Originally posted by google
Remember Richard Fisher’s report on MAKS 2003? He quoted a Sukhoi official as saying it would take China 10 years to indigenize the J-11; notice, that the official is not saying 10 additional years from now (2003), but rather ~10 years total.

Contrast this with this from a 2003 JDW report- “Russian industry sources have also disclosed that China’s engine makers are close to mastering the complex skills needed to build the Su-27’s AL-31 powerplant – something that most observers had thought would be held under tight Russian control. If this proves to be the case, then China will have used the Su-27SK/J-11 project to establish a total systems capability for advanced combat aircraft in little more than 10 years.”

Perhaps he meant 10 years from the 1995-96 contract to sign the Su-27 coproduction agreement.

That’s what I thought so too. Schedule for the WS-10A to be in service is around 2005-2006 for the J-11 first. This explains the large Chinese contract for the AL-31FN—they are not expecting WS-10A for the J-10 soon given the priorities.

I expect the contract was for 200 planes in 10 years—starting from 1996. That puts production expectancy at 20 a year and the contract heading for renegotiation at 2006. Simply said, I don’t buy that 15 plane a year argument, which was only good at the year 2000 before the production ramped up, and then trying to catch the 2006 deadline. AT 2006, China could renegotiate for new terms in their SU-27 license, with the purpose of indigenization, although Sukhoi is heavily pushing the SU-27SM variant.

however, the question still remains as to what exactly this new capacity will mean. if china does acquire the ability to produce 100% domective su27s, would the russians allow china to independently produce them? would they allow china to make modifications on them? (shouldnt be that hard converting singel seat su27s into twin seaters, maybe thats why china is not that keen on acquiring an MKK licence?)

I believe the indigenization would allow for modifications but these modifications should be known to Sukhoi. I don’t think two seaters are covered at all.

I

Originally posted by Rick
Given the way the 3rd Div upgraded to the Su-30 it would be expected the 2nd Div would get the Su-30 before giving up the Su-27. Is there an Su-30 order out there beyond the Su-30MK2s for the Navy? Since the Navy order was first if the 2nd Div was giving up the Su-27s that would indicate that 2 Naval regiments of Su-30s and the one for the 2nd Div would have been delivered already. Doesn’t seem likely. Given the production rate at Shenyang the 3rd regiment was due to be delivered and this would seem to make the most sense. We will need some additional press realeases to help. I will acknowledge the limited press release info I have seen simply says new model fighter when I would have expected to see new domestic model does tend to support your theory.

Someone needs to take the China United Airline flight to Yinchuan. :p If you buy, I’ll fly……

Could be the SU-30s for one of the 2nd and for one PLANAF reg could have been delivered, but not two PLANAF regs. The KnAAPO production rate of SU-30s won’t support that. I know definitely that by July-August, the first two SU-30 orders are fulfilled for a total of 76 to 80 planes. This should leave you with four regs. If there is a recent delivery in winter, we may be looking at five, the fifth one now being a PLANAF regiment.

That leaves us with six regiments of SU-27s and J-11s. Three of those regiments should have the planes that were delivered from Russia in three orders starting 1992, then 1996 and the last one being the UBKs that finished delivery in 2002.

That leaves you with three regiments for the J-11s. This supports my theory that we have a J-11 regiment conversion per year starting 2001. So at the end of 2003 you should have three J-11 regs, the Lanzhou being the third one.

There is no announcement for another SU-30MKK order beyond the first 38-40 for the Navy. I don’t think the 24-28 reported earlier is correct—patterns don’t support this. Should be for at least two regs of 19 to 20 aircraft each.

On the other hand, the total worth of Chinese arms orders to Russia seem to support yet another SU-30 deal being in the works, because the order amount—at least 2-3 billion made in 2003 alone—is way too big to support other possible Chinese purchases from Russia, considering the Russian input on other fields are small. The PLA does not buy anything Russian other than Tor-M1 SAMs; PLAN orders have been made and accounted for in the previous two years. The continuing development of the SU-30MKK also tends to support the idea that there is yet another deal. This next SU-30 deal is back to PLAAF and is intended to have support for the SAPSAN and M400 pods, scheduled at the late 2004 at the earliest.

It’s very likely Russian news are not covering some of these Chinese purchases anymore as they become routine and such. You could see there are no news on the order and delivery of Russian equipment to the Chinese Navy either, despite such equipment being photographed on the new Chinese destroyers.

Originally posted by plawolf
:confused: why PS it at all? its not like this plane doesnt really exist.:rolleyes:

That’s because we almost never include what the original poster have to say, and so often because of this, we take the picture out of context.

What if the poster meant that he was speculating what if the FTC-2000 is converted to a single seater, and would use PS to graphically illustrate his opinion? Many of the PS appear to be “what-ifs” like J-10 with twin cockpit, etc,. This picture is a clear case of a “what if” instead of the FC-1, a single seater FTC-2000 instead offered for the PAF.

When I go to China or HK, I deliberately avoid the fast foods since you can get the same on the states and the fast foods are always crowded with young people.

I go to the small restaurants instead, as they really provide the authentic cuisine. (Same thing when I go to Japan too). My particular favorite in HK is the congee and the beef brisket noodles. I also love the Taiwan tan-tan noodles.

The bird flu means I have to forego some of my favorite dishes—duck and pigeon. It’s been harder and harder to find good pigeon in HK these days since the flu and the SARS scare.

Back on topic, the JH-7 won’t be able to defend themselves compared to the F-2. The JH-7 is more on strike although it’s capable of some defense itself using PL-5s, while the F-2 is still multirole with greater air to air capabilities. It’s not confirmed yet if the F-2 will get AAM-4, but at least we know it’s got Sparrows. On the JH-7, it’s possible that the newer JL-10A radar to host BVRAAMs like the PL-10/11/12/SD-10 but I don’t see BVRAAMs being installed not even in the mockups of the JH-7 and JH-7A, implying no such roles are intended for it.

What is clear to me is that the JH-7A may have better ASM ordinance, if you not only factor the air launched C-803, but also the Kh-31A and the YJ-12 as seen in mockups. JH-7s will have to be covered by other planes for protection and diversion.

AESA radar is a technological advantage, but it won’t translate much into antishipping work since even a planar antenna like on the newer JH-7s could easily detect a destroyer sized target up to 300km. Even with early detection, the F-2 has to be at least 100km from the target to launch its AshMs, whereas the JH-7 could launch them farther with C-802Ks and C-803s.

The F-2 advantage comes better in ground attack—a more advanced radar could probably resolve ground targets better, but you still have to get in close to use Mavericks. The F-2 however lacks any decent SEAD capability or HMS for air to air—technology is not the issue in obtaining these capabilities for the F-2, the main problems lie with politics and politics. Every tech the US shares with Japan, Japan has to reciprocate in return.

There is no information whether the JH-7 has SAR capabilities, but it’s usually common to have doppler sharpening for most radars now. But sharpening ain’t that good in resolving ground targets. We do know that at least one SAR/FLIR pod has been exhibited, but it is not clear if the JH-7 would be fitted with it, or how far is this pod’s development from service.

There is very little information I could gather about Japanese AshMs. They’re much more secretive about it than the Chinese about such weapons. although its clear they have performed actual launch trials on the ASM-2. (ASM-1 has been long deployed).

ASM-2 appears to be a 100km range missile with a dual seeker (active radar + infrared). In that sense, it’s very similar to Taiwan’s HF-2 (120km, dual seekers). When infrared seekers are use by AshMs they’re intended for coastal defense, where the infrared is necessary for additional target differentiation from coastal rocks. Both missiles appear to be in the Harpoon class—subsonic seaskimmers, about the same weight and warhead size as the Harpoon.

Here is some “avian” news for Mr. Hamburger to enjoy.

Shanghai residents flock to foreign fast-food outlets
SHANGHAI – The bird flu crisis may be depressing sales of poultry dishes at restaurants in China but fast-food chains are weathering the storm.

This is because products served at international franchise outlets are perceived as safe for eating.

Advertisement

Despite the discovery late last week of suspected bird flu in the financial capital of Shanghai, customers continued to throng Kentucky Fried Chicken and McDonald’s outlets yesterday.

‘I know the chicken supplied to KFC and McDonald’s is safe, so it doesn’t matter… I’m not afraid to have chicken at all,’ said Mr Gu Keda, munching on chicken burgers with his wife and two-year-old daughter.

Industry experts say the perception of quality and consistency of products served at these chains reassures customers the food is safe and therefore sets them apart from local rivals.

Mr Fang Liqing, a KFC public relations manager in Shanghai, said the US-based company did not buy from small farms such as those found in Nanhui district, where bird flu is suspected to have broken out.

‘Our chicken suppliers are the biggest and best in the country…we would never use their (Nanhui farmers’) chicken,’ he said.

While he insisted the outbreak of bird flu had so far had no impact on the city’s 115 franchise businesses, that was not the case at Xiao Shaoxing, a specialty chicken-dish restaurant popular with locals.

One of Xiao Shaoxing’s 100 outlets, which were usually packed, was devoid of customers on Monday.

Sales have plummeted by half since confirmed or suspected avian influenza swept through 10 regions and provinces in China.

‘After reading newspapers, people are very panicky. They have stopped eating chicken for the time being,’ said manager Chen Wenyao. — AFP

What about “Foxy” then?

I read from the CDF, that the terms like “Jianghu”, “Jiangwei”, “Luhu” and “Luhai” used on the Chinese frigates and destroyers are actually made by the US.

JANE’S DEFENCE WEEKLY – FEBRUARY 04, 2004

———————————

J-10 power plants delivered to China

MMPP Salyut, the Moscow-based machine building enterprise, completed a two-year contract in January to supply China with a batch of 125.5 kN AL-31FN double-flow turbofan engines.

In all, 54 engines were delivered during 2001-2003, according to a military-diplomatic source.

The AL-31FN engine powers the single-engine J-10 (F-10) fighter aircraft developed by the Chengdu Aircraft Industrial Corporation. Serial production of these fighters began in 2003. Experts believe that a total of 300 aircraft of this type are planned.

Research and development of the AL-31FN at MMPP Salyut was completed in 2000, with deliveries to China starting at the end of 2001. The base price of the AL-31FN is US$3 million.

One of the variants of the AL-31FN engine features a fully variable, rotating, thrust-vector control (TVC) nozzle designed by the Klimov Design Bureau in St Petersburg. This has been exhibited on Salyut’s display stand at foreign air shows. The engines being delivered to China do not have the TVC nozzle. However, if it is subsequently retrofitted during an engine upgrade, it will turn the J-10 into a super-manoeuvrable fighter.

Salyut also manufactures the AL-31F engines for the Su-27SK, Su-27UBK and Su-30MKK and Su-30MK2 fighters exported to China and for Su-27SKs produced in the country under licence.

Does anyone know how much G the R-77 can take?

The other info I have is SD-10 up to 40G, and R-Darter up to 55G.