CAT1, From what I’m told, Iran is tightly in control of its border region with Afghanistan and less so in its own Baluchistan province where it has faced several insurgencies and which is aslo extremely sparsely populated. The US wants coastal access as well, so only Pakistan can do. Secondly, the US already has a significant number of assets inside Pakistani bases and wants the use of airstrips for intel types of work.
Anyway, you are perfectly fine to be skeptical about what I said, but what you cannot be skeptical about is that the US doesn’t reverse a 15 year old policy and offer major rewards for nothing.
CAT1, Do you expect an official statement from ISPR? We will all know in a few months. We have history as an indicator – Musharraf has been willing to let US base in Pakistan to attack Afghanistan and he has a record of compromising Pakistani sovereignty for aid and other rewards from the US. Like they say, once it is established that so and so is a -, it’s only a matter of price negotiations.
Do you believe that Bush released “unlimited” F-16s because he felt that Pakistan was going to become a beacon of democracy and virtue ๐
Yahoo/H-177, I think you should stick to discussing with your level ๐
Wolffy, Do you think it was a coincidence that Pakistan just sent its centrifuges to IAEA after years of refusal just as the F-16s were announced? There’s no free lunch. Just wait a few months. We’ll know ๐
BTW here’s an editorial from Pakistan’s Daily Times:
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_27-3-2005_pg3_1
Meanwhile, one important issue relates to what quid pro quo Pakistan might possibly have offered the US to get the coveted F-16s. Just days ahead of the visit to Pakistan of Ms Rice, the federal information minister, Sheikh Rashid, said that Dr AQ Khan had sold centrifuges to Iran. The statement came out of the blue. Later the government tried to downplay it by saying that Mr Rashid had merely stated what was already known. It was a lame explanation at best because Mr Rashid ended up officially confirming for the first time the extent of Dr Khanโs help to Iran. Neither does it seem like a coincidence that an official statement about Pakistan planning to hand over some โobsoleteโ centrifuges to the International Atomic Energy Agency has synced with news of the Bush administration agreeing to sell F-16s to Pakistan. Mr Rashidโs statement that centrifuges have no connection with F-16s is welcome but unfortunately isnโt too credible. Perhaps that formed part of discussions between Ms Rice and President Musharraf. Similarly, the official spokespersonโs clarification that handing over centrifuges to the IAEA will have no impact on Pakistanโs nuclear programme may be correct but fudges the fact that Pakistan has been steadily forced on the back-foot since February 2004 when the Dr Khan affair reached its highpoint. The red lines that Pakistan had placed on the issue after Dr Khanโs apology have long been crossed.
The question that was asked then, and remains relevant to wit, is whether Pakistan is part of the dragnet that the US is planning to throw around Iran. If so, it is worth asking whether getting 24 F-16s is such a good deal. Equally, we should not underestimate the intrinsic value of the US-Pakistan relationship since 9/11 to both countries in which Pakistan has arguably got a good deal that has enabled it to pull itself out of a serious economic and political trough.
Sure man sure. Some people need to feel glad ๐
CAT1,
There are thousands of F-16s in operation today, almost all of them manufactured in LM plants in the US.
It may be that PAF plans to order 24+40 or whatever the initial number is. But the US has made it clear that it is up to PAF to order more and if they do, they will get it.
Let me put it this way – you have $700 million in US aid going to Pakistan every year plus around a billion in recoup. It is not intended to subsidize Pakistan’s purchases from elsewhere.
Pakistan will surely buy the FC-1 but J-10 we will see.
Democracy or autocracy has nothing to do with US policy. The F-16 sale to Pakistan is a message that the US will tightly embrace that country. There are some sovereignty issues when the US does that but the flip side is the reward, which Pakistan is getting for its services since 9/11.
I’d be surprised if Pakistan does not get AMRAAMs, JDAMs etc. with their new Vipers. It doesn’t make sense for them to buy it otherwise.
All politics is local. Believe it or not, the timing of this news was decided by Lockheed-Martin. When I said here in Jan that the F-16s would be approved by summer, I was looking at the drop-dead date for LM to get new F-16 orders before closing their line and laying off workers. It turns out that they had an earlier date and hence the announcement on Friday.
Anyway, it figures that in the euphoria over the announcement many PAF “experts” would put up their lists of 200 F-16s, 300 FC-1 and 100 J-10s type plans, but the reality is that the US is a bigger bania than the original bania and will end up steering Pakistan to buy more and more F-16s and not other planes.
The idea is to keep the billions in payoff/aid given to Pakistan within the US economy. Look for a quiet sidelining of the pro-China PAF senior officers and the strengthening of the old-US group. I’ll look for a quiet announcements of “troubles” ๐ with FC-1 and “unforeseen” ๐ delays with plans of buying J-10. So, I can only wish luck tothose who are stating PAF will buy large numbers of FC-1 or J-10 ๐
Xanadu – You might want to rethink that type of post. US isn’t recongnizing anyone as nuclear power. India and Pakistan both are nuclear powers because they have exploded the bum. No certificate is needed from Washington.
Hey, atleast we have the ability to make them, unlike your painters ๐
The Shaheen-II would appear to represent the Chinese M-18, although it is questionable whether Pakistan has actually obtained these missiles from China. There was no indication that China had transferred such missiles to Pakistan.
After the Chinese were caught selling full M-11 missiles to Pakistan in 1991-92, they changed their tactics to send components and blueprints to be assembled in Pakistan.
But if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it must be… ๐
Excellent. No bases to US for attack on Iran. And F-16’s coming soon. Congratulations to all fellow Pakistanis and thumbs up to the Americans for the goodwill gesture.
Pakistan Zindabad.
No bases? Says who? ๐ Just wait till Natantz gets bombed from the east.
And goodwill gesture? ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐
That must be some strong koolaid man.
BTW BM, US told India about the F-16 approval for Pakistan in November 2004 itself. The Rice visit last week was purely a discussion of what India wanted i.e nuclear reactors and space tech and what US wanted namely end to Indian deals with Iran.
And hey, I ain’t NV, but you are BM ๐
Sure BM, if that makes you happy. ๐
The MNNA thing makes it simpler and what I descrobed IS the simpler process for MDE/SME. MNNA makes it ultra easy for smaller items like radios, ammo etc which don’t need any approval. But MNNA doesn’t mean Musharraf can call Bush and ask him to FedEx some F-16s overnight ๐
But rules are rules for big ticket items.
Mav or shall I say BM ๐
Engine trouble could mean a lot of things, such as supply issues, which have been reported in many places. ๐ Anyway, I only wrote what I heard. When your govt guy goes on the record saying that they have troubles, I’m guessing there must be some reason. Maybe it’s just me.
Anyway, any major system sale whether it is financed thru FMS or paid for by foreign govt needs Congressional clearance. The Executive branch may not sell MDE (Major Defense Equipment)/SME (Significant Military Equipment) without obtaining congressional approval thru 36(b) notification and a 20-Day โUnofficialโ notification period, followed by a 30-Day โOfficialโ notification period.
Golden Arrow care to post a news source for the engine difficulties a ‘Pak spokesman’ stated?
It was in a panel discussion with Sheikh Rasheed Ahmed and 2 others on Voice of America. Mr. Rasheed was on the phone and the interviewer asked him to explain his statement that the F-16s were critical for Pakistan to fill an urgent gap. He asked him why he said that when Pakistan will likely get the JF-17 from China earlier than any F-16 delivery could commence. Mr. Rasheed replied saying that the F-16s were a sure thing and “we are facing some engine issues with the JF-17 that is causing severe concern to us.” He added that the Americans have offered unlimited F-16s and because of that Pakistan need not worry about JF-17 problems. He added that PAF chief will make a decision on the exact number to order.
Mig Master,
It is C and D for sure. Block 52 confirmed.
The first order is 24-28 and a follow up order for more.
Block 52s for sure. Pak spokesman said today that the FC-1 program was in trouble because of “engine troubles” so this F-16s will be a godsend.
I’m told it will be 24 to 28 to start with and an option of 48 more. The offer essentially is open ended with no number limits.