The 167 could carry Ka-28s, so it would not be a problem with the 115 also. Only reason why it carried Z-9s before was that they were waiting delivery for the Ka-28s.

If the hanger is meant to carry all VLS, why build a landing deck? 115 still has a landlng deck and therefore the rear structure is still a true hanger. If you want to put entirely VLS on it, you should just stretch the structure all the way to the back, instead of stepping it like the way it is now. The Luhai can carry two helo, one more than the 052B/C, so it raises the possibility that 114/115 may be more intended for ASW.

Predictions, not so many good news.

US budget and trade deficits hit new heights while economic recovery sputters. US job growth is less than expected though housing is expected to go up and so will real estate values. Euro will hit US$1.40, and dollar will fall under 100 yen. Currency speculators and banks will increase buying of renminbi to record levels in anticipation that the currency will detach itself from the US dollar. China’s foreign reserves easily hits 600 million before June (540 million now).

Iraqi insurgency worsens and there will be more allegations of prisoner abuse, but won’t headline as much as 2004. There is going to be media fatigue on Iraq and more attention will go to natural disasters.

Increased global warming means stronger storms in the Pacific and Atlantic, threatening the east coast of the United States, US pacific territories such as Guam and the Marianas, US Carribean territories like Puerto Rico, and the Carribean nations. Also heavily threatened by the increased storm rate would be the Philippines, the east coast of China, Taiwan, Okinawa, and Japan.

Oil prices surge later in the year, hitting 60$ a barrel.

Sales of hybrid cars expand in the US.

There will be another high level Chinese purchase of an American company or purchase of a major stock share. This will likely involve a telecommunications or internet routing company or both.

Terrorism might be on the rise again, targeting US interests on Third world or Moslem nations. New concerns about bioterrorism will arise.

Russia will shift further to the right, and Putin will become more assertive.

China might shift further to the right despite Hu’s moderacy.

There will be new pandemic outbreaks, e.g. Mad Cow, Bird Flu, SARS.

New PLAN frigate…

By the way, with regards to 115, and if people are going to be gravely disappointed that it may be equipped with HQ-7s and not some other fancy SAM system, I say be prepared for disappointment. It probably might be equipped with HQ-7 or a VLS based variation. PLAN appears to be satisfied with the latest version of the HQ-7 as a short range to point defense missile system and does not appear to be moving away from it. I can’t rule out the installation of a new naval KS-1A but we just have to wait till the destroyer “solidifies” its radar and armament layout.

The missile cannisters are S-300s for sure. You can tell them because the second and third ring on the cannister is close together, while the rings on the FT2000/HQ-9/HHQ-9 cannister is evenly spaced.

On the J-11B we know for sure that designation exists formally, we just don’t know exactly how the plane is changed from the standard J-11 and what is the J-11A for that matter.

Does not look to me like any of the ships are bigger or smaller. They seem to be of the same size. Numbers do not denote any plans for export, as they followed the succession of numbers from the Ludas (113 was the last). Don’t really understand the logic, or the reason for building these ships. My guess they were probably allocated long ago, was delayed, and is only finishing now.

You’re talking about engines from a contract reported on Dec 15th with respect to aircraft built over a year ago. That fine for future production but has no relevance in the context you used it.

How many engines were previously delivered? I know about the 54 but was that all?

Lets see then:

1001-1016 16
01-18 18
01-12 12
1021-1022 2 (J-10B)

Thats 48 engines. Doesn’t look like there are any left until the ones from the recent contract are delivered.

KANWA is saying that there may have been more batches that were delivered but were not reported. The number of engines reported in the news cannot be taken as absolutes, and we need to keep an open mind that the Russians may have shipped more.

Logic says there are still engines available for production aircraft from the initial order of 54 in 2001. That means the numbers don’t add up in support of all the aircraft that are supposed to be flying. If so it would indicate that some of the new color aircraft may not be new but only modified and repainted aircraft. Or maybe the 1010-1016 were repainted and delivered to the FTTC.

I think 1010-1016 were repainted sometime later in 2003. I don’t believe they would be 01 to 05. The easy way would be to just paint over the first two digits that say “10” so that you can have #11 to #16. I have another theory that 101X may be up to 10 (from #1011 to #1019) and the “10” may just be repainted over to produce #11 to #19.

Assuming that the date in my drive could be an error, that would still be 06 to 18 five months (march to July) that would be roughly 2.4 aircraft per month.

2.4 to 2.5 aircraft per month produces about 29-30 planes, which is roughly once again, enough to fit one regiment of such size per year—as I mentioned before.

So if you have 42 engines delivered per year, about 12 engines will be saved for spares.

You’re right, the photos could have been taken prior to Feb 2003, even in 2002 that you claim in the statement above didn’t happen. You have no way to know whether the photos existed in late 2002. You can only say YOU didn’t see them.

What is clear is that there are at least six of the 101X series by February. This likekly supports that production from JUly to December 2002 was about one aircraft per month. Remember, I also said we were only seeing planes in yellow primer only but already have the enlarged RWR. It’s not hard to see that these yellow planes may have end up as the 101X series.

June 2002 would be the logical time the first aircraft delivered went into production. So you now have 8 months to produce these 5 aircraft, not the two months you state. To produce 5 aircraft in two months is a production rate of 60 per year. Your timeline is wrong.

You’re dead wrong again.

You failed to consider the first of the double digit series (01 to 0X)

The March 10 2003 handover of the J-10 was specific that #01 and #05 were in that event, which implies that five planes were made before March of 2003. And these planes were separate from the 101X series which STILL existed after the handover event.

If you want to add it up, ASSUMING no plane is made after the number 1016, and no plane was made after the number 05 BEFORE the March of 2003, you have 11 planes made in 8 months, which is 1011 to 1016, plus 01 to 05.

The photo of #18 (which I can’t find at Huitong’s by the way) is a foil photo. That could have easily been photoshopped to add the number and then foiled to hid the photoshop. Number 18 would need to belong to the 44th who did not have the planes in May 2003. There are many photoshopped J-10 photos that are believed to be real. The one with the red box blocking the 5 digit number is a prime example.

I don’t think the original is photoshopped. The style of lettering is consistent with the other planes, and I don’t believe that No. 18 in that picture was ever with the 44th. The embossed pictures I have, I believe are planes still with the FTTC.

The late pictures we have of the J-10, which is likely to belong to some division, differs from the 101X and the batch that went to the FTTC. They had a more grey color, and they have lost the camouflage pattern, so the planes look very plain. They now have a five digit number in their tail root. This new paint style only appeared with J-10 photos as of 2004.

It is very likely that the highly glossed out pics of #10 and #12 we see in the CDF now represent a new batch, where the numbers could have cycled again starting from 01 and counting upwards. The numbers exist simultaneously with the FTTC planes which also numbered from 01 and above. My guess that 101X planes would also have been moved to the FTTC.