nocutstoRAFThe ONLY way that the treasury miss the cost implications of catobar is if someone hides them. The point here is that its not in either the raf or the navy’s interest to conceal that.
Super hornet represents a paper study in an MoD exercise its not, and never has been, a real contender.
The National Audit Office report into major equipment projects in 2009 makes reference to the F-35B being the most cost effect option so the Treasury and the MoD are clear on the cost/benefit analysis of the different options.
However over on ARRSE on this subject there was mention of a MoD study which suggested that the difference between CATOBAR and STOL was cost neutral. Now either the posters, despite sounding like being in the know are talking sh*te or the MoD has moved the goal posts, maybe looked at it in the context of UCAV’s or cross-decking with the French, I suspect the former but you cannot rule out the latter.
Finally, trawling the net for blog’s I have found several US ones from various talking heads/self-declared defence experts which have picked up on the UK going CATOBAR, they were treating it as serious story, true and stupid choice (though to be fair one suggested that UK was stupid for wanting a carrier full stop as we lack enough escorts to adequately protect the carriers).
nocutstoRAFI’d steer well clear of LCA, theres also the added irony of us licencing a plane we originally rejected the design of as not capable enough for UK requirements.
I had no idea that the LCA had ever been considered by the UK do you have any tips where I might look to find out more? My suggestion is based on politics and keeping British money in Britain rather than capabilities as I think that the LCA is the wrong aircraft for the FAA (a STOBAR light fighter would have to short a range, and not be able carry a lot of ordnance) and I only see the need for it for the RAF if they needed a cheaper jet for CAS and COIN.
Saying all that if jointry is what you want and you still intend to fill the JSA role, then as a outside option you could offer to licence the LCA from HAL, pay for the engine development in return for India selecting Typhoon for the MRCA. This a) results in JCA being fully built in the UK with the only money going out of the economy being for the license fee and any systems selected for a non-UK supplier, b) guarantee’s jobs at RR and BAE, c) gives the UK a strong position to negotiate with the other partners in the Eurofighter consortium for modifications to either workshare or future commitments, as UK would have made a pretty large financial sacrifice to secure the MRCA order.
nocutstoRAFI think there is a proposal to retire early those Typhoons without any A2G capabilities and so far the only country not signalling that they will cancel Tranche 3B is Spain and if Spain cancels then there will be no penalties, and we all know the Lib Dem’s are opposed to Tranche 3B
nocutstoRAFWhat I can envisage is something like this:
The RAF looses all of it’s Tornados and hands it’s Harriers over to the FAA. The F/A-18 Super Hornet is procured for the FAA to replace the Harriers shortly before the new carriers come in to service.
I can imagine the RAF getting all of the 232 Typhoons originally specified and do not underestimate the A2G potential of the type, everybody does but they are wrong, potentially it is as good as the Super Hornet. Maybe they will retain 12 or 13 front line squadrons plus an OCU of the type but only one type and I can see the FAA maintaining 4 or 5 squadrons of Super Hornets even if all are not embarked.
It looks drastic I know but draconian measures are being mooted….
I agree that is a likely scenario except I do not see anywhere near as many Typhoons or Super Hornet’s being purchased or as many squadrons being stood up, I reckon 12 front-line FJ squadrons in total between RAF and FAA would be the best to be hoped for. Just to mention my analysis is based on the fact that, unless I have misread the RAF year book and the RAF web-site, we have what 14 frontline squadrons now between RAF and FAA and this is seen is some quarters as to many squadrons of fast jets.
nocutstoRAFIF they go down the route of turbo prop carrier based COIN aircraft then I have always been partial to the idea of new version of the Skyraider (or the Skyshark) with modern avionics and a new engine. Sure it would be costly to develop but at least you be flying something with a proven track record in COIN.
Obviously the draw back of turbo-prop planes is there lack of speed – so no dash ability and harder to escape MANPADS
nocutstoRAFI thought the F-35 and the Typhoon filled different roles, while both are swing role – one IMHO is better than the other at A2A while the other is better at A2G. I can see the F-35A being selected to replace the Tornado, even if the F-35A was not what the RAF had in mind as a replacement (mostly as they were not looking to replace the Tornado until 2024).
I have seem people suggest the F-35C (other have suggested F/A-18) for both RAF and FAA use, I think its worth discussing but I wonder if you really can have jointry if you drop F-35B as I cannot see the RAF being keen to pay to carrier qual. their pilots if they rarely fly of the carriers and there is a premium in weight and performance to be paid for flying aircraft designed to operate of a carrier.
While it defeats the purpose of having aircraft types to reduce logistics, I wonder if the MoD is considering 3 or 4 squadrons of the F-35A plus an OCU for the RAF to replace the Tornado’s, stretching the Harrier until EMAL’s is mature around 2018/20 and then buying enough F/A-18’s to stand up two FAA squadrons.
Then there is the crazy idea I wheel out to see people jump – BAE buy’s licensing rights from HAL for the LCA and further develops it in a land and carrier based LCA 2 design incorporating EJ200 engines, thrust vectoring, Selex AESA radar and any other critical systems we want to be unique to the UK.
nocutstoRAFReading Liam Fox’s speeches he seems keen to buy off the shelf solutions when it comes to aircraft and does not seem all that keen for example of buying aircraft via AugustaWestland if he can buy cheaper elsewhere.
I think the UK industrial strategy will be to buy US aircraft and invest in UK industry for UAV/UCAV’s and in ship building.
With regard to the F/A-18 I think it is a good solid aircraft and that Boeing will make a good deal with UK including offsets or participation to get the UK to buy a sizeable number from them, however if we give up on the F-35B then either buying the F-35A for the RAF or the C for FAA guarantee’s a return on our $2 billion investment in R&D as I fear PPP comments might be true even if the participation is based on our investment not our purchases.
nocutstoRAFWhile I am no advocate of cooperation with France I think the signs are all there that it is going to happen though likely not as close as the papers have it. I am think it is likely we will see France buying hours on our tankers, that they will either pool transport aircraft with us or Germany, and when the Charles de Gaulle is retrofitting they will operate of a British carrier instead of a US carrier (like the do now) so that the pilots will not loose their qualification to fly CATOBAR.
It may be possible that the UK is eying up all of France’s expanding amphibious lift and is seeing further options to cooperate.
Even before the election Liam Fox was talking about cooperating with the French.
In any case there will need to be a cast iron agreement how to cooperate so that neither side baulks at what it is being asked to do.
If the carriers go CATOBAR I see no reason to buy Rafale’s – they offer no industrial benefits to UK, other CATOBAR designs will be operated in larger numbers (F/A-18 and Dave-C), Dave-C will guarantee our industrial benefits (less the lift-fan sales) and even F/A-18 will likely lead to some industrial benefits.
nocutstoRAFSadly true – but it could be argued that the reason why so much was cut was that they over spec’ed the CVF’s then had cut back the gold plate (along with some other things which I think should have not been cut).
Still let’s hope Artisan 3D is good enough.
To cheer Liger up here is a total unrelated pic of some RN amphibious vessels 🙂
nocutstoRAFOkay – I read it as that it had a C4 system just not as good as one the original brief called for – I think it is a matter of interpretation especially as the system being installed is based on the Type 45 system.
With regard to my rhetoric with cooperation with France I may have gotten carried away and extrapolated it a bit far but if we take all the newspapers stories as the truth then among the cuts of Tornado’s, MR4 and older helicopter’s there is a number of stories floating around suggesting UK binning Harrier, and France operating of British carriers which can only lead to conclusion that if true the UK is going for CATOBAR. Going for a CATOBAR carrier links into the rumours over buying F/A-18’s and you have to wonder how much of the leaks are options and how much they are the shape of the SDSR forming before our eyes.
None of us might like the direction the SDSR is going but it sounds like there is a real possibility that Liam Fox is pushing close cooperation with the French for all it’s worth and that some sort of agreement will come out in October which will radically change the way we cooperate with the French. (I can find you quotes from his speeches if you like which show that this is part of his strategy).
nocutstoRAFThanks Bager1968 – that confirms a few bits and pieces that said the Marines wanted the F-35B in operational service by 2012
nocutstoRAFMoD finally admits that the RAF is using Shadow R1 in Afghanistan for surveillance operations:
http://www.key.aero/view_news.asp?ID=2454&thisSection=military
nocutstoRAFBut surely the writing has been on the wall for the last 9 years or so that MoD was running out of cash. Still it would seem stupid to can Ocean and not replace it with a new vessel which would cost what – a price of one C2 spec’ed frigate.
As an aside does anyone know what is going to happen about replenishment ships and sea tanker support as I thought a lot of RFA ships were getting long in the tooth?
nocutstoRAFIt is interesting that we had Jane’s suggesting the UK borrowing a carrier from the US and now two newspaper articles suggesting borrowing aircraft both of which are meant to occur in the next five years. Ignoring for the moment that both these ideas seem utterly stupid, and assuming my wild conjecture is only moderately stupid – could it signal early retirement of Invincible class along with the Harriers and some weird stop gap where France and the UK jointly lease an old carrier from the US before QE is launched with it’s squadron of F/A-18 (to keep it on topic) as a basis on the on-going premise of the UK and France co-operatively operating their carrier’s with joint air wings?
nocutstoRAFRealistically do you think the RN really thought that once it had the two carriers built and needed to re-capitalise it frigate fleet that it really expected to replace Ocean when it retired in 2018 even before the SDSR?
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