The promised strike is no saturation attack, if it is the first strike on a fully ready and aremd carrier group. Then there are not enough missiles to have a high chance of breaking through the defences imho.
Imho a first strike for the carrier would be not wise for the PAF. They have only a limited number of aircraft they can use to fire the AIM-39s and so those are very valuable. The Indian carrier group has two major weaknesses that a prudent commander could exploit. They have few fighters for the CAPs and the ships have a limited number of reloads for the missiles. And time is on the side the PAF. So before employing my strikers I would try to to get a good fix on the position of the strike force. While using P-3s and Atlanics with fighter cover.
the next step is to pressure the CAPs with faint attacks. Lure them out with F-7. Forcing the CAPs to act increases the pressure on the maintance section and on the pilots. And if they are stupid enough to come out of their AEW cover to engage my fighters os be it. Even if I would only achieve a 1:1 kill ration I´m winning.
Next thing usefull would be air launched decoys. If I could fire drones at teh strike force that would look like a medium alltitude strike on the enemies radars. So I would sent drones and F-7 with their radar on. The F-7 would be ordered to turn back before coming in range of SAMs. I would force them to commit their CAP again. I would force the AA defense ships to turn on their radars and if I´m lucky fighters and ships will waste missiles killing decoys. Just when the IN fighters return to refuel from their hunt for the decoys I would sent in a low level Mirage strike against the outmost AAW picket. Say 4 planes with 2 missiles each. That should give me a high chance of at least a mission kill.
Now the IN commander is forced to redeploy his forces. He will have to weaken his defenses on the south side of the group, to replace the damaged ship on the north side. Now my maritime patrol aircraft come into play. they have enough range to attack from the south side.
So my next attack would be a mdeium alltitude attack using Mirages with F-7 escorts that are flying the same speeds and headings like the drones I used before. Now the IN commander has a decision to make. Another fake raid again, or not. If he commits his CAP on the incomming strike the F-7 engage the CAP, while the Mirages attack another exposed escort.
In the confusion I would sent the P-3s in to attack from the south. Their orders would be to play it save. That means hitting an escort would be enough.
With a second escort damaged the IN carrier group becomes vulnerable. It becomes vulnerbale to airborne, surface and submarine attack. So the next strike I would use all Mirages for a strike on the carrier.
Again I would start with decoys. this time I believe they would not go for them. Then I would want a flight of F-7s using chaff bombs to create a screen for the enemy commander. If possible I would like some stand-off jamming as well.
Then another F-7 flight is sent just inside SAM range but turns north and low when engaged. Meanwhile I would try a highspeed low level attack with the Mirages using a weak point in the defenses. And then launch all I have at the center off the strike group. I would hope that the AAW ships have depleted their SAM stocks enough to be unable to engage all incomimng missiles.
The funny thing on this discussion is, that both sides have an equal chance to win. The side that screws up the first time will most liekley lose, as both are limited in their resources.
Interesting but the IAF does plan to have asquadron of MKis helping out the carrier group at all times which would make the “tirering” of the CAPS of the carriers theory ambiguious.
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