What makes you think they would attack Guam? China’s more immediate targets would be to strike Taiwan which is much closer. Backfires heading to Guam would have been intercepted, and the damage you could would only be so little. Su-30s are in a much better position to protect themselves.

Knock out US airbases, know out the US’ ability to intervene in the Taiwan Strait.

Let me ask you another question. (I have seen some of your posts on other BBS and it was very impressive, which is why I direct my questions specifically at you. 😉 ) Do you think that the US could somehow get its F-22 to do a constant combat air patrol over the Taiwan Strait (with inflight refeuling)?

I don’t see anything on the Tu-22M3 that could refute AEGIS or carrier aerial escorts, with Super Hornets with AMRAAMs, much like Tomcats with Phoenixes.

It would need Flanker escorts and then it could drop cruise missiles.

China might need something bigger than the Krypton, but the Russians would never sell anything with a range of over 300km. This is due to the treaties they themselves have signed.

Shouldn’t China start working on that, even if it has to build its own? Another question for you. If US carriers go behind Taiwan and intervene in the Taiwan Strait (in a war scenario) do you think the Tu-16 can hit them?

Also another thing is that the PLA is rightly concentrating on greater numbers of fewer planes types, rather than dispersing its shock effectivity by having too many different plane types. Better to have a lot more squads of Su-30s or similarly classed aircraft than having a few Backfires.

Simply going with stealthy fighter bombers e.g. like the J-12 would be so much better.

That’s rational.

Not something that outdated.

What do you think is China’s best move for something to replace Tu-16? The new speculation on the Chinese version of Su-32?

When China considered Backfires back in the nineties, the Russian General Staff was opposed to it. Up to now, there are still officials in the Russian government that is still opposed to the sale of strategic weapons to China, considering China still a strategic competitor and potential enemy. The Chinese and the Russian export agency have built an entire arms procurement strategy based around this. The Chinese are not going to trust the Russians on such matters, fearing that the Russians would bug or cripple the aircraft.

In any case, the Chinese Tu-16s are merely used as cruise missile launchers. Backfires are not going to be better on this mediocre role.

China tends to avoid provocative arms purchases in trying to keep some sense of harmony with its neighbors. The Sovremannies, Kilos and the Su-30MKKs are enough to test the boundaries of these controversiality. They are not going to push this one level higher AKA by purchasing Slavas, Akulas, and Backfires.

As far as what the Chinese is going to do is to take a serious look at the aircraft (as if they’re buying it), but in reality are just gathering enough information to set the parameters for their own H-6 replacement.

Bombers are only as good as the stuff they carry. What do you propose that Chinese Backfires should carry to help deter US carrier groups? If that is the case, why can’t such missiles be already carried by Su-30MKKs, JH-7As or H-6s?

There are also many questions about logistics, service, and support. China seems happy enough with the Sovies and the Kilos but not on the Su’s. I don’t think the PLAAF would be willing to take the additional logistical burden of carrying a new plane and engine type. I also want to make clear to everyone on board that China never buys used and second hand stuff for their own armed service regardless of how many hours you have on the frame. They’re (the Chinese officials) are truly fixated on the idea that things they buy must always be new. This fixation is simply not a point to be questioned, discussed or debated. They want it that way and that’s final. (The only used stuff they buy either goes to the scrapyard or gets studied by engineers).

Before, it was the Chinese who knock on the Russians door to buy weapons. Now it’s the Russians knocking the Chinese doors to sell weapons. Huh? Are the Russians really concerned that the EU might actually lift its embargo?

crobato,

But don’t you think China would like to import a few just to get the engine technology and whatever other technologies it is interested in?