nocutstoRAFWell StevoJH I hope you are right – but I cannot help fear that bean counters at the MoD might prefer a lower upfront costs against a higher lifetime cost for their carrier fighters.
I do not think there would be a delay as Converteam seems to have scaled up EM catapult to fit into the space on QE that is reserved for it. I was unaware of needing extra ground crew for CATOBAR carrier, but I was certainly aware that you need to fly more ofter if you are on flying off a CATOBAR carrier to practice your launch and landings, and there is a lot more wear and tear on the plane due to the strains of launching from a catapult and the high angle of attack landings with an arrestor wire.
nocutstoRAFI think LO might be an area which the UK might have to compromise – it looks like that Converteam have got EMCAT working and the MoD has to make 10 – 20% cuts against a background of procurement cost overruns, if say 70 F-35B’s cost £7.5 billion but say 70 F/A-18 E/F costs £5 billion then I can see that despite all of the logic that says that the MoD, RN and RAF have planned their strategy around the F-35B there they will go with the cheaper aircraft.
(I am of course in a pessimistic mode and I am hoping someone like pjhydro will pop up and let me know just how unfounded my pessimism is 🙂 )
nocutstoRAFWith regard to the Sea Typhoon – based on comments posted by other’s who all seem to know more about this sort of thing than I do – the idea of a Sea Typhoon was pretty much discounted due to the amount of work involved.
The impression I have with regard to the F-35B is that it is not so much it’s LO status that the RAF want, but it’s flexibility due to it’s STOL abilities (the fact that they can operate from the carriers and austere airfields) combined with its advanced sensor technology and it network capabilities. The F-35B offers a bunch of advantages aside from it LO that is impossible to get all of them from any other aircraft on the market
nocutstoRAFWell if any merger of the Marines and the Para’s goes ahead beyond some sort of symbolic co-joining then there is the question of what you would actually call the new regiment – any suggestions?
nocutstoRAF– I think C3 might be one of those areas where what they planned to do and what they do now is very different. I would not be surprised if in the future the number of frigates drop a little but the number of C3 platforms goes up dramatically as Liam Fox has made the point that Navy needs more smaller platforms to carry out its missions, and some of the larger proposed C3 designs are quite capable.
– I also think that the F-35 is a moving target, while I can see all the logical reasons why the F-35 should stay due to its flexibility and fifth generation capabilities and worry about the story of the RAF giving up F-35:
If I was in charge of the RAF and was told that if I keep Tornado until 2024 then there’s no F-35’s for you (just 65 F-35’s for the RN) but that if I take the Tornado’s out of service by 2015 I can then also have 65 F-35’s I would sacrifice the Tornado. On the other hand if I decided to keeps the Tornado until 2024, having given up any requirement for the F-35B, and the RN was pushing for F-35B’s at say $130 million a pop then I (being in charge of the RAF) could rightly point out that if the RAF can make do with its current aircraft then the RN can make do with cheaper 4th Gen aircraft like the Rafale-M or Super Hornet.
In fact given all the news stories floating around now if I was Boeing or Dassault I would be contacting the MoD about now with an unsolicited offer and make sure the costs where leaked to the press along with a comparison to the recent Canadian F-35 purchase :diablo:
RE: Tornado conversion – I thought the Typhoon was difficult to convert due to the placement of the intakes (underneath the fuselage) but imagined Tornado with the side intakes, and the swing wing for good low speed stability that it simply would be a matter of stripping back the fuselage, adding strengthened undercarriage and tail, maybe changing the air intakes to a corrosion resistant material, and then running the planes through several years worth of testing.
nocutstoRAFHad a crazy SDSR cost saving idea for the carrier’s and no amount of internet searching could get me a straight answer – does anyone know if they could take some of the Tornado’s with a reasonably number of hours left on their airframes and convert them to operate of the carrier’s (i.e. strengthen their undercarriage and make any other changes needed) then the could operate the carrier version of the Tornado along side current Tornado’s until thir projected OSD in 2024 there by avoiding having to buy F-35’s until the early 2020’s rather in the 2016 – 18 time-frame. Would it work and would it be cheap enough to be worth doing?
nocutstoRAFI don’t get what kind of saving would be generated by giving the Marines to the army, unless they truly mean to pay off Ocean, Albion and Bulwark and destroy all the amphibious capability, which would make of the Marines mere light infantry, destroy centuries of history and leave a bleeding gap in capability that would never be filled.
I think the idea is that instead of separate training programme for the Marines and separate training programme for the Para’s you would have a single recruitment and training programme which meant that your new elite force could be jumping out a plane one month, zip lining down a Merlin the next month and assault a beachhead in the Middle East the month after that. You could also join there administration and command saving money there as well.
However I think the RN called the Army’s bluff on this as I am not sure the Army actually want to try to merge the Para’s with the Marines when push came to shove.
nocutstoRAF(I have cut lots of your well thought out comment – sorry!) This is indicative of my thinking. I think that there’s more than 7 billions worth of savings in this plan, but obviously they are savings spread on several years, and not immediate.
On the other hand, save 7 billions today would mean close down the whole army, because there’s no other way to save such amounts.
Thanks for the detailed reply – the point I failed to make was if they scarifice some things now can they get enough money to buy new equipement where the SDSR deems they need it – its the difference between salami slicing or re-configuring the forces. For example if letting RAF have all the fast jets means they do not battle with RN over the carriers then it is a win, if cutting the tornado’s early means that they buy a 150 F-35C in the latter half of the decade rather than 50 F-35B’s then that is a win, hell it is still likely a win if the cut the tornado’s early and buy 150 of the upgraded F/A-18 E/F talked about recently. Another example is if by paying off minesweepers now ensures that there is a 1:1 replacement of the frigates then it is almost a win. Likewise if getting the Army to pay for the marines in some sort of expeditionary force combined with the Para’s means that the Navy keeps their amphibious assault capabilities then it is also a win.
The way I see it is that Liam Fox is either going to unveil a deliverable plan which will be surprisingly well thought out or he is going to chop the armed forces in a piecemeal manner – as he is a politician I tend to suspect the latter, but I hope for the former.
On a completely unrelated to the rest of my post – I noticed one of the rumours over the weekend was that Army were pushing for more UAV’s and for Super Tucano’s in the COIN role, if this happens could they deploy the Super Tucano’s off the carriers or would it be better to say ask Boeing to resurrect the Skyraider (or the Skyshark) and use them for COIN. My thinking is that if you could deploy them off the carriers then you could get them in-country right from the beginning, and they would be great to provide close cover and persistent ISAR to special forces or for limited landing operations.
nocutstoRAFLets think radically and optimistically (the latter is really hard for me) – lets assume that the RN agrees to give up it fast jet’s to RAF, the marines to the Army (but retain amphibious assault), the RAF and RN give up transport helicopters to the Army, the Army sacrifices heavy armour and artillery, but get FRES which is uses as a “light tank” for urban combat, the Army also agrees to cut Super Puma early, and Sea Kings, the RAF to forego F-35B, cut Tornado’s early, cut one type of transport plane as soon as A400M comes on line (to reduce logistics trail) and Harrier as soon as QE launches – all which are based on the various rumours I have read recently.
The question becomes would these savings be enough, along with base closures, to allow the MoD to make purchase of new fleet of Merlin’s in the medium lift role plus the Chinnock’s it is already committed to, to purchase a cheaper catapult launched strike fighter to operate off the carriers and from RAF bases, to purchase FRES that the Army wants and still make a 10% saving?
nocutstoRAFWell, certainly a coup like that could work, but usually, in regimes that have an iron hand on things, the ones who command the army are chosen to be loyal.
Personally i believe, that if a radical change in Iran ever happens, it will not come by the armed forces, but either by elections or by uprising of the civillians.
Iran has electoral system, so it’s not technically a dictatorship, but the ruling is quite oppressive and harsh against those who don’t do things as prefered by the Revolution. History has shown that such regimes, usually fall violently and by the hand of the people. What triggers that is some unusual event. If you look at most dictatorships in Latin America for example, they fell without the army doing starting the action against the goverment.
Here’s also how Causescu fell, by the people leading the way and once the tide was big enough, simply the army followed or ceased to follow orders:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romanian_Revolution_of_1989
Anyway, as far as i am concerned, the whole issue leaves me indifferent. But i do understand why the Israelis have problem with it. When someone says that he wants to wipe you from the map and in addition he would think of it probably as following God’s will and doing a good deed, you have reasons to worry.
The last elections were very likely rigged and there was a popular (if peaceful) uprising which was crushed, and those arrested included a number of very senior clerics. My opinion is that the system in Iran is set up to prevent an uprising or a coup. You set up a dynamic so the Republican Guard which is what the US senators seem to call them or the Revolutionary Guard according to other sources, gets most of the money and best graduates who are also the most loyal so that in the event of any uprising you can guarantee that even if you army decides to stay at home that you have a force to crush your enemy with or crush the Army if they are the uprising. There also appears to be a lot of effort put in place to stop senior military personnel from gaining too much power.
I think the Revolutionary Guard is meant to be loyal to the Supreme Leader and not necessarily to the Government or the President. I have read accounts that suggest that there is an ongoing power struggle in Iran between different factions to take control of “Governmental” structures (such as the Council of Experts who would elect the next Supreme Leader). However, I have read enough to know I barely understand the complexities of the situation.
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/iran/pasdaran.htm
nocutstoRAF(Shrugs) – if the stories are true that the RAF has both given up getting F-35’s and agreed to cut it total fast jet numbers (which makes the Tornado’s the most realistic target) then you would assume that the pressure would be on the RN and the FAA to drop the F-35 as well and buy a cheaper alternative otherwise it does not makes sense – as the main benefit of the F-35B is it’s ability to be jointly operated with the RAF and move seamlessly from sea to land and back again, which is perfect in a future when resources are constrained and you can only afford a limited number of squadrons. In fact the F-35B meets Liam Fox’s requirement of only buying multi-role equipment and moving away from specialist single purpose equipment.
Edit (I forgot to mention I thought intresting the story is being made public now and Jane’s inferred that the information that the contract had been placed had been kept secret up to now – suggesting that something new is going to be announced)
PS I know you are down on Liam Fox as you think he is bashing the Type 45 but I think he is hinting that they will need to use the Type 45 more flexibly and fit it with the things that it was designed to operate but is not got.
nocutstoRAFI posted a link to this story a few posts back good to see someone else found it as well – I think it is interesting that a year ago the MoD was planning a contingency if the F-35B was not brought or if they wanted to operate both CTOL and STOL aircraft from QE. Strange that in all the rumour stories in the newspapers someone has not mentioned abandoning the F-35 all together for something cheaper, makes you wonder if the people briefing the newspapers actually know anything at all.
nocutstoRAFI understood your point – I just seriously doubt that anything short of the Army and Air force raising up against the Republican Guard is going to bring down the Iranian Government (after all that is what the Republican Guard is for, to prevent an armed uprising)- and in that sort of fight I can see nukes being used (just like Iraq used chemical weapons to deal with similar problems)
nocutstoRAF… what if the iranian regime gets nuclear weapons, but at some point, there is a violent uprising against the regime and some loyalist fanatics of the republican guard, decide that before they go down they will strike Israel?
Would it not make more sense for the loyalist fanatics to use any nuclear weapons they have to neutralise the uprising?
Iran and its leaders have said over and over again that they would wipe Israel off the map…. Talking the talk is one thing, but with nuclear capability Iran will be able to walk the walk. Israel and its allies should not let this happen.
IMHO North Korea is a lot less rational than Iran, constantly threatens to nuke South Korea and any bit of the US it can hit and never has. I personally think that whole lets nuke Israel rhetoric is just that, rhetoric.
nocutstoRAFAccording to Jane’s the MoD placed a £650,000 contract in 2009 with Converteam UK to continue demonstration of an EMCAT system and carry-out scaling up work to fit an EMCAT system to the CVF’s:
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