current F/A-18C/D in various mission profiles.

    https://quwa.org/2017/08/24/korea-aerospace-industries-pushes-fa-50-gripen-botswana-combat-aircraft-bid/

    This is in the case of comparing the used F-16c/d with the newish gripen c. If you take the gripen E/F into account, you could even get brand new F-16V for less than the gripen E/F. Bahrain is getting 19 new F-16V with weapons, and support (10 advisers and 75 contract technicians) for 2.785 billion usd. Compare to the old swiss offer of 22 gripen E/F for 3.5 billion usd. In any case that is an amount the philippines could barely afford. And there would be very little difference in capability between a new F-16V and used F-16C/D upgraded to V standards. So it would be an acceptable tradeoff to go for used.

    http://www.dsca.mil/major-arms-sales/government-bahrain-f-16v-aircraft-support

    in reply to: What if we were all like India? #2185028
    alexz
    Participant

    For the future, there would be plenty more options, especially china.

    Look at the middle east, saudi, uae, kuwait, qatar has been buying plenty of chinese weapons as an option to western hardwares.

    Another way of skirting sanctions is to buy dual use civilian versions, especially aircrafts and ships.

    in reply to: Philippine Air Force Horizon 2 Project #2185266
    alexz
    Participant

    It is not just some parts. Almost all parts except the airframe is used.

    Obviously remaining life of used F-16 now is not like other used fighters. When you compare with the F-16 that is now tested and certified to be able to go to 13,856 hours, which is like twice the equivalent life of other fighters, there is no disadvantage in getting used F-16s.

    Flying hours.

    A normal air force outside USAF usually fly about 200 hours annually for each of their fighters. For example australian hornets, used since 1984, has on average 6,000 hours when it is to be retired in a few years time. This link on hungary’s gripen, has them flying only 2,000 hours annually for 14 aircraft, which is just like 150 hours annually for each airframe.

    https://www.upi.com/Hungary-gets-more-flight-time-on-leased-Gripen-fighters/7041487789472/

    So even if you pull out an airframe from davis-monthan with an acumulated 6,000 hour example, after putting it through SLEP and upgrades with plenty of new parts, you are still getting a better deal than with the gripen c.

    http://www.airforcemag.com/DRArchive/Pages/2017/March%202017/March%2021%202017/USAF-Regenerates,-Delivers-F-16s-to-Indonesia.aspx

    Let say the used F-16 has 6,000 hours minus 13,856 hours available. That is 7,856 hours remaining, and if you fly 200 hours annually, that is 39 years worth of service.

    USAF themselves are planning to use 300-489 the F-16s up till 2048 and beyond. That is a confirmation of a major user flying the F-16 to at least 30 years from now. So no issue of supportability, and assured upgrade options up till 2048 for sure.

    in reply to: Philippine Air Force Horizon 2 Project #2185922
    alexz
    Participant

    Yes the south african gripens are new. All others, including czech, hungarian, thai gripen c are brand new airframes with engine, landing gear, ejection seat, radar etc cannibalized from retired A models. The swedes will not be cannibalizing C models for their E newbuild, expecting to sell or lease their current C models after they received all their E orders. But for new C model build, they still have around 40 A models for them to cannibalize.

    As for gripen C performance, look back at the switzerland comparison with its own F/A-18. That is the real deal, not those glossy saab adverts. Swiss air force rated the gripen c capability even lower than its current F/A-18 hornets

    http://kovy.free.fr/temp/rafale/pdf/12332.pdf

    As for the patrol aircraft, the best match for philippines is surely the C-295mpa, to leverage the commonality with its current C-295 transports.

    For the atrack helos, i would prefer the AH-1Ws…

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 276 total)