Dubya: mate I was intregued by your analysis and would like to offer my own based on information gained from friends based over that way as well as my own observations.
Alphabetically:
Argentina
Feruza Aerea Argentina
Retiring the Mirage III and varient fleet, Possibly in favour of excess M2K’s from France as they transition over to Rafael’s. A-4’s might be replaced by further AT-63 ‘s as Argentina tries to rebuild it’s airforce but keep money in it’s borders.
Armada de Argentina
There are very very few fast jets that could possibly fly off any carrier either current or future. Argentina has two choices to fill this need if they wish to keep a naval aviation componant 1. Buy some Russian Mig-29K’s from Russia or 2. Buy some Naval Tejas from India, only these two countries offer naval planes with the weight considerations that the AdA must look at if they wish to continue carrier flying. In all honesty, If AdA were to remain as a force, then giving up the ellement of their service might be the better idea. They could then retire the Trackers and buy some of the Vikings that are now on offer which still do have a limited offencive capability.
Brazil
Ferusa Aerea Brasilia
Brazil’s ambitious build up can only go so far, sadly they just don’t have the money for new equipment what with the MdB taking it all for maintaining the fleet and building up a nuclear navy. More second hand M2K’s are bound to be bought as the F-X program will soon become a nice dream. The F-5’s will suffer from a series of fatal crashes forcing the FAB to look for a new plane sooner than it thought. Possible choices here are actually many and I actually think that some favourable terms offered by the US or Gripen International will see either F-16’s or Gripens flying here as their replacement though these will be second hand models upgraded.
Marina do Brasilia
They too are forced to watch their weight on the carrier, though unlike Argentina, they do have a carrier. The AF-1’s are at the moment a joke, and if the MdB are serious about a combat element in their service, then they should either shape up the whole budget issue and retire ships that are only living to build up the numbers, or face the real likelyhood that the whole MdB will collaps simply out of national pride. The Skyhawks are good for 10-15 years and then what? The only plane in the weight catagory by then will be the Naval Tejas (one might even susspect that the person behind the Navy budget in Brazil is an Indian national).
Bolivia
The T-33’s are a good example that old equipment can fly one, but what happens when technology fails and the airframe falls apart? Bolivia is a no-mans land when it comes to Defence in South America (no offence). They have no money and a lot of internal conflict. The only way they will get new planes is if someone donates them. I can see China making a move here, offering some F-7’s possibly in favour of pollitical asurence in the global pollitics area (we’ll give you new equipment if you back our moves in Taiwan and the Spratleys) type of thing.
Chile
The recent purchase of F-16’s (AM’s/BM’s from Holland and Block 52+’s from the US) signal the first step in the modernisation of the FACh. I susspect that as time goes on we will see Chile rise to become a more active partner in UN missions and a world leader in global matters. The price of copper having risen significantly on the global market has seen Chile rise itself out of the economic wastelands and into a good position to start demanding favourable terms on arms. The Falcons are replacing the Mirages of all various types, soon it will be the turn of the Dragon flies and then the F-5’s (though this latter one will be a while yet since their upgrade and modernisation is rather deeper that the Brazilian one). there is no doubt that A-37’s thoughout South America are on their last legs, it is a credit to those who have kept them flying this long, but Brazil stands a good chance of picking up here, esopecially with the Super Tucano. Also many countries are resentful of the lack of assistance that other countries have provided in helping to maintain their frontline fleets, this is the strongest reason why Brazil and the Super Tucano will be a dominant force in South America. If Chile is smart then they will jump in and offer a second office in the ENAER production lines for the Super Tucano with maintainence assistance.
Columbia
With internal fighting and boarder clashes with their neighbour Ecuador, the only future I see with the FAC is gloomy. Drug barrons and rebels will eventually team up and buy more sophisticated weapons and soon the FAC will have nofront line fighter force (mainly because it will be taken out on the ground). I see Columbia as a South American copy of Sri Lanka and if they have a fast jet force it will be small and used more for supression of troop movements rather than fending off fighters from Ecuador..
Ecuador
Ecuador is facing a similar situation to that of it’s neighbour Columbia. I don’t have any solutions to the problems, nor will I boast about them. I n both countries though, they really need to look at what their air forces are doing and how they are doing it. Perhaps a restructure to a Helo force in support of army operations is a better way to go.
Guyana
A realitivly quiet nation in a troubles area Guyana has a very very small airforce centered around a transport fleet, any fast jet ops here are a laughable though there is one glimer of hope, them buying a small fleet (3-4) S-3’s on offer to help patrol their territorial waters from drug runners. Though this is not really practical, it’s on the far end of the reality scale, Super Tucano’s are more of a bet here.
Paraguay
Paraguay has a small fleet of F-5’s and no real threat of invaison from anyone. Honestly i see them giving up their Fast Jet element and using the money elsewhere.
Peru
Peru is the oddity in South America, a strong fleet of mixed types formed around Russian and French equipment. Should anything happen to supply lines for their fleet, China would be the best bet for help here, especially with the FC-1 and J-10.
Suriname
Suriname has had more trouble internally that we know what to do with. Major flooding, famine and government corruption have compounded to make this country one of the less desireabe places to be in South America. The operate a very very small transport fleet and prospects of them gaining a fast jet element are humoures at best.
Uruguay
A-37’s are the only fast jets in their service, these are just about time expired if not already, the only possible solution here is for the Super Tucano from across the boarder, especially in so few numbers.
Venezuela
Hugo Chavez has brought the fighter fleet to a stand still, The F-16’s are starting to be canabilised to keep them flying, the mirages and the F-5’s can’t go on and a replacement is needed soon and the AMX-T that was ordered looks like another failing memory. China doesn’t seem a prospect here and Russia wouldn’t help. The only way I can see the FAV getting any help here is via the black market or by a lesser market source (say Ukraine or Georgia who could use the money, possibly even Belorus).
These are just my thoughts and are not ment to offend anyone what so ever.
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